Just bought a small batch of call options on BTC. I wish I'd gotten it done yesterday but I had to move money into my brokerage account.Uptober averages around a 21% increase. If you toss out the ridiculous upward explosion in 2013 (which was due to MtGox supposedly being hacked by the "WillieBot" trading bot that was relentlessly driving up the bids) and the 2014/2018/2022 bear markets the average gain is almost 27% and has been pretty consistent.Movember is less consistent but still sees 10%-ish gains on average (still have to throw out 2013's insanity).IBIT's current price is 66.7 so if we get a 27% gain it should hit 84.7 or +18. Another 10% in Movember would put it at 93. I bought calls at 69 for Uptober (cost 2.5) and 70 for Movember (cost 3.5). Assuming these numbers, Uptober would net me 15.5 and Movember would net me 22.8 at maturity, or about 13,000 gain for 2,000 risked (about 1,000 each -- so far).I have some dry powder available in case there is a big dip before the end of September (here's hoping).Note, for some fucking retarded reason whenever I put a dollar sign into the post the fucking board software discards the whole post, so fuck whatever fucking moron added that to the filters. Throw in dollar signs wherever it looks appropriate to a non-moron and you should get the point.
>>60958703Everyone is expecting Q4 to be bullish which means it be massively red and down-only just like Q1.
it would not surprise me at all if btc is up 60% by dec 31st
>>60958821A bearish Q4 wouldn't come as a suprise if September remains green. Indices are completely overextended. Investors are buying Nasdaq 50% above the price it was at 4 months ago and there hasn't been a real correction since then.CPI for September will be 3.0-3.1% according to Polymarket. Rates are still high and markets are overeager for cuts.
>>60958895There's a good chance bear market starts in October, if not this month. This year could have been bullish if trumpshit hadn't derailed it repeatedly and Powell had started to cut back in April.
>>60958703I did the same thing a month ago for options dated September 19. I made 50% on one option and 25% on the 2nd option. Not a bad little return for my first dabble into it.
>>60958703This cycle is different unfortunately since it's extended by a year. My base case is that we are in 2020 but can't discount a dump in October/November, especially if September is green and thus out of family, SeptemBEAR might be deferred to October. Fuck it though, gongo up, simple as.
>>60959019>This cycle is different unfortunately since it's extended by a year.This is exactly what everyone though last cycle just before we dumped. Extended cycle theory.
>>60958703For reference I bought a long dated call option out to December 2027 that will be in the profit if we are over 150k/ BTC by then. I’m sure I’ll get fucked by the Greeks on it, as another anon pointed out, but meh.
>>60958821everyone is expecting a top in Q4 lol, wouldn't say that's bullish
>>60959041ETFS and treasury companies exist last cycle? The liquid supply is a fraction of what is was then.
>>60959077If it goes that high before then, you could always take your profits. Or just watch for things running out of air. IMHO it was seriously obvious in December 2017 that things were about to crash, and again in January 2022. I cashed out enough in 1Q2022 to last me for another year.In both times that I mentioned, we saw a peak and then a lot of very fast moves as buyers and sellers battled it out, then WHAM straight down. I'll be looking for that as an entry point for puts -- but I'm not convinced that we'll see another massive bear market like those years, because we just don't have the massive fraud like we had with FTX, MtGox, and all the ETH ICO shitcoin scams.
>>60959041there are no cycles. it's a hallucination created by chartfags
>>60959097Yeah there always is a new cool story of why this time is different and bear makets are no more.>>60959109Cope. There's always been cycles in markets and there always will be.
>>60959106My only concern for BTC price is that it is (arguably) tied to the stock market at this point. If we have a crash in the overall market I think it will pull BTC down with it. That being said, 2027 is a long enough horizon that I could see it recovering long before that happens. My next call is likely going to be targeted around when the next Fed rate cut meeting is.
>>60958703binance are the biggest niggers in the space.
>>60959127>Cope. There's always been cycles in markets and there always will be.explain how the russell 2000 and ARK next generation internet ETF correlate to "bitcoin cycles"
>>60959146People really want bitcoin to be digital gold but for right now it’s just a tech stock on steroids. So yeah, if the Nasdaq crashes then bitcoin is going back to $60k.
>>60959232Because both are risk assets. What's your point?
>>60959244It had the “properties” of a digital gold, but you’re right it behaves like a tech stock.
>>60959041remember that everyone here has severe ptsd from last cyclebut this might be rightor maybe adoption is here and we are like the internet in circa 2005 - ie. extended growth with pullbacks only due to external market events like the gfc and covidor maybe we're only in 1997
>>60959543So it could go up or down or just crab.
>>60959041Last cycle we were already past the euphoria phase (April 2021) when everyone was calling for an extended cycle. We're still in pre-bull territory like 2020 because of interest rates and the overall economy being suppressed. Completely different.
The price will start going up on Monday.
>>60959569This cycles euphoria phase was the solana casino
>>60959567yea no one has any ideadoes stablecoin legislation, etfs, bank adoption fundamentally change what was previously a scam market with some idealistic experimentation on the side? maybea good indicator is that bo hines (was running crypto policy in the whitehouse) just went straight to tetherhttps://tether.io/news/tether-appoints-former-white-house-crypto-council-executive-director-bo-hines-as-strategic-advisor-for-digital-assets-and-u-s-strategy/remember most here are fucked from ptsd and disillusion. all they know are scams and vague talk of bank pocs etc. just like the early internet was email (first legit use case, like stablecoins), porn and warez
>>60959613Bobo cope. That was a sideshow at best and bitfuck and eth have both climbed since then. Even my dinocoin alts have gone up too. If you were right we would have been in the bear market by now.
