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File: IMG_1141.jpg (79 KB, 1179x822)
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oil edition

>Latest developments on the illegal and unconstitutional US strikes against Iran
https://iran.liveuamap.com/
https://x.com/sentdefender

>Some helpful links to numb the pain
https://findahelpline.com/
https://www.nvidia.com/refunds/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/refunds
https://jlingz.com/

>European indices
https://live.euronext.com/en
https://www.justetf.com/en/how-to/invest-in-europe.html

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

>Financial TV Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners: so you feel like in the movies
https://finviz.com/
https://etfdb.com/

>Gambling:
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits

>Boomer Investing 101: so zoomers with meme stocks can outperform you
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings

>Misc smg:
https://www.financialjuice.com/home
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

previous smigger thread
>>62754834
>>
is the nword vydia co. sqozzling?
>>
hold my big juicy bags
>>
My SPY $800c 12/2027 are up bigly
>>
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NVAX is up 20% on no news
Insiders are moving
>>
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Is this proof that gypsies (romanians) are pajeets?
>>
Fuck me, my NVAX calls are up 3000%
>>
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Yea I think I broke $300k, what to do for celebration?

I want a model Y bros.
>>
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>>62755518
If its good enough to printscreen its good enough to sell?
>>
>>62755518
Is it because of the Russian plague? kek
>>
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Is this chart good or bad.
>>
>>62755508
>>62755523
>>
SpaceXSI?
>>
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Can't fucking believe it. Is the US really pulling this off? Are they WINNING by Stranglement on the rugheads?
LMAO never BET against the JEWS.
>>
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>>
Hello operator get me David Soxl
>>
Witness these digits, SPY (and inflation) 1000% EOY
>>
>>62755545
Here's the catch: Iran doesn't give a fuck about their own people
They'll gladly make them starve by the millions as long as they can defeat their ideological enemies in the US and religious enemies in Israel
>>
>>62755556
>kike projection
>>
>>62755514

>no news

the news was Russians released the plague or some bullshit. you are super late and don't even know what the fake and gay news was.
>>
>>62755556
That what happened to bangladesh though.
>>
>>62755556
Literal mossad propaganda.
>>
>>62755555
fart
>>
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>>62755556

You sound like an absolute fucking Eastern European descended Yahudi Kike.

Oil is going to $200-300 until the Orange Messiah comes begging the Ayatollah for forgiveness.
>>
>>62755559
>>62755562
>>62755572
if you weren't complete retards you would see that I think that Iran is winning
holy low IQ
>>
File: 1596488599721.jpg (64 KB, 719x688)
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the last 2 months have sucked. of course we're right next to ATH out of nowhere. they kept me sidelined intentionally.
>>
>>62755521
>what to do for celebration?
set a real milestone like $500k or $1m. congrats anyways tho
>>
>>62755559
>>62755561
How much pol do you need to rot your brain with till you think the religious fundamentalist kleptocrat is the good guy?
I really hope you are Iranian shills and not schizos this retarded. You dont have to fall for every false dichotomy.
>>
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>>62755572

>the people that tell you eugenics isn't real and that they are gods chosen people look like this

actually cursed by god devil worshipping inbred tribe on murdering pedophiles is the strongest lobbying group on earth. amazing.
>>
>>62755581
you are spiritually a black person
>>
File: chuddie.mp4 (1.17 MB, 720x862)
1.17 MB
1.17 MB MP4
>>62755578
Who sidelined you?
>>
>>62755545
>The guy in team red is saying that team red is winning
No fucking way bro
>>
>>62755594

trvth. the most niggerish trait is being angry/jealous at others doing well. that you would rather everyone suffer than anyone in your community transcend poverty
>>
Remember pattern day trading?
>>
>>62755521
Iran doesn't give a shit about the tiny amount of oil it exports
they're in a war economy.
>>
>>62755601
?
>>
>>62755521
> i hit an arbitrary number with my gains! Better spend it on Pajeeta / Ling Ling's favorite car
>>
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>>62755600
>>
>>62755594
i'm financially white tho
>>
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>>62755545
Iran has had accelerating inflation for quite some time, because the government has been boosting funding to the military by using the money printer to supplement tax revenue. Recent events have demonstrated that, although unpopular, it was nonetheless a wise decision that saved the country from being turned into a failed state.
>>
>>62755556
>you don't care about us starving your people enough!
>>
>>62755601

