>AI companies (who do not make a profit) require insane amounts of resources like ram/vram>hardware companies know this and are deciding to sell ram directly to them for more profit than consumers, causing scarcity>said scarcity is so bad that its affecting the ability of companies who need these things to create the same electronics that would use AIam i missing something? who exactly is supposed to use (commercial) AI and give them money if everyone is priced out of any electronic device that can actually use it?
>>61493943Bot
everything spacex has done is a deepfake...its still cheaper to make all those bullshit rigs than actually go to space
>>61493943what comes next will impress you
>>61493954Then explain how I get starlink internet where I get zero cell signal?
>>61493943Common sunk-cost fallacy.What? You thought billionaires were immune to it?Scam Altman promised them that he will deliver a machine which will replace almost every single worker and thus eliminate wage costs.And revolutionize mankind.The big investors would not only make massive profits, but would be the new leaders in an automated world.To understand why they fell for this, you need to understand the history of AI.In 2017 Google created Transformers, the technologoy that powers generative AI.But they were disregarded as useless. The academia and industry believed that AI would be achieved with some fancy algorithm, not brute force.Scam Altman and a few more people believed that scaling Transformers would work by brute-forcing AI.Nobody believed him and he was mocked as chasing a pipe-dream.The results were uninspiring but he kept scaling more and more and more.Until with ChatGPT 3.5 he won.Suddenly the output was "intelligent".He was right and everyone else was wrong.That is why the billionaires believe him.Because he went against the world once and he won.But nowadays it has started to become obvious that scaling more and more and more has reached its peak and we are not gonna create an omnipotent machine God this way.Only now it is too late.What has happened is called an asset capture loop. Once too many retards reacted to this then all the passive funds have been forced to accumulate the stock because of index weighting.Now pension funds, 401ks, and wealth funds are exposed. The valuation is too high and index composition doesn't matter.As all of these get wrapped up into indices nobody can call bullshit anymore. Its the most aggressive, asshole thing you can do, taking the market hostage and threatening everyone else to give you money and make your fantasy real or you're going to fucking kill everyone.People are calling this a bubble but its not that, index bubbles can't burst the same way.
>>61494032So what is the play then? Are you saying shorting NVDA isn't the secret to generational wealth?
>>61493993then explain how an extreme minority of people living in remote areas, powers a massive fleet of thousands of continually increasing satellites?
>>61493964The singularity?
>>61494079I don't think so.By shorting NVDA you are going against everyone.Your win condition is for the world to collapse.Perhaps in a "fair" market you would win, but the market is too controlled to let that happen.What I think will happen is AI will forcefully become a part of everything, even when it is clearly not needed.And as a result everything will become shittier.The same people who are heavily invested in AI are the same people who are the shareholders in every major company.
>>61494083>extreme minority of peopleAre you retarded? Every rich person I know got starlink installed in their cabins and on their boats
>>61493943>the RAM crisisNot my problem. I’m still using the same PC I built at least 15 years ago and have no intention of changing it. Anyone who needs to continually upgrade to the latest and greatest needs to stop being a retarded consoomer. Laptop prices are still cheap as hell too. This is just more doomposting BS
All according to plan anon. If people are too poor to own a computer they will need to stream everything through their locked down cattle devices.
>>61493943The oligarchs don't want you to know this, but we're already a post-scarcity society. We have been for almost 100 years. Everything about our condition is designed as a humiliation ritual to keep our masters entertained. They don't need us to spend our pocket change, we're 100% irrelevant, the modern finance system is just a little game they dreamed up to keep us turning our little wheels in desperation. AI is needed for the surveillance dystopia, your only role is to suffer and flail impotently.
>>61494347>but we're already a post-scarcity society. We have been for almost 100 years.I have retard fatigue
>>61493943linus said on a cast the other day the wholesale cost a 16 gig ddr5 stick is 10...TEN... dollars.Nothing will ever dip again.I shoot competitively, pre covid a federal small pistol primer cost less than 1 penny each, during covid, supply went to zero, and when it came back, the new price was 10 cents, and they just will never ever go back down.
>>61493943selling my 4gb phone to sam altman for $1mil
>>61494407Same. You should kys, it would make the world a better place. You can lick all the boot you want in hell.
