>Quick Rundown: https://roths.substack.com/p/the-coming-crisis>Latest CMBS Data:https://www.trepp.com/hubfs/Trepp%20CMBS%20Delinquency%20Report%20October%202025.pdf>Office CMBS default rates at record highs blowing past 2008>Residential multi-family CMBS default rates continuing to march upwardsMight be neat to convert some of these older offices into something more useful, such as a giant multi-story mini golf course after the bonds go kaboom.The American taxpayer is still going to be on the hook for the majority of the residential CMBS bailouts that are going to end up being done though since they're mostly covered by Fannie Mae.
What if we just RTO
>>61245314They're already doing that, but between the hiring freezes, layoffs, and frankly overbuilding there still isn't enough demand to bail out the office sector.
>>61245200Bank reserves are also drying up and bond rates are going up even though the Fed just cut. Something is wrong and nobody is lending (+QT, +the Treasury General Account is being refilled after the Argentine bailout, +demand for government debt is crowding out private debt)
>>61245547+TGA is frozen due to gov shutdown and just keep sucking up cash
>>61245547A lot of the capital that would have otherwise entered real estate is instead being pumped into stocks, as condos and offices and retail and etc are unable to absorb anymore right now. If stocks start looking more wobbly and people jump ship it may then cause a decline in bond yields. Until then stonks go up
>>61246149Holy shit I didn't realize that
>>61245200Im conditioned to assume that since your graphic is in blue and white it must describe an industry in distress that is about to be subsumed into the chainlink network
bump
>>61246832Inb4 chainlink landlord
