As an Eastern European, what economic impact will blockading the straight of Hormuz realistically have? What effect will this have on my holdings of the US dollar in particular?
get your ass back to /pol/ you retarded hasbara larper. Or better, stream your suicide
>>61919949Nothingburger.
>>61919956I feel like legitimate financial discussions don't belong there.
no one cares about poor and irrelevant eastern europejust move to germany and stfu
>>61919966Oh, you think you're safe? Should I have written "as an American" instead? Or better yet nothing at all?
Its not 2003, this shit is mitigated+ priced in
>>61919965get your ass back to /pol/ shill. Nobody gives two shits about the script you were contracted to propagate in this frame
Half this site is bots, and half of what's left are edgelord teenagers. "As an American", the majority of normalized peers are not playing some kind of "fuck everyone that's not us" anthem on loop 24/7, but you'd sure think so reading this kind of shit
>>61920001based
>>61919949If you don't already hold LMT or XLE then you already missed the opportunity to make money on this event.
>>61920001>fuck everyone that's not usyeah no, americans actually do think this waythat's why they elected Trump twice
>>61919949Iran said they wont block it. Retarded media.
I think 20-25% global oil and gas comes through it. Plus the offshore rigs are in danger also.
Keep an eye on Suez. Egyptian population is boiling at the government currently. Of that closes it compounds things.
>>61920037Why are you lying?The IRGC has orders to block it retard
Reminder that Uncle Jeff specifically recommended shorting shipping futures under precisely conditions such as these.But is even that priced in?What if the whole thing was a masterminded plot to snag liquidity over this exact scenario!Oh the madness never ends.
>>61919949Dollar will be fine, US economy will be fine, countries that import crude oil are loosers (China, Europe). It depends a lot on how long this conflict will be.
>>61920149CPI is at 3.5 because of low energy costs. Inflation is about to get out of control again. Rate hikes incoming , gonna need the ol volker raise to 20% to fix this
>>61919949As an Eastern European most of your petroleum an gas comes from Russia, despite what the media larpers and politicians will tell you. In practical terms this has no impact on your life. In realistic terms the corrupt politicians will conspire with oligarchs to raise food and gas prices and any other products they can get away with and to calm the masses point to Iran and say>But look what's happening on the other side of the world it's not our fault just look! We must support Israel and pass more anti-semitism laws for cheaper fuel.
>>61919949>what economic impact will blockading the straight of Hormuz realistically have?We will see on market open what happens; and more importantly, over the coming weeks, what happens to the price of oil. Right now, on weekend trading CFDs (very low liquidity, not a lot of accuracy to the real open, but still merit in looking at how they are trading) oil is up more than 9% - if this were to carry over to futures open at 6:00pm EST tonight, would be $73 WTI. This is not a high enough price to cause a crisis outright, but, if the price continues to trend higher, especially if oil ever goes above $80 a barrel, we unironically may see a massive global economic crisis. This would occur because bonds worldwide have been priced/trading assuming there will be a cut in interest rates due to economic weakness. However.. if the price of oil was to sharply rise and continue to rise, this will completely destroy the ability for central banks to cut interest rates, as the price of oil is (arguably) the single most important input to inflation due to its use in 10,000 products/byproducts & how it is used for transportation of goods and services. Banks & credit institutions are already extremely underwater on debt holdings -- if inflation surged higher (and right now, inflation is already trending higher: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index-monthly-change) it will force a violent repricing in federal funds futures / rate cut expectations / a sharp rise in interest rates (meaning a sharp decrease in bond prices); literally may cause hundreds of bank failures world wide I want to emphasize that this is the worst case scenario to come from this, where it's a lot more likely that the price of oil stabilizes in the $65-80 range and then demand decreases from economic output have it downtrend in price again - crisis averted, nothing burger 80% chance nothing burger20% chance financial crisis
>>61919949>>61920189>What effect will this have on my holdings of the US dollar in particular?It depends if the US dollar is still seen as safehaven currency in a crisis like this. In general, the dollar has been seen as the least dirty shirt in the laundry basketHowever.. it seems in the last year or two that this narrative is buckling -- hence the rapid rise in the price of gold & silver [alternative currencies to the dollar]Historically, the dollar would do well in a prolonged conflict scenario, investors worldwide flight to dollar in times of geopolitical uncertaintyTheoretically as well, if the price of oil were to sharply rise and continue to rise, buyers of oil worldwide would need more dollars to purchase the same amount of oil, demand for dollar rises - dollar remains strongIn addition, if there was fear of inflation returning, forcing higher interest rates, the higher that US bonds yield, the greater the demand to buy US bonds as the bonds are more attractive as an investment; the bonds can only be purchased in dollars, so demand for dollars also risesHowever, every crisis is different - history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes; so you never know if this time may be different. If issues of US solvency become evident, then the dollar will completely and utterly shit the bed80% chance dollar rises in value relative to other currencies20% chance dollar shits the bed
>>61920030If you think the outspoken earth-is-flat MAGA cases or the screaming purple haired leftoids are the average American, you're far off the mark. Believe it or not, most of the smart ones see all the noise and speak softly with one-another while the retarded kid in keeps huffing glue and screaming in the classroom. And the average american isn't pleased with either side of our politics, mainly because corporations are running our governmental policies through corrupted systems, instead of the government keeping corporations honest, as it was intended. The Internet isn't accurately representative of the real world, kiddo, and the powers that be prefer you to hate any fucking group other than the man behind the curtain. So keep finding pencil thin bridges of reason to hate your fellow human over sex, skin color, religion, sexual preference, home country, hell, hate the police and the soldiers, as long as you keep hating each-other and devolve into endless bickering over who's getting fucked harder so you don't collectively start looking at the commonality systems in place that oppress all of you, like the brainless sow that you are.
>>61920001Low test post
>>61920161This. There's not an unbiased news source in the world, and the best you can find are aggregation sites that try to balance polarising views. You're like sheep to slaughter, following the brainless sheep in front of you without a thought, and I am here for it.
>>61920189>We will see on market open what happensDepending on additional news tonight, I was already in my gut feeling the mood of exchanging some of my dollars after a slight recovery against my currency this month. But it could be nothing more than the usual speculation mood-swing based panic if there is a sell off.
>>61920286>>61920280> Self-reporting example offers itself for submission
>>61920304>le enlightened centrist Is it difficult breathing up there on the peak of the bell curve?
>>61919949Buy oil tanker stocks
>>61920408> Low test post> Le enlightened centrist Yes, it is. Do carry on, you absolute unit.
