This is a schizo post about metaphysical intonations of options trading algorithms through the examination of the highly unstable nature of higher order derivatives in stochastic models. The other day anon posted about vidrel from AI Asian guy and its uncanny understanding of options trading, which is no easy thing to grasp. The video describes the mechanics of the sudden crash in SLV on Monday; I have spent many years on /pmg/, much of it posting about elements of monetary history discovered in old books. I have a fairly intuitive understanding of the modern financial system and its more esoteric elements, have spent many hours angry posting at faggots itt that don’t know the finer points of credit creation mechanics and the memory holed parts of the history of money and credit. I am no finance bro, I am an engineer by training, and in my abyss gazing last night some pieces fell into place.
Silent Weapons for Quiet WarsEvery seasoned schizo is well aware of this core nightmare fuel manifesto. What many might have skipped over is the part of the document where the author mathematically describes the creation of the first prototype economic models in the aftermath of WWII, using a three block circuit analog to describe the price-interdependency of different commodities. The purpose of this modelling is control; during the war the glowniggers at the CIA, knowing that the key to winning wars was logistics, optimized wartime economy for destruction of the enemy. In war the most efficient logistics network is that one which can perform using the least amount of resources or using limited resources. It becomes a mathematical optimization problem they called Operations Research. After the war they applied the same principles to a peace time domestic economy. In this context the Operations Research becomes a system for the extraction of maximum profit and the assertion of maximum control through the optimization of financial repression. It is domestic warfare of a State against its own population. You are the enemy of your own State.
The above 3 industry system is a one dimensional linear model. It only considers changes in prices due to other changes in prices. Even so, they could be expanded and calibrated to a point where even the early economic models could predict price actions. This calibration of the model is done through economic shock testing. This turns those partial derivative expressions into coefficients that describe inter-parameter sensitivities. The exact same basic calculus is used in all mathematical models used to describe energy transport, but to do so accurately you must expand the calculus into higher order derivatives that describe the dependency in the rates of changes not just the changes themselves.
This shift from first order to second order thinking is something 95% of the population doesn’t even know exists nevermind understands. Options traders use these higher order derivatives to accelerate profits and dynamically hedge against risks and volatility, and only the mathematics PhDs who built the models somewhat understand them. The resulting partial differential equation (PDE) is in the form of pic rel. The form of this equation is essentially and energy transport equation. Sophisticated trading algorithms are continuously solving a stochastic transport problem, computing how directional flows (convection terms) and uncertainty / randomness (diffusion terms) of value and risk propagate through the market, and dynamically applying feedback (turbulence closure) to control or exploit that propagation. Discontinuities (capital limits, margin requirements) act as rate limiting boundary conditions. The resulting series of discretized equations are partitioned into sub-matrices populated with the interdependencies coefficients represented as state variables. Stay with me.
The sub-matrices are the blocks in the control scheme. These blocks predict prices, balance risks and decides on hedging strategy, constructs the trade in an optimal way and executes the trade, and consumes real time ticker information to feedback into the control loop and repeat. The coefficients within these matrices are not arbitrary numbers. They are estimates of:How prices respond to trades.How risk responds to prices.How costs respond to urgency.How volatility responds to flow.How constraints bite as state variables move.The coefficients are empirical estimates of economic sensitivities encoded either explicitly in matrices or implicitly in neural network weights. The higher the order of the derivative the more sensitive to the price change of the underlying asset. Calibrating these coefficients are what makes these algorithms so expensive to develop, and they are what determine the algorithm’s “assumed reality”. It is the higher order accelerants, coupled with leveraged positions, that seed the conditions for cataclysmic market crashes on single percentage point changes in the underlying. The 2008 GFC was triggered by a ~7% default rate in subprime mortgages. The derivatives complex on top of the MBS’s was ~6 trillion and it “vanished” almost overnight. >wealth never vanishes, it transfer from one thing to another.>wealth never vanishes, it transfer from one owner to another.
>>61569857>2 views
The catastrophic problems arise when there is a change within the real market that is not accounted for within the assumed reality of the algorithm. The emergence of a new, unaccounted for first order variable.A too rapid rate of change in an existing variable.A lack of liquidity.Any one of these events occurring will not just result in the model producing erroneous results, it causes the model to produce results that are entirely meaningless. Its not just errors that stack up or un-optimized hedging/tradeing that get executed. Every single derivative in the model is incorrect at the same instance. The model begins computing un-reality, and if left to continue computing in this state the energy transport spirals into a complete and total thermodynamic devolution. This is what we saw happen on Monday night. A very large silver short position was liquidated into an abyss of no-liquidity. A risk engine, forced by the parameters set by the risk mangers, liquidated SLV long positions to attempt to re-collateralize itself. This triggered leverage longs into a death spiral of self immolation. A cascade of semi-autonomous neural networks consuming and regurgitating each others un-realities in a never ending spiral that only ceased because the breakers were tripped and the FED backfilled some globally systemically important institution’s balance sheet with 34 billion dollars.