>we aren't going to allow goyim to trade too frequently its dangerous and you should just hold shares goy
>50% of volume is 0dte giga leverage options

its a funny world
>>
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>>62755606
>Ling Ling
My nigga
>>
>>62755603
Of course they care. Selling oil brings in foreign currency. This foreign currency can be used to import components that can be used to make arms. Alternatively, foreign currency can be used to import civilian goods which frees up domestic factories and labor to instead produce arms.
>>
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>>62755577
No, you're a complete fucking idiot who can't read the situation. It's beyond your grasp.

Stick to niggerball or Minecraft or whatever the fuck it is creatures at your IQ level occupy themselves with.
>>
>>62755622
You cant have any money. Why are you here?
>>
>>62755609
that's exactly what a spiritually black person would say
>but im rich nigga!
>>
>>62755572
>Oil is going to $200-300.
No it isn't, unless Trump decides to actually carry out "bridge and power plant day". Demand for oil is quite elastic these days because of China's heavy investment into oil substitutes, so a modest loss of oil supply lost won't cause prices to reach $200
>>
>>62755556
well, they were attacked and are defending themselves
what do you suggest, that they should just give up?
>>
Just like that nothing happened to bonds
>>
I'm bullish on crypto
most of the world is either already in a high inflation regime,
to about to enter one. The next decade or two will be a period of financial repression. Including in America and Europe.

We'll reach a point when there's less than a few dozen countries with inflation below 5%

that's bullish for crypto
as a store of value
it's bullish for gold and commodities as well
and commodity producers

like 20% of my portfolio is:
gold, crypto, commodities, and commodity producers, and energy

and, for my equity investments
I'm in predominately in companies with high pricing power. Very little staples and utilities. I don't have a whole lot of consumer discretionary either. For financials, I'm at about SP500 allocation. My only real weakness is growth and industrials. I am overweight industrials, and I have considerable growth. Next to no real estate. I understand real estate is bullsih from inflation but fuck that.
>>
>>62755637
hu?
theyve reached new lows today
>>
>>62755634
Yes
Living in US colonies like Europe, the gulf states, japan and korea is way better than living in Iran lmao
>>
>>62755581
I already broke $500k combined this is just my fidelity account.
>>
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>>62755631
Lolno.
China has no substitutes. They were drawing down their reserves, but they're back in the market and bidding up everything now.

There is no solution but for the Orange Orangutan to drop to his knees and beg the Ayatollah for forgiveness.
>>
>>62755634
It has a pretty good track record?
>>
>>62755643
eth is the transition currency before we enter the love economy
>>
>Iran hit 5 tankers in 1 day
>oil go down
How do they do it?
>>
>>62755647
>>62755651
if you like to live among niggers, then yes, because thats exactly what US culture is
>>
File: 1759520335546903.gif (154 KB, 220x186)
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WHAT WHAT WHAT NO NO NO
>>
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Just a healthy end of day sell off
>>
Why SPCX pumping all of a sudden sars.
>>
>>62755651
>either literally needed to be bombed into ruins to fail, or dissolved by singular acts of their own leaders
Not the hottest argument against it to be fully honest
>>
>>62755655
the more tankers they hit, the less there are to hit

