Warren Buffet is buying japanese debt btw.
>old fart is doing something >young fart thinks it's also good for him
In light of his impending retirement, this appears entirely unnecessary. Kindly bear in mind that he is to retire in two days hence, and his son shall take his place.
>>61566417To be fair, he is not just any old fart anon.
Warren Buffett has several teams of analysts working for him, you don't.Warren Buffett runs a $900b publicly traded conglomerate, you don't.Warren Buffett has to comply with certain insurance reserve constraints that force him to hold a lot of cash & t-bills, you don't.Warren Buffett has tens of thousands of shareholders who expect certain returns and would punish certain equities portfolio movements, you don't.
>>61566400>>61566437this is interesting considering japanese bonds seems to be on a downtrend; especially with the new prime minister. where is this information from?
>>61566400and just at the end of last month japans bond market was about to destroy the worldfunny how fast things change right
>>61566400Warren Buffet doesn’t make decisions for Berkshire Hathaway anymore and likely hasn’t for quite some time.He is 95 years old. Furthermore, you aren’t the manager of a trillion dollar holding company so you shouldn’t be copy trading them
>>61566482I still dont know what consequences this will have. They keep yelling 'end of the era of cheap money'!But they have been saying this for a while.
>>61566512Ok but seriously, how long until the us debt gets out of hand and inflation goes parabolic?Is the whole world of fiat currency going to behave like the argentinian peso in 10 years?Right now all bets are off, buy anything real just dont hold fiat.
>>61566537contrary to all the loud doomerism from mostly american doomers, the usd is the last fiat to falllook to others first, small ones like switzerland or bongland and then finally the euroonly after the euro dies can the usd dies as all that capital will be fleeing into the usa for safety first
>>61566605I am also of the opinion that the euro is doomed. We just dont know when will it fall.
Why would he be doing that?
>>61566400he thinks japan rate hikes are bluffsif they are, going back to 0 interest will pump the bonds
>>61566469>Warren Buffett has to comply with certain insurance reserve constraints that force him to hold a lot of cash & t-billshe doesn'the's not a bank, nor an insurer did you hallucinate this leverage ratio rule for funds?
>>61566482Yep, funny haha. Except nothing's changed. JP10Y still holding above 2% like it's made of diamond and looking to explode higher.
>>61566469Also relative value trades, arbitrage, duration matching liabilities, cash flow matching to retire certain liabilities, etc.Literally any of 3000 reasons to buy FI besides "price low".Try explaining that to people though.95% of people don't even understand that higher yield means lower price.
Isn’t he officially retired as CEO by now?I’m sure they still ask him what he thinks, but all the analyses and deeper considerations are handled by others these days.
>>61566871>95% of people don't even understand that higher yield means lower priceonly if you are forced to sell thoif held to maturity the bonds do indeed pay out in fulland since he isnt operating a bank with a duration mismatch between account holder redemptions and long duration bonds he should be able to hold to maturity and never be forced to mark his bonds to market
>>61566650Yen accumulation. He's probably looking to buy Japanese businesses or at least be prepared for the opportunity.
What does this mean for my Japan ETF?
>>61566537it's when someone blinks.My guess is Japan will blow out with massive collapse of the yen and japan and it'll be a fucking awakening to people where debt has been a handwaving exercise for years. Then the Euro/Pound blows. Yuan/USD may be next. As the dollar is the world's reserve currency there's a lot of inertia to overcome because everyone wants dollars.>>61566400this is super dangerous because Japan has such ridiculously high debt as a percentage of GDP that if the 10Y even hits 4% it's fucking over. 3.5% is like extra spicy, 3% is massive intervention and unsustainable for more than a few years. And reasonably, once everyone thinks it's over, it's over. Yields blow up to a billion percent because either you think Japan defaults or if they don't, they're paying you in Yen that'll be massively devalued by the time you get them.The 10Y is basically like the doomsday clock and 2.000 is like 15 minutes to midnight.
>>61567492This sounds like the hardest musical chairs game ever. If you hold cash it could just get hyperinflated, if you hold debt it could just face a default, if you hold assets they could just experience a massive dump in a debt crisis...And every bank/broker/exchange could go bust leaving you to try to get the insurance you can.Crazy shit.