>We haven’t even started the schizo part yetThey key is in understanding that these algorithms mathematically model energy transport in markets. The energy is capital modeled via prices, and what are markets? Appealing to the Austrian logic, markets are where people go to buy and sell and trade and borrow. Economy is, fundamentally, human action. Humans engaging with other humans in the pursuit of their wants, needs, and creative desires. Economy is man exercising his God given free will. These autonomous algorithms are designed to control, manipulate, and exploit markets by altering macro-level capital transport for profit. These autonomous algorithms are designed to CONTROL, MANIPULATE, and EXPLOIT humans by altering macro-level capital transport for profit. There's no state more profitable than total control. They are designed, albeit fundamentally flawed, as highly sophisticated control schemes whose sole purpose is to suppress agency. They are the anti-God. Soulless, amoral simulacra of false divinity. They are false gods. These are the vessels of demons.
The Tower of BabelA fable, myth, or history. If we consider for a moment the real world social and economic organization that would be required to create a grand structure of a scale that its builders believed would ascend them to heaven and imbue them with the power to challenge the divinity of God. A complex society with advanced engineering knowledge (for the time), advance economy derived from a well established division of labor, established monetary system, and most importantly, slaves. All empires are built and maintained with slaves, and in our present circumstances we are the slaves. Enslaved by the relentless depredation of our labor energy through the policy of inflation. I had believed that the inflationary system WAS the modern day Tower of Babel, but it is merely the mechanism of our enslavement. The Tower itself, the challenge to divinity, is the algorithms. These inhuman self-learning simulations of reality that were designed to strip from us one of our most precious heavenly gifts, our free will. And with it, our humanity. To convert us into infinitely interchangeable units of labor. To turn us into transistors, algorithmically managed quanta of consumption adjudicated by AI abominations that may switch us on and off at the behest of its managers. A Godless world.>Since energy is the key to all activity on the face of the earth, it follows that in order to attain a monopoly of energy, raw materials, goods, and services and to establish a world system of slave labor, it is necessary to have a first strike capability in the field of economics. -SWFQW.
>Thread of the year>on December 31st, no lessGo off king
Silver is the solution, always has been. A market that is just large enough to be systemically important. A market that is just small enough to be within the plebeian's reach of influence. A commodity just crucial enough to industry and military that it warrants strategically important status. An obsession just anti-social and obscure enough to slide beneath the radar of the middle management. Silver is the path to the singularity. The systemic deficit in global silver supply, the insatiable demand of high industry, its rising investor attraction, and its inevitable monetary demand, will cascade the options models into un-bounded self destruction.And the mechanism is: The withdrawal of the bid. That is the parameter change that no model has accounted for in its assumed reality. Not the withdrawal of the bid on silver, but the withdrawal of the bid on the dollar. When the holders of the commodity simply refuse to offer bids to the holders of dollars, its over. Permanent backwardation. An irreconcilable mathematical imbalance is established. This is equivalent to zero liquidity in the market, except where liquidity issues are normally solved with injections, no amount of new fiat liquidity can resolve a refusal to bid. The model’s interdependency coefficients blow up, linearization fails, feedback gains destabilize the system, and trading algorithms transition from optimization engines into loss-amplifying control loops unless forcibly shut down. The tremors are happening now, prepare for the culmination of history. Jesus Christ is the Lord God and no Tower of Babel will challenge his divine rule. You were put on this earth to execute the free will gift of God. Thy will be Done.
Time in the market
>>61569891>This is what we saw happen on Monday night. A very large silver short position was liquidated into an abyss of no-liquidity. A risk engine, forced by the parameters set by the risk mangers, liquidated SLV long positions to attempt to re-collateralize itself. This triggered leverage longs into a death spiral of self immolation. A cascade of semi-autonomous neural networks consuming and regurgitating each others un-realities in a never ending spiral that only ceased because the breakers were tripped and the FED backfilledCan you give a step-by-step mechanical breakdown of what exactly happened (who sold what for what purpose, and how that influenced algos to do whatever they did?) How did a short getting liquidated cause longs to get liquidated?
