The maturity walls are going to continually hit deep into 2029 and the FED already signaled its not going to risk its credibility again to bail out the treasury, the commercial real estate bond emitters nor the private credit market gamblers.Every bump is an opportunity to get cheap puts and open shorts
>>62071093Jerome signaled that, but he's leaving this month. The new fed chair has the exact opposite objective. We'll see if he can get it done but he's aiming for near zero rates.
>>62073656There is only one member of the board that wants to fold to polity demand, with the chair being probably also a polity dick sucker, that makes 2. Thats not a majority. The 60 year generational cycle of "Fed bails Boomers and GenX out on GenZ Millenials and GenA tab" is over. The probability for the young just defecting and destroying the tax base completely or straight out killing the old, including the board and the polity is too high if another bail-out QE ZIRP shit is tried
>implying notional number go up badYawn. Elevnteenth hundred time we've had this thread and still average maturity time for Treasury debt has not increased.
>>62074157The treasury refinancing is ironically the least concerning part of the maturity walls hitting in the next 3 yearsCRE and CMBs are already defaulting in mass per week, delinquency is exceeding 2007/8 levels, and its only April, a few local and regional banks that were big in CREs are already under FDIC.The private credit market factually doesn't exist anymore
