If there is a large dead body yet to rise to the surface from 10/10, there will by now be large firms that can see the blurred body image underwater.Whether Crypto or Tradfi, there are ways of identifying if large firms are struggling/hiding/mitigating/exiting.In my former tradfi life, one way of identifying a MM in trouble is to observe their reaction to large size quotes. Risk management will be enforcing risk-reduction-only so MMs avoiding quotes that don't match their risk, or pricing two-way but one side not competitive, gives clues.Likewise, judging interest from HFs/Pension etc on activity they would normally have interest in.Funds often roll risk monthly or in consistent patterns - a divergence may trigger alarms if more rapid, or closing and not rolling.MMs/Exchanges will see orders from counterparties that if examined by smart traders can be deduced to be risk-mitigating or not normal for that CP.Collateral moves. Reduction of risky illiquid assets to liquid assets are signs of a firm dealing with its problems quietly.Reactions to speculation in press/meetings - here CT.Strange moves in assets/coins eg rapid closing of crowded trades, despite fundamentals.One of the most obvious is when employees from competitor firms divulge information and ask if you're hiring.Alternatively, a tactic used by tradfi firms in extreme market conditions is to reach out to individuals at competitors, pretending to be interested in hiring them - it's amazing what info can be gleaned.Approaching a month after 10/10, large firms will be aware, if not completely certain. Funds will need to give transparency to LPs.Rumors first. Leaked info. Positioning against known struggling counterparties. No risk-on until clarification. If not on-chain, CT will be last to know.
