Gee, it's almost like AI is a bubble that will obliterate the American economy when it pops.
half a trillion would've bought America their own semiconductor industry, instead we get this bullshit
the west is gonna get its Two Lost Decades from this
>>106480727On top of that, the sars are dumping US treasuries coz Trump bullied them.
>>106480722>obliterate the American economy when it pops.why else would they all have bunkers?where are we meeting up to establish a NA continental headquarters for /tv/ when this happens by the way
>>106480765We discussed this at the meetup in San Francisco.
Great, I just prooomped for the first time this week lmao.
>>106480727>half a trillion would've bought America their own semiconductor industryNo, it would cost a lot more to replicate ASML's and TSMC's tech.
>>106480826USA controls ASML through force. they could buy ASML gear whenever they wanted. sort of similar for TSMC too as USA control taiwanese people.
>>106480826Throw Zeiss in there. No Zeiss = no EUV
two more weeks
>>106480826TSMC complete global assets are 214 billion ASML's are 289 billionWhich is 503 billion. So half a trillion does buy you your own semiconductor industry.It's an absolutely insane amount of money.
>>106480826ASML is just an oven, an oven built on old US R&D they bought out years ago.The real secret is how you use that oven to bake the cake, which the taiwanese are very secretive about and is why intel and smic are mostly sitting on their asses despite acquiring their own EUV machines to play around with years ago.Yes i just tricked you into reading a food anology.
>>106481165*stuck sitting on their asses
>>106480722>obliterate the American economy*global economy
>>106480727you would get the same grifters there fact is if you don't punish grifters you will keep getting scammed by big dreamers.
>>106481093i dont think taiwan would allow its main reason for continued existence to be bought with american funny money
>>106481165Scanners move the wafer and mask synchronously, with a couple nm of reproducibility. That's the Dutch tech.The US light source was a clusterfuck which took decades and 100s of billions to get them to somewhat work and still pollute the entire machine to a riduculous degree, compared to the quality of engineering needed for the actual scanner it's kindergarten stuff ... poorly done.
it plateuad in usefullness for the average joe, in fact it is being enshittifiedthe big boys will work on cost optimization which can enable more stuff, but that is about it until new paradigms
>>106480722>good coders are REQUIRED to fix AI slops messes>AI slop vibe coders lose their entire ability to work if a model has an outage or they have to do something the model isn't capable of>somehow people think coders are going to be obsoleteThe fad is dying, even stupid people can see the current version of AI being pushed for thousands a month is more of a hindrance to any company that isn't just scamming people
>>106481530I can't tell if you're joking or not Taiwan is economically, politically and militarily in the USA's pocketthey will do as they are told
>>106480776
>>106481432The investors don't care anymore. They give money to the people already in their asset bubbles to continue the scam. VC's are known to pick the CEO that looks most like their grandson. How do you think SBF got any money?
>>106482053>How do you think SBF got any money?by having upper-middle class Jewish parents with lots of connections in academia, politics and financeit's nothing to do with him looking like a cabbage
>>106482128This. Investors are more likely to decide which company to invest in based on their follower count from social media than any kind of business plan.
yeah i know this might sound crazy butbut simply copypasting boilerplate might be better than dedicating entire nuclear power plants worth of electricity production into running boilerplate generating LLMs
>>106482023if they were to give those assets to the US, then china would roll in and take over. the main reason china has not thus far is because 1) they need those chip factories themselves as well, so they can't blow them up and 2) they're afraid of US intervention. US would have no reason to intervene if they didn't have those factories. but also if they announced that they were giving all the factories, know-how and etc. to the US, that might in fact be catalyst that causes china to roll in and drop bombs on said factories the US couldn't have them.taiwan giving the factories either the US or china exclusive access to those factories would inevitably lead to armed intervention either way, so literally the only way for them to live is to have both countries be dependent on them. if both US and china ever get their own chips factories up to speed by themselves then again china will probably take over because the US won't bother intervene unless the admin at that time feels like it
>>106482894This whole era of LLMs could go down as the stupidest fad in American history.
>>106480727but that would create jobs here and make the US less dependent, you know we can't have that
>>106482919Stupidest fad in *American* history. But at least it's not the stupidest fad in history.
>>106480722Two more weeks and ai will disappear.Luddites are so fucking gay. Luckily they will be replaced by AIGODS (codetroons, artroons...)
It feels like AI is getting worse
>>106482934but Israel!
>>106480928And? Oh wow cleetus from a red state is going to make sum doritos with them new fancy ayesymel masheen, a-hyuk
>>106480722>>106480727Don't have the sources on hand, but economists that predicted the 2008 crash and people in the government are panicking right now because America was already bankrupt before the AI hype. All this bubble did was buy us some time.>>106481382Have Europoors not come up with a contingency for when we fuck up? >>106484980This.
