Can someone explain this shit to me? I know that stock market != real economy, and I know that market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent yadadada. But isn't it in theory, supposed to at least loosely map to fundamentals and signals?There is no end to war.The ceasefire is tentative and unlikely to hold.Even if we miraculously reach to a conclusion soon:The disruptions and shortages will last for many months.A significant chunk of world's energy infrastructure is destroyed and will take years to rebuild.Shortage of fuel and its inflationary effects will continue for the rest of the year at minimum.Fertilizer prices will inevitably cause food inflation during the next harvest.Further shortages and disruptions of aluminum and helium will affect many industries.And yet the market is incredibly calm and constantly rallying behind even the most obvious "damage control for the markets" news. Or hell even to the most negative news. The DOW is almost back to where it was late February. Why is this the case? The only explanations I can think of are:We are in the middle of what would otherwise have been a legendary bull run and even the colossal fuck ups in the world stage can't fully blunt it. It's simply absorbing every negative signal and keep pushing forwards with incredible momentum, only slowed down a bit.The economy, at this point is under total control of a handful of massive institutional investors like Blackrock and other funds. This historically unprecedented consolidation turned it into a fake gay circus. They call the shots, every other player is liquidity fodder for them. And they are unwilling to call the bottom yet, so the show goes on.There is no conspiracy. Market is remaining irrational for a prolonged period for some reason, but eventually it will react appropriately to current shortages and price accordingly.What else could be? What do you think? Help this retard understand.
AI is fucking here. It is that simple
>>62112276who cares nerd, line goes up
The market runs on fake news headlines now. Perception is reality nigga and reality is looking pretty good! Iran's military no longer exists and now they have no economy. That's what matters. Gas prices, unemployment, and the other real world issues you are worried about only affect the goyim.
>>62112276>A significant chunk of world's energy infrastructure is destroyed and will take years to rebuild.Oil producers do not run at full capacity, they intentionally maintain excess facilities that remain dormant most of the time. So production has not truly been affected. The sticking point is transit time and cost, much like the COVID crisis, which required supply chains to adapt to changes in how goods are transported. But again, there are many routes to transport oil, so once the routine is established, business continues as usual.
>>62112276This is your opportunity to buy your puts. Don’t start to buy them after the first -3% dump day like last time
>>62112276read about OPEC bro
>>62112400They are currently producing 2/3rds of what they produced pre-war. How is this supposed explain current market behavior?
>>62112281IGV wouldn't be bouncing if it was an ai trade.
>>62112276So what you're asking is why isn't the market panicking as much as you? The question you should be asking is why are *you* panicking so much? What do you think you know about the market - that nobody else knows - that justifies your fear? Or do you actually believe that nobody else has noticed there's a war on?
>>62112431All else equal, If trump wasn't in office yeah everything would be fucked. Have you ever played Civ? All the leaders have a special perk or some intangbile. Trump's is being able to move the entire world's sum of money from his truth social page.
>>62112276>But isn't it in theory, supposed to at least loosely map to fundamentals and signals?Here's your signal.
>>62112431read more about OPEC. why it exists. how it operates.
>>62112441hopefully op takes your advice to think critically about things.
>>62112276People are pricing in the war ending but also value loss in the dollar from the stimulus that'll be done once the recession if official. 1 dollar now is not the same as 1 dollar in the six to twelve months time.
Didn't read your wall of text but here's the deal:Stocks go up = people have more money (on paper)Stocks go down = people have less money (on paper)When fiat is printed out of thin air, it's a no brainer. They will eat the asks when there aren't too many of them in order to make their net worth goes up, so they can print even more money. Sure, they can open shorts or whatever, but nothing will beat the value of the assets you've held for years just going up in value by trillions every time the market goes up 1%. It doesn't take trillions of dollars to make that happen. At least not when there isn't too much selling, which is something people have to actually go out of their way to do. They've tamed their algorithms.
