>bond meltdownWhat happens next? How are you guys positioning for this?
>>62253616Uh... long China?
>>62253616I put it all on nvidia $10 5/21 puts
Been getting less long, but if a 10+% dip doesnt happen buy real estate with the cash...maybe a new car or some other large purchase.
>>62253616jpn is the worrying one..
>>62253616They *will* certainly break at some point, but isn't too soon yet? Could take a few more years I think.
>>62253868>too soonThe Iran war is going to cause shortages as soon as next month, including shortages that will impede the semiconductor industry = AI bubble pops
As soon as I sell all my shit in preparation for this, nothing will happen and I get left behind.If I don't sell we get 2008 pt2: Trump Boogaloo and I'm rekt for a decade.Decisions decisions.....
>>62253986It all depends on your priorities with your capital. For me, right now, the preservation of my capital is absolutely paramount because I need it to fund other ventures, so I just can’t withstand a 60% drop and then wait up. I don’t care if I miss an extra bump or whatever. Thus I sold almost everything.Now if you’re just staying passive with your investments and playing the ultra long game, doing nothing (but keeping hefty liquidities just in case) is probably the better choice.
>>62253986Schroedinger's market...it do be like dat.
>>62253616>How are you guys positioning for this?I'm sure everybody here will buy bonds now for these breath taking 5%, right?
Contrarian bet that I don't have the balls or liquidity for would be to buy the 30Y.
This is the biggest news in the world atm, why is no one talking about it?
>>62254336ya lost tranny. iran is about to make a deal.
Explain why this matters if stocks outpace bonds
>>62254341TND, TKD, TADfriendly fire, fag
>>62254341Probably not american. The rest of the world is fucked from the oil shock but we can afford it. My guess is trump is fuckin around just enough to keep us on top since the world has been getting uppity lately.
>>62254347bond price action drives stock market behavior
>>62253986Diversify to include selling some to make a cash position if you don't already have some.>>62253616Holding my equities, stopping new purchases I was making every check but they are mostly commodities plays at or near long term cap gains rate and will recover if the country is to survive in whole or part so not selling. Resumed gold and silver purchases right before it started nosediving again so I'll continue to buy those at regular intervals. Pulling additional cash out of the bank incase it get real bad plus handling bricks of cash lets me larp as a druglord. A few minor purchases of ammunition but already have enough as well as food and medical to larp as the government in my local swamp. I also got a recession proof job with niche skills in my department such that I can get away with murder. Most of these I've been planning for years. If you aren't already prepared for significant interuption then you are behind the curve. The number one prep for any situation is unironically job security. Even if nukes are inbound if you're valuable space and food will be set aside for you, travel bans and gasoline rationing won't apply to you. When we rapidly inflate your paycheck will inflate with it. Join an organization where if it and its participant members stop doing their jobs people lose money and die. Then become irreplacable at that organization. Until thats sorted its hard to be positioned for whats about to hit. It will be soon unless Trump abandons Iran very shortly. The 10 y US is the one to watch, Trump sure does.
>>62254347If inflation is 3%+ yoy with no improvement in sight and 10 year returns 4.5% who is buying these bonds? So your yields spike but you cannot afford the market rate so you engage in yield control to keep rates down, you print money to do so and once that money runs out you've got to do it again unless you use the money to fundamentally change the country. They won't though. Good news is stocks will go up but relative to inflation, that will continue to be purposefully under reported, you make less or lose in real terms on many stocks. Meanwhile the government continues to struggle to fund itself, they raise taxes rather than cut entitlements, food prices continue to rise due to money printing and this leads to riots in many cities.
>>62253808fpbp
>>62253902>sneedconductorsIt means all the business will go to american companies.
>>62253616>How are you guys positioning for this?100% BTC allocation.This is literally fiat dying, it's what bitcoin is made for.
>>62253868>Could take a few more years I thinkWhy? Because you've stocked up on monopoly money aka shares and craving to find a greater fool to dump on them?
I wonder how the rest of the world will react
>>62253616low bond yields were a historic anomaly
>YIELDS ARE SPIKING, BRACE FOR IMPACT>*Fed does QE but with a whacky name*>NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO YOU CAN'T DO THAT
>>62253616Oil and yields are tied together. If Iran holds out for 3 more months the world will kneel. But another ever happens so I'm long calls
>>62256981>impressive. very nice. let's see Paul Allen's debt-to-GDP ratio
>>62257027that debt already exists, you can't refinance it to get a new better rate
>>62257030no, but you can massively devalue the currency
>>62257032why would you devalue it massively, you can devalue it a little bit
>>62253616I bought puts on QQQ last Friday. Yesterday I was up 50% from my purchase price, today I'm down 10% from my purchase price. Kinda sucks but OTOH I was thinking of buying more puts yesterday so I'm glad I didn't. If it rallies, I'll add to my puts.>>62254348Don't forget TZD. TZD is non-negotiable.
>>62257093>why would you devalue it massivelybecause the debt and interest payments are massive, unsustainably so
>>62253616a sharp pivot to nk style draconian authoritarianism in a doomed attempt to keep the sky from falling imo
