>AI isn't a bubble because it's backed by earnings, unlike 200s dot com stocksCan you dispute this?
2000s*
>>62238663So?
>>622386631) A lot of the earnings are circular2) Earnings have grown with valuations - the question is whether earnings expectations have gotten ahead of themselves.
I'm unsure about it. AI is still making companies go to the moon all the time. Either investors are truly fucking stupid, or they know what they're betting their money into.
>>62238663Kek “expected” earnings 20-30 years into the future/thread
Investments will redistribute as the technology becomes more efficient, but it's not a bubble.
AI is a bubble in America because America doesn't have the power grid necessary for the data centers. China does. America can't upgrade its power grid either because this country can't do anything on a macro scale besides warfare. It would take years to catch up to China and what would be the energy source? Nuclear? This country hates nuclear power. Solar? Good luck with that when China makes 90% of the solar panels in the world. Companies will leach electricity and water off the populace until the citizens can't survive and they burn down the data centers. Then the bubble pops.
>>62238710>the earnings are le' circular!!! Reeeee!!!So?
>>62238744to meat the projected earnings, the demand has to expand to "projected" data centers, aka, they need a bunch of future data centers to meet those earnings, otherwise there wasn't the demand in the first place to earn that, soo, where are the data centers, Charles?
>>62238754>meatDon't talk to me if you're ESL.
>>62238756if you start hearing about data centers being canceled or delayed, sell fren
>>62238756how would you have felt if you hadn't eaten breakfast
>>62238762I'm pro data center. If luddites want to oppose technological advancement out of fear and ignorance there's nothing I can do to stop them.
>>62238764Go back to the whatever podcast, Andrew.
>>62238765market doesn't care what your pro or against bro, you sound retarded honestly, it will be because of lack of demand they are canceled or because the chips set to go inside are already obsolete, or oil goes up so high they can't run the exacavator or some other market reason
>>62238663bears have been comparing amazon, goog, etc to pets.com and been wrong for a decade.
>>62238768See >>62238770They've been wrong for 3 decades actually.
>>62238766to make it short, nvidia is a bubble because big tech uses legacy profits,not AI cash, to buy chips. Companies use 5 year accounting depreciation on GPUs that go obsolete in 2 years, hiding billions in phantom costs before a massive demand cliff.now show your long or shut the fuck up nigger
>>62238772im telling you how to tell signs of a sinking shipyou are telling me how this ship can't sink, unlike last shipwe are not the same
>>62238775>he'll listen to me if I call him a nigger on 4chanLol
>>62238754>soo, where are the data centersgoogle.com can help you
>>62238779I dont care if you listen, Im just here to take the opposite side of your trade so that I can extract losers' money like yours
>>62238777>bro demand needs to grow for demand to grow>if demand goes down you should sell.big brain time
>>62238775this take is so bad it has memes now
>>62238775Look at this goy thinking line will go down
>>62238787let's keep this thread alive so I can shit on your head on monday
>>62238788Prepare for liquidation on earnings
>>62238663What earnings? Nvidia has real earnings but they are based on debt that is based on valuations that take future earnings into account that are probably exaggerated
>>62238663>earningsSo was Enron, and for the same reason. Corporate centipedeism.
>>62238663dot com had no valueAI is literally replacing workers, although we'll eventually realize we need workers to double check AIs work but overall the workforce requirement is way down and it'll only grow smaller as AI makes less mistakes
>>62238663>AI isn't a bubble because it's backed by earnings,LLM companies are losing money. hardware companies are making money, but the majority of their stock appreciation is tied to enormous purchase obligations and not actual purchases. from nvidia's most recent 10-K:>Manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments reflect data center-scale production and longer future ordering horizons across current and future product architectures. We enter into agreements with our supply vendors that allow them to procure inventory based upon our defined criteria, and in certain instances, these agreements are cancellable, able to be rescheduled, or adjustable for our business needs prior to placing firm orders. Changes to these agreements may result in additional costs. As of January 25, 2026, these commitments were $95.2 billion, of which substantially all will be paid through fiscal year 2027what do you think will happen to nvidia's stock (or the stock of other hardware manufacturers) if the outlook on LLMs change, purchase obligations are walked back, etc.?
