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Betmoose.com shutdown:

All current markets have been closed and funds have been refunded to the bettors.

April 30th 2026 is the deadline for closing your account and moving your BTC off the platform.

See picrelated or visit the site at https://betmoose.com/ to see for yourself.

>>62128599
these markets are way over-estimating the chance of hormuz returning to normal aren't they??
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may

>>62128601
Maybe if I worked in the shipping industry I could figure out the details well enough to bet on, but just reading it, it sounds like there are loopholes, like whether the "IMF Portwatch" counts all the ships. Historically, do they count them all, or no?

Supposedly Trump can't continue to chimp out after a certain point because Congress would legally have to declare war. That may be what the bettors are counting on, that he'll be forced by law to stop being a stupid asshole, at least on the Iran war. Maybe he'll declare war on Lebanon for two months and then switch back to Iran, though.

>>62128599
What do you think?

I'm really starting to hate the Polymarket-on-Gemini thing.

There is zero liquidity for any bet. From what I can tell, it's not trading Polymarket positions using Gemini as an intermediary; it's more like Gemini is making its own entirely separate markets using Polymarket as an "inspiration" for what bets are available.

If someone can use both Polymarket and Gemini, it may present arbitrage opportunities since the percentages are so different, but the amounts you can lock in are tiny because of the low liquidity.