trvthnvke: 2026 is going to be an absolute bloodbath for everything... especially crypto
if its obvious why isnt it happening right now? or 6 months ago? goog trades at less than 30x earnings but its being compared to unprofitable companies in 1999?
>reports suggest >trust me bro
>>61243935the real question is, how do we short it?
>>61243935bottom signal
>>61243968if you have to ask how to short the nasdaq you probably shouldnt
>>61243935Were not in a bubble no matter how many times people preach about it. LLMs do have their place and will always receive government subsidies and investment. The only way it will truly crash is due to external market factors.As long as the biggest companies can effectively use it as a cost savings measure rather than paying six figure yearly salaries it will save on operating costs alone.The only part people keep screaming is that the consumers arent paying to use it. OpenAI generates 13 billion in revenue but the stock market works on profits generated tomorrow, not today. As long as it keeps on helping with cutting operational costs, billionaires will always be dumping fake money to keep it afloat.Will it collapse like the dotcom bubble? No, but their valuation will definitely deflate overtime. But i digress that the true value comes from automating people's job.You know this is true because of how china is actively adapting the technology into their weapons systems as well.I'll agree that the current valuation is over inflated. But these companies will never collapse due to generous amounts of investments from defense departments and venture capitalists. Its all fake and gay and the gayest show will keep going on until a worldwide apocalypse happens.
>>61244030Really good post anon.But on the topic of "current valuation is over inflated".. We are dealing with numbers of a massive scale, the magnitude of this "inflated valuation" could be massive..Mortgage-backed securities was $½ trillion (and most of it didn't collapse). OpenAI plan on spending more than a trillion by 2027 ($1.3T?) and how much of this will be sound?
>>61244572Okay misread where i got the $½ trillion from, this was annual sales at the peak.. So the size of the value of all mortgage-backed securities are probably x10..But kind of proves my point about the numbers being of a magnitude where you don't have a good sense of them..
>>61244572As long as oracle, microsoft, and others can siphon enterprise subscriptions and consumer model revenue on the promise of a bigger pay out then we truly dont know.Your xbox and adobe premier subscription became 10 dollars per month extra due to this logic.The push for a consistent subscription based model on consumers and businesses ensures that it is as sound as it gets. We need an external market crash for it to ripple directly into tech. Comparing mortgage backed securities to this topic has the outlier that banks were confident that niggers with a 520 credit score could be a house because "nobody misses a mortgage payment".
>>61244030One of the greatest joys for me on this board is watching people who know fuck all about AI or LLMs spout absolute bullshit they just made up. The whole topic is a fantastic litmus test for bullshitters.Like everything you wrote is some college sophomore paper faggot shit that says nothing. It's all conjecture, compromised of word vomit you wrote to impress the imaginary professor.You people should be farming or making steel or doing something useful, not posting half-baked opinions on AI.>inb4 you get really mad because I'm right
>>61243972Zoom out
>>61244030>1 post by this indian shill nigger
>>61244642Youre spouting rhetort without actually providing an argument to debunk those claims.Like the nigger calling the other a coon.
>>61244620Your subscriptions are higher due to the massive investments made into AI
>>61244662there is nothing to retort to that disconnected word salad
>>61244678Then your argument is as wildly invalid as mine without proving otherwise
>>61244685yeah, rightexcept even the fucking heads of tech companies have said its a fuckign bubbleyou fuckign indian nigger
>>61244706>muh indian CEOs said its gonna pop!
>>61244717no, Sam Altman the head of OpenAinot one of your fellow indians
>>61244632>>61244673There cannot be any doubt that real money is being made, that this is a fast growth area, the bubble question is future earnings from AI will justify the massive investment.Idk.. There could also be weird situations in this "AI bubble" where one part is overvalued and another is undervalued - and when balanced out making the "AI bubble" net undervalued.
>>61244734>it's gonna pop! Muh white knight said so!
>>61244746AWS is not AIare you confused you indian donkey
>>61244752Right, so the revenue from the web services stack stays neatly seperated from the AI investment stack.
>>61244746AWS isn't AI u fucking moronway to out yourself as a dumbass
>>61244811https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amazon-web-services-plans-additional-5-billion-ai-investment-in-south-korea-84802e84>the AWS revenue money pile definitely stays neatly seperated from AI investment money pile
>>61244030>picrepurposed Waymo tech
>>61244856Thats a good way to put it
>>61244632>banks were confident that niggers with a 520 credit score could be a house because "nobody misses a mortgage payment".also, said banks were required to make subprime loans to "certain groups"
>>61243935>it's a bubble i swear!!!!1111ok sweetie check the price and chart
>>61243935If Trump puts a fed president in that institutes negative rates, we are going up parabolically.