>>62238790Ya - Nvidea is the real winner.As for the other companies - the valuations to me seem very stretched, assuming earnings will grow ten gorillian percent per year.Not to mention the elephant in the room is that the AI labs are still subsidising token usage at the moment. The more people that use their shit, the more they lose.Will people pay the REAL token cost? Questionable imo.
>>62238826I think it will make companies more productive, not replace people en mass.Also, AI labs are still subsidising token usage at the moment. Unless costs come down, those companies probably won't feel too clever when they start getting charged the actual cost.I.e. Claude code farts around for 20mins and makes a mistake that needs to be re-done. That's be $20 please!.
>>62238710the economy is circular tho
>>62238853Well yeah, but in the case of AI it's not cash changing hands, it's financial trickery.Oh we'll invest in you, in return you'll buy the same amount back in our products. Oh we'll buy from you for X in cloud compute. Oh we'll provide this guarantee in exchange for....
>>62238663AI is a bubble because my high paying job will be replaced by AI so I spend all my free time AI is a bubble posting
>>62238832The power of AI cannot be contained you fool
>>62239590>he thinks chatbots are AII bet talking to parrot would blow your mind
>>62238663>picrel
>Real istate isn't a bubble because it's backed by real property, unlike 200s dot com stocks
>>62239610Theyd be better tech support than ranjeepShit less on the floor too
>>62238723>or they know what they're betting their money into.This is never the case.
>>62238743On the contrary, the past decade has proven Americans Won't Do Shit and thus will never raise a hand against their AI overlords even if they were breaking into their house to burn their furniture for energy.
>>62238663are those earnings in the room with us right now?
>>62238663Nvidia is full of fucking liars.I know their supply got bottlenecked by the essential industry that mattered.Their fooling of investors is disgusting. Don't give them money and don't be fooled by thieves.Graphics cards were never an essential computing component.
>>62238663>but muh game needs a graphics card to ruuuun uggghhh duuuhhhhGamers should be complaining about poorly designed video games which require specific graphics card programming techniques. Instead they just buy more graphics cards.
>>62238663The most infuriating thing about this graphics card industry is that it is supposedly better for AI processing, and that it is supposedly better for 3D graphics and that somehow makes it more valuable than what is actually needed to make those things and other things a reality.Their inflated value is representative of a chink in the chain. Similar to how a chink will expect you to pay $20 for rice in a western country the chink will charge you an obscene price for computing's equivalent of rice.Cut them out of transactions immediately.Remove embedded chinks in other company's which continue to insist on NVIDIA purchases. It's strategical exploitation from strategical poor programming.
>>62238870thats how the economy works, as a whole
>>62238663
>>62238723You've never fallen for a FOMO. When numbers in your bank app are going up every day you start feeling like you know the shit.
>>62238743If China does then they've already tried what OpenAI wants to do and failed.
>>62238663I think bubble is appropriate. Markets tend to overestimate expectations in the short-term and underestimate expectations in the long-term. I think the term that is not appropriate is "speculative". If you actually get past CNN headlines you'd know that the actual utility from agentic AI is quite astonishing from the most advanced power users.Using ChatGPT as your benchmark is like grandpa saying your spec'd out workstation is a pile of junk because he can't figure out how to install a program.The hard part of the bubble discussion is finding when markets retreat to safety and for how long. No one can provide those answers yet that's the only part of the discussion worth having. The dotcom boom went on for 6 years of growth with no major pullback and took 2.5 years to bottom.This is not going to be a blink and you'll miss it event.
>>62238754What do you do for a living, shitskin?Why should we take you seriously?
>>62238663fraudulent accounting, and the underpinnings of the entire thing rely on orders of magnitude more power than is currently available, which takes an extremely long time to build out and increase power supply.
>>62240292modern companies are vastly more effective. a good P/E for a 2025 hyperscaler != P/E for tech circa 2000 != P/E for a steel mill
>>62240156im a white neet who types like shit bro
>>62238743>America doesn't have the power grid necessary for the data centersthats why data centers build their own power plants near location which is even more effective and cheaper in the end.
