After seeing the new chinese video model (seedance 2.0), I'm completely blackpilled.I think 2d and 3d animation and visual effects work are going to be over in ~5 years. You'll have a handful of senior, legacy people, mostly in comp for clean up, but I think everyone else is toast.There'll be a short transition period, where you'll have VFX departments that are mostly comPrompters (already happening), but those positions won't last long.It's actually over.
>>1025617It's not happening. Some parts of VFX maybe will be replaced with AI but anything that needs art direction and precise changes will remain. The doomer narrative is just a way to repackage fomo and get you to subscribe to them
>>1025617What was your last passion project?
>>1025632i think the tooling for art direction and edits is improving, and ultimately will offer enough control that clients will be okay with the end result. plus i think standards will drop a little; the thing about the slot-machine nature of the tools is that they eventually lull you into settling.i think the >i need control over every pixelis mostly artist-autism. we've all been in dumbass client feeback loops where you're on version 38 of something and none of it really matters, but the client just wants to feel like they had some say over the end-result>>1025634i'm 40, the passion left my body a long time ago
>>1025636>and ultimately will offer enough controlIf the Ai tools will offer enough control to meaningfully edit the result, then you end up with a software/interface complex enough that it won't be just "proompting" anymore and you're back to needing specialists. If the "anyone can do it, just tell it what you want" schtick continues, you will never be able to edit the output in a meaningful way.A lot of the hype for AI is manufactured by the people pushing it. Don't get me wrong, it's here to stay for sure, but the doomer narrative is way overblown imo. In all fields, not just creative ones. The only ones who will truly be affected are low skill "experts", people who knew barely enough to get by.
>>1025637the scenario you describe is the scenario i'm describing - but you're replacing entire departments with one guy and a copy of nuke
>>1025638There will be downsizing for sure, but only if the Ai models improve to what they tell you they might. 1-2 guys per department instead of whole teams, overseeing the AI output and maybe manually doing only the things like main characters. This is in my opinion what's to be expected if everything goes along the lines the tech bros say they will. There is also a significant chance that there won't be much more meaningful progress, and the Ai bubble will pop somewhere this year or next year.
>>1025640https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW_odt7uZTsi think ^ model + the right tooling + an upscaler model is probably capable of being deployed for a number of things now. i think the storyboard > anime results in particular are good enough for production now. the playbast > render result is also impressive enough that you can see it at a minimum in pre-viz.the new generation of models from google and openai will probably be a little better than this and they'll push hard to build tooling for studios because it helps launder their reputations.it's very hard to say right now that model progress will stall when you keep getting shit like this every 6 months.
>>1025636I'm 45 and my best passion projects were made in the last 5 years
>>1025643i was like half-kidding, i've done some freelance stuff lately for not a lot of money that i've liked the results of - i like the work i'm putting out, but i think it's a combination of burnout and then shit like pic-related get churned out with zero effort is... i dunno anymore mangmaybe it's time to get into basket-weaving for realsies
>>1025636>i'm 40, the passion left my body a long time agoWell there's your problem
What can you actually generate with the 5 free credits you get from seedance? There's no way to get more without paying, right?I just want Churchill and Stalin in realistic style(?) having a Dragonball Z fight. After exchanging blows they back off and Churchill charges a Kamehameha with a USA flag and American eagle behind him, and Stalin charges a final flash with the USSR flag and Laika the dog behind him. They fire their attacks and they clash, destroying Europe.is that so wrong?
>>1025645Garbage with garbage pacing. If I was this in the middle of an anime I'd think I'm having a stroke. Don't miss the forest for the trees, the model is only "better than artists" if it can make better things than artists can make. It doesn't matter if it can make "stuff" faster, what matters is if it captures people's attention.And from my experience, nobody cares about these gens except for enthusiasts, stupid children (as in, children that are stupid. smart children are obsessed with lost media and shit, and couldn't hate genAI more) and shills.You should only be worried about your career if you catch *yourself* watching this stuff instead of other media. In fact, you should be worried about more than your career, because if you spend more than 4 minutes a day watching genned media you're probably retarded.
>>1025617currently in video game those ai generated video have no effect, 0 impactbut then that means going into video game which is a terrible industry
>>1025645You're just fishing for excuses to give up
>>1025617It's been over for a long time with shipping everything to cheap houses in India and SEA
>>1025617kek
>>1025747It's followed the prompt, bro. The user asked for all that in a 15s clip and it gave it to them.Im sorry but the people coping now sound more unhinged than the AI will make full movies in 2 more weeks peopleThe quality is good enough and price low enough that studios will expect a transition budgets will get slashed to nothingYou cannot compete with the infinite slop machineAlso it does digital humans better than anything humans have managed to do
>>1025762What are you talking about? The clip you posted looks like shit. You're unhinged if you think these "results" are entertaining. If you think "looks exactly like something else" is entertaining, again, you're either a child or retarded. Works well for porn tho, get back to me when there's an uncensored version in 6 years.Honestly bro, the only people who are struggling to cope with AI gens have shit taste and would never make it as an indie artist with their current mindset anyway. Look at stuff like vivziepop, smiling friends, etc. Try to understand how those projects make actual money, then come back to this problem. If your dream was to work for an ad agency or industry clients, yeah you're probably fucked cuz VC firms are completely duped into thinking people want to watch this stuff.