>>61243935I hope it pops. I still won’t invest in their trash anyway. I’d rather just buy gold, silver and bitfuck
>imagine buying BitFuckkeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek
>>61244030That's not how bubbles work, Ranjeesh. The Dotcom bubble was fueled by insane speculative investment into companies, business models, and services that were never going to be able to generate a profit of any kind. So when they failed and crashed, all that money went with them.Right now, AI is doing the same thing. Massive investments into unsustainable companies that will never, and could never, turn a profit. The only thing that might save a few of them would be turning towards enhancing AI generate smut, but payment processors are still fighting tooth and nail for a puritan purge of smut from the internet. Otherwise, massive speculative investment always explodes in the end and leaves people destitute, even if the underlying tech lives on anyways.
>>61245286I like this perspective alot ngl thanks for sharing
>>61243935Phew, I sure am glad that the Jews have our backs this time, unlike those other times where they took their profits and let everyone else crash and burn.Thanks Jews! I'll sell all my AI stock and crypto immediately!
>>61244642>zero substance in your retort about bullshittersIt's midwits all the way down. Though I'd have to say anon like you are considerably worse because of the extra airs you put on.
>AI bubble worse than subprimeWhere's the leverage? Subprime was levered to the gills and everyone knew it but there's no leverage at all to be seen from the big AI movers, everything so far has been paid for with cash on hand. That's like the opposite of leverage!
>>61244030I work for one of the big 4 tech companies. AI is bullshit and junk. It codes like Asperger jeet. We’re putting all our chips into it. Literally every chip we have and it’s making useless junk. When this bubble bursts I will be so happy. Then maybe we can get rid of the h1b freaks and move on.
>>61244717The Indian CEOs are investing in it dumbass because they don’t really get tech or business or anything because they’re 70iq retarded slaves
>>61244746Aws is a cloud platform dumbass not AI. I work in tech you look fucking retarded stfu. Do you even know what the cloud is you dumb fucking nigger jockey.
>>61245286>August 5, 1997 - Cisco Systems, Inc., the worldwideleader in networking for the Internet, today reported its fourth quarter results for the periodending July 26, 1997. Cisco closed its fiscal year with revenue of $6.44 billion, an increaseof 57% over the previous year.>For the fiscal year ending July 31, 1999, Cisco reported revenue of $12.15 billion, a 43 percent increase compared with revenue of $8.49 billion in fiscal 1998>For fiscal 2000, Cisco reported revenue of $18.93 billion, a 55-percent increase when compared with revenue of $12.15 billion in fiscal 1999.Cisco had year on year profits so I don't understand where this whole "it's not a bubble if it generates revenue" thinking comes from even Powell said the same thing the bubble is because the valuation and spending is far in excess of the revenue not that there's no revenue
>>61245770Their cloud platform is expected to invest 100 billion within AI mr.ranjesh>“We spent $26.3 billion in capex in Q4, and I think that is reasonably representative of what you expect an annualized capex rate in 2025,” Jassy said on call with investors after the company released its fourth-quarter earnings report. “The vast majority of that capex spend is on AI for AWS.”https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/amazon-expects-to-spend-100-billion-on-capital-expenditures-in-2025.html#:~:text=Amazon%20plans%20to%20spend%20$100%20billion%20this,competition%20from%20rivals%20including%20OpenAI%20and%20Google.
>>61245286AI is replacing jobs at an simply unpresidented rate
Sidelines will win
>>61243945This didn't age well
Two more weeks lol
>>61245788Absolute fucking crickets once the sauce was posted. People just come here to banter rather than actually have a concise argument.Saying AI is going to crash is like saying hot tubs will cease to exist because the jacuzzi company is going bankrupt. Or that lip balm won't be made anymore because chapstick has decided to end their line of production.Technology is technology, its not like sam altman is able to pack up all that code with him when openAI goes bankrupt.
>>61243935>2026 is going to be an absolute bloodbath for everythingBefore that happens, i must have farmed enough stables via houdini pointless program
>>61247360>AWS IS NOT AI!!!!!!!
To me the worrying thing is that there is a clear disconnect between people who understand machine learning and people who don't.Uneducated people really think that transformer models are some magical thinking machine. The problem is, no matter how hard they buy into this illusion, the truth remains: transformer models are just statistical predictors. And we reached diminishing returns on them a long time ago.The market is pricing transformers as a revolutionary technology. They are not. At least not for a long time (new data would be necessary, at a scale that would dwarf the world economy, in order to keep improving them). The misallocation of resources is I believe the largest in history. This is supported by a massive credit bubble that could only be paid if transformers kept improving indefinitely (which anyone in the field can tell you is farcical).Musk Zuck and all are riding the wave to use the compute for other things (robots, metaverse). Those may or may not work. But sure as hell the grifters at OpenAi, Anthropic and the million LLM wrapper Jeet startups from YC are going bankrupt and taking down a couple regional banks with them.
>>61243935>2026 is going to be an absolute bloodbath for everythingNot everything.
