The amount of silver mined since 1980 is ~860,000 tons. In 1980, only ~300,000 tons of silver had been mined.This means the circulating supply of silver has increased nearly 300%. One silver coin in 1980 was as rare as 4 silver coins now.Gold is even worse -- a ratio of 1:8.For the dollar, this number is 1:13. So based on the 1980 peak prices, fair prices are:Gold: $875*(13/8) = $1422Silver: $48*(13/4) = $156Basically Gold is overvalued and Silver is still massively undervalued.
Useless rocks thoughbeit
>>61071785Yeah sure but you're assuming the market makes sense.
>>61071785>For the dollar, this number is 1:13.Blatant lie.
>>61071785We can refine our model by incorporating demand. Modern consumption of gold is over 5x what it was in 1980. For silver, that number is around 3.5x. So adjusted estimates:Gold:$875*(13/8)*5=$7110Silver:$48*(13/4)*3.5=$546This means Gold could still do another ~2x before achieving a fair value, while Silver could do a ~11x before reaching a fair value on the same terms.
>>61071797>Useless rocksGold and silver are needed to run every modern computer. You're just a retard.
>>61071812What do you think the real number is? Let's use that instead
>>61071797They SHOULD be useless. That's what makes them work as money. The stability and the uselessness of them. So many people even stackers fail to understand that. I don't give a shit if they use silver in solar panels or gold in space shuttles. I only care about their uses as monetary reserves.
>>61071842whatever it takes to price out india
>>61071854You are using M2 but you should be using M3 instead.
>>61071918>~21T / ~1.5T = 14Oh dear me. Swap that dreadful 13 out!
>>61071952And while you are at it think about assets denominated in dollars. The stock market, money market derivatives, housing. You know - book value that is conveniently masking the true money expansion that has happened since 1980.
>>61072000If you can quantify that, I'm happy to hold your hand and do the calculation for you.
>>61072025Lets start with US stock market $62.2 trillionUS housing market $55.1 trillionI am open to debate if this would be includeable in your calculation.
>>61072082U.S. stock market in 1980 was around $1.2 trillionhe total value of the U.S. housing market in 1980 would be roughly $4.17 trillion in 1980 dollarsSo we would have to add those numbers to the dollar value.
>>61072082Give me a comparison between 2025 numbers and 1980 numbers. Are you saying the stock market is currently valued at $62.2T? And housing is valued at $55.1T? What were these numbers in 1980?We can plug it in and see what we get. I think the message will be roughly the same as >>61071840 though.
a millionaire pre gold standard needed 50 million after the gold standard was dropped shekelstein told me
>>61072097Yes here are the 2025 numbers >>61072082and here are the 1980 numbers >>61072096
>>61071785>This means the circulating supply of silver has increased nearly 300%. One silver coin in 1980 was as rare as 4 silver coins now.you say this like it's a good thing. what you're pointing out here is that silver is worth 25% of what it was in 1980, all else equal
Is the 80 peak a rational benchmark? It was formed by the Hunts buying paper on margin, largely localised to American markets, and very temporary, after their actions were legislated against. We don't have a clear picture of what's driving metal prices yet, but it's almost certainly 1. Institutional, 2. Global and therefore, 3. Resistant to legislation from a single country. That makes it markedly different.
>>61072096Ok so2025: ($21T M3 + $62T stock + $55T housing) = $138T, size of entire US economy currently1980:($1.5T M3 + $1.2T stock + $4.2T housing) = $6.9T total US economy in 1980.$138T/$6.9T = 20So you'd swap the 13 out for a 20.Fair gold price = $10.9KFair silver price = $840Or a 2.72x and a 16.8x, respectively.
>>61071842You know gold coatings are micron thin right? Its so little that it's hardly even worth recovering.
>>61072139I am also open to debate on the addition of the derivatve market that was starting to develop in 1980 with a 1 trillion dollar value and epanded to over a quadrillion dollars in 2025.
>>61072139when will pmg fags learn that there is no such thing as an inflation hedge
>>61072139At $840/oz, 1kg silver would be $30K. Funny, I bought my kg for less than $840.This would probably represent a very high upper limit to fair value, where the OP shows an approximate lower limit
>>61071902>price out indiaBased.>>61072149>hardly even worth recoveringBut it's still in there, and required for modern computers to function...
>>61072151That gets dicey, since some of the derivatives are based on gold/silver. But if you insist on including it, just swap out the factor of 20 for 1000/8 = 125 since the quadrillion number will dominate the numerator.A factor of 5 increase from >>61072139.But I would consider that really really reaching
>>61072191>Factor of 6 increase*Ftfm
>>61071785LMAO, what was the world population in 1980? The number of ounces per person has been only going down. Give me fair valuation, I'll slurp up all the gold I can afford at that price. Never holding piece of shit fiat again.