>>61493943>am i missing something?yeah the fact the government print trillions of dollars, caused malinvestment and thus resources(ram) are being artificially bid up with this new moneyit isn't complicatedbut you retards will never listen
>>61494502>this fucking unironic retard thinks there was enough resources for the working class to live in literal post scarcity luxury 100 fucking years ago where nobody would have to worklol LMAO HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>>61494512Maybe not eliminate 100% of work, but society was industrialized enough that, were it not for the ruling class's need to watch slaves toil, to have a class of humiliated and dehumanized serfs, all basic human needs like food and shelter could have been solved with no more than a couple hours of work per week per person 100 years ago. Today it could be a couple hours a year, maybe even a decade. We have an extreme abundance of labor relative to our technology being wasted on shit like marketing, printing t-shirts and making rounded css squares because everyone HAS to work 40-100 hrs/wk.
>>61494563>all basic human needs like food and shelter could have been solved with no more than a couple hours of work per week per person 100 years ago.LMAOHow the fuck do you even figure this?It makes no sense mathematically.Ignore all money and just take resources(consumer goods). Almost all of the consumer goods produced in the economy go towards the working class, very few go to the capitalist class because there is so few capitalists despite them consuming more goods on average.
>>61494347If its so hopeless why havent you killed yourslef yet? Blackpill faggots are disgusting cowards.
>>61494124so basically what pic rel said ?guess i'll pray for total collapse then.
>>61494683I'm actually putting my money where my mouth is there. I quit my job over a year ago and I'm just living down the savings I had, enjoying life as a neet. No reason to kms yet, but in about 6 months I will.
>>61494347Post-scarcity is a myth. there is no such thing as there is an energy limit somewhere or an ideological one imposing unchecked expansion. technology only makes the problem worse as the organism takes all advantage. growth without check is not sustainable. its not post scarcity society but post growth society that survives another 100 years.
>>61494932>imposingbrown hands
>>61493943Anon, "There was a fire at the memory factory so memory prices went up" is a meme as old as your parents.
>>61494563Yeah, I don't want a <500 sq ft tiny house to live in though
>>61493943For hardware production you can't just turn on the engine immediately. There needs to be such clear demands that creditors are willing to take a chance on building up new infrastructure.
>>61494137you realize rich people are the vast minority?and Starlink requires a huge infrastructure to function?
>>61494124>By shorting NVDA you are going against everyone.>Your win condition is for the world to collapse.There is a person out there willing to do just that, and he will win and rule over the rubble. We got into this nightmare future by thinking this way, Surely no one would be stupid enough to do *That*.I wish I had the (((pasta))) about it.
>>61493943comsumer electronic devices are not needed for Skynet to exterminate Humanity
>>61494635Anon, we waste 47% of the food we produce. Even our homeless/poor are morbidly obese. Open your fucking eyes. During the dust bowl they were destroying oranges by the ton just to avoid having them fuck up the market for oranges.
>>61495434>Anon, we waste 47% of the food we produce.Leftoids lie about statistics all of the time.The actual number is much lower.Most of this percentage is actually food wasted AFTER it's been sold to consumers.The rest is food that is not economically viable to salvage during the production process. This is completely normal and the USSR had an even higher food production waste rate.The last bit of "food waste" is nearly spoiled food companies throw away because it's fucking illegal to give to the homeless.(the government made this happen)
>>61494032Why can’t index bubbles burst the same way?
>>61493943It's all a pretext to make computers unavailable to the common man. The computer of tomorrow is a dummy terminal connected to a central server that will only show you approved content.
>>61496034100 percent this will be the direction it goes. At first it'll just be big business needs the capacity, it'll be harder to buy what you need. Then they'll bring out more online services where you don't need that extra ram anyway since it's on the cloud done for you and people will slowly adoptEventually they'll say you can't do compute at a private residence because of muh emissions and well it's only obvious if the servers are all at one location they can be more efficiently cooled and power recaptured. Then they'll ban em all. Boys seriously enjoy everything we have right now. Cars, computers, books, tobacco, rib eye steaks. Maybe they won't all disappear in our lifetimes but you can see how it'll get there eventually unless there's an insane course correct.
>>61495434>Anon, we waste 47% of the food we produce.Not enough. I went to view a house to rent in Sydney recently and the Chinese landlord told me I should go to a nearby foodbank to get a free lunch when he was running late.