>>62238723It's just the only option. AI either 'works out' or the entire financial system crashes
>>62238768>chips set to go inside are already obsoleteI work as MPM at semi fab company, and this is happeningMicron, Intel, ROHM, ISIS, Xilinx, etc are obsoleting parts daily that go into larger assemblies On Order by TSMC, Samsung, IntelPrices for RAM and Storage are flying because big companies are buying up the EOL parts to support these assemblies
>>62239613datacenters were never about generating a profit its obviously to create the final surveillance state
>>62241333checkedand true, it's like the manhatten project, they will blackhole as much money needed as they see it as a arms race for surveillance/military power that's not even getting into more esoteric theories about live world simulations and beast systemstill doesn't mean the market can't pull back, boomers got to cash out sometime
This bubble is so fucking gay>oy vey goyim, chatbots are AI now>these AI companies are worth a gorillion dollars>retail buys giant green candles in FOMO>AI companies get loans for gorillions of dollars based on their (((evaluations)))>loan money is printed out of thin air through (((fractional reserve)))>fake 1s and 0s dollars in AI companies accounts pays out to data center construction and enters the fake 1s and 0s accounts of wagies and are exchanged for goods needed for survival>cost of survival skyrockets>a loaf of bread is $20>AI companies dont even make money and pay their loans with new loans >the difference between chatbots 2006 and chatbots 2026 is the cognitive difference between a parrot and african grey parrot>normies ask the chatbot the most infantile questions anyone with a brain could have either worked out on their own or looked into and formed an opinion on their own>they treat the wall of text spam answer of words words words words in redditor format as some some profound knowledge given to them by an artificial super intelligence Thinking chatbots are AI has done more damage to normies in my eyes than the coof. You all need to be culled.
>>62241478No, AI is robotics, wagie robots, self driving cars, and more importantly war tech in drones and planes as well as detection defense systems they are building with hypersonic nuke satellites to shoot down nukes in space using AI missiles.
>>62241488>1488Based digits but none of that exists. We already have robotics. How does plugging it into a chatbot model with the knowledge base of reddit going to do anything useful?
The fact Plebbit keeps screaming it's a bubble is making me think it's in fact not a bubble
>>62241488people will automate everything wont they?AUTOMATION is the new cool word on the block
>>62241562Automation has been the world on the block since the invention of the steam engine.
>>62241599yeah but now it's cooljust AI everything broRobots, AI, AGI, smart machines will solve our problems,it's like everybody saying human mind is basically a retard compared to well oiled machine, lets build a smart machine
>>62238663AI is being held up by foreign governments that want to develop the first true AGI so they can predict the future, eliminate free will and control the world. That potential payoff attracts more government subsidies than the green technology grift ever could. If they never succeed the so-called AI bubble could last another decade. If they do succeed, we're fucked and the elites just don't realize they've been creating their own replacement.
well, you even got heads of states admitting we're basically in an AI arms race. Pic related. Any oldtroon that was around for the dot com bubble can chime in? Was stuff like this happening back then?
>>62238663on a very basic level, AI businesses still produce useful hardware and software that can be used in all areas of computing. It is already deployed in both private and public sectors like security systems, industrial robots and automotives. unlike the dot com bubble, this is not a gimmick. a minor crash or dip can be expected when the growth value cycle rebalances, but a crash is very unlikely.
>>62238663For AI, the only logical option for the rich is to invest. The options are as follows;1. Invest and you make it rich2. Invest and everyone dies due to AI3. Don't invest and miss out4. Don't invest and everyone dies due to AIArguably there is another option;5. Invest and lose as it provides no real life value, but who cares as you will be bailed out anywaySo all in all, the only logical thing to do is to invest money or you'll miss out.
>>62238853The economy produces real things that people need to live. When the economy stops producing real things is when inflation starts going through the roof. AI is malinvestment, they're burning trillions of dollars in labor hours on something that isn't needed yet.
>>62238663>Can you dispute this?I cant and it makes me mad.
>>62241497Look at him go!
>>62238743I'd argue that warfare isn't macro scale. Trump's fucking around is only possible because he's skirting congress and the armed forces are very much centralized. If they had only state forces that had to come together for an operation, nothing would be done either.
>>62238663It can't be a real bubble because it's new and incredibly useful new technology. Maybe it's pumped now, but in a 5 year span it's a big fat bull. Autists are losing forest in trees or nigger jews are trying to short the pump. Hodl.This should be obvious to non-niggers
>>62238743Honestly, why aren't they powering these data centers with nuke?
>>62238663AI as a category is probably finebut the companies that will get huge on AI probably haven't even been started yet. It's still possible to invest heavily in AI and buy a bunch of losers.
>>62238789