>>62112466Bro traders are fucking stupid, they're not pricing in shit. The current market is all based on headlines and counter trading Trump's tone.
>>62112448Is there any concrete data on how much extra oil the US is producing now and to what degree it makes up for lost production from war?You might downplay aluminum/helium and dismiss fertilizer as a problem for a few months later, but natural gas is pretty important too.>>62112441>>62112460Can you stop vagueposting tell me what part of my thinking is incorrect? Panicking implies disproportionate irrationality. I believe my arguments are backed with underlying data and coherent reasoning. If not, show where they are erroneous.
>>62112487>hurr durr the market is wrongNo, the market is running advanced statistical analysis on every headline based on every headline in the past and how it translated to market performance. They're also analyzing every order book in a liquid market and its rate of change. They're doing it with billions of dollars in data infrastructure and using the AI that scores of Ph.Ds have spent their whole life developing. Meanwhile you're over here scream crying because your technical analysis or whatever isn't working
>>62112519Exactly, it is running on headlines and trump posts - just like i said lmao
>>62112276Stock manipulators don't care anymore. They know what's on the horizon
>>62112276It is insane and unprecedented.
>>62112441>>62112460People will post shit like this until it actually tanks, just like during COVID where it, turns out, it wasn't being priced in at all. Market is just turning a willful blind eye to the events unfolding, gambling that it'll nothingburger out. But I do have extensive knowledge in one domain that gives me an advantage over other participants here and that's anti-semitism. Israel isn't letting this unwind, that's not how Jews work.
>>62112491>I believe my arguments are backed with underlying data and coherent reasoningAnd your belief isn't corresponding to actual reality - people who specialize in the various parts of the market aren't panicking as much as you. I don't think the market is irrational just because it doesn't do what I expect it to, it just means that I don't have enough information to predict the market, and I'm ok with that. I'm not being intentionally vague, I don't know the answer either. But I don't pretend to know more than the market, nor do I pretend to understand the market. The market is simply the market. It panics at what I think are the most minor things, and ignores wars that have been telegraphed for months.
>>62112281This and none of the currency and debt thay brought the previous ATHs was destroyed.Debt and currency creation remains full speed ahead.It's an inevitability that there's going to be exceedingly new ATHs in succession.
>>62112529no you fucking retard. The effect of trump tweets lasts like 10 minutes. Everything else is a wide variety of factors you refuse to acknowledge because you are stupid and poor. The guy you were replying to was right
>>62112563>it wasn't being priced in at allCOVID itself was priced in, what wasn't priced in was how fucked the supply chains would be afterwards. The US had seen much worse pandemics (e.g. yellow fever, spanish flu, swine flu, and smallpox) and they hadn't caused such supply chain disruptions.
>>62112276See: >>62112443The real detail is that Trump is the unabashed will of the international capitalist oligarchy. Immiseration of the labor/specialist class through AI, shifting of the tax burden off of asset holders and onto the productive economic sectors (labor), economic destruction of Asia through an energy shock (no, you will not be having a very “Chinese” part of your life), and excess population removal through perpetual war (Ukraine perfected the cost model of biomass reduction through cheap drone explosives). Things “go Trump’s way” because what we use to measure the state of things are things that disproportionately benefit the oligarchy (line go up) instead of material well-being statistics (household formation, life expectancy, etc.)
>>62112563>anti-semitism advantagekek. So in your professional opinion, are they really going for it, i.e. the messianic happenings?Or are the banking jews just trolling the religious jews along with the storybook memes in order to bring in the next post-fiat global enslavement scam?
>>62112276Stocks and markets are about PREDICTED not CURRENT, not NEAR TERM, but MORE LONG TERM than that outcomes.Uncertainty operates mainly on the latter.Uncertainty is LOWERING right now, even as there is further political Kabuki theater.
