The US has 10 days to clear the strait of Hormuz or global markets will crash (not a hyperbole)At first, markets brushed off the conflict as another 12 day war. However, realization is setting in that Iran is actually capable of deterring passage through the Hormuz strait by 90%. The problem is that every day that goes on is the equivalent of shutting off 10+ billion barrels of oil every single day. As storage becomes full, producers are forced to shut in production, which takes 2 weeks to restart. Thankfully, most of the world is fine for 1-2 weeks without gulf oil. After that, problems begin. Oil will reprice a geopolitical premium and $100 is LOW for the magnitude of production shutdown. What happens: bond yields will roar to new highs as a huge wave of inflation begins. All rate cut probabilities get removed, and you will see the traditional end of the business cycle, high oil prices will turn growth into recession for most economies. None of this is priced in equities. And the longer it goes on, the higher likelihood of it happening.How to end it? Trump has fallen for a Trump. There is no way to clear irans fast mountain ranges littered with AD and missile silos, thus tankers will keep getting shot in the Hormuz strait. The only way is to put troops on the ground. Don’t really care if you think I’m a permabear or a doomer, I’m just giving you a warning that for whatever reason, equities don’t want to price in. They don’t understand that this is an existential war for Iran, it’s not some “geopolitical dip”.Pic is Asian jet fuel prices
>>61938341Slurp XOP? Wut do
So should I sell my TLT?
>>61938341>I’m just giving you a warning that for whatever reason, equities don’t want to price inTrump spent all of last year insider trading and TACOing so he's not trustworthy anymore
nothing ever happens
>>61938345Ironically enough there is no TACO in this conflict. If he abandons the war Iran will continue until the gulf states pledge to expel all American bases/presence (not happening) or Israel is a parking lotThere is a higher likelihood of boots on the ground than that. I don’t know how the market would view boots on the ground
How to make money off the price increase making many projects and small caps viable while not getting fucked by the accompanying global recession that stifles demand and growth. The water is so choppy anymore it’s hard to do anything but hang on.
you have 10 days until I lite your underpants on fire
>>61938341This is the exact rationale I sold half of my portfolio yesterday. If nothing changes and those tankers stay parked I'll sell most of what's left tomorrow.
the strait is clear, Iran has nothing to enforce the blockade with
Alts will go down another 30-70% this year
>>61938390As long as the iranians have relatively free range to operate at the shore they can use cheap munitions to hit the slow and large carriers and tankers if they want. As of now they hold the cards to a large extent no matter how much Hegseth spews his dumb hoooorah shit.
>>61938399>As long as the iranians have relatively free range to operate at the shoreThey don't though, you need a launcher to lob even their smallest motorbike-engine drones and US and Israeli planes are hunting them 24/7. The warheads on these Shaheds are way too small to stop a ship anyway.Anything bigger than that is already dead
>>61938345There's no TACOing now. They fucked up just like Russia did, so now there's no option to dissengage. >Trump pulls back - Iran achieves geopolital victory and takes control of 1/5th worlds oil supply >Trump occupies Iran - 10 years of insurgency
>>61938402Literally happened yesterday.
fucking retard trump, how can an administration be so fucking stupid, didn't this netanyahu who seems way smarter than trump see this coming, is the world run by literal dolts?
>>61938402Nah, it’s simply too close to Iran. Putting anything in the sea or air 25 miles from silos is just asking to get blown upOnly way is with ground troops stationed on the coasts
>>61938425We has exactly one administration left to NOT do something like this and turn it around by investing in industry instead of another war in the middle east.Well, time to accept an entire generation of diminishing wages and returns on capital. Probably a currency crisis by the end of it. Fucking hell
>>61938435>>61938425We had*
>>61938425I'm beginning to think that one of the underlying objectives was to tank the economies of EU, India and asia as whole. One way to onshore manufacturing and heavy industry is to be one of the few places with relatively cheap energy and the US is surplus producer of oil. I think those WW3 scitzos might have been onto something.
>>61938445the us can't supply the world with oil, not at the scale the world needs, the venezuela plants will need a couple of months to get back to steady levels and most of the world's refineries can't even process it, also the us also buys from the middle east since it's so spread out and big, it doesn't have like a standardized oil policy despite being a net exporter, it's a clusterfuck of fuckups, the only way this war ends is if the israelis vote netanyahu out, or if a coup happens in israel, or if he resigns, this could get very ugly very fast
>>61938341what part of you VILL have nothing you failed to understand?
>>61938452That’s what he is saying. It would be the best place to invest in after this if it works out the way he’s explained it
>>61938457but even if the us exports surge, they still can't meet the world's oil demands for things like daily vehicle use, how is this supposed to solve that problem, or house heating, or electricity production, you can't recalibrate an economy to stop using oil in 2 weeks, if this was the plan, trump and netanyahu would have held off for a few months till venezuela's plants were running again, there would have been some alternative
>>61938472Let me clarify: it’s not about theUS supplying oil to the world. It’s about the US being the best place to expand production because everywhere else has unreliable or energy.
