Here we go again edition.Kinda crazy how confident the market was going into the weekend. The Iranians were saying all along that Trump's talk about a deal was a lie and they hadn't agreed to anything.
>>24228133This shit is impossible to predict.
Hopefully miners get another dip. Oil going back to $120 for a week or so would be great
I said this a couple of threads ago and now people are starting to notice. We should figure out the fertilizer to oil ratio and make a play on ithttps://x.com/i/status/2045462750084669707
>>24228184Tell me about the fertilizer to oil rato. What does the two have to do with each other?
What do you guys think about Vizsla silver?
>>24228144Just assume everything Trump says is a lie. Iran and the US aren't even talking, it's all going through Pakistan who don't seem to be telling both sides the same things.>>24228145inshallah
>>24228857I bought some after the turdworldly incident with their workers. I am guessing the fundamentals remain, but a bit risky
>>24228889Not even going to try predicting it desu, just sitting tight in GPG waiting for people to stop selling the news and Coeur or NFG to buy us out.Time in the market beats timing the market, whippersnapper.
>>24229183Stock picking miners is not "the market". Timing is important.
Lithiumbros.........it's overhttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260416032604.htm
>>24228829One is used to make the other. Either fertilizer is too expensive or oil is too cheap
>>24229717>>24228829natgas is used to make nitrate fertilizers, but oil is not. Natgas supply is somewhat related to oil supply as a byproduct in shale especially, but I don't think oil/fertilizer ratio will tell you anything actionable. Natgas markets are very different globally, but maybe global LNG / nitrtate fertilizer ratio could tell you which is cheaper or expensive relative to one another... but since that LNG (natgas) is used in other industries too, particularly in power plants, it's probably a sloppy ratio.
>>24229724https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22646-strait-of-hormuz-troubles-weighing-on-fertilizer-supply-prices#:~:text=Disruption%20of%20shipping%20in%20the,sulfur%20exports%20transit%20the%20corridor.For some reason I thought we used petroleum.
>>24229183>GPGWhat is your realistic buyout target?
>>24229734You are partially correct actually. Sour crude oil, when refined, yields sulphur as a byproduct. That sulphur is then used for example in urea which is a fertilizer. But sulphur can also be produced from other sources, for example in metal refineries.
>>24230704Yeah the urea was the issue. Uncle Sam rolled back the DEF requirements so the artificial demand for urea will be lessened to help ease the price (eventually).
>>24228857Colossal fuck up, the silver might be there in the ground but good luck getting anyone to dig it up
something big is about to happen
>>24231330>something big
>>24231330That guy is a retard, you are jinxing it
>>24231374He's loyal to Trump, don't agree 100% with all his takes on the war but in 100% agreement on Snowline
>>24229183Time in the market
>>24229183Beats timing the market
>>24231435>>24231437Kek
>>24230556$1.2/share is around US$100/oz in the ground, that seems super cheap for these high quality ounces and a level that should be reachable even without a buyout.G2 Goldfields was just bought out for US$600/oz, so even US$200-300/oz should be possible outcomes. The ounces are high quality but there will be some discount to for example G2 as they can probably permit and get into production very quickly while it will take longer for GPG with some permitting risk as well I suppose.
Gary says>https://x.com/i/status/2045899033676591148
>>24231435>>24231437Yeah I would never buy the index, especially in this industry. That's for noobs, I'm a pro investor.
>>24231800That has a lot of time apparently.
Oil better have moved up a lot more than this by the time I wake up.
>>24231800How much bayhorse did you buy?
>>24232610Zero I'm afraid. Waiting for first production in 2045 before I go all in.
>>24228133evening all how are things?i ve been in the middle of a house build an move, anything major going on i miss? I saw Bunker Hill is gearing up for operating which was great news to see.
>>24232376Everything is gonna be green now the war is over.
is it too late to invest in miners?
>>24233294Just wait for the next dip in the miners when oil goes up again. You can buy some GPG in the meantime if you have FOMO, that company is probably going to be acquired by a competitor in the near future.
>>24232754The US has seized an Iranian ship and Israel is actively "creating a buffer zone" in Lebanon. There is no ceasefire and the wars are far from over. Oil should be well over $100 this morning don't these people care about my trades?
Impressive acquisition of Rupert and Aurion by Agnico. I had wondered how the two could ever merge but it just required big brother to come in and sort it all out.
>>24233425Only bought 340 shares in Rupert, but nice to get a win. Sell the news or keep the shares and let them become Agnico shares?