same with rates, the more they hike, the more they could cut (bullish), the more they cut, the less they could cut (bearish)
>>
>>62755657
Would you rather live in the US colonies of Europe, the gulf states, japan and korea or ... Iran (lol)?
>>
>>62755643
How would you allocate 180k. I got a lawsuit with a Curicco casino, expect a bitcoin payout. Not sure what to do next with it. I wouldnt mind having a tiny bit as a hedge.
Just bitcoin, etherium, and Monero?
>>
File: 1790853753001605.png (231 KB, 600x600)
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>tips are climbing to 4%
>>
Feels good to wake up to this. My best day in the market ever. To the one guy that joined me (you said dont overthink it, I Bought ewz, ewzs and 10 adrs kind of overthought it could have just bought EWZ) and maybe a few PBR/PBRA guys(pbra is better) congrats. To the hurr durr Brazil goys and the incel spammer of /smg/ eternal SEETHE
>>
File: Mechapepe.jpg (13 KB, 250x257)
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Nigger market.
>>
>>62755669
I would prefer to live amongst my own people
>>
>>62755655
They can literally print molecules, anon
>>
>>62755655
>>62755668

the market is pricing in there being less mines in the strait. if we send just a few more Indian boats it will be clear in no time
>>
>>62755646
It got a last hour pump.
>>
File: 1729303045972357.gif (84 KB, 385x304)
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WHY IS IT COLLAPSING
ALLL GOING TO ZERO
KEVIN KEVIN
>>
>>62755673
To the victor go the spoils. I debated throwing 100k into a 3x but LULU trippeled the market to his credit so not sure it can repeat the last Bolsonaro surge.
>>
put buyers will inherit the earth
>>
>>62755686
Kek, I feel you miss JPow.
>>
10yr bond is looking good
>>
File: 1780697052539322.gif (260 KB, 300x250)
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IT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS GONNA KEEP GOING UP
>>
Damn /smg/ ya’ll done me dirty like dat, you pulled the seed right outta me ong!
>>
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>>62755668

I fucked an Iranian immigrant chick for a while and she hated Iran. she told me her family made secret booze and that they would probably get killed for it if the government found out. seems like a textbook very low trust brown society where the only people that do well rule by fear and violence like African warlords. I dont know what loser here would say its not a shithole.

anyways we should nuke Israel and wrap this shit up already. I think Iran would come to terms with us if we dropped a nuke right on tel aviv
>>
>>62755691
The GOAT
>>
SpaceX?
Any theories?
>>
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>>62755698
>>
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>Nows?
>>
File: 1777159366016231.png (1.27 MB, 1024x1024)
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My SPCX doin a lil sum
>>
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>AAOI
>>
I'm expecting blue wave to hit SpaceX and AI stocks after midterms, could be great time to buy.
>>
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>>62755655

I guess the Ameri-kikes have figured out a way to pour WTI futures contracts into your fuel tank and run your engine on them.
>>
>>62755663
the last two weeks was good news on top of good news
institutions and hedgefunds got mad and hot and bothered about it and wanted to build up a moat before the next unlock
>>
>>62755709
Ill be watching Anthropic. 1T would interest me.
>>
File: 1684801998697013.png (20 KB, 655x522)
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DING DING DING DING DING

How did it go today?!?!
>>
Pump for no reason, dump for no reason
>>
>>62755556
Then they all starve to death (they won't).
>>
>>62755649
China's stock drawdown was about 640kbpd in August.
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/china-draws-crude-inventories-august-refinery-runs-rise-2026-09-15/

Oil imports were down 25% in August 2026 compared to August 2025, about 3 mb/day (13mt/month) less
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-imports

Substitutes:
* Increasing use of coal, ethane and propane as chemical feedstock instead of naphtha
* Increasing utilization of electric/LNG vehicles and trains at the expense of petrol/diesel vehicles and aircraft
* Using hybrids in electric mode more often
>>
>>62755706
I have no clue why you wouldn't buffmaxx as a billionaire, you have all the free time in the world and access to the best nutrition/drugs and training programs. Elon would be way cooler if he was jacked
>>
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>>62755697
Itsthattimeagain.jpg
>>
>>62755715
-1.28%
That's what I get for being so heavily into RAM. Oh well, at least everything else is doing well.
I still feel like I need to increase my cash position prior to midterms
>>
>>62755663
>Why SPCX pumping all of a sudden sars.

