The bears screaming about “MSTR is dead” because the stock is -52.6% off the 11/20/24 all-time high (473.83 224.61) completely miss the actual mechanical reason for the drawdown:MSTR just went through one of the largest forced deleveraging cycles in its history.The stock price run into the ATH was fueled by the Bitcoin buying sprint, which pulled forward an abnormal amount of demand from anyone trying to front-run new treasury acquisitions.Not to mention an incoming president who mentioned a Bitcoin reserve, and balance sheet w/ 25% leverage during a massive Bitcoin run-up to an all-time high.Once the sprint slowed, the leverage unwound. That is textbook.You don’t reward a company with a massive premium when the marginal leverage impulse is gone, because the market can synthetically recreate the same exposure through ETFs like IBIT or literally any new BTC derivative product launching weekly.Why pay a 2× equity premium when you can replicate the leverage elsewhere for cheaper? A lot of the market realized this when they wanted to make a leveraged bet on future Bitcoin price movement.Meanwhile, mNAV compression is not only expected, it’s rational:• MSTR’s mNAV multiple is competing against dozens of new Bitcoin-proxy vehicles• Other Bitcoin Treasury Companies entered the sector, diluting the scarcity premium• Capital rotation into AI is the strongest ever, and it's an extremely powerful narrative to compete againstWhen AI names are pulling 40–70% YTD and taking in every marginal dollar of risk capital, of course MSTR’s premium compresses.The actual story here is simple:MSTR’s sector premium was built on being the only “levered Bitcoin equity.”Now the market has:BTC ETFs, BTC credit markets, BTC derivatives, BTC treasuries, and an AI sector sucking in liquidity like a black hole.A -52.6% deleverage from the peak isn’t bearish.It’s the market re-pricing the cost of leverage across an emerging asset universe.
The people who understand that are loading up because they understand the new thesis isn't a leveraged bet on BTC move due to convertible debt on the balance sheet, it's sucking trillions of capital out of the fixed income market via superior instruments built on top of Bitcoin.I have talked extensively about the fact that the company has evolved from where it was a year ago. Remember, the term "digital credit" wasn't a thing last November.To the whiners who bought at the top and aren't willing to see the thesis through, just sell your shares to me.My thesis really is simple, and I won't be psyoped out of it by anyone who is whining about underperforming Bitcoin since THEY bought the stock.1. I believe Bitcoin adoption is inevitable.2. I want to make a leveraged bet on what I think is a near-certainty.3. Every time my MSTR shares are "diluted", my exposure to the asset goes up.4. The prefs are too good for the market to ignore.5. Nobody has built a better bridge from legacy capital to Bitcoin. And likely, nobody ever will.
>literal chat gpt slop on my board
>>61313825Cvck
>>61313825>it's sucking trillions of capital out of the fixed income market via superior instruments built on top of Bitcoin.Wow that sounds convincing, let me do my due diligence checks andddddddd yup not a fiduciary and this is not an actual investment vehicle, looks like I’ll be going blackrock again since they actually have a prospectus. Sorry chud
>>61313873OP blown the fuck out
>>61313818This post is too high IQ for this board.
>>61313818Lot of words OP, but you said it yourself - MSTR front-ran all the gains from this cycle. It doesn't matter if BTC manages to break to new highs, MSTR won't. If bitcoin goes to 150k, say, then I think MSTR will maybe creep up to 300ish. That may well not happen, we might just get one more feeble pump to somewhere short of 120k before it rolls over and heads into the bear market, in which case MSTR probably won't break 250. Either way, once the cycle is over you can expect it to fall even harder, and for the MNAV to compress well below 1 by the time it bottoms out. MSTR dropped 90% from its 2021 highs, it probably won't do the same again but I could see it going well under 100, maybe something like 60. The prefs won't really matter, the price will be driven down by the fall in BTC and the broader market sentiment. Great buying opportunity when it does happen though.TLDR - don't slurp MSTR now, you moron, it's going to be a fraction of the price by the middle of next year
>>61314093we need as many retards as possible to go down with saylor. it's for the greater good.
>>61313818Kek baggie
>>61314093That's retarded. MSTR pumped from 213 to 250 within hours the other day. Plus you can swing it from 200 to 400 if you don't trust in an ATH.However, if BTC rips, MSTR will once it becomes clear the 4 year cycle is done for, which MSTR is pricing in.
>>61313818MSTR has a LONG way down to go, btc is only beginning its bear marketyou would be much better off holding just about anything else
somebody pls send help
>>61314251The bear regret will be historic.
>>61314285>buy low>sell high>see stock low>"oh wow its dumping"this is why you don't get rich
>>61314301i bought low (in order to sell high)and then it went more low
>>61314317so buy more until you buy the bottomdon't want to be the guy fudding the bottom
Saylor has stolen my money, I will steal his anal virginity.
>>61314337I'm not great at bottom recognition
>>61314285Is this your first time dcaing?you should always wait for big movements and always consider that it can go even further down
>>61314289>just extend the pre-parabolic phaseREDRAW THE LINES