>>62112595I do think the market is underweighting Israel's intent to keep things moving, and that they don't understand how Jew's works with this stuff as well as I do. >>62112578>COVID itself was priced in, what wasn't priced in was how fucked the supply chains would be afterwards. No it wasn't, it caused a historic crash once lockdowns were announced. But I agree with the latter part, and both of these points contribute to the main point I was making. It's easy to say 'priced in, markets forward looking', but the market only exists because it's not perfectly efficient and these sudden mispricing discoveries happen somewhat often. Two weeks ago SPY was $630 and it was 'pricing in' further downtrend and escalation. Nothing has fundamentally changed since, and things have in fact only gotten worse. The only question then is whether $630 was an exaggerated movement and fair value sits closer to where we are now than it does down there. I'm betting it's closer to where we were at a couple weeks ago personally. Maybe the market is pricing in a perfect recovery, but again I have the powers of anti-semitism on my side.
>>62112491>I believe my arguments are backed with underlying data and coherent reasoning. If not, show where they are erroneous.You are reacting to the now, you are not thinking like a) the long term investors who thinks 5 years ahead, or b) the traders and institutions who sell to/buy from these long term investors.You are just a typical scared short sighted retail dilettante (not meant as an attack, it's just reality).
>>62112595>the messianic happenings?>the next post-fiat global enslavement scamIDK how far that stuff is gonna go, I just don't think Israel is gonna give up so easily on the situation in Iran, Lebanon, etc. US dipped its toe into the pool and Israel is going to do everything they can to draw us in further, especially with Bibi facing trial when back to peace time. Feels like this is his 'all or nothing' gambit unfolding.
>>62112669Long term investors also have to react to current events to forecast potential multi-year drawdowns and gauge opportunity cost and risk of longing at present levels. As that risk increases, capital would logically flow out of major indices. The market is also not driven solely by long term baggies with multi-year horizons. Big funds have annual and quarterly targets and obligations. What see unfolding now is bearish on the next 5 years vs this war not happening at all. That's not really being reflected in price action currently.
>>62112688This is hard to frame this if you're not inherently prone to conceptualizing things as probabilities, trajectories, and volatility surfaces/topologies, but: the space of POSSIBLE OUTCOMES has COMPRESSED a lot as of now. At the start of the war, it looked like it might be the case like that there might be a many-month war where more than half of the oil infrastructure in the Gulf gets destroyed, desalination plants blown up, and so on. But now it does NOT look like that MAXIMALLY BAD outcome can happen anymore. It looks like it's become a way smaller-scale affair with A LOT of the potential "branching off points" for that possible future already behind us and accounted for (and successfully negotiated around).That is why now people are less scared than at the beginning of the war, even after technically some damage to facilities has been done. It is now not possible to balloon AS MUCH anymore as at the start of the way.Hence, the initial crash and now recovery.
>>62112276> 'If the money is not in the real economy it is in financial markets'
>>62112702I'm aware of all that, and it's usually distilled into 'the market hates uncertainty'. My opinion is simply that the maximally bad outcome is still on the table, and the market is underweighting the risk of outcomes in that neighborhood (ie, not maximally bad but still worse than being assumed currently). What you're saying is, again, exactly what I described - 'priced in, markets forward looking' until it violently reprices.
>>62112718The maximum negative outcome is everyone looking out the window after noticing a suddenly bright light shines through then having their faces shredded by broken glass. In that case who gives a shit if you lost all your money betting in the markets?
>>62112702Real long way to post “tail risk has been priced to 0”. Cool, I guess, I’ll take the risk/reward of VIX calls 20xing over chasing dogshit like BAKA up here
>>62112756The phrase "tail risk" doesn't mean anything to anyone who doesn't know about tail risk.
