Why is oil $90 if there is a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz?
Because its in the world's best interest that it stays below $100. Why do you want it to go up? So you can make a 10% gain? Just go buy ETH or something.
>>62116198I don't want it to go up. But does supply and demand mean nothing?
>>62116194Markets don’t give a fuck about reality anymore. The US, and therefore, the world, is so levered up right now; everyone tacitly understands that any crack could shatter the whole thing. It’s like a deliberate, maniacal and delusional optimism. We are hovering over thin air, staring at each other, each ensuring the others don’t look down, and finally incite the panic which is inevitable at this point.
>>62116205It does, thats why its 90 not 60. The fair price is 100. But demand is very flexible and supply aswell. Did you expect some x100 like from a memecoin?
>>62116194I think that they are quietly emptying oil reserves somewhere.It's probably a state secret.
>>62116205Probably because the largest oil exporter is no longer the Middle East, but US. I’m amazed that yall forgot about shale oil. You retards genuinely have goldfish memories.
>>6211619420% of worlds oil supply. What's 65 + 20%?
>>62116237It will take some time to truly handoff the full load of production.And besides that, how are the poor saudi princes and GCC nations going to cope with their absolute loss in oil revenue? I suspect they wont accept this arrangement for long
>>62116251Saudis make more money off this kek. They have a pipeline redirecting oil and have other oilfields.
>>62116194kekbaggie.
>>62116260The East-West pipeline is at max capacity. 7 million barrels a day. Saudi's were at 7.3 million a day before the war. But Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq don't have the option to re-route. Oil exports are down. 20 million barrels a day were going through Hormuz, plus 20% of the world's natural gas. And the Houthis could mess up Saudi's Red Sea route.
>>62116194Because there isn't a blockade on the Gulf of America.
>>62116272So it isnt 20 million its max 15 million with rerouting. Then we have increase of production in the usa and other countries. Then we have that countries buy more from russia again. Then we have flexible demand like asians forbitting people to drive and natural lower demand because of prices and substitution by other energies.The only jewish scam was that oil was ever at 120, that was pure market speculation. But now thats its half reasonable you call this jewish manipulation...
>>62116194thats the current market.
Here is the actual econ math with an inelastic commodity like oil.P0 * (1 + ( -dS / (ed + es) ))Where:P0 = initial price (around $65 before the conflict)dS = percentage change in supply (in decimal form)ed = demand elasticity (positive number, absolute value)es = supply elasticity (positive number)Since oil is inelastic you would use 0.1 to 0.3 for ed and es. That gives you a range from $86 to $130 depending on how you tweak the elasticity values. And that lines right up with what we have seen in the last month.
>>62116205No? POWER is all that matters, stop living by the real world standards.
>>62116194Because the futures market is completely rigged.
>>62116365>Since oil is inelasticIt's not. And I'd very much prefer it if you stopped pretending to be clever by constantly referring to elasticity and various other CNN what's hot this month buzz words.
>>62116453>one of the best examples of inelastic markets is not inelastic
>>62116365It feels like we should know this and profit from this but we are overrun with some sort of /pol/ /telegram schizos who actually dismiss any information they dont like and call way too many things manipulated and misinformation.
>>62116293It takes forever to ramp up production, and Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar can't reroute. Hormuz is their only way out.
US government is shorting a shit ton of paper oil (not real physical barrels) to keep the prices down.Leaders at the CME (commodities market) last month warned that there would be an economic disaster of "biblical proportions" if the US government played around with paper oil to keep oil prices down.
>>62116483By now you should get it that MSM is always fear mongering no?
>>62116458Every time energy prices go up factories shut down and industries go bankrupt, driving consumption of energy down. You can't eat or drink less but you sure as fuck can consume less electricity. I've just spent the whole day genning anime image sets locally. Would I have done this if I didn't have cheap energy?>bububut muh models muh studiesDoesn't mean shit in finance
>>62116489This wasn't that mainstream. Only those in the commodities community kind of talked about it.It's common knowledge that there is a noticeable spread between buying paper oil vs a physical barrel of oil. The price difference currently is about $30-$50, which is massive because there was no such difference just a bit over a month ago.
>>62116498I think the actual current price is a mega ripoff by companies who made absurd profit. They profit from the panic in the market. Futures is more realistic pricing in that it will balance itself out.
Energy market specialists all seem to have their hair on fire, while normie Wall Street types are convinced there's nothing to really see here. Weird disconnect.
>>62116569if your specialists had talent they would be the rich wall street traders
>>62116480>It takes forever to ramp up productionahem
The oil market is a lot bigger than the Persian Gulf now. All this was is a momentary supply chain hiccup and ultimately more painful for Iran than anyone else. Arabian peninsula producers will expedite shipping it over to the red sea and indian ocean. Western hemisphere producers will get more business. I mean, we just opened up Venezuela in earnest too, in case anyone can't see the pattern here.
>>62117303Venezuela is producing just as much as they did prior to us removing Maduro. Only Arabian peninsula producers shipping over to the red sea are the Saudis because they have a pipeline. I believe the Iraqis can also sell up through a pipeline up in Turkey. Qatar and UAE are still cut off. And now Iran is as of our latest blockade. The US can sell to some ships on their way to the Gulf of America but not all 100+ on their way right now. We'll definitely sell to them but there's still a supply chain bottleneck.A lot of this stuff can be replaced and re-diverted, but the timing of it all is over too long a time scale. There will be disruption and price hikes in the short term.
