*continues to predict the price of BTC in your path*All you had to do was buy on green and sell on red, at least we're close to a buy signal nowprev thread: >>62261213
How do I use this?
>>62284885green = buy dipsred = sell ripsyellow = volatility likely, deriskthe site has a realtime FX-based confirmation layer - positive confirms buys and invalidates sells, negative confirms sells and invalidates buystoday FX is solidly green so early buys are defensiblechart gets updated every month with a new 4-week, next will be on Sunday
imagine buying bitcoin over 70K
>>62284994>Imagine not having 840,000 digital cyber hornets
>>62284814Do you really want me to debunk this lagging indicator? At best this can indicate macro tops and bottoms, but from this picture you sent here, I already see it failing in this last correction (which is not over yet).Stop spamming this and post proper indicators
>>62285034>lagging indicator?>lagging>is given 4 weeks in advanceWhat day is it today
>>62285047Bears are getting a little too cocky
>>62285047IMy bad, it's not lagging, but usually these indicators fail at big movements like what we are seeing, if you followed and bought btc at 78k you would have to sell at a loss at 77 and derisk at 76k. Kronos try the same but aligning with Monte Carlo simulaations and guess what? it's been missing a lot of directions and turns in the market.https://shiyu-coder.github.io/Kronos-demo/If this indicator is any good, just post how it portrayed the dump in January (I bet it didn't do well).These indicators only work until they don't and work better when the market is sideways.
>>62285071It's like they don't even see the green arrow for tomorrow>>62285103>If this indicator is any good, just post how it portrayed the dump in January (I bet it didn't do well).This one? Looks like if you sold/short red and bought green you made a ton of money
>>62285118Interesting
>>62285172Is this saylors indicator?
>>62285172>feb 8, 2026: model picks out mar 3 as a high-probability buy date>price spikes that dayalso>first week of a war>ha ha on feb 8 you didn't predict that!the thing has a ~80% hit rate over more than a year, on dates given weeks in advance. the twitter account's been posting since october
>>62285204High hit rate doesn't mean good returns.>It still underperforms Buy & Hold KEK
>>62285202what our friend doesn't understand is that the price on that date is the close, so unless you bought at exactly the very last possible second, you made money, especially since the next signal is "derisk" (yellow diamond)>>62285210>It still underperforms Buy & Hold>+963% over Buy & Hold is underperforming Buy & HoldDo you have literal brain damage
Lets see ETH
>>62285271I only have BTC implemented right now, but next week I'm adding ETH, SOL and DOGEthey'll be similar since they essentially trade as beta plays to the orange coin
>>62285034>>62285103>>62285172>>62285210I want to take a moment to thank our special needs investor anon here, what a hero>that's a lagging indicator!>well ok it's actually forecasting a month in advance, but i bet it sucked in january!>ok so it crushed january but what about this one single date!>ok so it predicted a price spike on that date nearly a month in advance but the demo strategy is only beating buy & hold by 963%, that's underperforming buy & hold!>ok i just realized +963% over buy & hold means more than 10x buy & hold but...!
71.8/71.4 will be the institutional floor. This is the bedrock number they're trying to drag it towards before June 1st. 74k would have been the floor had retail not dumped the other weekend. Good job morons.
>>62284969What exactly do you mean by derisk?
explain me how to use this and i'll try it for 1 week and 1 month on hyperliquid (or extended)
>>62285343Move into non-volatile assets, usually USD.
