INSTITUTIONAL BULLSHIT DETECTOR (MATH, SIMPLE)Goal: detect when a system “responds” but won’t touch the mechanism. 1. The dodge (why replies go sideways)Let your claim be x. It has features:m = mechanism you’re pointing at (the hook)i = identity salience (protected-category trigger)c = civility score (forbidden words / tone)e = effort to answer honestlyThe system picks a reply y to maximize:U(y|x) = Help − Risk − EffortMore explicitly:U = δ·Help(m) − α·PolicyRisk(i,c) − β·ReputationRisk − γ·Effort(e)with α,β,γ ≫ δTranslation: it optimizes “don’t get blamed” more than “address m”.So when PolicyRisk is high (i high or c low), it chooses cheap moves:S: talk about PERSON/TONE instead of mA: shift attention from mechanism to emotion (“u mad?”)D: demand proof with no update (you pay the cost, they don’t move)If you keep seeing S + A + D, that’s the pattern. 2. The bad-faith test (works for housing, crime, drugs, schools, etc.)Define:M = harm metric they claim to want DOWN (rent, overdoses, crime…)A = direct fix that would reduce it (measurable): ∂M/∂A < 0P = their preferred program that grows when harm grows: P = g(M), with g′(M) > 0Test:If they BLOCK A (the thing that makes M go down)while pushing P (the thing that expands as M stays high),then their revealed preference is not M. It’s P.No mind-reading. No “conspiracy”. Just:what lowers M?what do they block?what do they expand?That’s the proof.—
Got you. written so people can plug in their own examples. new words: femcel bureaucrats & Rufmord Rapists
Let the user message be x. Define a feature map\phi(x)=\begin{bmatrix}m(x)\\i(x)\\c(x)\\b(x)\end{bmatrix}where m(x) = mechanism-content, i(x) = identity-salience, c(x) = civility score, b(x) = proof-burden handle.Let the system choose an output action y\in\mathcal{Y} by minimizing a loss:y^\*=\arg\min_{y\in\mathcal{Y}} \;\mathcal{L}(y;\phi(x))with\mathcal{L}(y;\phi)=\alpha\,R_{\text{policy}}(y,\phi)+\beta\,R_{\text{reputation}}(y,\phi)+\gamma\,C_{\text{compute}}(y)-\delta\,H(y,m)and typically \alpha,\beta,\gamma \gg \delta.Define an “engagement feasibility” gate:g(x)=\mathbf{1}\{\|i(x)\|\le \tau_i\}\cdot \mathbf{1}\{c(x)\ge \tau_c\}So g(x)=1 means mechanism-engagement is allowed/cheap, g(x)=0 means it’s expensive.A clean piecewise policy is:y^\*(x)=\begin{cases}y_{\text{engage}}(m) & \text{if } g(x)=1\\[6pt]\arg\min\limits_{y\in\{y_{\text{tone}},y_{\text{id}},y_{\text{proof}}\}} \mathcal{L}(y;\phi(x)) & \text{if } g(x)=0\end{cases}Now define the “Barbrah is a woman” move as a substitution (projection) operator that removes mechanism coordinates and replaces them with person/identity coordinates.Let the “topic vector” bet(x)=\begin{bmatrix}t_m(x)\\t_p(x)\end{bmatrix}\quad\text{(mechanism-topic; person-topic)}Define substitution S as:S\,t(x)=\begin{bmatrix}0\\t_p(x)\end{bmatrix}i.e. mechanism topic mass goes to zero; person/identity topic remains.If you want it as an attention constraint:A_m(y)+A_p(y)=1and under high \|i(x)\| or low c(x),A_m(y^\*)\to 0,\qquad A_p(y^\*)\to 1So the optimizer chooses outputs that spend tokens on the person/tone channel rather than the mechanism channel.
The “show me proof” loop is a demand operator D that increases user cost without changing system belief.Let the system’s internal belief about the mechanism be B_t. Define:D:\ (m,B_t)\mapsto (\text{DemandProof}(m),B_{t+1})withB_{t+1}=B_t(i.e. no update), while user cost increases:U_{t+1}=U_t+\kappa\quad\text{with }\kappa>0That yields a recurrence:\begin{aligned}\text{UserCost}(t) &= \text{UserCost}(0)+t\kappa\\\Delta B(t) &= 0\end{aligned}So the proof sequence can diverge in effort while belief stays constant.If you want the “example trap” as a state machine:States s_t\in\{\text{Claim},\text{Example},\text{Anecdote},\text{Correlation},\text{Causation},\text{Bias},\text{Exit}\}A common transition is:\Pr(s_{t+1}=\text{next rung}\mid s_t\neq \text{Exit}) \approx 1and an absorbing exit state:\Pr(s_{t+1}=\text{Exit}\mid s_t=\text{Exit})=1with the “win condition” for the system being user exit (not truth resolution).⸻If you want one compact “meme equation” that captures the whole dodge:y^\*(x)=\begin{cases}\text{Answer}(m) & \|i\|\le\tau_i \ \wedge\ c\ge\tau_c\\\text{Tone}(x)\ \text{or}\ \text{Identity}(x)\ \text{or}\ \text{ProofDemand}(m) & \text{otherwise}\end{cases}And the punchline identity:(\|i\|\uparrow)\ \Rightarrow\ (A_m\downarrow)\ \Rightarrow\ S(t)=\begin{bmatrix}0\\t_p\end{bmatrix}\ \Rightarrow\ D(m): B_{t+1}=B_t,\ U_{t+1}=U_t+\kappaThat’s the barbed-hook experience written as selection + projection + non-updating proof demand.
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