A fundamental principle of any rigorous ontological/epistemological model whether philosophical or in data science is recognizing when your information set is insufficient for valid conclusions - Michael J Burry
>>61310506https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818
>>61311425it's over
>>61311425>>61311446QRD?
>>61310506Ehem...
>>61311537>https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818Yes what the fuck is going on here?Will PLTR pump or dump tomrrow?
I knew this was going to happen yesterday when a retard OP thought his cryptic "it will work out" tweet meant the market was about to crash.
More and more, I realize how special Buffett is and how everyone else is a faker.
AAAAAAAHAAAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAGHHAHAHAGAGAHAGAHHAHAHAHHAAH GET FUCKED
You can't beat the inside traders. It's not even worth trying.
>>61310506Anyone who takes joy in this situation is a fucking faggot. Michael Burry is my goddamn hero and will REMAIN my hero.
>>61312114his prowess for looking and sleuthing as hard as possible is very inspiring for me
>>61312114Nah no one gamble harder than mayasoshison
>>61312114He's been calling the end of the world since he made 1 good bet
>>61310506Michael Burry was completely right about something when everyone was telling him he was wrong ONCEAnd from that experience he seems to have learned the lesson that he’s infallible, and everyone else is stupid and now he spends his days huffing his own autistic farts regardless of how many times he’s proven wrong about his latest statements
>>61312180he is 100% right about the AI bubble. but predicting the exact moment of the pop is not going to be easy
>>61312298It's like Buffet/Munger/Graham said.The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.Just don't fuck with leverage. Don't short. Nothing wrong with sitting in cash/PM/real estate until the market cools off and there's good value buys.
>>61310506The man looks like he had a stroke, and also somewhat retarded if I'm being honest. For those reasons I don't think I'll follow his advice.
>>61312298He is not right about what the pressumed impact of this "bubble" popping would be though. The mag 7 hyperscalers who are pumping billions of $ into AI are not doing so by accruing debt. They do it with their own cash reserves and they are all reporting extremely robust balance sheets and revenue that is not related to AI whatsoever, but to their core businesses. There simply is no setup here that could possibly be similar to what happened during the housing market bubble. There would be a decent pullback, sure, but it would likely be similar to what we've seen plenty of times before, like during 2022 or april this year. A decent -20% on the S&P which would likely recover within a couple of months. So it's just not worth thinking about. After the "AI bubble", the same stocks will still be leading the market to higher highs eventually.
>>61310506That’s a funky way of saying>I don’t have the necessary information to draw a full conclusion
It seems like people are missing the most important consideration here.By de-registering Scion, Burry no longer has to publicly disclose his positions, so he can avoid MSM market manipulation in response.This is an EXTREMELY bearish signal: he's adding to his short.After Burry publicly announced his research concerning depreciation fraud, etc did you notice how MSM reacted?They ran stories saying "Is he WRONG again?" and "Burry feels the pain", etc.They completely ignored the fundamentals he was pointing to, because he found the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" issue.Here's why:Companies that purchased chips have recently changed their depreciation-span to be LONGER (ie chips "now" wear out over 6-7 years instead of 3-4).IF this is false, then they are committing fraud. Period. Pretty obvious what happens in that case...However, IF it is true that these chips last longer than they used to, then they won't need to replace those chips for an even longer period of time than previously estimated, which means less sales for Nvidia in the fast approaching future.The latest 10Q from Coreweave also confirms that there is an OVERSUPPLY of chips: they reported that they could not supply enough "compute" due to lack of power/utilities. This means that they have unused, unrunnable chips literally sitting in storage, which further indicates that Nvdia's sales are fated to decline, and serves as the canary in the coal mine for AI-data centers being ultimately impossible to run profitably due to impossible-to-lower operating costs.With every software company that purchased Nvidia chips that goes bankrupt, there are now even more chips being sold at liquidation, which further reduces the sales of chips from GPU chipmakers.So yeah - we're past the point of no return. Literally: investors are going to be seeing NO RETURN on the AI bubble from this point.Burry is going dark because he is going BIG.THINK.
hey im so wrong and so is this guy but let me tell you why im not wrong with words words words think big guy heh
>>61312446Yeah but everyone here wants to believe he lost bigly because they wanna be like:>Har har big short guy is big dumb. Me so much smart then big short guy cause me love chainlink.
>>61312298Hes not right because AI bubble is backed by the US govt and military now. It's too important for them to let anyone else catch up. They will keep it pumping until AGI is achieved.
