Is he right? (watch at 1.5x speed he rambles like any real estate person)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJpSphMDJZcHe claims there's a common sequence>Monetary policy - the fed tightens supply - we're at this (also the WORST indicator imo because he doesn't include a graph to show it)>New home sales decline (happened)>Building permits decline (happened)>Housing units under construction decline (happened)>Residential building employment decline (hasn't happened)>Price correction (hasn't happened)Basically he claims we're at the point where construction workers lose jobs, which causes a price correction to follow. They don't lower their prices until everything else falls apart on them and inventory spikes, and inventory only spikes when said construction workers working on new housing are laid off.I'd seen it claimed that zillow and other sites basically manipulate market data to artifically increase it to make more money, so I'm inclined to agree with him, but zillow has also decreased its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% nationally to only .3%, so they're basically claiming no growth this year will happen.So all the indicators are there except the last two, and one of those last two was just massively revised to be lower. Thoughts?
Trump will crash everything else to keep housing prices high, if house prices drop his only loyal base is gone.
Child seduce an adult...!?
>>62128736No because infinite mass migration will forever create a demand.supply issue and keep prices high
>>62128736The thing I'm curious about is that big money owns everything now. In 2008, LaDarious Jackson and friends were underwater on their subprime loans and had to foreclose. Now institutions that can afford the price tank own everything, do they prices just stagnate forever?
>>62129830>Now institutions that can afford the price tank own everythingCan they? They might rug pull with your stock portfolio having been used as collateral.
>>62128736Why would less construction workers lead to a spike in inventory?
twomoreweeks
>>62128736It won’t be even across housing types. A nice sfh in a decent area is going to keep its value regardless of rates. Townhomes are less consistent but will do fine if they’re of decent quality and don’t have an HOA. Condos on the other hand are already collapsing in many cities across the US and Canada. Insurance rates are fucking large scale multifamilies big time which just means large HOA fees and insurance premiums. Throw in random special assessments and you now have housing that combines the worst aspects of both ownership and renting. You’d be a fool to buy one now.
>>62129803>immigrants are going to buy the houses Americans can't afford to buy
>>62130037>lessfewer
>>62129770Damn stupid brat ... close tab... erection market crash...>>62130037Less buyers, but also it's just part of the chain, the end part. Once workers start losing hours / getting laid off you know the industry is fucked. It's not like it's causing it, it's the second-to-last thing on the chain before prices drop.>>62129803Depends on where you live, my area has seen a MASSIVE drop in city population in the recent years due to them becoming shitholes, but our rural countryside has only increased by like a couple percentage points. New York, so people just flee the state.Everywhere pretty much except the most hip places is seeing big dumps in population as people flee shitholes, so mass immigration is only propping something up so much.
Houses cost 500k to build new between permits, land, material, and labor. You guys gotta realize this. Unless one of those things get cheaper (they only get more expensive) prices won’t go down past that.So sure prices in LA or Miami could fall by 50% because a 500k home there sells for 2 million dollars. That could be a crash there. But go to an ordinary city and 700k homes maybe fall to 600k. There wont be any 2008 crash because all the wealthy, powerful people would try to prevent it and throw money at it to stop.