>>1025765you've going to have a really bad fucking time over the next couple of years, manthere's no point even talking to people like you, it'll be undeniable soon
>>1025766Sure thing bud. Judging by this thread, you're *already* having a pretty bad time. I'm actually having a great time working in gamedev, I've made a lot of friends and make a substantial income.You don't sound like someone who actually makes art for a living or has worked in any industry, and you've provided no evidence of that fact. Frankly, you just read like a shill, or one of those wierd autistic people who "hate" artists trying to larp. I'd like to see some work you've actually done, if you're an amateur it makes sense that you'd be anxious about this stuff, it's called imposter syndrome and it effects most artists. If you want to actually "understand" why you shouldn't be worried about Seedance 2.0 or whatever, we'd have to start there.
>>1025767>I'm actually having a great time working in gamedevoh so you don't actually know anything then.i'm not doxxing myself here just make you happy bro; maybe post some of your work for us since you seem to think you're some of elite artist who'll never be replaced
>>1025768How about I cum on your face instead and the matter is settled?
>>1025769i can pencil you in for next friday, i'm all booked up till then. does that work for you?
>>1025771Yeah. I can teach you with my dick how to be one of these *elite artists* that I'am buddy. I guarantee I mog 99% of people in here and you're just schizoing about AI in your schizo chamber.
>>1025772i'm sure clozzy could framemog you, bruh
>>1025773I framemog your mother and I ride your dad in bed.
>>1025768If you're worried about doxxing post a wip or something you never published, faggot. If all you can post is slop you're a shill
>>1025775i'm houdini knitting anon from >>1019943you can read my blog in that thread
They will still need workers for the foreseeable future, but I can't see them hiring first worlders for too long. Malaysia and India have a minimum wage of just under $2 per hour. AI seems like a cover to reduce political backlash over outsourcing (while still charging higher prices for first world customers).
>>1025780It's worse than that, for a lot of Indians 200$ a month is a livable wage. I've seen job postings from Indian studios on Linkedin for "highly skilled seniors" roles for 400$ monthly salary. Offshoring to 3rd world shitholes where the cost of living is near zero has killed the VFX industry way before AI even had a crack at it
>>1025789Chud.
>>1025790
kurt cobain as arthas on the frozen throne the camera slowly zooms out from his face>no celebritieswhateverOMG THIS IS BETTER THAN THE ORIGINAL WITH ONLY ONE PROMPTif your a legitimate professional youve done work with AI and know its a fucking nightmare to work with and you end up doing 1000x the work for the same result.
ok garrosh hellscream fighting some pandaren warriors on the orgrimmar rampartsOMG JUST LIKE A MOVIE WITH ONLY ONE PROMPT
>>1025794>>1025795>deevidgood job falling for a scam, lilbrubytedance hasn't given third parties access to the model yetapi access starts on the 24th
I think art jobs in film and games will be mostly like storyboarding and previsualization, with simple 3D models and effects and then generate final the pixels based on the previs timing and composition. So the actual rendering is done mostly by an AI instead of brute forced ray tracing.
>>1025806Doubtful. Maybe in films they could use AI as a instagram filter but by its nature AI is not directable. No chance it happens in games
Dude people say this all the time, but I use AI Models of all kinds, switching whenever new models come out for the “best” one for my tasks. I use it to troubleshoot Blender and learn about technology, new skills etc.I don’t know if people are aware but these models are fucking retards that hallucinate midway through a task almost every time. Maybe it’s admittedly user error? I’m not a wizard with it…But trying to imagine myself create full models with armatures set up, rigs, etc. with an AI modal through fucking words and then make multiple iterations with it until the vision is complete makes me want to kill myself. Every time I see a new article about how this new AI model makes the best Brad Pitt renders on the market, but every actual use case that is productive I could think of is like pulling teeth or just can’t be done yet.
>>1025819Imagine for a second you are about to go into a movie and then you read an article saying they used AI for some scenes. What do you think the public’s reaction would be? I believe it would be an empty movie theatre and will continue to be even with the prominence of AI slop. People are still hard-headed about separating what they consume scrolling their phone (AI Okay Sometimes), and what they consume on a TV/Movie/Monitor screen (absolutely never) because internally the big screen should be “more expensive quality” in retard American Brain Standards.I say all this to say, maybe there will be a few years where companies try to push this horseshit more and more which we are in now; but people won’t bite and it will bite these companies asses eventually either through the collapse of the gluttonous AI’s existence itself, or people spending their dollar elsewhere/less often. White-pilled but I think ingenuity will always win out because people want actually cool shit, not just cool shit on paper.
The amount of vfx artists needed will certainly decrease, probably somewhere around 60% is my guess. The tools will definitely change, previz visuals will probably serve as skeletons for the AI to do their thing and then you'll just do some manual cleanup
Even normies were impressed by it, it's over. Cope all you like, won't change what's about to come
>>1025843You said that 2 years ago
>>1025617The only thing that will change is a 15 minute animation that took 3 years to make will now take 1 year to make. And that's a good thing. Everything else will stay the same.
>>1025852according to the lack of jobs, you're wrong.patrician veterans can't find a fucking job.AI is already doing damage, and it's going to get worse.
>>1025957They're not losing their jobs because of AI lmao. They're losing their jobs because hollywood is dying and AAA gaming is pumping out hot garbage. They were losing their jobs before AI even took off.
>>1025957> if it wasn't for this dastardly ai concord would sell!!!
>>1025617So is it just me or did the aggro shilling of seedance on 4chinz completely fall off in less than a week’s time?t. /co/fag, it’s been funny how the round-the-clock astroturfing there bombed ever since the shitfest that was GPT5 a while back
>>1025960cope
>bot spacing
>>1025970>flips around>front snaps to the backtwo more weeks I guess lol
