It's plainly obvious the US government has put a political ceiling on oil at $99.9999. How are they doing this, practically?They could tell oil companies and traders that there will be retaliation or export controls if it crosses $100, but surely that would leak out into the press? Could the US government through some proxy be trading itself, selling whenever the psychologically dangerous $100 threatens?
>>62019634Oil simply is not worth $100/b. It is that simple. Folks know the Strait will be open soon.
>>62019647more like who gives a shit about hormuz when there are 15 other straits in the world that are more important how long did the other straits get closed in WW2? germany was only able to sustain a naval effort for less than two years
>>62019647>>62019670Peak retard permabull “I’ll just put my college tuition for next semester on Robinhood and buy calls” behavior. >>62019634They genuinely are giga shorting oil futures and it’ll work until it doesn’t, and they risk literally destroying the entire futures market if Brent price takes off too far and exposes what a fraud those prices are. People simply will not trade on that openly corrupt market or they will demand delivery in order to expose the fraud.
I don’t think they’re shorting any more I think the market is just that retarded. You'll see a jump to 120 this week and millions of tradies are going to be genuinely shocked.
>>62019681Trump will make a fool out of bear panicans like he always does.>NOOOOOOOOO THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT!Kek, I look forward to eating your lunch like I did last year because I am smart enough to follow the man that never loses.
>>62019687Market is 100% still in denial
>>62019681>“I’ll just put my college tuition for next semester on Robinhood and buy calls” behavior.The thing is the markets shaken out the zoomer dip buyers. That didn't even happen during the liberation day shit. Or covid.People who are 20 something and their entire lives are confirmation bias that you can just keep buying calls forever are pausing and taking a step back. It's not normal sentiment out there.
>>62019681What is the mechanism though?Has Trump convinced the gulf monarchies to short WTI to bolster Trump politically? It would presumably take DEEP pockets willing to take heavy losses to keep this up?
>>62019694Gas is $5 to $8 a gallon. Food prices are up 50%. Hundreds of Americans have traumatic brain injuries and dozens are dead. We are facing being kicked out of our international bases and the market has already begun falling off a cliff. This is what’s happening now, today. So you’ve already lost.And it’s just going to get worse from here. Of course you’re so delulu I’m sure when the SPY is at 350 and gas is $12 a gallon and you can’t afford ramen you’ll still be saying retarded shit like - “4D chess just you wait! Hunter biden’s laptop!”
>>62019694>I am smart enough to follow the man that never loses.This holds until it doesn't, and then it falls apart hard and all are once.This is really looking like that moment, for Trump, for the market, for the US's global position.Iran has no reason to quit and can't be stopped. Trump has run up against a wall he can't bully or taco away.
I think there are three scenarios:1. Trump TACOs, declares victory, Hormuz not our problem, oil export ban. US energy craters but it's good for the US market in the short term. In the long term though the US loses its special status becomes just another country to invest in instead of an obligation, Gulf oil bucks start flowing much more to Europe, China, Canada, India, etc. Slow relatively decline for the US but no disaster.2. Trump escalates and because we live in his wish fulfilment universe somehow the straits are opened, Iran's government falls. Trump is history's unique genius, DOW10000, Greenland and Cuba coming shortly. Oil blips on the invasion but crashes down to below where it was before all this. China totally by the balls.3. Trump escalates but it's predictably a fiasco, political will collapses in the US, its scenario 1. except the the slow gentile decline is all at once, the US becomes an embittered pariah a la Russia, and most importantly there's a debt crisis in the US that causes rapid dollar depreciation and double digit inflation.Place your bets gentlemen.
>>62019751>US losing its reserve currency status which is what allows it to have a $39 trillion deficit is not a disaster for the USLOL
>>62019735Is the $5-8 gas in the room with us right now? Kek, you're the delusional one. Panicans deserve to lose, you NEVER learn!>>62019737>This time it will happenAnd the sun will total explode tomorrow, I swear. It has to happen eventually!
>>62019634They are selling their gold stockpiles to Chang, look up good sales from US to China
>>62019759It's a slow moving disaster if the US just packs it up and abandons the strait to Iran. It's a fast moving disaster if it throws everything it has at the problem and Iran still commands the strait: that's Fhuer Trump offing himself in the situation room territory.
>>62019764I don't think destroying the US in a few years is a better option at all, the US can never lose its reserve currency status, your country will have to default and then the US will become a destitute shithole forever
>>62019777The US won't technically default probably it'll just inflate away most of the debt. Worst case it'll selectively default on foreign debt holders and maybe just selectively to give them some leverage.It's not like getting stuck in another trillion dollar forever war ensures the dollars starus. There are lots of peer countries that are doing just fine without being THE default reserve currency.
>>62019634They have set an algorithm to automatically just massively short the WTI whenever its above 100$. A good move to handle the political fallout and market shock if the strait opened quickly, but as the coping ends they realize trump cant TACO out of this one its gonna create an explosive correction
>>62019841How does that unwind?