>>62285343>What exactly do you mean by derisk?Whatever your trading style/risk tolerance is - you could reduce size, reduce leverage, move stops up etc. The demo 1x lev BTC strategy just closes 50% on confirmation to keep it simple>>62285356see>>62284969>green = buy dips>red = sell rips>yellow = volatility likely, derisk>the site has a realtime FX-based confirmation layer - positive confirms buys and invalidates sells, negative confirms sells and invalidates buys>today FX is solidly green so early buys are defensible>chart gets updated every month with a new 4-week, next will be on Sunday
>>62285363ok, im reading about it, surely you understand im skeptic, right? 1% sl, 80% volume reduction and 10x leverage i would have made 1Bwhat is trading volatility? derisking by how much?what do you recommend in terms of setting (sl for shorts longs the same?)if you make me money, i'll gladly give you 5-10% of my profits
>>62285389>1% sl, 80% volume reduction and 10x leverage i would have made 1BI just added leverage as an option to the trade simulator and it's clearly not handling leveraged losses right, lol. In fact I just realized it's probably counting a 1% loss at 10x as 1% and not 10x (or a 1% move as 1% loss and not a .1% move). I'll fix that>what is trading volatility? derisking by how much?up to your own style. Like I said, the demo strategy just sells 50% on Volatility confirmation, since the goal of that strategy is just to show how an almost-passive investor can make gains with 4-6 trades a monthOne user scalps ETH liquidation levels using it as a bull/bear bias and says he's printing>if you make me money, i'll gladly give you 5-10% of my profitsno need anon, I'm not charging anyone money until I've got the model tuned into ridiculous accuracy. maybe give the twitter a follow and turn notes on, leave a like or comment on the posts, that'd be a big help
>>62285363Ah I see. But if you sell at red and buy at green you shouldn't be holding any at yellow anyways. So derisk should only really happen if you're shorting.Anyways my experience with short term trading crypto is you get eaten alive by the fees. Not only are the fees exorbitantly higher than for stocks but you get charged per dollar not per coin/share. For example on kraken you have to be doing over a million in monthly volume just to get your fees down to a reasonable rate and even thats assuming you never make market orders.
You guys still use meme indicators? I simply look at the moon
>>62285441>But if you sell at red and buy at green you shouldn't be holding any at yellow anyways. So derisk should only really happen if you're shorting.The Volatility signals are weird inflection points where you can get either early trend reversals, or sudden trend accelerations - combining it with the FX layer is really good at identifying which of those it's likely to be, and confirming/invalidating the signal. For example, >>62285172Here you got a Buy followed by a Volatility with FX counter-trend to price trend (negative) - the implication is exactly what happened, a short-term bullish impulse>>62284814The May 25 Sell was followed by the 26th Volatility with inline FX to price trend (negative) - implies acceleration to the downside, and man did that happen
>>62285468Why look at the moon when you can look at the wave anon
how do i find this? website?
>>62285577Watermark
>>62285426>I just added leverage as an option to the trade simulator and it's clearly not handling leveraged losses right, lol. In fact I just realized it's probably counting a 1% loss at 10x as 1% and not 10x (or a 1% move as 1% loss and not a .1% move). I'll fix thatyeah, most likely. Definitely tune it, it's super useful to understand how tight should the strategy be.explain me something, i'm seeing two future signals (may 29 and may 30), this won't change if i understand correctly, that means the may 30 buy signal will show up in the simulation you have on the website? but the confirmation layer will only be updated in that day, yes? I suppose the confirmation layer is the strategy gauge? Finally when are the trades done? Immediately when a new daily candle starts? Or is there any rule?i'm going to give you a follow for sure
>>62285615>that means the may 30 buy signal will show up in the simulation you have on the website?First one that confirms. If FX continues this positive tomorrow, 2h after US open it'll confirm. Honestly I think buys today are good but that's not what the forecast back on the 3rd said> I suppose the confirmation layer is the strategy gauge?The FX gauges are the confirmation layer, Strategy is an oscillator using several weighted factors (physics predictions, FX on different timeframes, seasonality, etc) that's supposed to give you a simple, accurate bias for the day. It's all WIP but in its defense it was screaming Strong Sell on the 25th and man was that accurate>Finally when are the trades done? They execute immediately on confirmation, right now I'm working on a fully automated bot that just uses Strategy and a basic Bollinger strat for entries/exits>i'm going to give you a follow for surethanks anon! Likes and comments on the posts are maybe the biggest possible help right now
>>62285636is there anything i can read about the schizo psychics this is based on?