>>61495434Ok, Joad
>>61493943It's unsustainable and they know it. The tech industry only worked in the first place because Computers became cheap and everyone could own one. If they price people out of computers they'll simply just opt out of using them for entertainment.Then the tech industry faces a REAL crash, not the fake crash caused by price gouging, unironic bear run on the concept of technology ownership.
>>61493943I think the idea is that the people who won’t be able to get proper access to devices that use AI are the sorts of people who wouldn’t be paying to use AI in the first place. If you aren’t paying to use AI then they don’t care that you’re using it at all.
>>61496242so we go back to the 1980s?sounds like the world would heal
>>61496301It wouldn't even be the 1980s, personal computers were common even back then.We're going back to the 1970s where everything was a mainframe and terminals. It's going to suck for everyone who isn't a major business, and even major businesses will eat shit if they aren't FAGMAN because the tech business now hinges on being able to afford their own hardware. Even back in the day, getting mainframe time was expensive and nobody wanted to do it. What I think will happen is the pivot to the cloud will fail (again) and utterly annihilate tech stocks for a few years. However long that takes is anyone's guess, but we can't have tech growth if only 5 companies get to own tech.
>>61493943They'll still sell you the devices, but with a heavily reduced amount of memory and herein lies the cool part. Since the post-scarcity local device is so badly crippled in terms of compute, you're now completely dependent on da clowd on being able to do anything outside of browsing basic ass news and brainrot videos, and you WILL pay the $20 per month per subscription for everything you used to be able to do on your $400 device.
>>61496369I also think this will fail in the long term because old tech is still too abundant and cheap. Thus is pandora's box of having a tech cycle of only 3 years. The idea all of these OEMs have that they're going to sell shit that was outdated 5 years ago and still make money will fall flat on its face.
>>61494083Answer his question first, flatard.
>>61496069>At first it'll just be big business needs the capacity,This already exists, it's called a VDI. They're fucking terrible to worth with
>>61495139You realize governments and militaries and NGOs and relief organizations are using Starlink? It's not even expensive like Inmarsat was 25 years ago. Like $2-300 for the hardware and $50-120 a month and it works everywhere.
>>61494688>that profile pictureDon't tell the sperg is trooning out, come on.
QUESTIONIs micron the next nvidia? What are the odds that this shit runs to 2 trillion mcap or some shit?
>>61494032>technologoyheh
>>61494079I think anon is one of those types that plays only the extreme ends of possibility. Reality is if this bubble pops it doesn't necessarily equate to civilization collapsing. Could easily end up as fast and hard dump down and then a literal flat line of the market. It's not even impossible for this to be the outcome. Meaning if this is the next step, then the final way left to easily escape the wagecage is shorting semiconductors/tech like SOXX or QQQ and any stock heavily exposed to semiconductors/tech ie SPY with its ridiculously high weighting for just a few semiconductor/tech stocks. However it's also possible those who have huge amounts of money in the market can drag this out just to prevent retail from getting wealthy. A slow descent down to prevent puts from being super profitable unless of course enough big shareholders race for the exit dumping it hard ans fast lel
>americans continue to insist that it's impossible to make chips profitably in the USEven with prices quadrupled?Fucking hell they're just lying. We could have chip fab plants, staffed by union labor even, and they'd be cheaper than this shit.
>>61496369/biz/ types should be able to save 20 to 30k for their own decent local setup over the next few years. This is really a normie problem. Just don't buy whatever other dumb shit you were planning on buying first and prioritize this instead.
>>61493943im glad i bought my 64gb sticks like a year ago
>>61496986The problem is uncertainty. You'd need mass investment and some years to make the factory and hire worker. And then what? Is the world still gonna be in that AI bubble? Are the competitor never going to raise their output? It's too risky I think
>>61493943relax anon, Enron 2.0 will be over soon.
>>61497020Im mad I didnt buy more
Chinese stockbashers on /biz/ stick to two main narratives: anti-Trump and anti-AI.They have some very obvious tells.One is that you will see anti-AI post OPs constantly bump their thread when it's about to slide.