>>62117322It was literally just a temporary supply chain hiccup that is getting corrected. And the market overreacted thanks to speculators driving the futures up. Hardly anything has changed on a global scale. Certainly not in a "jack the price up by 50%" sense, that's just distributors getting greedy and taking advantage of the moment. Pressure drives them back down. When the barrel price goes up everyone starts pumping out more thanks to the higher margins. Oil is a very self correcting market now.
>>62117338These hiccups are corrected at a speed of 15mph. Ramping up production elsewhere still takes time. I don't think oil should be 2x or anything after just a month, but that supply disruption hasn't been met yet.
>>62116237The US isn't producing significantly more oil today than it did on February 27
>>62116194Because you are talking about futures contracts.While Brent is $95, physical oil in Europe is closer to $150
>>62116194peak oil has passedVenezuela is an oil trading partnerCanadian oil is now profitable to pump out of the ground. sand people dont control the world/thread
>>62117587>physical oil in Europe is closer to $150Wrong. Companies only pay that if they for some reason want spontaneous oil delivery. Companies get their oil via long term contracts.The prices of these move with longer term averages. So the real oil price is around 130.
>>62116194Trump starting a ground invasion? Priced in. Trump chickening out again? Priced in.
>>62116194The strait represents 20 to 25% of oil. A drop of 25% would result in 33% increase in price at an demand elasticity of 1. The price went from 60 to 90. Thats 50%, which is understandable given that oils demand is inelastic. Why do you think the price should keep doing up? Should it go up to infinity just cause youre a low iq mongoloid that doesnt understand basics of math and econ and you got longs opened lioe a moronic ape?
>>62116194To rape the goyim.Goyim always get raped in the jewish casino.Back to dealing in the real world goy.
kiked shit is manipulated as fuk
>>62116194Because theres no actual shortage of Oil. They intentionally dripfeed Oil to maximise profits within a certain price range.They'll just make more and ship it from places that have plenty to places that dont have enough
>>62119411Cool. Now tell me why the price of ram is so high. Fucking retard.
>>62116194All quiet on the happening front.
>>62120686>gets answer>spergs out on unrelated topicYou do know there's no 'winning' an explanation debate, right?If reality does not match expectations, then your assumption set is flawed somewhere. That's it. Cry about it or figure out where you need more information. Your choice
>>62120686Because there are only 3 companies in the world producing ram that are price colluding for the 10th time. (they were already sued and forced to pay fines multiple times before)
>>62116205Ding ding ding.
>>62120742You’re failing to explain how a 20% shift in allocation toward data centers resulted in a massive 200% price hike.
>>62120832>chooses to cry more instead of identifying the shortcomings of their assumptionsSurprise is going to be a constant in your life as an investor. I'm not going to do your work for you here
>>62120943You're going to pretend like I'm looking for advice from a retard on the internet because you think I'm crying about buying oil which is currently skyrocketing in price. Well that's one way to weasel out of an argument you know you can't win. But you didn't think anyone would catch that. Because you're retarded.
It's all fake and gay
>>62116365>elasticity>affordabilitystop posting fake libtard words
>>62121132>continues to cry harder and adds ad hominemYour attitude, wallet, and spirit will always be poor, simply because you choose this for yourself
>>62120742>>62120943>>62121340He did successfully identify a relevant real world case that directly contradicted his asserted understanding about market predictability, which was never addressed. Why are you pretending his relevant reply is beneath you while not contributing anything or responding to it?
>>62116194Oil was $60 just before this started. I think going $60 to $90 is reasonable if 20% of the oil is gone and the economy was slowing down anyway. $90 oil makes our crappy shale oil profitable as well and forces other countries to have dollars to buy it. It would be a good thing for us if the Persian Gulf oil is all exploded.
>>62121340I'm crying at watching you seethe over the price of oil right now. Pic related retard.
>>62116194because US government is propping everything up with fake money
>>62116194Because there's paper oil and futures market is in contango.
>>62121529No, oil is actually in backwardation right now, not contango. Which is unusual given the circumstances.
>>62121434That is not relevant to oil in the slightestIts a different market with different pressures; I could make some shit up about where that discrepancy lies, or I can give advice that there is more information needed to make sense of a market that, according to their assumption sets, is acting irrationally. That's the whole point.>>62121480Did the definition of seethe change recently? I feel like I'm trying to communicate with somebody that only very recently learned how to use the internet. I also have no idea where you got the notion I'm in an oil play at all, but you do you (that looks like its a handful already)
>>62121655The principal introduced in the original reply was a general economics concept that, if applicable enough to one market to serve as a reliable predictor of outcome, should be applicable to all, unless some form of justification were provided for why it works in one area and not others. You admit that your attempts to elucidate on that discrepancy would just be "making shit up" and handwave this off as the memory market simply acting irrationally, but then how do you know that the oil markets, with vastly more numerous and powerful political actors driving them, are rational?
>>62121655>If reality does not match expectations, then your assumption set is flawed somewhere. That's it. Cry about it or figure out where you need more information. Your choiceWhat would you assume I would be crying about? God damn you're seriously fucking retarded.
That killer of innocents that has the support of the bloodthirsty American society, well, he has sent a powerful message. He is willing to be completely retarded to save the stock market. And having a president like that makes people feel confident. We could perfectly be in a loop of 2 week ceasefires for 3 years,
>>62116237So we just lost our biggest investor. Sounds like a win.
>>62121655The market is fake and gay. Dated prices (in both March and now) were and are far over future March contract prices when there was no sign of immediate peace. Somebody is trading at terrible losses just to keep the prices of contracts low enough.
>>62116194because the US Secretary of Treasury is selling our assets to keep the oil price low