>>62112702I also get really tired of people talking like if you don't *exactly* agree with every nuance of their take, you're wrong. The market exists because these disagreements do, disagreement is innate here. You can place your bets, I'll place mine. The truth is the market doesnt' directly express _any_ beliefs, and no one fully knows what's happening, what will happen and how price will react. I'm fine with discussing whatever but to act like you have this crystal ball that tells you exactly what the market is pricing in is absurd. If the market is one thing constantly, it's unpredictable. >>62112750The anon I was replying to was using 'maximally bad' to mean:>At the start of the war, it looked like it might be the case like that there might be a many-month war where more than half of the oil infrastructure in the Gulf gets destroyed, desalination plants blown up, and so on. But now it does NOT look like that MAXIMALLY BAD outcome can happen anymore.I still think that, and more, is potentially on the table and not being respected in the markets current pricing and sentiment. But to answer your question directly, yeah you can't really hedge against death.
>>62112756>I’ll take the risk/reward of VIX calls 20xingExactly my perspective too, cannot believe VIX is so low right now.
>>62112276LOOK AT 2008 RETARD. SHIT WAS BAD BEFORE THE EVENTUAL FALL AND THE MARKET TOOK TIME TO REACT. THATS THE CASE HERE TOO, WITH ALSO THE FACT THAT GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES IMPROVE WITH TIME, NOT GET WORSEJUST BUY CALLS. MARKETS ARE GOING UP AND TO THE RIGHT BECAUSE INFLATION AND DOLLAR DEVALUATION IS IN PROGRESS AND IS MANDATORY SO THE US GOVT CAN AFFORD INTEREST ON ITS DEBT. YOU WILL INVEST OR YOU WILL GET MUCH POORER. 2028 THOSE WHO HAVENTE INVESTED EVERY CENT THEY HAVE WILL BE POORER THAN THIRDIES AND HOMELESSTHE WAY TO AVOID THIS IS TO BUY 0DTE SPY CALLS EVERY.SINGLE.DAY FROM NOW ON
>>62112276You're just a sidelined cuck who is mad because the markets are irrational which has always been the case. You were given a chance to buy last year after the 20% correction but I guess it's not enough for greedy doomers like you.
>>62112276understand the liquidation cascade
You also have to keep in mind that when the US stock market has returned to the same dollar price, that means it has actually lost 10% of its value because the dollar itself has lost 10% of its value.
>>62112902'inflation' isnt' the answer to the 12% pump in the last two weeks.
All that bullshit you posted is already riced in faggot
>>62112956No, the inflation expectation is. Right now if you're not a complete fucking retard you should know that sometime this year the economy will start hurting real bad and that the government will attempt to solve it with the money printer and that'll pump the markets. COVID is exactly the situation you should be looking at. yeah there was a big crash, but was immediately followed by an insane gigapump. Even if you bought at the absolute peak right before the crash, you'd be in the money before the end of the year and most likely have made a lot of gains. Knowing that, the rational strategy is to just buy every single dip and that prevents the markets from going into exactly the kind of crash that everyone assumes a rational market would go in right now.
>>62113200the inflation expectation did not dramatically change in the last two weeks that would cause a 12% pump. So, no, this isn't explaining the recent price action and sentiment for me.
>>62113231it's over bobo, maybe learn to read charts? this was a textbook technical rally
>>62113451>for me.
>>62113485Uhh yeah exactly? What's your point? Everything here is subjective and up to personal interpretation.
>>62113587No anon, the blockade of Hormuz is in fact not subjective. Its an actual event that is currently taking place and the longer it goes on the more damage can be expected to be done. You thinking otherwise is just you being retarded and not understanding how the world works.
>>62112448Pure fucking speculation. The market is random and those who haven’t figured it out yet stay poor.
>>62112276>under total control of a handful of massive institutional investorsYou answered your own questionAlso:>>62112281There’s AI programs that do a lot of the day trading at these big conglomerates. They decide when to buy or sell based on data they get from other big conglomerates that are… using AI for day trading. Carrot -> stick -> forever
>>62113626Yeah no shit. What I’m referring to is the narrative that anon provided. The guy I was responding is saying ‘inflation’ is the reason it bounced back from $630 end of March. That interpretation is subjective and not one I find satisfactory. Frankly, it’s fucking retarded. At least read the conversation chain before replying. The rationale driving price action and prediction of future action is a subjective thing up to personal interpretation.