>>61493943companies slowly replace employees with AI>eventually everyone will be unemployed>who will buy the services that companies offer?who would've thoughttoday's billionaires are worse than yesterday's
Take it from an older man - everything you need to do can be done on a computer from the late 90s, with the exception of watching HD video. You can even turn a late 90s, single core PC with 1Gb of RAM into a viable daily driver with certain Linux distros (with the above mentioned exception.) Everything else, be it text processing or image viewing can be done with ease and with old software that can be easily pirated if you're using it as an offline Win XP machine or in the daily driver case Linux has you covered already. The point I'm making is that technology has peaked, its peak was in the mid 2000s, roughly around 2010. Everything beyond that point has been unnecessary. This especially includes subscriptions of all kinds. You don't need a subscription to Netflix or any other media site. Torrents solved that long ago. You don't need software subscriptions, because ALL software has been made long ago. I do most of my writing on an old machine with a cracked version of Word 97. That program is now 29 years old. What this AI grift will do is mark the end of tech progress as a whole, of the very concept of it, but it'll drag down with it a shitload of tech companies and possible cause a global depression. Neither Nvidia, nor AI as a whole, nor these sad fucks that are trying to profit (Micron, Samsung, Crucial) will be with us in the future. The most likely scenario is that the Chinese do what they do best (business) and start producing everything from SSDs to HDDs to RAM, filling the hole these dumb fucks have left, and by doing so becoming even richer. There's an actual, real, tangible, multibillion company to be made right there and not in AI grifts and subscriptions and the Chinese are going to do it. Japan theoretically could too, but they're been very sluggish mentally so who knows. What I think will pop first is the AAAA+ gaming industry. That's the first ship that'll go down. Only smol, optimized indie games (2D) will be viable.
>>61497570>Take it from an older man. I have no idea what's going on and my tech views are adorable and assume that global technology peaked when I was young and happy and actually engaged with it
>>61494032High iq post
>>61493943i have the feeling i cant upgrade the next 3 years because of ram prices
>>61495651They actually do. That's exactly the 2000 bubble. Cisco was also the most valued company in the world, for good reasons. Then it popped. Did Cisco disappear? Did the internet disappear? No. Same play is being enacted here.
>>61494563>I literally have no idea about the nuts and bolts of how the world functionsThere is indeed a lot that can be automated, but you're living in a fucking hallucination
>>61493943It's just an elaborate cartel appropriating all hardware, preparing to rent it back to consumers at exorbitant prices.Trump is letting it happen because he's become demented.Y2K Trump wouldn't have let this fly.
>>61497890>did the internet disappear?No, but it has gotten shittier every single year since without exception>>61497570Take it from another old anonYou can tell them the truth all day, but they need the fancy animations and extra os handholding because they grew up on touchscreens and phones, not irc and terminals. We're just yelling at clouds to them
>>61493952said the bot
>>61493943why does everyone think AI will be for general consumption kek. IT IS NOT FOR YOU
>>61494032>index bubbles can't burst the same way.There isn't enough money in the entire world to pump those bags.
>>61497950Nah. You're just domesticated and, as Uncle Ted put it, over-socialized. Everything could be better if we normalized murdering politicians and bankers.
>>61498281>domesticated>oversocialized (LMAO, do you know where you are?)No, I just work adjacent to metalworking manufacturing and therefore see it every day. Shit breaks *nonstop* with either little annoyances that could compound if they aren't addressed or actual time loss events that shut everything down. You have no idea the idiosyncrasies of modern production. Logistics? Yeah automate that all day. Part making? Depends on the part and the process. Troubleshooting? How the fuck are we going to design a robot to troubleshoot mysteries?
>>61494032>technologoyHeh :)High iq post. You shouldn't believe people like scam altman, or pajeets. They are good at scamming people for billions of $. REALLY, REALLY good at this.
>>61498400>Shit breaks *nonstop*Wouldn't be a big deal were it not for dozens of layers of jew parasites sucking profit out of everything. You only see that as something stressful because Mr. Goldstein has you in the rat race to fund his next Yacht and Greater Israel. We could make do with a fraction of our manufacturing output were it not for all the junk we produce (like Hannah Montana laptops), planned obsolescence and a host of other issues I'm not going to think about right now.I should also mention I think we could have solved the working question in first world nations only, and that was only before we imported the third world. Impossible now that parasites flood every single layer of the system, top to bottom.
