OK /biz/, you're smart investors that can see the future, right?How is Flight 12 going to go? Total success? Soft touchdown in the ocean for booster and ship? Explode on the pad? Delayed?How is it going to go down?
>>62258019V1 blew up twice before the third time worked out, V2 blew up twice before the third time worked out, V3 will blow up twice before the third time works outPast is indicative of future returnsYou should short SpaceX right now actually
>>62258019The flight will probably be uneventful and go entirely according to plan, because Musk doesn't want bad optics before the IPO, so no risks will be taken.Regarding the slightly-more-distant future, your question misses the point. What matters is not whether SpaceX can launch a large hunk of metal into space and recover it. What matters is whether Starship can eventually achieve a quick turn-around and rapidly re-launch, because that's critical if this rocket design is to meaningfully improve the economics of orbital launch. In this design, a lot of upper stage cost and dry mass is wasted on upper stage reusability, so if the upper stage reusability doesn't work well, the economics won't work well either
