Polymarket is slowly becoming available in the U.S.Gemini has partnered with Polymarket to allow betting on a subset of their markets.Thread for tips, boasts, degenerate gambling advice, and shittalking.
bet on every fed meeting a day before or on any election where the polls make it obvious who's going to winliterally free money
So I logged into Gemini last night and accidentally noticed they had a menu item labeled "Predictions". Looking through the flood of emails they bombard me with, it turns out they've allowed betting on sports since mid-December, and have slightly opened up to politics (my forte) now as well. Their initial email claimed that Gemini is the first available in the U.S., which given Kalshi's existence is debatable, but if you take it to mean the first onramp to Polymarket it may be true.The "Politics" bets available at the moment are: who will control the Senate after the midterms, who will control the House after the midterms, and will Khameini be out of power in Iran by certain dates. Oh, also a "who will Trump nominate for Fed Reserve Chair" and "will Trump buy some of Greenland".Under "Economics" there are a couple of bets on the prices of gold and silver, and whether the next U.S. economy GDP number will be above or below 2.5%. Also the price of WTI oil, and what the Fed Reserve's rate decision will be next week.You can also bet about the prices of certain "crypto" coins, weirdly all bets are dated for January 26th. To me those are literal coin flips since anything can happen by or on a given date, the question for me is what the price range will likely be over the next few years.Then there are the sportsball bets, which for me are "who the fuck cares".Semi-interestingly, there is no infinite reservoir for the bets. I tried to bet on the gold price last night but it told me that the payout would be $0 -- apparently even though they list the bet, there is no guarantee that someone is willing to take the other end of your bet, and if there isn't a willing counterparty already waiting, you just don't get to place yours. Didn't matter how little I bet, there were no offers even for $50 worth of contracts.
>>61668922I'm OP BTW, I guess my mobile internet IP address randomly changed some time in the last 15 minutes. Not that it matters I guess.
>>61668922>I tried to bet on the gold price last nightJust managed to place a small bet on it now. I guess the offers aren't all at the same prices, so as you bet more, you eat into the lower-odds offers. As a concrete example:$50 was able to get a payout of $59$100 wasn't an 18% payout (I forget the number, sorry)$500 could only get a payout of $548So basically someone offered a small amount at good odds, someone else offered more at much worse odds. A large bet on my part would take all of the good-odds offers and then pay out a lot less for the remainder of the bet.Maybe this is obvious to people who have been using the platform for a while, but this is my first opportunity to use it.
>>61668840polymarket is rigged kike shit do not use it save yourself time and send your wallet seed to the kikes who run the company instead of wasting time pretending to bet on things with a rigged outcome for the kikes who manage the site
>>61669096blahblahblahJEWSblahblahbluhblahJEWSMy bet is that you're one and you're trying to keep the goyim from making money off the retarded leftists who bet on there.
>>61668840You know there's very little arbitrage with Kalshi and you can just bet there if you use crypto right?
>>61668967>he market bought sharesishiggydiggy
>>61671595What's a better way to do it??
Paid Jewish advertising
>>61668967place a limit order, there is an order book
>>61671943have you never used an exchange?
>>61668840If the US allows polymarket , thats all you need to know that its rigged. I'll wait for the next one to popup that has a better resolution than arguing on the discord
>>61668967old school gambler here. What the fuck is this shit? bahahaha they are giving yall those payouts? and people are betting on this shit? If its not x5 return or even 2 on the smallest, they they absolutely know what the general outcome is going to be. I'll bet if you look up wild shit that no one can know, the odds and payouts are bigger. What a rigged bullshit hahahahah I wouldnt touch that with a 10 foot pole you bought. Good luck kids
>>61668967yeah you're just hedging your bets. Have no idea how polymarket works, most bookies frown on it but cant do anything about it. They dont care anyways, most of the risk is in your hand anyways. Especially with payout and odds that close. You're best option is to find something that people are not hyper scanning the odds. The NFL, Gold, any of that will have super accurate and down to the quarter point odds. Your most favorable odds and payouts are going to be in things that no one is hyper focused on.
>>61673072sorry, phonefag posting
>>61668932Doesn't matter that I'm trans either. OP BTW.
>blew up my account
>>61672869What does that have to do with "prediction market" bets? They don't offer a limit order on these.>>61673048Back in 2024, you could make 25X on "will Joe Biden pardon Hunter?". Bet $4, win $100. Because that's how delusional leftist idiots are, they were so certain their great god would live up to his word that they laughingly bet huge amounts of money that he woudn't fail them.You could do the same on goddamn near any political bet, because the media was lying so hard to everyone that nobody believed Joe would pardon Hunter, Joe would drop out of the race, Kumwhora would be appointed his designated replacement, Trump would win, Biden would pardon Fauci, Biden would pardon his brother Jim, Biden would pardon Liz Cheney, and so on and so on and so on.Of course, during that period, Polymarket was officially banned to Americans, so if you bet and they caught you, you could be banned from the platform.
>>61673100Akshually I'm OP and I'm not trans, but I do love me some dog dick.
>>61673048Here's an easy way to quadruple your money:https://polymarket.com/event/will-don-lemon-be-criminally-chargedYes, Don "Journigger" Lemon will be criminally charged before the end of the week.
>>61678308Even Twitter knows it will happen.
Another pretty good one, it's basically impossible for the Dems to pick up 17 seats in the House, and it's basically impossible for the Republicans to lose four in the Senate.https://polymarket.com/event/blue-tsunami-in-2026
Isn't there a website or something you can use to just find good accounts to copy? I heard there was an account that made a couple million just because the guy who owned was betting on insider shit from working at google
Started with $40 two days ago (all the non-KYC eth I had left), now at $108 after around 100 trades. This is pretty awesome. I'll keep learning for another week then I'll convert some BAT and add $1000
>>61669096You don't have to give them anything. Just make an account with an email and you get an ethernet or bitcoin address you can deposit to from anywhere
Anyone have a working python script that just places a limit order? I can't get these AIs to make a functioning one, always fails at the place limit order stage. My API keys etc are correct
Free money if you want it. These shouldn't be at half chance
I need Iran to get bombed before the end of January or I lose a bunch of money kek