>>60959631the dynamics are entirely different now from previous cycles. so much has changed since 2021. face-melting is still very possible but now it will be driven by things most of you can't even imagine. buckle up.
>>60959631thinking crypto will change people’ lives like the internet and AI did is hilarious. How would the world be any different if crypto were to suddenly disappear overnight?
>>60958979Not possible. Trump and Nutlick have already decided that markets cannot be allowed to fall in any meaningful way, because the whole system is now built on asset prices, not productivity or savings. A 20% crash isn’t just a “market correction,” it’s seen as electoral suicide. So, pump inflate and protect the market at all costs. Poor Granny and her 2 grand a month in stimmies be damned.
>>60960362the stock markets and "economy" can be propped up until ukraine war is over, but only until then.
>>60960362>Trump and Nutlick have already decidedLe Trump did this, definitely not Greenspan or Bernanke or Yellen or Paulson or any of the other Fed governors or Secretaries of the Treasury who have been manipulating markets and screaming "TANKS IN THE STREETS!" if asset prices were to plunge.
>>60960260Oh, I agree, but Uptober seasonality has happened nearly every year.One reason I wanted to set up my positions now is that the halving has been happening in slightly less than four years, so I think we should be a month ahead of schedule. But that doesn't account for the human factors like back to school, year-end bonus expectations, and that sort of thing.>>60960328>How would the world be any different if crypto were to suddenly disappear overnight?Well, I'd be a lot poorer for one thing. But you'd be surprised at how much it's being used for commerce in gray-market trade like China/Russia. Neither of those sides has any faith in either the yuan or the rubble, but they're willing to trust in Tether.
>>60959077if you believe btc to 1m then the 2k per contract should be DCA'd in and the returns will be significantly greater than the underlying
>bull trap and a dead cat bounce>double top and a drop>short BTC and a stinky linkie
>>60958703UptoberAnon?We will see about that
Bitcoin has me exhausted. Could’ve put money into any tech stock this year and been up triple as much.
>>60958895You guys are actually retarded aren't you?
>OCTOBE(A)R
>>60963320I mean, I believe in it, but not in a set short-term timeframe. Maybe 2032 or so.
>>60959127>There's always been cycles in markets and there always will beyes liquidity and business cycles, altho with post 2008 fed behavior those two are now linkedwhat was the mirage was the halving cycle to btcwhatever effect it had has now diminished to irrelevance compared to market wide liquidityjust look at this past 'cycle' we bottom slightly after the tradfi markets due to ftx fuckery then it was up move pre halving with the etfs, then it was up move with the election and 2025 has jsut been total madness with trump deliberately introducing volatilitythe halving cycle is already dead, only idiots havent figured that outsince liquidity is now rising the only question left of the should i panic sell everything right now question is will the usa go into an imminent recessionhard data says no thusfar, but go ahead sell everything eom because thats the date 550 days from that other date and no other reason at all
>>60964101The very second I sell my bitcoin, it’s going to $150k.
>>60964145well the proper way to deal with this is risk management to your own tolerance of volatilityi dont think anyone is doubting that over the long run btc only goes up as fiat has no bottom and real adoption is actually hereso then it becomes a question of how much of your net worth has to be in cash (or tether) that you become happy with a pullback as a moment to increase your stackat this stage you are deluding yourself if you think you'll be able to call every local top and bottomand certainly the twatter kols dont know shit
>>60964181I put $35k in around mid-August. I’m not selling, period. It can drop 50 percent. I don’t care.
>>60964101>>60959109>>60959232thisI cannot believe there are still people who talk about a bitcoin cycle. that idea exists and is propagated to fool you
>>60964295exactly blackrock is thanking every early adopter for selling to them cheaplyremember germany last year lol
>>60958703Quads and I will chop my cock off
I will never buy alts again after this cycle
>>60958703It's gonna dump
>>60964295Yeah it's not like the amount of BTC being generated changes every four years and the price has followed a predictable path each time that happened.
>>60966662You’re so low IQ I’m not even going to spend the time to spoon feed and attempt explain it to you
i'm waiting for an entry point sub 100k to debtmaxx with 30k in direct deposit cash advancesgiven that i never get what i want im fairly certain that it will hardly dip and go past 150k by eoy
>>60968239>I have nothing to refute your point with so I'm going to pretend you're the dumb oneThanks for admitting it.
>>60968800dubdubs
>>60959244Red pill is that it's all correlated to the same shit, monetary inflation. >Avg annual SPY growth is 8%>Avg annual inflation is 8%Bitcoin and winning NASDAQ companies go up more because they're still new.
>>60964977I wish I had bought thousands of dollars in alts like AERO, KTA, ZORA and AVNT
>>60958979Retarded nigger, covid was the biggest bull run neutering in existence yet it still kept going. Nothing can stop what's about to happen
>>60964977I am leaning toward this logic too.Maybe only top 20 coins.
