>Stocks dropped>Bonds dropped>Internationals dropped>Gold and commodities dropped>Crypto dropped>Managed futures dropped>All sectors dropped. Utilities, energy, real estate, consumer staples, financials, healthcare.Asset portfolio bros wtf are we supposed to hold? This goes against every portfolio theory I've read. Every asset is negative.
wait until Friday
>>61932626what's on friday
>>61932613Cash is king!
cash
Software didn't dropwhat's that tell ya
>>61932627reactionsthey happen every fridaythen people talk about it over the weekendwhich changes stock on mondaysit's been a pattern for the last 15 years
>>61932627
These are the only non-Leveraged ETF's with actual volume that were positive. Only 9 ETFs out of thousands. I've only been trading almost 2 years now and I haven't seen anything like thisAdvisor Shares Pure US Cannabis ETF +3.58%PLUS Korea Defense Industry +1.88%iShares Expanded Tech Software +1.63%Global X Cyber Security 1.54%State Street Software & Services +0.85Asia Defense Fund +0.83%VanECK Energy Income ETF +0.44iShares Saudi Arabia ETF +0.27Putnam BDC Income ETF +0.26%
>>61932613dollar(cash) value went up>Managed futures droppedshitty program i guess. they shouldnt be correlated to other assets.
>>61932613I voted for this
>>61932613Buy currently undervalued stocks so you can resell once the market rebounds. The best time to buy is when the market is low, and there are plenty of great deals available right now
>WWIII starts>gold and silver DROProckfags LIED
>>61932628>>61932630>>61932703Dollar can still devalue (and does devalue) in terms of domestic purchasing power even if exchange rate grows stronger.
>>61932726>and there are plenty of great deals available right nowWhich?
>>61932751MSFT is the most obvious unless you believe the AI doom posting. Could definitely go down another 10% or more in the short term but is a safe bet in the long run.
>>61932751MSFT
Cash
The only thing in my portfolio that didn't drop was TTWO, kek. Gta6 and war go hand in hand.
>>61932777>>61932778Why would you not believe the AI doom posting? Claude does everything 365 does and better and with one prompt.
>>61932814Leaving aside that most of MSFTs growth comes from cloud and Web infrastructure, MSFT both owns a significant stake in Anthropic and integrates Claude into 365 via copilot, Claude for excel etc. LLMs make too many mistakes to be relied on entirely.People were saying last year that LLMs were going to kill search driving down GOOG, but look at it now.
>>61932851If you're going to hold a single stock to me the goal is measuring how much potential growth there is compared to the risk. The risk in MSFT is too high and the potential growth too little.AI is growing rapidly. It won't be long until there is no use for MSFT or GOOGL in terms of software. You might be able to make a short term gain but it's not something I would hold for the long run. I personally don't use search engines anymore. Is the cloud enough to justify a 3 trillion market cap?
>>61932814MSFT is the only company positioned to serve gov and healthcare clients
>>61932613It’s called blanket deflation and in that situation the dollar is where you want to be. Why it happened considering the money printing/debt creation that is going right now is beyond me. Seems like coordinated selling of all assets by major trading desks across the board, potentially in preparation for the Great Taking.
>>61932613Why not buy something gay like an inverse ETF?>t. inverse etf holder
>>61932890MSFT and GOOG and two of the biggest players in AI so that doesn't hold water for me. I also don't see LLMs replacing enterprise software, instead MSFT and GOOG are integrating it into existing products. I also don't think LLMs will continue rapidly improving forever, their are fundamental flaws in the way LLMs are designed that can only be improved so much, the rate of improvement has already started to slow in the last year.
>>61932890AI is software at it's core. Machine learning models are based on software and companies will develop their own proprietary models which you can't vibe code. Companies will find new sources of revenue because there's no limit to software.
>>61932647...so wait for monday?
>>61932912What software does Microsoft have that the AI can't emulate with ease? And the second question is what will MSFT specifically add to the AI space that won't be done by pure AI companies? Microsoft just makes it harder by forcing you into their ecosystem that no one wants to use. Using Claude on Mac will be a way simpler and better process than having to use the new Windows 12 subscription based Cloud 365 AI embedded into outdated software like Power BI or Powerpoint that isn't even needed when Claude does all those things on it's own.
>>61932896Naw. More like people needed to cash so they sold what they had. The market was extremely long. Most people had 0 to very little cash. And some people and institutions are leveraged to the tits. People sell what they have, not what they wish that to sell.