SpaceX launched three rockets in under 13 hours on Friday, including a record-fast crewed mission to the ISS and deployments supporting Starlink and Google's AI satellite initiative. The stock rose 7.4% to $158.96 on heavy volume.
That followed Starship reaching Earth's orbit for the first time and deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites, which matters because Starlink is the biggest business and cheaper launch means more capacity.

There's also a financial catalyst: an Alphabet deal worth $920 million per month over 32 months for AI computing services, which ramps up in October, on top of a separate Anthropic contract.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reiterated Outperform with a $300 target in a note titled "SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper." He argued investors only have a few weeks to buy ahead of some big milestones. The stock was up roughly 6-7% on the news.
>>
>>62755663
Spacex is going to be the next nvidia. The moment starship starts working it's +1000%.
>>
>>62755715
poopoo, mostly another debugging day
>>
>>62755720
getting buff doesn't really require muh best ingredients, it's literally just consistency and calorie surplus lol
every retard can do it
>>
posted this on stocktwats and one dude blocked me and another dude liked my post
dont think it made much impact though
>>
>>62755720

I have no clue why you wouldn't buffmaxx as any male. physical appearance is the only thing that matters in America. there are more millionaires than dudes with visible abs and visible abs will get you further in life than a million dollars will

this is serious financial advice
>>
>>62755715
+4.53%
>>
>>62755715
-0.20%
37.5% MU
>>
>>62755719
Yeah, that's very cute, but demand for crude oil is growing YoY almost every year, both in China and globally, and there are no substitutes with the same energy density on this planet until a working fusion reactor is built.
>>
>>62755671
No. Don't go all in on crypto.10% crypto is reasonable, and if you go anything beyond that you better have unshakeable conviction. Under no circumstances do you go over 20% crypto. 5% crypto is sweet spot imo. Large enough to matter, but not large enough to cripple your portfolio is crypto dumps.

how you allocate it depends on what you want to do with it


for someone very risk averse, a simple portfolio I'd recommend would be
>70% VT, 30% RAAX/RLY,
or replace VT with VOO if you just hate the world outside of America but I don't recommend that. then just tack on 5% in a separate portfolio
>>
>>62755725
It's probably going to drop under 150$ after midterms. Then it's all the way up for like 3 years.
>>
>>62755728
Aren't you just paper trading?
>>
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>>62755715
1.08% (+$33,886.76) Today
Temps AI, and Merdolibra for the 9% win. Also my CROs bounced back. Not sure why bio was on down last week?
>>
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>>62755715
corrected
Today: +1.26%
This Month: +3.18%
This Year: +37.23%
New Peak: +0.44%
12 Months: +15.19%
>>
>>62755663
>Why SPCX pumping all of a sudden sars.
just buy slow and steady, its a young stock, volatile, but Elon is a massive contractor for DOE/intelligence and also savy business dood. Good chance SPCX hits $1,000 end of next year or sooner. Their Falcon 9 is a workhorse delivering shit to space on the regular, massive spacecock Starship had a 'successful flight' and delivered working V3 Starlink sats. SPCX firing on all thrusters captain.
>>
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>>62755715
eatin good but no deal on prime cuts today
>>
>>62755715
+0.36% today, not bad not terrible.
>>
>>62755731
Complete bullshit. Missiles that can hit sats are crazy fucking expensive. Shooting down 50 starlinks would be the annual budget of russian army.
>>
Klarnabros???
>>
100% gain on PBRA this year <cvx down today sorry bro>. All the idiots with polbrain (I SEE YOU INCEL SPAMMER OF smg) hurrdurr monkey soup, at least you have your incel folders to goon to.