>>61567492>that if the 10Y even hits 4% it's fucking overpeople keep saying stuff like this as if hard limits exist within the fiat paradigm nowadaysand as i have done repeatily on here i then point them to turkeythey had several episodes of hyperinflation and their country is doing fine per its own standard, there was no mad max zombipocalypse, quite the opposite turns out sustained high inflation is better than european austerity in preserving your industrial productionno what will kill japan is the demographic cliff, but its impact keeps getting pushed back with increased automation and its resulting productivity
>>61567613>people keep saying stuff like this as if hard limits exist within the fiat paradigm nowadaysThere's no exact hard limit but you do run into points where it's not mathematically sustainable in like an imminent way. Like if a country borrows its GDP in a year you're cooked, and inflation exists whether or not people can kick the can down the debt road
>>61567581>if you hold assets they could just experience a massive dump in a debt crisis...Sorta kinda maybe? Assets are probably still the best bet. If you have a company that makes something valuable that company still has value if the currency gets hyperinflated. If you have gold or land that's still valuable whether or not the currency or economy is ok
>>61566475i too purchase high and sell low
>>61567671I am learning now the value investing lesson...Too much dog coins have fried my senses.
>>61567641everyone has their own money printer, of course they can kick the can down the road and just print all the government deficit spendingit happened all the time in the post bretton woods era in the second worldas long as you have actual industrial production that someone else wants so you can trade that for what are today still dollars in global trade to manage your imports you are fine
Buffet, in an end-of-life fancy, has decided to try to help Japan. He probably reasons that keeping Japan from imploding is the best way to prevent a huge market crash that will fuck everyone over.
>>61567711Got any other bridges for sale?
>>61566469nope, he literally flat out said he is holding so much cash because there is nothing else good to buy right now and withing 5 years he thinks there is going to be a very good opportunity to take advantage of with that cash.
>>61567823Why does he care tho he’s 95
>>61567867Who cares if hes 95 or 105? He's not captain save an economy he plays the game to win.
reminder that warren buffett is a garbage investor and if he had just put all his cash into SPY he would have more than doubled the returns of bershire. instead he hoarded cash for a crash that never came and lost his shareholders billions due to inflation. the fact that berkshire shareholders haven't ousted this moron is proof that investors are idiots and don't understand investing or returns. all he literally had to do was put the cash into an index fund something that even 90%+ of normies know about by now. prove me wrong? pro tip you can't.
Maaaaan, the Japan situation is crazy. As a weeb, first time I went to Japan, one euro was like 120 yens. Now it's like 185 yens. A fucking theme park for us o_O
>>61567890too bad you are fucking yellow monkeys there and not prime pussy (russian / swedish)kys btw
>>61567691Do you actually believe that it's infinite sans consequences? Like if we just wanted to give everyone a million bucks Trump checks it'd be fine?
>>61567970there is nothing preventing the simultaneous existence of 2 currencies1 state mandated internal one for everyday interactions between citizens, they have no choice but to use this as you mandate it as legal tender and only accept taxes in its formwhile at the same time also maintaining an external currency for international trade that has some agreed upon value thats less inflationaryright now thats usd, could become gold, sdrs or even btc doesnt really matter just as long as most nations are willing to trade their goods in itand it isnt without consequence: all your trade partners of critical importance need to accept the joined currencyand most important your nation needs to be able to have industrial output (or commodities even, but since i assume most real anons here are from first world nations) to do international trade withso then the question becomes which system is better for maintaining industrial output in our current worldand look at the burning clownshow that is europe to see that forced austerity is still the pretty much worst path to go and the joke is even then their books arent even remotely close to being balanced
>>61567492Except old people are dying opening up massive amounts of money that would go to social benefits.Military is also ready to join any war to shift focus away from the yen.
>>61567823he could go all in at link though
>>61567880This. He is basically Robert Kiyosaki if Robert Kiyosaki does insider trading.
>>61566690your post probably marked the 10Y top
>>61566475if the value of the yen increases compared to the dollar, would that make the japan bonds more profitable?is buffet not allowed to make currency swaps?