>>61932934You can’t ai slop into an excel spreadsheet for a multinational company , where numbers and formulas have to be exact . You can’t run meetings In corporate America without secure email , you can’t run meetings without granular control that PowerPoint provides . You can’t manage 1000s of cheap computers remotely unless they are windows. You can’t run legacy software .Microsoft also owns 50% of open ai , you can’t have slop with out open ai . Microsoft will be here for a long time .Even if you could program all of that using Claude the token costs would be greater than the cost of just continuing to rely upon Microsoft.
>>61932934Enterprise users which is where almost all MSFTs revenue comes from still requires data to be manually entered and checked in 365 as LLMs are too unreliable. Using Claude on its own may be good enough for consumers but enterprise won't be at that point for a long time, potentially never. Losing the consumer marker will barely scratch MSFT and Open AI and Clause revenue will come back to them via Azure and equity stakes anyway.
>>61932945>You can’t ai slop into an excel spreadsheet for a multinational company , where numbers and formulas have to be exact . You can’t run meetings In corporate America without secure email , you can’t run meetings without granular control that PowerPoint provides . You can’t manage 1000s of cheap computers remotely unless they are windows. You can’t run legacy software .Companies are starting to convert entirely to AI and are moving away from these outdated programs and this includes mass layoff of workers who are no longer needed.>Even if you could program all of that using Claude the token costs would be greater than the cost of just continuing to rely upon Microsoft.You could argue all day about this I'm just making the case that the risk is not worth it. Better to just buy an ETF of all the AI companies and let the best guy win. If you're going to buy undervalued companies buy the ones that aren't already worth 3 trillion.
>>61932945None of the MAG 7 are going anywhere. Personally, I don't think the MAG 7 necessarily perform all the great stock wise. They are already richly valued. The companies most likely to benefit from AI on a percent basis are companies whose margins were tight and can now improve those margins by integrating AI into their workflows. Just liistened to an interview with Darius Dale of 42 Macro and he believes that Ex-US Small Caps are likely outperform as the integrate AI into their workflows. The big players like the MAG 7 are already tech savy and unlikely to see material cash flow improvement as they are not employee heavy. Dale believes that MAG 7 are likely to be used as pools of liquidity to draw from to invest in other areas.Overall, I think these companies will likely just chop water or best case underperform the general market.
>>61932950They said that about COBOL
>>61932965MSFT is trading at a P/E ratio of 25 which is well below and S&P average, and well below its own average for the last 5 years. This P/E is also relatively low for a company growing revenue as fast as MSFT via Azure. You can't look at a companies total market cap and use that to judge if it's expensive. MSFT by most metrics is cheap relative to the market and its own past performance right now.
>>61932965You have no idea what you are talking about . There are literal spreadsheets and legacy software that runs the world . You think people are going to vibe code and take the risk of it breaking or spitting out wrong outputs to lose money to save a dollar or two on Microsoft ? lol mass layoffs are being sold as ai , but are just an excuse . Major firms , banks , engineering, healthcare , will not abandon Microsoft because they need 100% accuracy otherwise money is lost or people die . The cost of maintaining a vibe coded program to recreate a legacy program will be more than the cost to continue running that program. That’s a reason why legacy programs continue to be used.
>>61932979Have you seen the performance of low P/E value companies the past however many years? That Warren Buffet shit doesn't work anymore. Low P/E value now means lose money.
>>61932968>The big players like the MAG 7 are already tech savy and unlikely to see material cash flow improvement as they are not employee heavyMSFT is currently growing revenue almost 20% YoY which is driven by Azure, which is driven by LLM adoption. What on earth are you talking about?
>>61932979P/E is not cheap. Median historical P/E is 16.07. Microsoft is a $3 trillion company. It's not going to grow crazy. 5yr return on SP500: 77.43% 5yr return on MSFT: 74.41% (excluding dividend)MSFT will likely perform okay going forward. IMO there's no α investing here.
>>61932982>You have no idea what you are talking about .They're all starting to convert. I didn't say they were ready to go fully automated but every company is spending all their resources on trying to make it work. You are entirely correct that it spits out wrong information and that's why they still have people working for them. It's a testing ground and it's early but it's a fact that every company is trying to make it work. You are investing in something that all the richest companies in the world are trying to remove. Does that seem sound to you?
>>61932986I bought GOOG when it was trading at a P/E of 18 and almost doubled my money. It doesn't work for all companies but I think it's very relevant for Mega caps like MSFT
>>61933007MSFTs current growth and guidance directly contradicts what you're saying. Or do you expect Azure growth to drop as LLMs become more widespread?
>>61932613>This goes against every portfolio theory I've read.And now you understand how the economy works. This is not a hard science (barely a subcategory of sociology), and if something becomes obvious, then the big fishes will break those "theories" to their benefit.
