This post is dedicated to Hermes.My old astrology teacher was an interesting man, and one of his insistences was to ignore combustion, that statistically, it doesn't matter. I've found myself curious: is that true? So I decided to compile a massive compendium of data with observable outcomes and test for myself. >The data:117,902 Kickstarter campaigns (2009-2026): success is measured by askign "did the project reach its funding goal?" (Baseline is ~63%)7,654 TV show premieres: did the show get renewed?Just so everyone's on the same page and working under the same definitions,>Cazimi: traditionally considered a supreme boost, wherein sa given planet is within 0-17 arcminutes of the Sun, it is said the planet conjoined to the Sun is in the Sun's heart and sitting in the throne. >Combust: a planet within ~8 degrees of the Sun, supposedly "burned up" and injured>Under the beams: a planet within 17 degrees (IIRC there is some disagreement here) but outside combustion, is mildly afflictedI tested the six visible planets (Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) across the above conditions, broken down by applying/separating, sign, house, and whether the combust planet is the chart lord.The results may surprise you
>>42540558Here's the table for Kickstarter only. In this chart, a positive number means combustion helps, (inverted from tradition) and a negative number means it hurts.Surprisingly, Jupiter is the only planet where combustion consistently causes calamnity; every other planet is either null (no differnece) or weakly inverted (combustion helps). Moon, Mars, and Saturn are null, but Mercury and Venus combust is a slight boon!Tradition treats combustion as universally destructive, but according to the data this only applies to Jupiter. You would think the greater benefic would be the one planet immune to such things, but I guess not.
>Breaking down the results furtherCombustion hurting Jupiter's operation was consistent through every test I tried:Global: Jupiter combust = -4.0pp (OR 0.85, p<.0001).Under the beams was slightly better = -2.1pp (OR 0.91, p=0.0003).Applying vs separating: Jupiter applying in combustion = -4.8pp (OR 0.817, p<.0001) was slightly worse than Jupiter separating from combustion = -2.8pp (OR 0.889, p=0.0016).Traditionally we would say Jupiter applying in combustion is worse than separating, and tradition is correct here. What about Jupiter as chart lord? Jupiter combust as significator = -6.1pp (OR 0.776, p=0.000066, n=1,029). Fascinatingly, the effect gets worse when Jupiter is the lord of the first.I also tested an orb gradient (varying the distance) by measuring Jupiter's distance from the Sun in bands (Table 2)The results are consistent through all 12 degrees, although the gradient isn't smooth. We see roughly uniform negativity at -3.3 to -4.7pp across the entire zone, then at 12-17 degrees, the results snaps back to baseline performance. I find this rather curious, and there's 2 ways to approach this result:>1. The traditional 17-degree under the beams boundary is too wide for Jupiter>2. Under the beams is invalid in principle(2) begets testing, which you will find below.Most interestingly, is that cazimi is also negative for Jupiter! Tradition dictates Jupiter cazimi as positive, but we see -3.3pp. Mind, these results are insignificant by themselves (n=277, p=0.255), but the direction remains staunchly negative, in other words, Cazimi is entirely harmful for Jupiter.Table 2 is attached
>>42540579What about other planets?>How does fair Venus respond? Venus responds amazingly to cazimi: +4.8pp (OR 1.23, p=0.015, n=633). She is the one planet that responds as tradition would expect, however, Venus combust is null (+0.8pp, p=0.051). Furthermore, Venus under the beams is inverted from traditional expectations: (+1.7pp, p<.0001). Her orb gradient gets weird (Table 3)Venus conjoined to Sol in any capacity is better than freed (e.g., 17-30 degrees), where we see -3.7pp. That's... interesting, opposite of what the astrologers of olde tolde us. A conjunction to Venus is helpful in every way, with Cazimi being the peak. The exception being Venus combust in Libra: -7.0pp (OR 0.748, p<.0001, n=1,509). Combustion decimates Libra Venus, however, Venus Taurus sees +1.2pp (n=1,416). It is traditionally siad that being in their "chariot" (combust in own sign) is helpful, but that isn't the case here. Curiously, it's specifically the Venus-ruled-sign where the Sun finds ill-dignity. Fascinating.