>>61494079you can't short against the market and the Fed bank printing trillions, where billions end up in the stock market. You are against the wave, even though you may be right. To make money ,you need to ride the wave, even if it's the wave of cope, hope and dummies.
>>61497988>why does everyone think AI will be for general consumption kek. IT IS NOT FOR YOUThis. AI is for the Big Gov to spy on you. Their large AI data centers can process digital / audio / video files faster where they can identify people they want to spy on.
>>61498525Now you're just rambling straight up bullshitI'm not saying there aren't parasite problems in manufacturing, especially at the /biz/ level, but machines tackle specific problems by design in various ways and a lot of those machines have (known) design flaws or the accessories (like the lubricants, way oils, hydraulics, filtration) have inherent issues that need maintenance (with human hands) at regular intervals. I don't see those being feasibly 100% automated anytime soon.
>>61498876In my earlier posts I said we could get humans down to working just a couple hours a year, not zero work. More practically, I think that would manifest as men just work a few months of their life when they're young, which would average out to a few hours a year over a lifetime. This is entirely feasible if worthless jobs didn't exist and everyone just did a necessary job for a while.Every year there are thousands of engineers of every discipline graduating in every state. Do you think all those people are getting engineering jobs? No, they're fighting for a very few, limited, select positions then most of them give up and go on to do sales or real estate or IT or bus tables because we have too little real work to do and too many people forced to work 40 hrs/wk for decades.
>>61493943classic bubble
>>61497988>IT IS NOT FOR YOUthen how exactly are these AI companies going to make their money? if other companies are paying them to replace their workers with AI, and those workers have no jobs to buy things from companies who are paying to use AI, where the fuck are those companies getting the money to give to AI? >b-but muh government contractsok but not every company will have government backing and even billionaires alone arent going to be capable of operating these things at loss for long with how much resources they require
>>61497988it already is though?what are you talking about retard?
>>61499489It's for goverments and advertisers and NGOs to spy on you.
>>61498918I have no issues with that perspective, and think it would be an absolutely incalculable boon to modern life if there was a concerted effort to basically 'top up' your role in, in this case, your manufacturing job duties every morning (or afternoon), and hopefully it would be coupled with a renewed push for more public 'third spaces' which have completely vanished from much of the culture. People could actually be human again
>>61493943Kikes are going all in for AGI, since they overplayed their hand (Again) and if we don't somehow get AGI on the next 5 years, they will be without a doubt expelled again, but since this time the whole world is aware of their demonic kikery, they will be expelled to the vacuum of space.
>>61498281>>61498525>>61498918Marxists will never stop being so comically retarded.
>>61498918>we could get humans down to working just a couple hours a year, not zero workThis is definitely schizo territory but I think one day a week is achievable once you nuke the useless jobs, enslave women, kill all c-suite members, syndicalise every business on the planet and automate everything you possibly can
>>61498918you have negative understanding of the infrastructure that enables current day life.like yeah man, the trash man will only work a couple hours a year thats perfectly reasonable.
>>61500206When you make “advertising” illegal (why is this even allowed to exist as a concept), every ratbag piece of shit mind controller wannabe can split the labour of picking trash up between them and the existing trash man, the trash man now only has to work one day a week because more of them are doing it instead of human labour being wasted trying to invent new diabolical schemes to sell product. Also trash man job could largely be automated anyway.
>>61496382Nobody is going to buy the OpenAI McGoy Terminal 2030 when they can just pick up an old computer (by today's standards) for $10 at a junkyard. Worse yet they might go outside instead and unplug from the modern soitech hellscape.The average consumer is already holding on to their old smartphones for longer which is a sign for things to come.
>>61500222you also vastly overestimate the amount of people in jobs like marketing compared to service and infrastructure.
>>61493943>>61500064>AGI>economicsThis is about creating a surveillance golem god to rule over the masses and usher in their messianic hellworld. Fortunately for us there is a good chance it'll fall on its face but still.
>>61500486I didnt say or imply otherwise. They obviously want their promised invicible robot army that much. They are desperate for it since they overplayed their hand big time this time, they got too cocky for buying into AI kikes promises. The kike got kiked.
>>61500584>The kike got kiked.Based
>>61494079The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I'm just limiting AI exposure as much as possible and waiting for the dip before buying back in.
>>61493943It's only getting worse
>>61500584>>61500751jews always jew jews the hardest.