>>61932613Babby's first correlation 1 event
>>61933018"Microsoft Reveals OpenAI Drives 45% of $625B Future Cloud Backlog Microsoft revealed that OpenAI accounts for 45% of its $625 billion future cloud contracts portfolio, highlighting the growing significance of AI partnerships in driving long-term cloud revenue and boosting investor confidence."https://valuesense.io/news/microsoft-openai-driving-45-of-625b-cloud-dealsHow much of this is real cash and have much of this circular finacing monoply money? How much of the money is credits Microsoft gave OpenAI that OpenAI is "spending"? FCF declined in 2025 from 2024. What happens if OpenAI goes bust?
>>61933008This is an llm maximalist moron take . If llms are soo good they will eat the economy and every job and company. In which case Microsoft owns 50 % of open ai . If they aren’t and people will still need 100 % Accuracy and reliability, and security . Microsoft will continue to print money. Imagine being the cto of a company trying to secure and maintain vibe coded apps , and to check the edge cases on those apps to ensure the outputs are correct . You would need to hire hundreds of people , or you could just pay Microsoft . It’s the same reason why you don’t go out and build your own car, cuz it’s cheaper just to buy one made by a company that specialized in making cars . Llms are not agi , and humans will remain in the loop for important tasks that need to be exact. Not only that llms are opaque in the way they generate results so you cannot rely upon them for exacting tasks at this point . In either future microslop is positioned to continue to make money.
>>61933047Open AI just secured guaranteed and reliable government contracts, I was honestly nervous before that but more confident now.
anyone know if nvidia, apple, or teradyne will recover? i would just like to get back what i lost i dont even care about profit at this point.i lost so much so fast lmao
HGRAF dropped and then closed up +3%. Going to double digits by Friday.
>>61932613Satellites/rockets seem to be relatively ok. The only ones in my portfolio not totally shitting the bed anyways.BKSY was up 5% today, LUNR up 1%. Kind surprised PL was down, but they had a great day yesterday.Otherwise everything I had was red. Except DAVE, because the lower and middle class are really struggling right now and need that $500.
>nice tip to look intoSupposedlly theres a company called MOBX that is about to fill a fuck ton of orders to resupply the tomahawk cruise missile inventory that was just dumped into iran. Apparently more than 4 or 5 thousand fucking tommys obliterated iran over the past few months.Im not telling you to invest in this company. BUT>previous volume +389 milliontodays volume>+1.39 BILLIONstock climbed +532%its worth googling and other forms of research
>>61933095DAVE seems like another KLARNA—giving loans to low credit people. If a recession starts, and people's homes are being repossesed, you think they're going to pay DAVE. Melody Wright follows the housing market, and she thinks there will some weakening in housing market of Q2 2026 because Trump admin stopped the unlimited forebarence that started during COVID. The housing issues may affect uncollarized lenders like KLARNA and DAVE.>>61933118MOBX is up 5x in a single day. I think the move's over.
>>61933118Goddamn, nearly spit my drink out at that one day gain.Their financials are absolute dog shit, though. They've got no money so hope those contracts pay quick. Still kind of a tempting gamble....
>>61932968>None of the MAG 7 are going anywhere.TSLA
>>61933135I don't disagree, people definitely aren't going to be paying DAVE. But the gimmick is working for now. I don't expect it to work long term, especially if things get worse people on the lower end of the income spectrum.
Anyone have any thoughts on PYPL? I bought some after its crash (avg price of $45). P/E of 8.58 and Dividend 1.21%. FCF looked fine. Balance sheet looked fine. Managment said it could buy 15% of float. Looks like could double through just P/E expansion even if the business does nothing. PayPal just needs to not shink. What's the major downside? Looks like an aysmmetic bet. Downside: 10-20% (max in IMO) // Upside: 2x
I'm not worried my portfolio is hedged with the best house music playlist. What good will all the gold, ammo, booze, and food be in the world without a kicking house playlist.Exactly
>>61933191A good liveset beats any playlist
>>61932613if all sectors drop, doesnt that mean a strong conversion to cash or digital currencies?Digital is dead, so only can mean cash or money left the system/was destroyed entirely. Wht does this mean?
>>61932739sure but that happens over months not days
Thanks orange nigger
>>61933176I stopped using PayPal last year because of scammy conversion rates. They convert every transaction a few times behind the scenes and skim off a couple percent, and I hadn't even noticed for 10 years.
>>61932613>wtf are we supposed to hold? Shorts
>>61932613>not knowing about the permanent portfoliongmi25% Stocks – For prosperity and growth.25% Long-Term Treasury Bonds – For deflation/recession (they typically surge when interest rates fall).25% Cash (e.g., T-Bills) – For recession; provides stability and "dry powder."25% Gold – For inflation and as a hedge against currency crisis.
>>61936980They all went down
>>61932650Chicken Nigger?
