[a / b / c / d / e / f / g / gif / h / hr / k / m / o / p / s / t / u / v / vg / vm / vmg / vr / vrpg / vst / w / wg] [i / ic] [r9k / s4s / vip] [cm / hm / lgbt / y] [3 / aco / adv / an / bant / biz / cgl / ck / co / diy / fa / fit / gd / hc / his / int / jp / lit / mlp / mu / n / news / out / po / pol / pw / qst / sci / soc / sp / tg / toy / trv / tv / vp / vt / wsg / wsr / x / xs] [Settings] [Search] [Mobile] [Home]
Board
▼ Settings Mobile Home
/sci/ - Science & Math

Name
Options
Comment
Verification
4chan Pass users can bypass this verification. [Learn More] [Login]
File
  • Please read the Rules and FAQ before posting.
  • Additional supported file types are: PDF
  • Use with [math] tags for inline and [eqn] tags for block equations.
  • Right-click equations to view the source.

08/21/20New boards added: /vrpg/, /vmg/, /vst/ and /vm/
05/04/17New trial board added: /bant/ - International/Random
10/04/16New board for 4chan Pass users: /vip/ - Very Important Posts
[Hide] [Show All]


🎉 Happy Birthday 4chan! 🎉


[Advertise on 4chan]


File: 30592.jpg (76 KB, 473x709)
76 KB JPG
A bus comes every 60 minutes. You make your way at a random time to the bus stop. There is only a 1/60 chance it arrives within the exact minute of you arriving to the bus stop. There is also a 1/60 chance it leaves just as you get there. If you did this every day, for say 100 days, you will hit an average wait time of 30 minutes.

The odds are we arrived at the bus stop 30 minutes after the last and before the next. Right in the middle where the most points along the distribution would be. So if we were going to find another civilisation, the odds are, as there would be the most at 30 mins, and the fact that the odds are we are at the 30 mins too, we should be finding them now.

However, we cannot be at the end of the timeline as we would see civilisations accumulated from the distant past, plus the random popping in and out of existence of other ones before they could advance as much as the oldest ones, which some would have started as near to the one minute mark as possible, meaning at the begining only civilisations just beginning could have existed, and as we haven't seen evidence of what could be called hyper advanced civilisations, we probably aren't even in the midpoint, but in the early stages.


I'm confusing myself with the "maths" if you could call it that. Statistically, we should be finding other civilisations, but the odds of us being at the end is far far lower than the beginning, though the odds should be even.
>>
>>17071066
You sound like you are suffering from AI psychosis, a good cure for that would be a to read a book.



[Advertise on 4chan]

Delete Post: [File Only] Style:
[Disable Mobile View / Use Desktop Site]

[Enable Mobile View / Use Mobile Site]

All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective parties. Images uploaded are the responsibility of the Poster. Comments are owned by the Poster.