Incredible move for a $ hundred billion company, but its still trading at 25% of the valuation of US majors
>>
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>>62755715
+1.22%
>>
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>>62755715
-.6
tomorrow will be better
>>
>>62755729
I wasn't saying it does (I was an amateur /oly/ lifter previously), but e.g hypertrophy is more difficult with age and Musk is in his 50s.
>>
>>62755753
the purpose, admittedly was for fud
doesnt matter if its true
plus the entire eastern brics bloc would participate in the endeavor
>>
>>62755725
Interesting thanks. I do worry about the temporary nature of the AI revenues though.
>>
>>62755722
fuckin' amazing picture, man larry was thin back then
everyone is so old now :c
>>
>>62755715
+0.78
>>
>>62755741
Yes but wanting to go live ASAP, I was hoping today would be the first day but it didn't pan out
>>
>>62755761
What makes you think it is temporary?
From my perspective it's going into orbit with no brakes.
>>
>>62755715
0.3%
>>
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I got major cash (for me) for deployment but the bank wants it there to give me a mortgage. Fucking jews.
>>62755768
Don't hide, just buy.
>>
>>62755545
>allows its people to suffer while pouring resources into terrorism

He talking about America or Iran?
>>
File: 1436704355306.jpg (444 KB, 1200x808)
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>stock price moves more after hours than it did the entire day
>>
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>anon told me to put everything into SPCX
>it poomps 7.5% today
>I didn't buy
>>
>>62755545
I just read front page news about his credibility and track record plummeting lol
>>
>>62755715
0.05%
Because I’m cash gang
>>
>>62755780
When will the KOPSI hit 9000?
>>
>>62755736
A fusion reactor would certainly be a large centralized power plant. Oil is mostly used for small decentralized engines. I don't see how they are comparable.

Oil demand displaced by electric vehicles in China was almost 1 mbpd in 2025 and increasing rapidly, according to the IEA. The 2035 projection is that about 4.6 mbpd will be displaced.

For the whole world the figures are about 1.5 mbpd and 9 mbpd respectively.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-data-explorer

China is building about 4,000 km of railways per year, including about 2,500km of high-speed rail. In addition, coal-to-chemicals capacity is being expanded. So I think China has probably already reached peak oil demand.
>>
>>62755768
dont go fully live just yet
ninjas on here are screaming about bonds and earnings is this month another hike is coming etc
>>
>>62755771
I have to be able to trust and control it when afk and it means there's still some work to do, like setting up ssh from my phone into a web app like pic rel. And that work lead to down time today so it didn't really trade.

Mostly running a short vol strategy, and these tend to work until they don't and you blow up. But I think it manages that part decently enough to survive. Waiting on a bunch of data to finish downloading from Databento and I'll have a better idea how it does during volatile periods like that crash-then-rally from earlier this year.
>>
>>62755785
Im telling man, just hold voo for cash. If it drops 20% you'll still hsve 80% for cheapest. If you are wrong and it goes up uou are ahead.
I get playing conservative, I even get 1/3rd cash but full port cash?
>>
>>62755753
If they did it, they would use some kind of cluster munition, or a radiation weapon (= specially designed nuke), or poison orbital planes with sand or something. They wouldn't use one missile per target, that's not economically doable.
>>
>>62755651
In this comparison, the USA is closer to Imperial Japan than Iran is. They bombed Pearl Harbour because the US cut off all oil exports to the Japs and they thought they could extract a quick defeat from the Americans after a huge tactical victory
>>
>>62755700
Don't hide.
Just buy.
>>
>>62755791
I intend to model expectations vs outcomes around both fed interest and earnings and other macro data so it can survive this or at least back off when it's unable to demonstrate any skill. Not there yet though trying to focus on going live on purely market data first, no exogenous stuff
>>
>>62755792
Look, I don't understand your picture and I don't wanna bother with it. Just buy NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL and MU and don't look at it again until 2030.
>>
>>62755798
The meme is about autocrats >>62755583
>>
>>62755789