10 days, two more weeks?
>>61938472>>61938487unreliable or expensive access to energy*
>>61938341hormuz doesn't matter at all for US. has 0 influence on us. the war will have some impact but it doesn't really matter, the most impactful part of all this is shelling out free money to israel which lowers trust in the market. as well gay oil and energy companies taking advantage of the already strapped consumer yet againinstead of domestic energy being invested in jews need that
>>61938487that logic still makes no sense since if it works, you are bankrupting the world, who will buy your goods if they don't have energy to run their houses or drive their cars, energy is a basic need, after food
>>61938341irrelevanti sleep
>>61938506A normal person isn’t the investor here lmao. You think billionaires, multinationals, and global investment firms will be struggling to eat?
Retard here, so what should I put my money into long term?
>>61938506>>61938517It won’t be production of everyday goods m8
>>61938517no investor profits in a scenario where peasants don't have access to basic needs, this is a retarded argument
>>61938341This crisis will be resolved in 5 days 5>>61938411>>61938425>>61938428 There is no reason to be this upset. Jews and Sauds and US and shipping companies are cutting a deal with insurance and logistics guarantees.
>>61938522Okay what do you think will be produced here and how poor do you think the whole world will get? You’re being hyperbolic.
>>61938506Logic? Introducing a financial tactics from a hundred years ago (tariffs) to somehow try to force companies to produce shit at higher cost in you country and thus fucking everyone over, where's the logic in that? We have entered the Idiocracy timeline, abandon all hopes of competency and reason.
>>61938528yes they can cut all the deals they want, it doesn't guarantee tankers won't be bombed, remember that the red sea is also being chocked by the houthis
>>61938532what do you mean, what will be produced, the rest of the world relies on propane gas and kerosene for cooking, not like in the us where electricity is cheap enough for induction cookers, there's also the issue of jet fuel for transportation, there's also electricity generation that relies on diesel, vehicle fuel, etc if this is not available for one week, what do you think will happen to the rest of the world while they wait for the us to ship them consumer electronics and other non essentials, wtf are you talking about
>>61938544You’re obviously confused and I no longer want to explain shit. Good day
>>61938536Anon shipping doesn't stop. It can be delayed but it will not stop. These guys are always under threat, what has changed since the days of black beard? Irgc, hezbollah and the various ragtag sunni and shia militias funded by iran and hamas will extremely soon lack enough firepower to seriously damage these big ships. The guy who said they're about down to lawn mower engines is right. It actually makes me furious we lived in global fear for 50 years because of these psychos and nobody had the political will to go in and finally kill the main bad guy after all the expensive boondoggles chasing their shadow.
>>61938425Bibi doesn't care, this was all his doing anyway. The goal is to remove the final major opposition that Israel has in the middle-east and they can do whatever they want because USA will bail their asses both militarily and economically if anything were to happen.
>>61938569What is israel's next goal after iran? Dont say greater israel, that is retarded.
>>61938341Sure, but all of this can end in 1 message.> Hormuz Strait open againWill it come at some point?
>>61938578Slowly choking out the palestinians until they either just leave or get replaced.
>>61938587It literally is open rn. It makes me so mad stupid people have careers and families and money but I just seethe here being right about most things just watching the fucking world obliviate itself. It is so maddening. I wish i ruled over all of you.
>>61938594Not really, insurance companies refuse to cover the ships if they get into a war zone.And there have been some attacks on ships already.This pic is right now. Ships are clumping and not moving.
>>61938592The arab states with millions of palestinian refugees who refuse to recognize palestinians as citizens of their countries must have a reason to do so...
>>61938601>most are underway with progressing ETAsChang, i need a job badly. What is pay like as a wumao in the big '26?
>>61938617Are you trolling or retarded?
>>61938341Ok cool but whats the thing with this epstein guy and the gorillions of non-existent dollars pumped into a failed ai experiment?
>>61938341Based analysis. Credit markets are breaking, global central bank credit is rolling over, Hindenburg omens stacking, net savings as a % of gross national income going negative for the first time since 1929, bull steepening while the 2 year is mirroring behavioral crisis onset, 10 sigma VaR daily moves between asset class split plays on momentum moving between Korean stocks and bitcoin, bank heads messaging 2008 part deux and warning of a cyber attack from Iran, etc. Markets were going to crash anyways before anyone even mentioned Iran, this is just the narrative, just like repo blowing up in September 2019 and then March 2020 (covid) and 2001 (9/11). Oil priced in yen triggering unwind in global carry leverage will be a catalyst and spark for the rest. Look out below and buy when we're there. It's about to happen again.
>>61938664In english Doc
>>61938341what does this mean for my physical gold?
>>61938402The ship crew are civilians not military
>>61938578or what anon.this is was the goal all along.to create political system where Israel controls the entire middle east and doesn't face any oppression.that's the only way Israel could continue have economic growth without relaying on foreign aid or selling military weapons to other countries
WTI about to break 80, markets will start to realize the implications of this Also Iran is hitting gulf oil infrastructure hard this morning, after everybody thought their daily reduction in missiles meant they were on the verge of defeat
>>61939905Trump's a fucking idiot and I'm tired of pretending otherwise
>>61938341ai slop. fuck off
>>61938406>>Trump occupies Iran - 10 years of insurgencyIranians will never do an insurgency and the people who think they're like afghanistan fundamentally don't understand iranians.