>>24233425Also do you know if Firefox is a buy? Seeing some speculation they might be bought too
>>24233482I believe it's an all cash deal actually.>>24233490I have watched Firefox on and off in the past few years. Frankly I don't believe it to be a takeover ready company. They have some proper drill intercepts nearby Aurion/Rupert land but it's definitely mostly just leftovers of the deposit for now. While Aurion and Rupert built proper projects, Firefox hasn't been able to convince me that they have a mine on their hands. Maybe in the next bull cycle who knows.
>>24233425>>24233482>Rupert 67% premium from Friday close >Aurion 46% premium from Friday close Nice to see the M&A party heating up and excellent job to bros holding shares! I missed these 2 but do have B2Gold that will benefit toohttps://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/743-tsx/bto/201525-b2gold-announces-agreement-to-sell-its-70-interest-in-fingold-joint-venture-to-agnico-eagle-for-us-325-million-b2gold-and-agnico-eagle-to-enter-into-nunavut-collaboration-agreement.html
>>24233633The reason I didn't own them was because neither agreed to a merger. Both companies' shareholders were expecting an unreasonable deal so I wanted to wait for a merger first. Happy about Agnico skipping a step and just going in.
I actually owned some B2G but rotated that money into GPG instead, oh well. I am very tempted to use my spare cash to add more into buyout candidates now regardless of the overall metal / oil volatility
>>24233640Logical, but you do own Snowline and our premium will top 70% for this dream deposit
>>24233633If you include the contingent payments of $3/share it's more than 100% premium for Rupert. Nice to see M&A heating up.
I've been just crabbing all of 2026
>>24233697>100%NICE! HOLY JAPAN WAGMI
>>24233778Definitely bullish for SGD with another project off the market also somewhat in the same bracket.Also worth noting that Rupert was bought out at a valuation of US$500/oz and that is excluding the contingent payments. Another big valuation takeout.
Bought some more potential buyouts including FinEx which is a small explorer with adjacent property to Agnico in Finland. Just seems like a good bet
NFG secures $205M Queensway production financing, Sprott in for another $20M. At-market pricing, relatively moderate dilution for raising significant growth capital. Happy to see NFGC currently up over 5% todayhttps://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2830-tsx-venture/nfg/201542-new-found-gold-announces-205m-finance-package.html
GPG saars.. is it beginning?
>>24234280Dollartown is calling...
>>24234280WAGMI
Anybody done a welfare check on the fondlers lately?
more Burkina Faso nationalization. They just decreed that $175M is a fair price for an added 25% stake in WAF's Kiaka mine.lol
Portfolio is just crabbing
I hope you all got some cash to buy the dip when zog resumes the war.
>>24236019>resumes the warit never stopped. but yeah I cashed up.
>>24235741Africa is trash. Makes more sense in a lower gold environment, with gold heading to 5k+ good jurisdictions make a lot more sense.
This whole entire year has been ass cancer since February
>>24236040I like Cote d'Ivoire a lot. Great rocks and a relatively supportive jurisdiction. I expect more royalties there and in most other countries too though. It's a trend. One thing that Africa never gets credit for is how easy it is to make material discoveries and how expediently companies can develop, permit and build them into cash flowing mines. Flat terrain, mostly benign climate, cheap labor, available workforce, specialized engineering firms and geology supportive of predictive discovery (iykyk) make Africa one of the best places in the world to discover, develop, build and operate mines. The only problem is the governments in a few of the countries have taken hard nationalist turns which is a growing trend in Africa, but also elsewhere globally. Burkina Faso and Mali are terrible jurisdictions but for example Namibia and Cote d'Ivoire are very supportive
>>24236089>Namibia and Cote d'Ivoire are very supportiveFor now.
I think at least half my money is in Africa. Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, SA and Niger. Only one of those governments actively causing problems to my investments since I bought in (Moz).
>>24236116But you never know when they are going to fuck you. Ghana is also turning a bit sour even though they are the biggest gold producer in Africa iirc. Raising royalties bigly and not renewing mining licences (Newmont's second mine got confiscated last year). You might be investing in other shitty commodities but with gold there's plenty of money to be made much safer in good jurisdictions right now and in the coming years.
>>24236103"Supportive for now" = "supportive"We should price in worse fiscal terms in the future in our valuations and premium expectations. Higher royalties are obviously coming. Taking it into account Africa is still a great place to be. A lot of people simply don't respect the >erithmatic of turning a discovery into a mine within five or six years for a low capital cost whereas in Latin America or Canada you'll often have to wait a decade or more just to get the permits all out of the way. Of course, the delayed cash flows of slower permitting or development timelines in other safer jurisdictions should also be accounted for. When you let go of one jurisdiction's risks, you assume the risks of another jurisdiction in exchange.