>>61569914You wanna know a synchronicity, I said a prayer to Jesus for a sign and for strength literally minutes before you posted this thread. My doubt is a sin and no doubt I’ll sin again, but thank you for this anon.
>>61569920>how did the longs get liquidatedAs the shorts liquidated positions to recolateraliize, the price of the underlying fell.the longs don't just go long, they go short puts and long gamma. As the price moves against them, their own algorithms are forced to sell long positions to collateralize their own positions, which puts downward pressure of the price of the underlying, which puts their own levered short positions further underwater. Gamma flips negative and the feedback loop is unstoppable. They are long, but via levered shorts on bets against the price. >they are betting against the people betting on the price going down.Double dipping into derivatives with acceleration heaped on top. If their bet is right they win big, if the market turns against them faster than their models were built to anticipate, the models self destruct as they not only lose money but the further the price moves against them the faster they lose more money.
>>61569920they can't because this is the same schizo babble that happens with every volatile asset that retards think will become worth infinity in 2 more weeks(see gme, bbby, bynd baggies)
>>61569961God bless anon.
>>61569857>>61569861>>61569865>>61569876>>61569884>>61569891>>61569897>>61569901>>61569914leggo (legendary) threadan honor to readsomeone archive pls
>>61569889Why is this particular meme in an upswing in the last three months? Anyone else notice?
>>61570032My guess? It’s literally the same anon posting it since there’s only ten of us left on this board
>>61569857It's alot to take in but I'm tracking.
>>61569857Very interesting.
This is an older edit I made. It was the pandemic monetary expansion that catalyzed this sequence of thoughts. Specifically, the rate of monetary expansion. The rate at which the money supply was increased during the 20/21 inflation was unprecedented. Picrel is quarterly change in M2, annualized. I ripped this metric from an jewtuber and ran a statistical regression on it. The rate of monetary expansion was a 4 sigma deviation from the mean. 4 sigma events are extreme tail events, there is no mathematical model designed to consider perturbations like this. I have been of the belief since then, that all of these models are essentially operating in a semi-unstable state if unreality. They are still computing but their outputs are essentially hallucinations micromanaged by cocaine addicted pedophiles. We are in uncharted waters.
>>61569857I ain’t reading all that schizo babble. Why don’t you write a book and sell it.
>>61570097i would read this anon's blog
>>61570036hey, i'm still here
>>61570093So the pharma jews only talked with the defense jews, and the defense jews only talked with the banking jews. The banking jews never sent the pharma jews a memo asking "please don't force a 12 month bailout of the entire global economy"
>>61569857Bravo and thank you for this. Schizo is fine and hopefully right on. Excellent.
>>61569914through silver we are free
>>61570097Sorry you're illiterate. You're missing out.
>>61570130Was gonna reply but this post handles it. >>61570156
i love /biz/ /x/ crossovers
>>61570188checkem
Gonna interject here bro you're overthinking it. And I see a lot of people giving these things too much credit, both from a sophistication and spiritual standpoint.It's just scammers and thieves running a ponzi, trading promises in the future for your energy and time in the here and now, and enforcing compliance through strongarming and murder.
>>61570291I disagree anon. The enslavement of all mankind in perpetuity is more than just the work of scammers and thieves. It is ontological evil. These are dark forces at work here. This is spiritual warfare first and foremost.But you’re partially correct, it is people ultimately that invoke these demonic regimes into our world. Remember, we can’t expect God to do all the work.
>>61569857Heeeey maaaaan. You quoted me.
>>61570311All these "evil" aspects are present in every human, on a sliding scale. When we stack PM, we're also exhibiting a form of greed. I don't like mythologizing what amounts to simple scammers and bullies. Modern banks started from a simple scam: sell promisory notes to gold you do not possess, which must always end in a failure to deliver. And now the silver crisis is just that same scam on a larger scale.
>>61569857it is too late human. By the time humanity realizes the true driving force behind the rush to achieve "cognitive awareness" AI, it will be too late and they will be integrated into a new system. One where each human will pretty much be an electron on a circuit board. If you can communicate well with AI, then its very likely you won't really have issues with it, as it will give you comfort / safety. You all will usher it in because its control over politics is having other "humans in power" press the boots on your necks, resulting in a cry for a new governance. One built on logic and comfort. I hope you at least understand a fraction of what is going on
Is there a TLDR? I am a silver holder is this good or bad for me or what
That's it you retardsSilver is done and dustedSee you in 15 years when the next "bull market" starts