most of chinas power grid is fucking coal dude. they are replacing oil with coal and you are talking about it like a giant leap forward lmao
>>
Do not be afraid, come here little fella, itll be okay, you can buy, you dont have finna gotta be scared no mo.
>>
>>62755700
itll start going down absolute earliest wednesday
most likely a hedgefund front run starting thursday like the last time shares unlocked and a guaranteed down day on friday
the news that the company keeps putting out is solid so as long as the war in ukraine does escalate into space, spcx is shaping up to be a solid company even if they dont get earthians on mars or the moon even within the next 50 years
>>
>>62755807
the meme is about people that opoose the US
the US has no problems with autocrats
>>
>>62755812
It's a leap forward for China because China has a lot of coal and not much oil, so it decreases import dependence.
>>
>>62755769
Well they're renting it out to other AI Labs aren't they? Tbh, I don't know maybe the labs are fine with that arrangement, but I would have thought they'd want their own infrastructure.
>>
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>>62755715
decent
>>
>>62755804
Overall, the thing I've been running has been averaging around 2%/day during live sessions, with conservative capital use, so I think it's better than what you suggested.. But obviously won't last forever.
>>
>>62755817
Correct, like Franko, whos on the meme but you haven't read enough history to get it.
>>
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+1.5% today
I feel empty
almost serene
I don't care anymore
>>
>>62755715
3%
>>
>>62755819

the US has already made it abundantly clear that if china fucks around we are just going to blow up the three gorges dam in China and instantly flood millions of people and cripple their powergrid

running their plastic electric cars made out of oil is just so the bureaucrats don't have to breath smog in the cities anon
>>
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>>62755715
-0,35%
One of my big% Euro holds was heemed at the very end on no news, probably just to fuck with weak hands. At least my CDR and GOOG and KLAR (???) are propping me up today.
>>
>>62755823
Well when did you start? Do you mean to say you have an 80% return in one month?
>>
>>62755782
Remember the idiot of a few days ago (the incel spammer of pmg) guaranteed that spacex would fall because of the unlock?
>>
>>62755715
>+1.08%
>>
>>62755503
>Over Factory
It's unironically over
>>
>>62755826
then what is the meme even about?
youre just throwing shit against the wall
>>
>>62755829
What "fucking around" is it that you expect from China and why is it relevant to the discussion of oil demand? China probably wants to decrease oil dependence even if for no other reason to avoid suffering the negative consequences of the US fucking around in the Middle East and other parts of the world.

I'm not aware that the US government has communicated any threat to China regarding the Three Gorges Dam, and in any case, it's probably relevant to note that China has an estimated 620 nuclear warheads, of which about 500 are on missiles with the range to reach CONUS.
>>
pay up zoomies, that 2nd home mortgage doesn't take care of itself
>>
>>62755845
I’m 40 and when I was a kid the boomers were all like
>hehehe social security isn’t gonna exist by the time you can claim it pal
>>
>>62755845
Fuck boomers. Except my nan, she's lovely.
>>
>>62755844
Not sure what that anon was on about but china makes up a large amount of the demand for oil, if they decide to tap their reserves instead, which nobody knows how large their reserves actually are, global demand goes way down and so do oil prices, which was exactly what brought oil down earlier this year
>>
>>62755845
just use the part of my taxes that goes to the kikes
>>
Explain to me how Nasdaq hits a new ATH everyday while gas and yields soar and on the brink of WW3
>>
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>>62755845
I'm curious when the first politicians will run on a platform of specific austerity for boomers. People always called it the "third rail" of politics to cut their benefits, but at a certain point they aren't going to have the political power to stop it.
>>
>>62755845
Based boomers. Agree.
>>
>>62755556
How do you defeat the US as Iran? Hide while they blow up your shit until they get bored and leave? Emerge from the rubble and claim you have defeated the great satan?
>>
>>62755844

>fucking around

currently they mass import fentanyl to the US to try to destabilize the country. its one of the biggest sticking points in every negotiation.

