This is potentially the most consequential second-order effect from the oil crisis and almost nobody in retail trading is talking about it yet.Oil and natural gas aren't just fuel — they're the foundational feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer.The Haber-Bosch process converts natural gas into ammonia, which becomes urea, ammonium nitrate, and other fertilizers.Roughly 2-3% of global energy consumption goes to fertilizer production alone. When natural gas prices doubled after Russia invaded Ukraine, fertilizer prices tripled and we got a global food price crisis.Now consider: European natural gas has nearly doubled already in one week. Qatar - one of the world's largest LNG exporters - declared force majeure. 20% of global LNG transits Hormuz. Europe rebuilt its entire energy security strategy around LNG after cutting off Russian gas.The third-order effect: We're entering spring planting season in the Northern HemisphereRIGHT NOW. Farmers make input decisions in March-April. If fertilizer prices spike 50-100% (which is beginning), farmers either plant less, use less fertilizer (lower yields), or absorb costs they can't recover. The food price inflation from this shows up in August-October harvests -5-6 months from now.They can release strategic oil reserves. There are no strategic fertilizer reserves. Food prices are about to be fucked, and as you can see from the chart - if you get in early, you can profit. Let retards from Reddit chase oil prices around. Go ahead and wait for them at the finish line.You’re welcome fuckfaces
>>61957787>This is potentially the most consequential second-ordestopped reading here. i hate faggots who try to sound smart. judging by your pic, you think wheat is going to pump? youre a fucking retard.
Ukraine was also a producer of wheat thobeit
>>61957829I’m also right. I’m sorry you get all your trading ideas from mouth breathing retards (HURR DURR LETS LONG OIL. HURR DURR LETS BUY HIMS. Wut about muh chainlink!). Sometimes you might want to try listening to well thought out theories and intelligence for a change. Yes you fucking retard, wheat is going to asplode. But I actually prefer if you stay out; I’d rather someone like you not profit a dime off it
>>61957846Ukraine reduced the wheat supply. Iran is now reducing the ability to grow more wheat to replace it. Those aren’t the same thing, anon.The 2022 Ukraine shock alone sent WEAT from $8 to $40+. That was one disruption to one input (supply of wheat itself). Now you have the original Ukraine disruption still ongoing PLUS a simultaneous disruption to the inputs needed to grow wheat everywhere else (fertilizer). It’s a compounding problem, not a competing one.
>>61957787Or they just mine all needed fertilizers as usual.
>>61957902You are retarded manchild. Midwit if you will.You will never be good trader or investor.
>>61957787All of the price action in markets now is paper pricing, retail just jumps into whatever name they think will go up, they pump it up and crash it. They don't consider 'second order effects', if it's not something they can figure out with two brain cells then they don't jump in. That or you need a jewtuber to shill it.
>>61957997Not really tough. Things go up and down all the time, while no one cares. It's just that OP's kind retards don't have a glue what they are looking for.
>>61957829This, and its a general phenomena. Everyone today hates the nigger trying to sound like an authoritative source and is incentivized to either ignore the sales pitch or to do the exact opposite
>>61957973Nitrogen fertilizer is synthesized from natural gas, not mined. 33% of global fertilizer trade transits Hormuz. QatarEnergy’s urea plant is offline. Urea up 30% in a week. Spring planting is happening now. But sure, they’ll just mine it.You don’t mine nitrogen fertilizer. The Haber-Bosch process converts natural gas into ammonia, which becomes urea. It’s an industrial chemical process that requires massive quantities of natural gas as feedstock. The gas comes from Qatar (shut down), the Gulf states (can’t ship through Hormuz), and is processed at plants in the Middle East (several offline). You can’t just dig urea out of the ground with a pickaxe.Phosphate and potash are mined, yes; but phosphate requires sulphur to process, and 45% of global sulphur exports transit Hormuz. So even the stuff you can mine still needs inputs that are stuck in the Persian Gulf right now.>>61957997That’s literally my thesis; everyone is piling into oil while the fertilizer-to-food chain is the second-order play that hasn’t been fully priced.
>>61957787Nigga I bought 150x weat Jan 27 calls months ago
>>61957902>I’myour op is literal ai slop nigger kys
real chads are always long grain wood stone gold and ore. its called being an RTS realpolitik knower