>>61939954I remember morons saying Iraqis were soft handed state coddled urbanites. morons (Republicans) never learn.
>>61939954they're worse, same geography but more numerous and more prideful
>>61938578Round up all remaining Palestinians and load them on barges by force and report them to the Congo or sudan or some other failed state. I'm sure they'd absolutely love to recapture the Sinai too but I doubt then ever go that far
>>61939974I don't remember anyone ever saying that, maybe you're making things up because you're retarded.>>61939987Iranians are soft handed urbanites. And if they're not, 50 million iranians will end up in germany. Suck my dick, europoor.
>>61939905So when do we get CBDCs Digital ID Social Credit Noahide Laws and One-World government HQ'd in Israel?
>>619400292030 obviously
oh no my oil stocks will moon what will i do now oh no
>>61939905As someone balls deep in euro petrolium:Oh no!
>>61938341
>>61940124advanced money doctor
>>61938370OP has been warned, he must evacuate his balls ASAP
>>61938341This special combat operation will be over in 2 weeks, just like Ukraine
>>61939974>only Republicans voted for warRemember the reaction from Democrats when Trump pulled troops out of Syria?
>>61938402A "launcher" can be made from about 3 scaffolding poles and a bungee cord. Iran has or had 80,000 drones. Trump dun goofed here when Israel tricked him into this.
>>61938341How is Lutnick making money off this?
>>61938399We'll explode the nuklear just like in the bibble.
>>61941358>Middle Eastern ChristiansI don't get why people bring up a nearly non-existent group. 99% of them convered to Islam either by choice or by force over the last 1,400 years.
>>61938341So in two weeks?
>>61941381>over the last 25 years*Ftfy
>>61938601Ships have been transiting the strait by the simple expedient of turning off their transponders.
I don't mind if Israel and the US want to be retarded in their own little sandboxes, but why do they have to drag the rest of the world into it
>>61938506The only thing that matters is that the US is the first to achieve AGI. >>61938487Is on to something here. This move, which seems to be such a blunder, is the only thing that can set China and the EU back enough for the US to win the AI race.
>>61938341>The US has 10 days to clear the strait of HormuzNo. >or global markets will crash (not a hyperbole)Nobody cares. > on is the equivalent of shutting off 10+ billion barrels of oil every single day.Ok, sot there's 1/4 of all oil that isn't getting to EU and UK. So, oil price will go up.>Oil will reprice a geopolitical premium and $100 is LOW It'll be $100 - 150 .I guess EU and UK should have not sanctioned Russia, tough luck now.
>>61938345Wholly retard. Trump made US oil independent during first term, and US is top 3 oil producing country now.Oil price going up means US gov will have more money to balance the budget.
>>61942831BOND YIELDS will crash the economy, not oil itself. With a structural 15m daily barrel deficit oil will go up every week. The only way to destroy demand is recession, oil will go up until it reaches the breaking point for global growth and blows everything up.There is no feelings or opinions to this. Shutting the strait is a 15m barrel deficit. Ask any energy expert that that does to prices. It’s 150-200
>>61942837Has nothing to do with US energy production because crude is a global market. Just ask yourself what would happen if the 30 year yield went to 7%. That’s a 30-45% dump in equities
>>61942837I'm sure Joe Shcmo on the street is going to be happy paying 2 dollars a litre to fund Israel. Do you NEET retards really live in such a vacuum?
Crypto will pump. The thesis for crypto has always been based on the collapse of the system
>>61942854Crypto is fiat with extra stepsNo fiat, no crypto
One week in so far. WTI: 65-90If this continue another week we will see 125 WTI and markets down 5%
>>61938341>What happens: bond yields will roar to new highs as a huge wave of inflation begins. All rate cut probabilities get removed, and you will see the traditional end of the business cycle, high oil prices will turn growth into recession for most economies. None of this is priced in equities. And the longer it goes on, the higher likelihood of it happening.So the XRP domino theory is playing out? Bullish for XRP?
>>61938402>Anything bigger than that is already deadIt was literally yesterday that Iran launched a Khoramshahr-4, the biggest missile in their arsenal, at Tel Aviv
>>61942837The US oil sector is small compared to the rest of the US economy. It is privately owned, so the bulk of profits go to private shareholders, not the government.
>>61938425If you are good at reading body language you can see when they are together Bibi has nothing but contempt for Trump, it is because bibi has seen all the VHS tapes, he knows he owns his ass and treats him like a dog to do his bidding
>>61939987More prideful of their shah maybe, only retards give a shit about the Ayatollah.
This Is the end.Bye bye USA.Bye bye israHell
>>61938341Yep it's exactly what I voted for.
>>61945481trust the plan, patriots are in control