>>62113626I guess you're the same retard that suggested 'inflation' caused the sudden pivot and bounce back near ATH on March 30th. I can't believe you're seriously suggesting that everyone just woke up and suddenly realized inflation is gonna happen with higher oil prices, despite it downtrending into the war all month prior, and just rushed to bid it back up. Surely you can see why that's an idiotic rationale for the movement?
>>62112276Anon this is what happens when you can print and direct funds into the stock market. The only thing that would stop this is if the dollar grift comes to an end.
>>62112276>There is no end to war.>The ceasefire is tentative and unlikely to hold.clown world struck again
>>62114045>>62114062>this is subjective but also you're wrongI don't think you actually understand what subjective means. It doesn't mean that there's room for interpretation because we don't have the full picture of everyone's trading strategy. There are objectively things happening in the real world. Even if completely random that would be objectively what is happening. There actually are correct narratives about what is driving the price movements.
CYCLES, ignore whatever bullshit, I'm not reading all that text.This was a scandal cycle, because of the scandal the market heard there's a scandal and now it must dump. There were recovery attempts and most of them failed, and there were also crashing attempts and they all failed, but at the end of the scandal cycle REGARDLESS of what is actually happening anywhere there's a recovery cycle and a cooldown until the next scandal cycle.This is just how it is, the market is cyclic automatic trading and at some point one cycle switches to the next.>But this real world event!In the real world I would kill you.
>>62114089>There actually are correct narratives about what is driving the price movements.Any narrative is a subjective interpretation of reality since we don't have complete information. Your narrative is inflation, that's fine but it's retarded. There is the objective reality of the world and market state, but beyond that it's subjective interpretation and rationalizations.
>>62114096Yeah you fundamentally misunderstand what subjectivity is and seem to have confused with speculation.
>>62114089Also, not saying you're wrong I'm saying it's retarded. That's my subjective interpretation. JESUS fucking Christ man learn to read and understand the world around you. The only 'correct' narrative is that there were more buyers than sellers. We don't have enough information to infer further, but a sudden shift in the sentiment concerning inflation is unlikely, imo.
>>62114114No, I do not - look up the definition of the word. At any rate, if it helps you understand the point being made, replace it with whatever word gets the same point across for you, since you already know what I'm saying and instead of responding to it you've reduced your stance to a pathetic and failed attempt at pedantry.
>>62114122speculate1a: to meditate on or ponder a subject : reflectb: to review something idly or casually and often inconclusively2: to assume a business risk in hope of gainespecially : to make a relatively risky investment in something (such as stocks or real estate) in the hope of making a large short-term profit from market fluctuationstransitive verb>>>>>1: to take to be true on the basis of insufficient evidence : theorize2: to be curious or doubtful about : wonderspeculates whether it will rain all vacation
>>62114131Yes, those definitions of subjective fit exactly how I've been using the word. The soundness of a narrative is subjective, the formulation of it is a speculative process. I'm honestly not sure where you're confused here.
>>62112276It’s simple. There were enough retards shorting that someone decided to liquidate them all by pumping it.
>>62114168surely that will be the end of it.
>trump acquires the straight of hormouz>stock market
forgot pic
>>62112276Big players are trading with bots, mwe have more stupid day traders that trade with scripts. They set the price according to their astrology patterns shits. Stocks reach the price like a shitty ebay bid.big bots panic and bring down the price, stupid day traders panic and bring down the price, good investors buy the dip, bots unpanic and bring the price up back and +10%. Daytraders cry in the casino.me making a lot of money. Notice how billionaires use their media corps to manipulate prices and create panic shit. Just play this game like a sociopath jew/politician and you will be fine. Remember when the Ai bubble shit was everywhere and suddenly those fuckers got their positions and now is going back... my only problem is I dont have enough money to buy every time those fuckers crash something.