>>61072191Lets say i wouldn't include the bond market completely because most of it is also not included in M3. I'll would take a safe bet and take the derivative market in full in exchange for this.
>>61071785she's actually so pretty
>>61072208Fair addition. >>61072191So we would have to adjust all numbers for pupulation size.
>>61071785I want to have sex with her if you know what I mean
>>61072208Population has done a 1.85x since 1980, so no, actually, oz / person has increased, not decreased.
>>61072235I know what you mean... look at those a10s
>>61072240Give me 1400/oz gold again. I lost 60% of the value of my cash while saving for a house. Fuck your paper dollars.
>>61072244Those are senpaku a10s, a rare and highly dangerous combination
>>610722404.44 billion in 19808.19 billion in 2025
>>61072261>8.19/4.44=1.8445There's a calculator on your device, y'know.
>>61072253I'd transfer her 100% of my cold wallets if she asked me irl
These calculations have all used peak 1980 panic prices for gold/silver btw. If we use a more conservative estimate of "normal" 1980 prices, we'd use say $5 silver and $500 gold. That would bring all silver estimates down by a factor of 10 and gold estimates down by nearly a factor of 2. So the most egregious "fair prices" in this scenario would be:Gold $5.45KSilver $84(Using >>61072139 math)
>>61072300Although you could make the argument that when peak 1980s style panics set in we can expect to see peak 1980s style panic prices (adjusted to 2025 as we did above).
>>61072300There's always a panic bonus. We will see. I can live with those numbers. Thank you OP and sorry for my harsh introduction.
>>61072316>sorry for my harsh introductionThis is 4chan nigger. Harsh introductions are like polite "hello"s.
>>61072352
>>61072300those seem like fairly reasonable prices.The question is, what happens to all the other shit. Houses, energy, the stock market.You can see the huge inflation on all of those assets. So we are either in a "everything" bubble, or we are hard core losing trust in fiat.Will they be able to make the public trust fiat again, or will it run away this time. And if it falls, what will be next?
Can we get back to talking about how beautiful, sexy, pretty, and hot the woman in OP's picrel is
>>61072419she looks crazy she would probably trans my kids to try to fit in
>>61072489I would accept this deal to cum inside of her once
>>61072414>what will be nextHe asked, on the board that shills chainlink morning, noon, and night
>>61072504I am not expecting infinite wisdom on here.Just different ideas, that might give me new ideas.I am not looking for THE truth but for as many possibilitys as ,well, possible.
>>61072538I was saying that to point out that the answer to>what replaces fiat?is painfully obvious to people on this board. Even if you don't follow the chainlink cult, it's clear crypto is the next big thing as far as money systems go. It's simply a question of "which crypto gets adopted?" and "how fast?"
>>61072414The only way they can get anyone to trust FIAT again is if they don't intervene and let the market crash play out for real into a prolonged depression.
>>61071785Still better then avalanche
>>61071840Is the consumption of gold even relevant?
>>61071797the only useless shit is Crypto
>>61072185>required for modern computers to function...dunning-kruger strikes again
>>61071785Silver has been undervalued since 1873 so that jews could usurp more power and quality of life for themselves. Anyways, close to 2/3 mined silver is used up in industry or unavailable. The COMEX and LBMA have less than 3 billion ounces (much less)
>>61071785>markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain alive
Is anyone taking into account the 4 billion people in south and east Asia - most of whom were living in abject poverty in 1980 - now comprise the largest and growing consumers of gold and silver?
>>61075366Fair numbers are not always real numbers. It's just to get a guess. I made my own calculations based on this thread and i like what i'm seeing. You should adjust for your beliefs, too.
>>61075388checked but incorrect >Dollar to Silver Ratio $1,228 per ounce>Paper to Silver Ratio 359.95:1
>>61072208>the world has been flooded with chinks and jeets so my shiny metals must be worth more.
>>61071785All three are inflationary. BTC>gold>silver>fiat. It's not complicated dawg.
>>61071785>school for 10 yearsThe type of person who makes this decision is terrible with money to begin with.
>>61075032You can pass your silver down to your kids
silver will crash, down to $8, that is much more feasible, a great reset brought you by WEF, and the Big Banks who had hoard all the Hunt's brothers silver since 1980s. SELL SELL SELL!
>>61071785this analysis completely ignores all economic growth that took place between 1980 and now.
>>61071785This thread is bait. All they have to do is mine more silver. There's literally no shortage of silver- Latin America is sitting on a ton of it. There is however a finite supply of gold.
>>61071785I can save her
So what you're saying is that Silver has room to run.
>>61079419>>61080132Read the thread
