never in my life have I seen an economist's prediction be correctthey always say some dumbass shit that never happens, what the fuck do they even do?
They are mouthpieces for whales.
>>62135300>economist notices pattern>points out pattern>market reactions, erasing patternpretty sure they're doomed to incorrect
They're good at describing what happened. But not right after it happened, they need a month worth of data to describe what it is exactly that happened and how it totally makes sense and was in hindsight completely obvious. They won't guess the next completely obvious thing but they will tell you how obvious it was a month later
>>62135300Yet another example how you don't need to know anything or have any skill to succeed in life, you just have to try and try again, and be shameless about your failures.
Actual functioning economists don't publish their findings, they get rich from them. Broken economists are used by various monied interests to push ideologies.
>>62135300>what the fuck do they even do?I think economists are just modern day druids. Instead of reading the stars and making prophecies they just look at stats and data and make assumptions and speculations. They all meet in Gaul i mean Davos every year and talk about their predictions and stuff and we're supposed to think they're very smart because the other guys say they're very smart. They probably are very smart but that doesn't mean they're actually right. And in reality i bet it's probably just a mix of survivorship bias assuming that smarter economists lead to better economies rather than the other way around>According to Julius Caesar’s Commentarii de Bello Gallico, Druids held annual meetings in a consecrated spot within the territory of the Carnutes, regarded as the center of Gaul. These gatherings served as a supreme court where Druids settled all public and private disputes,, determining penalties and rewards.
>>62135778and one more speculation from an archeological standpoint the earliest economists were probably more useful because they could predict seasonal patterns based on the stars with reasonable accuracy. But now because modern economies have become highly complex interconnected systems rather than heavily agricultural it seems high level economics became much more philosophical rather than concrete. Seems like they use data to justify their idealistic opinions more often than the reverse
>>62135689/thread
>>62135300i am forgotten
>>62135300Economics is fundamentally retrospective. Economic insights are gained by looking in the rear-view mirror, which is a poor indicator of the road ahead, because the way the economy works keeps changing as technology, scale, norms, policy and other important parameters change. When economists think they have figured how the economy works, it has already changed.The Malthusian model is a classical example. The Phillips curve is another example.
>>62135300>buy the rumor>sell the newsEveryone knows everyone else is full of shit xD
>>62136201Could have kept legendary status if not followed by an estimated 30 wrong predictions. Gamblers never know when to quit.
>>62135312This. By the way mainstream economy is fake.
The Romans invented concrete but couldn't solve inflation by the way.
If you want predictions, look for 'government preparedness exercises'. Those usually predict crises a year in advance. For example the Australian government happened to run an oil crisis scenario about a year ago. https://x.com/_/status/2045330175412551844?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
the entire field is a meme.
It's because the game has changed. Before things made somewhat sense, resources were priced in based on demand and availabilit, now it's based on speculation, geopolitical vibes and hype.
>>62135300If economists were so smart they would be rich
>>62135300Salesmen
>>62135300They exist to give the public a semblance of order. Money is essentially trust with paper and numbers attached to it. People have to trust each other in order to keep the economy running and having people who sound smart tell you that they've quantified everything and understand the economy is one way to keep that trust intact.
The economy is a complex system the same way that the weather is a complex system.They can tell you about the current clouds and pressure systems that exist today and say with some accuracy what they'll be doing tomorrow, however what's happening next month can't be predicted.
>>62135300predictions are transitory> what the fuck do they even do?enforce social compliance. They are closer to priests or commie party officers.
Economist = follow the academia version of economics, they make money off of selling their story to students and goys.Economists that make money are called hedge fund managers, they make money from reading the actual market instead of dealing with models, they benefit from keeping their information and methods private because the economy is PvP.
>>62138171>Before things made somewhat sense,they still make sense; you just dont know how or why. You not knowing =/= unknowable.The game has changed sure, but dont make excuses for incompetence.
>>62142644Yes practical economists don't go by "economist" they have a bunch of other titles and make a lot of money working for others and keeping their insights close to chest.