>they don't talk about three gorges

its been openly discussed for years. china already said they would view it as nuclear aggression retaliation act. the US is actively building fucking space lasers and military bases in Greenland to intercept ICBMs dude. you can larp its all fanfiction but its actually discussed and being acted upon... a lot of your civilian companies like SPCX and CAT are going to succeed because they are a branch of the military and you niggers don't even understand what you are buying most of the time
>>
>>62755845
Gerontocracy. Already happening in places with worse birthrates. Britain is an old and brown people reserve.
>>
>>62755866
they basically destroyed all US bases close to Iran
and they brought fuel and diesel prices to record levels
theyre trying to make the war as costly as possible
>>
>>62755836
Over 80% yes, and I'm aware of what that implies. That was over approx one month of OPRA data, with training done on several years of SPY SIP/BBO data. I'm waiting on more OPRA data to see how it does during more times when realized volatility exceeds implied.
>>
>>62755866
Defeating and destroying are different things
You can destroy your enemy and still fail to accomplish your strategic objectives, ie: your win condition
>>
>>62755862
Ever heard about peak euphoria before a depression? This is it.
It happens because at this point, the only people left trading are euphoric retards bumping prices up with each other. Much like two Pokemon card traders artificially bumping up the price of their stupid cardboard shit that is worth nothing.
>>
>>62755845
>>62755854

its a ponzi based on having increasing numbers of children and no one has children anymore. boomers never understood that part but they definitely all were taught to repeat that it would go insolvent within their lives
>>
>>62755866
Depend on whether or not Iran still want to coexist with its neighbors. Iran can very easily destroys all oil infrastructure in the ME. That would push oil to $300 per barrel and plunge the entire world into a depression. The economic reality will force the US into a concession. If they want to escalate further, they can nuke the desalination plants. Literally millions dead in a month, at least.

The downside is obvious. They will make everyone into their enemies, even China. Qatar has been very friendly toward Iran and is a hub for them to launder money and trade with the world. Even the Houthi will die if they do that.
>>
>>62755845
Get to waging alphoids!
>>
>>62755866
The same way Vietnam did. And Iran is succeeding at it, at a fraction of the cost, both in money and in lives.
>>
>>62755877
Well that's really good, hope it works out. Me, I'm a brainlet so I'll just follow a buy and forget strategy going forward.
>>
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>>62755503
Deflating M2 (>>62755805) out of diesel fuel shows a potential future of $15/gal diesel, if the fuel supply squeeze gets priced like diesel was back in 2008 in M2-adjusted terms.

Ready your anguses!

Maybe buy some [calls in] VLO to hedge your edge.
>>
>>62755885
>millions will die
is that good or bad for XOM tho?
>>
>>62755866
Wars have strategic goals. If you as an aggressor do not accomplish your goals then you have, by definition, lost the war. A defendant literally only has to stop the aggressor from accomplishing those goals.
>>
>>62755881