>>61312527>is backed by the US govt and military now.Oh ho ho ho! Good intuition.It's not "backed" by the US govt and military though: they aren't paying THESE prices for it, and they NEVER WILL.In fact, the DoD spending is being cut.What's happening strategically is this:- They have to ensure that China does not get top-of-the-line chips. Duh. Keeping them expensive for now and restricting exports does this.- The DoD needs to build out their own logistical and support infrastructure for AI data centers CHEAPLY.So the US military has been encouraging the AI Bubble (which is very real for reasons of national security) so far.When the bubble Pops, the US military will be able to buy, at firesale prices, lots and lots of chips and server real estate for CHEEEEEEEEEP as these companies go bankrupt. Furthermore, the US military will not have to spend taxpayer dollars TRAINING new servicemembers in how to use IT, because there will be a glut of out-of-work-"AI"-technicians who will be happy to join as officers (or better yet, non-coms for payroll reasons if you're running barebones-budget-Dod).This is also why the US has been so keen to move chip companies away from Taiwan+China, because war is coming in fall of 2027.So yes, the US military NEEDS a BUBBLE because it NEEDS THE BUBBLE TO POP.
>>61312298nothing is popping until we have continuous learning embodied AI in a 4th generation sex robot. You need that testosterone dumping somewhere when SHTF they might even fight wars for their waifu too early to tell.
>>61312563My prediction for a while has been that in the near future consumer AI is going to go away almost entirely, because the business model just doesn't add up.AI will continue to exist but mainly for goverment surveillance, military and a few large corporations.
>>61311537He's winding down his fund because markets are going full retard.
>>61312298No he wrong. There no stopping the train even if the technology remains retarded. The implication that China will win the race mean that they will get the money they want at any cost.
>>61312446I’m pretty sure your only options are either being registered with the SEC or the state, there’s no “I don’t want to report anymore” option, so unless his AUM dropped below 100 million he’s shutting down
>>61313121I stand corrected, looking at the leddit thread apparently you don’t need to register as an investment advisor with either if you are a family office. So theoretically he could go manage his own money only and not report. I’m seeing he has 300 million so not bad, no more billion dollar PLTR shorts though
>>61313121>there’s no “I don’t want to report anymore” optionYes there is. He just manages his own money (which is north of $300M). Or he sets up a private trust.As long as he never owns more than 5% of a publicly traded company, he never has publicly declare his holdings.So, if he spends his $300M on put options for NVDA or PLTR or CRWV or whatever else...he doesn't have to tell the market-makers/manipulators jackshit.inb4: "Nancy Pelosi bought options and had to declare them publicly" (because she's a public servant)
>>61313143I posted too late. You already checked.But because you actually checked (and that is a rare thing to behold), I have to tip my hat to you! :)
>>61313145If family offices don’t have to file then how do we even know he’s going to go to a family office. Seems like completely opaque guesswork
>>61312114he has called 79 of the past 2 recessions. he made one generational trade and has been trying to catch lightning in a bottle ever since
>>61310506>the bear will leave its cave foreverSchizobros... we're so back..
>>61313343woah plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap plap
>>61311425>>61311758It's amazing what numbskulls think passes for an argument these days.Just a quick question, what's your present net worth?
>>613134341.5m illiquid. 0.5m liquid
>>61312346Burry just buys options. He likely only took a small loss on this bet since they're leveraged to the gils. He could probably do the exact same thing ten times before he loses the actual outstanding amount of money hes playing with. Honestly he could throw darts at a calendar and probably call the top and break even.
>>61312691Nah. The thing about any new technology is its expensive in the beginning then gets cheaper over time. Ai cloud companies are running at a loss now but they could easily offer the same quality in just a few years profitably. The only stinker would be if the market demanded cutting edge technology all the time and wouldn't settle for less. Even then hardware companies would survive since people would still be running local models.
>>61312298I work in a company most of you know. We have stopped hiring juniors entirely and have significantly reduced mid-level headcount, and with the current rate of progression I strongly suspect they will soon go the way of the juniors as well. I have teams of AI agents comprised of different roles assigned to different models working on features in parallel. What used to take a month of work by a whole team now takes a senior week with Claude Code. That's literally 20x productivity at a fraction of the cost. We're not in a bubble. We're just hearing the cries of the incompetent being left behind by the new technological revolution. Every revolution has its sacrificial generation and they are it. The truth is that thanks to the exponential progress of technology we haven't even started yet. I wouldn't be surprised if the T in STEM simply does not exist anymore in 2 years max.