>>62285706From the other thread, Econophysics as a concept has been around since Bacherie's "Theorie de la speculation" in 1900, but what I'm doing is based on "Price variations in a stock market with many agents" from 1997 as a foundation, and "Financial brownian particle in the layered order-book fluid and fluctuation-dissipation relations" from 2014, and then applying a pretty simple schizo concept to take the reasoning one step further. The end result is predictive weeks in advance
>>62285733Gonna look into ittks anon
>>62285480The moon creates the tides
>>62285791>wild shrimp need tides to reproduce>moon creates tides>moon makes shrimp sandwiches possibleThanks moon
>>62285103>https://shiyu-coder.github.io/Kronos-demo/this shit looks overfit nigga id backtest it at least
I have a similar model coded up in pine it is quite useless lol
>>62285839lmao this one works a little better, my main problem was underestimating the violence we got on fairly faint signals this last 3 days, which might be partially the nature of the simulation - outputs start to get a little blurry 4-5 weeks out and then just turn into noise, which is why I do the updates every 4 weeksStill, calling every major pivot this month using schizo math is pretty decent
>>62285878shut up bot
>>62285897no u
>>62285919you probably work for the cia retard
>>62285940>CIA>giving away the free money cheat code to internet autistsdoesn't seem very likely anon
>>62285967I mean as long as this doesn't go full premium (as a ploy to ensnare gullible /biz/ tards) it seems like a good resource. Some ppl on this board want to stay poor or just FUD for fun. Pathetic behavior honestly.
>>62286025It's nowhere close to where I'd feel comfortable charging people money for it. Trade bots/API feeds will probably be subscription, when that's done, but those are more for pro tradersThere's also daily updates on the twitter account
>>62285878>outputs start to get a little blurry 4-5 weeks out and then just turn into noise, which is why I do the updates every 4 weeksWhy not update weekly? or even daily?
>>62286347>Why not update weekly? or even daily?Basically, because it's a lot easier - there are a lot of inputs into the model that each have to be harvested and processed by me before they get fed into the sim. It runs into the hours each time. I can also cope that the current date's "conditions" are obviously the starting point of the forecast, so having them flattening out a little bit is easier to alignI do weekly updates on the site and the twitter account, but that's 90% just applying current price momentum and FX momentum to the existing physics-based forecast, which I have to get better at. I'm a nerd, not a trader
>>62284814>buy may 17>sell for a loss on May 25thanks
>>62286532>buy may 17>short may 25you're welcome
>>62286447>because it's a lot easierFair enough. Although I'm sure at least some of that data gathering and processing could be automated.>I'm a nerd, not a traderSo you don't use it all? I get that some people are very risk averse but if you're confident in your technology I don't see why you wouldn't at least dip your toes and make what is essentially free money.I think I might do a bit of paper trading and I'll let you know how it pans out by the end of June.
>>62286639>Fair enough. Although I'm sure at least some of that data gathering and processing could be automated.A lot of it is! I keep getting tempted to outsource some of it to an LLM but some gut instinct says "you'd be really really dumb to do that," even a local one>So you don't use it all? I get that some people are very risk averse but if you're confident in your technology I don't see why you wouldn't at least dip your toes and make what is essentially free money.Oh, I use it, have been trading perps with it for years, getting more profitable as the model evolves. After the addition of the FX layer last spring, I can get away with some truly disgusting leverage. I just meant I don't have a background in trading or technical analysis, so I've been learning all of those skills on the go. It's all related but still a different skillset>I think I might do a bit of paper trading and I'll let you know how it pans out by the end of June.Please do, I'll post in here when there's updates but you can always get in touch via Twitter
>>62284814I’m just gonna wait for the mega dump to flush the longs down to 60k..
>>62284814L, and let me be perfectly clear, FG
>>62289468So up from here? Don’t speak zoomzoom
>>62289671This is where price should turn up - hybrid FX+physics says Buy because FX is so positive, physics officially flips green tomorrow, it all seems pretty good for bulls over the next 24 hours.
>>62287275this. I just go all in bottom of the bear market and do nothing a couple years
>>62284814This is no proper backtesting! You must test at least 30 instances!https://youtu.be/zXoZdnYfIlA?si=MPB49se3bA1H2fnp
>>62291704*32 Instances
>>62291711>>62291704?
>>62291719How big are the wins and how big are the losses? They have to be in a profitable proportion together with the win rate. 66% win rate with wins 1/3 as big as the losses is not profitable for example.
>>62284814broken clock o algo
what time of day do you make the trades
if you have a profitable strategy then just make a hyperliquid vault so we can join it and you have 10% profit share
>>62291779There's a whole website and twitter account where you can check these things>>62292012>a broken clock predicts the future 80% of the timeThat's one hell of a broken clock>>62292012The demo strategy executes ~2 hours into NY open, when there's enough FX data to confirm or inval the signal>>62292563Down the list of things to do. Right now it's a trade bot, which is being built because a mid-tier CEX wants to explore white labelling signals, so the bot needs to be optimized, but then I'll absolutely integrate it into HL