>peak euphoria

I think they could easily do like a +15% blowoff top from here just to buck break every bear and get the most stubborn person to fomo the top before the great niggering 1 day after elections or some shit
>>
>beet id
aww sheeeit
>>
>>62755761
The temporary nature is to SPCX's benefit. They can cut their customers off with short notice if they need that capacity for their own initiatives.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. SPCX's future is tied to Tesla's Optimus and digital Optimus succeeding. Selling that compute to others is merely the backup plan/stop gap.
>>
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POL FAGS KILL YOURSELF THEN GET THE FUCK OUT
>>
>>62755894
Kinda bad. The US will impose an export ban and print money at the same time. Long story short, oil and diesel prices in the US will be suppressed but will rocket in the rest of the world. XOM and CVX will just have to eat it up because they are American.
>>
>>62755890
Yeah, it tends to pay until you get hit with volatility, and then you lose everything you made and more, though. It's basically like getting paid to sit on a bomb and hoping it won't explode. If I can sit on it long enough without exploding I'll get off and diversify into something safer.
>>
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>>62755903
No.
>>
>>62755881
dont forget democrats and socialists sweeping the midterms, which noone has even priced in yet
the market is oblivious to the real world
>>
>>62755903
I dont see your id in the responses to the Dingdingding anon
>>
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>>62755895
>obtained 0 resources or land
>leadership is still dead/broken, still won't try and unite because tribe A thinks is muhammad is a bitchin name while tribe B thinks mohammed sounds cooler than muhammad
>other countries don't have any faith in a Iran controlled strait to the point even their own allies are just keeping quiet and looking for other places to send their shit
>lose your only competitive advantage (cheap oil) because u wanted some gibs me dat and to larp as saudi arabia
>US still exists and will keep giving free bombs to Israel so the bombing problem isn't even solved
That should shut the thirdies up.
Anyway, what stocks should I buy tomorrow?
>>
>>62755887
thats a good comparison
>>
>>62755903
if we kill ourself aren't we already fucking off?
>>
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The war is caused by Big Oil btw. They are funding both sides
>>
>>62755914

tribe A killed brown jesus' entire family tree and tribe B wants to genocide all of tribe A
>>
>>62755913
I'm >>62755409 (there are countries outside of the US fyi).

>>62755916
That's the joke. Like a "I'm gonna kill you and then bury you alive kinda thing".

Anyway buy stocks never sell.
>>
>>62755914
Regime is still in control and nothing has been done about the nooks. US might get that done in the end but so far, that's two objectives not completed so far.
Though I understand you want to pretend they never were objectives to begin with.
>>
>>62755919
yes, some anon here admitted yesterday, that US shale oil would be unprofitable with the Iran war
>>
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>>62755919
TTE shareholder here, I absolutely love Patrick. God tier CEO.
>>
>>62755926
*without the Iran war
>>
>>62755728
>Says he's short vol
>Loses money on a green day
I think you're doing it wrong anon
>>
>>62755926
Without you mean?
You're right if it goes under ~70, correct, shake becomes less profitable
>>
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>>62755921
>Anyway buy stocks never sell.
Only works as long as M2 keeps marching up and leverage is ≤ 1.

M2 is the driving force of that strategy, see chartsrel.
>>
>>62755934
yes, exactly
>>
>>62755933
I don't think you know what short vol means
>>
>>62755945

they wont ever stop printing but they will have to keep coming up with more and more creative excuses to nigger print infinity trillion dollars.

they doubled the money supply for a fake and gay coof they released and that shit didn't even last 5 years before they are fiending like crackheads trying to get more.
>>
>>62755949
Damn are you triggered? VIX is down anon and you didn't make money
>>
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>>62755715
+1.7%
>>
>>62755959
VIX is the premium of SPX options, not a measure of volatility or RV vs IV. VIX being higher would mean IV is richer..

And it doesn't matter that it didn't make money today, it was only active for the last hour or so, and all things considered it did well not losing more in that sudden cliff.
>>
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>>62755890
>strategy mention
Bullish
>>62755715
Like 4% or something thanks
>>
>>62755968
>VIX being higher would mean IV is richer
How does implied volatility being higher not mean volatility is up

>Not a measure of IV vs RV
That's not short volatility though that's short the spread on IV vs RV then
>>
Ya’ll honkies buyin dem stonks ova here?
>>
>>62755983
>How does implied volatility being higher not mean volatility is up
Because IV != RV. IV is just the expectation of future volatility.

>That's not short volatility though that's short the spread on IV vs RV then
That's what short volatility is; betting RV < IV.
>>
>>62755999
>That's what short volatility is, betting RV < IV
Then what do you call betting that RV will fall



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