>>42540586>What of Mercury? Mercury cazimi results in -3.4pp (OR 0.80, p=0.027, n=1,017), meaning the heart of the Sun hurts Mercury. However, Mercury combust is weakly positive at +0.8pp (p=0.023, helps), and Mercury under the beams is +1.0pp (p=0.001). As usual, we find Mercury behaving tricky!>Orb tests (Table 4)We see moderate distance from the Sun (3-12 degrees) is best, at least for this data set, and being "free" from the Sun at 17-30 degrees is actually slightly harmful. Hermes and Helios are friends, just as the mythology says! Just make sure they're not too close :)Dignity aids combust Mercury, although the effect is Virgo-specific (+4.1pp, p=0.0001); Mercury Gemini combust is null (+0.3pp).It's worth noting that Mercury is always close to the Sun (maximum ~28 degrees), so his "free" category remains narrower than other planets'. However, the relationship between Mercury and the Sun is the opposite of what traditional astrology would tell us... for the most part!>Saturn is InterestingSaturn combust, as Lord of the Ascendant returns +4.6pp (OR 1.223, p=0.014, n=709). Saturn combust as significator is better; applying combust: +2.1pp (OR 1.096, p=0.037), separating: null (-0.1pp).>Okay, but why?One explanation is that combustion suppresses a planet's nature. For Jupiter, suppressing beneficence;, for Saturn, suppressing malice. In other words, the Sun burns away whatever the planet's natural tendencies, although we traditionally think of planets conjunct the Sun as embodyment. Combustion isn't bad, per se, it's just suppressing, and as astrologers it's our job to put that to use. What gets suppressed is what matters.
>>42540595>Do houses make a difference? Yes, actually! Every planet favors particular houses (Table 5 and 6):>Starred = p<0.05:For your convienence, the most noteworthy results from the above table: - Mercury combust H7: +13.7pp (p=0.0003).- Venus combust H7: +16.1pp (p=0.0007). - Mercury combust H10: +23.3pp (p=0.002). - Mercury combust H6: +5.4pp (p=0.01). - Venus combust H5: -5.2pp (p=0.014). - Jupiter combust H6: +11.8pp (p=0.01).TV is a mixed bag, although I find it interesting that H7 the house of the audience is radically positive, specifically for TV premieres. In other notes, H5 (Venus' Joy) being negative replicates for TV, and KS' H12 positivity is absent from TV, and we also see several results flip direction. This is why we test multiple data sets.>What about signs? We've got some absolutely WILD numbers here: Mars Aries: +27.2pp (OR 5.34, n=480). Mars Taurus: +26.6pp (OR 5.01, n=444). These numbers are fucking ENORMOUS and span 2012-2026 (n spread across multiple launch cohorts), so it's not a single-year fluke. Do the results replicate on TV? Mars Aries combust on TV = +5.2pp (n=46, null, p=0.48) Yes, but significantly underpowered compared to KS! For comparison, Mars Taurus comust (TV) n=27, SR=0.185, delta=-0.2pp (null, baseline @ 0.188). The low n limits the significance here, so don't take it to seriously, although it's interesting nonetheless. Saturn Aries combust: +28.9pp (OR 6.56, n=121). >Note: Saturn Aries only happened once (as this is being written) in our dataset window, so n=121 all comes from one transit. There's insufficient data to determine validity, but to compare: Saturn Sagittarius combust is -15.9pp (n=869) & Capricorn -4.2pp (n=574).
>>42540602Jupiter Leo: -22.4pp (OR 0.40, n=1,079, p<.0001). All 1,079 charts fell in Leo 0-10°, so I couldn't test Jupiter combust in his own decan (10-20°), so the question of minor dignity as a mitigating factor is up for debate as far as Jupiter is concerned. Detriment certainly doesn't help: Jupitercombust in Virgo: -17.4pp (OR 0.49, n=623, p<.0001), and Capricorn is -10.0pp (n=206).Jupiter combustis negative in almost every sign, but does dignity help? Jupiter combust in Cancer returns -2.5pp, which is weakly harmful (n=1,039), Sagittarius finds a null result, -0.1pp, (n=320). , and Pisces interestingly nets positive at +6.5pp, (n=379, p=0.01). Ergo, essential dignitiy does protect Jupiter, as combustion is null to positive in these signs, while peregrine and ill dignified signs return significant negative results.>chart lord combust and cazimi (Table 7)Most of this is null, but curiously Jupiter and Saturn show up again... Jupiter as signifcator combust is the worst (-6.1pp), but Saturn sees +4.6pp. Everything else is functionally null to weakly positive.For cazimi, results are mostly underpowered or null, however Jupiter cazimi as chart Lord trends -18.1pp (OR 0.479, p=0.069, n=29). That's a small n so not significant, but fascinatingly fits the pattern of Jupiter consistently harmed by the Sun.
>>42540607>Applying v separating (Table 8)Tradition states an applying conjunction to the Sun is worse than separatingWe discussed Jupiter above.Mars applying returns -1.3pp (p=0.079), but separating is +1.9pp (p=0.011), so for Mars, application is harmful, but separation is fortunate. Yeah, I could see that thematically. Venus and Mercury are similar: both see positive effects when separating (+1.9pp and +0.9pp). It is said that a planet separating from the Sun is "injured but recovering" (IIRC) but the results look promising. Saturn is curious: applying +2.1pp (p=0.037);, separating, null; i.e., the Sun approaching Saturn burns away malice up to perfection.
