>>2880051
i am going to japan, china, and vietnam in october and I am worried about the same thing. original plan was to circumnavigate the globe but that requires a stop in DOH which is a bit too close to rebel groups with stingers for my taste, let alone the fuel shortages

>>2880051
For every faggit who wants to go, there are 10 faggits who are scared and forced to stay home. Muh fuel is a meme. If you aren't crossing the middle east flight price fomo is a nothing burger

>>2880051
>With looming kerosene shortages
the shortage is only regionally restricted to SEA and Oceania
Refineries only can process one type of oil and Gulf oil mainly went to SEA+EA+Oceania
countries like South Korea and Thailand are majorly fucked because their Kerosene was basically 100% gulf oil
countries like Japan or China have some alternatives

the rest you see is just price pressure
airline margins are thin
so carriers like Lufthansa cutting regional flights is not due to shortages, they just can't fly profitable anymore

>Or are international carriers safe?
kinda yes
but really depends on where you are going
Vietnam might be riskier than Europe or the Americas

>is it better to start planning to go ASAP
it's a gamble either way
no one knows
situation could stabilize -> prices go down
shortage persists and more competition -> prices go up

just booked a flight to China
surcharge for kerosene was ~200€ more than at the beginning of the year
not nothing, not dramatic

>>2880057
>japan, china
should both be fairly safe as long as you avoid short domestic flights

>>2880051
Ticket prices are going to keep increasing but if you can afford it the planes aren't going to stop, global trade demands flights continue no matter the cost.
As for Vietnam specifically there are a lot less flights between Saigon and Hanoi but you can catch the train if you can afford to lose 2 days.

>>2880089
>Ticket prices are going to keep increasing
why?
kerosene prices are fairly stable for the last 30days
even fallen a few percent

markets priced zero barrels of oil going through hormuz in march
carriers increased fare prices accordingly
now it slowly risen again in the past few weeks to about ~5% of normal and the current price reflects that it might open again soon

prices certainly won't fall, likely for years
but why would it increase further?
tickets are already at "hormuz oil supply cut off" prices

>>2880051
PLEASE DONALD STOP THE WAR.

I haven't been on a vacation in 10 years and my plane leaves June 1st. I want to go to Europe so bad.

PLEASE.

>>2880113
>June 1st. I want to go to Europe
you're fine (probably)
there are no real jet fuel shortages in Europe nor the US
yet

US produces enough domestically
Europe does not , but that depends on the country
UK imports like 60% from the middle east
EU as a whole "only" imports ~35% of it's kerosene by ship so naturally diversified and not all from the middle east

prices will go up because everyone competes for the ships left
as you already booked, price increases won't affect you
so I'd be relaxed

Airlines typically hedge their fuel prices. So they pay a bank just to keep the fuel price predictable and the bank has the risk of increased fuel price. Banks always make money even if they temporarily don't, so they'll keep the hedge rates high until they made back their losses.

Do expect high prices for flight tickets even if fuel prices go down.

>>2880093
The profit motive incentivises charging as much as possible, just like covid logistics costs were priced in within months we still saw profiteering continue to increase prices for years.

>>2880093
>kerosene prices are fairly stable for the last 30days
>even fallen a few percent
Futures or the actual price?

>>2880070
>Refineries only can process one type of oil and Gulf oil mainly went to SEA+EA+Oceania
>countries like South Korea and Thailand are majorly fucked because their Kerosene was basically 100% gulf oil
So my late July Asiana LAX to BKK flight isn't happening? When will they email me to make it official?

>>2880739
you already boughted the ticket retard. it's happening

>>2880748
Not necessarily, if fuel shortages get bad enough then airlines will have to start canceling flights. He won't be stranded though, they'd just move him to a different flight

>>2880581
>we still saw profiteering continue to increase prices for years
uh no!?
covid was like 5 different things (supply chain crunch, increased transport cost, money supply increase etc.) after one another, hardly a single moment
and while some did profiteering, the increases later were partly actually genuine

>>2880528
>Airlines typically hedge their fuel prices
depends on the airline
no big US carrier today hedges for more than 6months
the other extreme end like Singapore Airlines do up to 5 years
most are in the middle at 12-24months

>>2880051
yes

Could my return flight to America please be fucked? I really don't want to go back in two months and stroogle finding some wagecuck job in a bumfuck Midwest town that doesn't require a car commute, plus an overpriced rental room in some boomer's house with either ten million rules or a horrible filthy mess.

Got half a mind to get that TEFL (while in America) and teach English in Cambodia. Being a hardass autist I know the kids will respect me. I can live on less than $1000/month easily. So why not? I'll make so little money that ZOG won't even try collecting any taxes from me. And my savings are adequate enough.