>>42540612>TV (Table 9)Unfortunately I only have 7,654 RR A premiere charts, which is too few to test combustion specifically. However, for the curious, here's what we've got:Jupiter combust doesn't replicate on TV, but n=389 is too small for a -4pp effect to reach significance, however it's worth noting the direction is actually wrong (+2.2pp), but insignificant nonetheless. Mars as significator, combust, shows +11.8pp (n=82, p=0.010)... interesting, but a small n.The TV data can't confirm or deny most of our results due to a low chart pool, so one cannot argue whether Jupiter's combustion performance is Kickstarter-specific but the results are interesting nonetheless.
>>42540617>Okay, so how can I use this? For elections: - avoid Jupiter combust (within ~12 degrees of the Sun), because that's consistently -4.0pp or -6.1pp with him as chart lord. If you MUST and CAN'T WAIT, Jupiter applying combust is worse than separating and if Jupiter rules the ASC, the effect doubles.- Luna and Mars: don't worry about them, they're null on every test... still, you may not want to launch during eclipses and maybe Moon separating (+1.5pp) would be better- Saturn combust: null, except Saturn as significator (+4.6pp). - Mercury near the Sun seems fine or slightly beneficial, except Cazimi.- Venus cazimi (+4.8pp) is surprisingly positive, and Venus near the Sun at any distance is better than Venus freed, so "avoid Venus combust" is *probably* wrong, except in Libra.>TL;DR get to the pointTraditional doctrine on combustion is *mostly* wrong, only Jupiter is consistently injured by the Sun (-4.0pp; -6.1pp as significator), Mercury cazimi hurts but Mercury combust is positive, Venus cazimi helps, combustion too at all distances, except in Libra (-7.0pp), and Saturn combust as signifcator sees the Sun supress malice. Luna and Mars are completely null.
Bump
Okay, help me out here: a Cazimi and a Combust are the same things? I have Sun exalted in Aries at 0 degrees and Saturn conjunct MC at 16 degrees. This tangentially applies to me (and based on Saturn conjunct MC, apparently right in the maybe bad or maybe good zone). Help me out here. I'm struggling to understand if this is good or bad.
Can I get a QRD? TL;DR? can you speak slow like im a neanderthal?
>>42541824>usually, when sun near other planet, sometimes bad and sometimes good>big number means more likely good>small number means more likely bad>anon say that small number only bad for the Jupiter planet>kickstarter data supports it
>>42541841Small number good for p value tho, grug. Small p only jupy hence why jupy pipi big importo
>>42541872Ah, that's the gap I have in understanding then. Please remind us what the p value indicates, anon. I'd assumed p value was some generic positive indicator leading to cazimi good until it becomes a combust and then bad. I suppose that's why my reduction left out whatever it is you're saying I forgot to mention. Also, I'm learning astrology and only just learned what a Cazimi is within the last few days, so this was a fun thread for me.
>>42541909>statistical significanceIn table 1, the moon has +4.5 for cazimi (huge difference). But since the p-value is wayy above 0.001, we can't rule out that it was just random noise or a statistical accident. (OP doesn't tell us what alpha he used, but it seems to be <0.0005)I also did not know anything about cazimi or combustion up until a few minutes ago.
>>42541963So there's tight statistical variance for Jupiter, giving us good data to support only his Combust status compelling (or not) fertile business timelines. Other planets seem less effected by a Combustion, but there is meaningful statistical variance in the data. I think this is what we're leaning.To be fair, this is pretty niche data. We're going relatively deep on both Financial Statistics and Astrology here, outside of laymen territory. Overall, the point here is Combustions and Cazimis do not have reliable dichotomous boons and hindrances tied to transits. As anon stated:>LunaData is null.>MercuryMercury doesn't like Cazimi but does like Combustion.>VenusVenus enjoys both Cazimi and Combustion (except Libra).>MarsData is null.>JupiterJupiter is hurt reliably by both Cazimi and Combustion.>SaturnSlightly more nuanced: Combustion reduces Saturn's typical malefic tendencies.(please feel free to correct me)
I heard that venus and mercury are good when conjuct the sun because they are used to being close to the sun, weird that saturn combustion is also null thoughthis makes me feel happier about my birthchart (saturn/mercury/venus/sun conjuction in leo)
>>42540558Would be nice to know how you accounted for multiple comparisons, possible confounders and seasonal correlations. Otherwise, who cares. Obviously also your whole methodology in general.
>>42540558>one of his insistences was to ignore combustion, that statistically, it doesn't matter.That sort of makes sense to me. Because of the conservation of energy combustion does not consume energy, it just moves it around space.
>>42542049I would have assumed that any statistically significant phenomenon, be it combustion or not, does not violate the law of conservation of energy. Hm.
How do you exactly base this on TV and Kickstarter, if I'm not retarded and got it right? Also the House table is weird, Moon has its joy in 3H but your value is negative. Venus in 5H, etc Why?
Isn't Cazimi symbolically relevant only for Moon, Venus and Mercury, since they would sit "in front" of the Sun?The rest of the planets would be completely hidden behind it
>>42545138>>42545184>astrology falling apart at the seams
>>42545211why