>>106482919Cope. Ai is the best invention in recent times. You are a brown luddite.
>>106484980I am so angry that the chart says the dates span a little more than two years but the vertical lines split it into four years. Wtf
>>106480722I don't think it will be a bubble that suddenly pops, but things will end up working out in ways these CEOs never predicted. Some random person will publish a paper that shows how to do everything more efficiently with better performance and the investment will glom onto them.
>>106480727You can have a semiconductor industry made out of pure gold, if you have basketball americans working on it then it will go to shit anyways.
>>106486514In that this has already happened. Look up "Hierarchical Reasoning Models". This paper is leaving Amodei and Altman looking stupid. Just 27 million parameters and it outperforms (in some cases sometimes infinitely) giant llms
>>106486514>>106486529Does the Deepseek incident also count? Like if AI could replace humans, newer AIs would also replace older AIs?Though that's just my simplistic view on things.
>>106486529Small tool-specific NNS interfacing with eachother for a precise use-case were always going to win over "generalized" models.
AI is a buzzword that went too far
>>106486250LLMS aren't AI. It's just data scraping with a layer of accessibility and conversational UI on top. Impressive, certainly a cool development in tech, but the idea that it's worth trillion is batshit insane. It's just a slightly more powerful search engine mixed with macros / basic automation. I don't understand what kind of moron uses Claude and thinks they are talking to something 'intelligent'.
>>106486597this. the bubble will pop and it will basically reveal the recession we're already in
>we will reach a post-work society in our life timeal, hamdulillah
>>106486597how much is google worth?>Market cap: C$3.854 Trillionwhat does google do, does google provide any meaningful value, or is every single service they provide, just cataloging, routing and handling data provided by others? theyre trying to be the next google. too bad google will be the next google and they will waste money.
>>106486597You're a brown luddite. You're coping because you're a codetroon who will be replaced keeeek
The AI bubble isn't popping. The Human bubble is popping, and low skill workers aren't ready for the consequences.
>>106486597>I don't understand what kind of moron uses Claude and thinks they are talking to something 'intelligent'.I watched the movie "Her" while binging AI movies when the AI buzz was really heating up in the last few years.Joaquin Phoenix plays the most over the top pathetic excuse for a man you could ever imagine who falls in love with his AI. The movie is stupid, the premise is stupid, the ending is stupid, and the main character is so unrelatable that I couldn't even suspend my disbelief that any human would be this pathetic to believe a computer loves them.And yet here we are. The movie is 95% on rotten tomatoes and receives "universal acclaim."yes, we will never understand these morons.
>>106481432>big dreamers.You mean deranged people who have nepo connections to the entire press, wallstreet, and government.
>>106486899Going down the nepotism rabbithole was fun last time Ive done it. Reminded me that nothing is actually organic and we live in an actual aristocratic society since those who own the Federal Reserve control our country. Aka jews.
>>106486899>datedshe was the "polycule" fuckmeat
>>106486873Well those low-skill (aka middle class workers) were supposed to be your exit liquidity that actually makes that fancy stock you own worth something at the end of the day.>>106486930Well if it’s any consolation it’s rapidly approaching the point where the only thing they have left are their green pesos.
>>106486514The market is so captured at this point that I don't see a traditional bubble pop happening, so I'm inclined to agree. The median American is just going to keep getting poorer while the market continuously skyrockets on funny money. The impossibly large llms are a waste of resources and I can see them drying up to make way for smaller, specialized models as well.
>>106486946>>106486899Sam Bankman-Fried started a crypto exchange called FTX. He was crypto's poster boy because he gave a shitload of money to various causes and seemed to genuinely be a genius. However, he was taking tons of money from the crypto exchange and putting it into a company called Alameda Research which was heavily and stupidly invested in many many worthless shitcoins. In addition, FTX leveraged itself with its own token, basically saying it had much more money than it actually did. When crypto cratered after the previous crash (LUNA fronted by Do Kwon, another hilarious fraudster), FTX collapsed and took over 100 billion dollars of wealth with it. Binance, the biggest exchange, also said it was going to step in and buy FTX but they pulled out at the last second just to fuck FTX. The weasel girl was some math major who knew nothing about finance but was in charge at Alameda. Oh and apparently everyone was literally fucking each other at Alameda. Just wait for the Netflix.
>>106481898>it plateuad in usefullness for the average joe, in fact it is being enshittifiedtodays high end consumer cpu can run it. so theres no reason for people to tolerate enshittification, but theyll beg companies for enshittification like they did with game consoles, smartphones, and streaming replacing pirating
>>106486959The bubble pops on the FED’s timeline.Dotcom popped on alan greenspan’s timeline.Simple as. Anything else is cope and deflection.Problem is there is no point this time.Dotcom was about consolidation of the net into google and co.AI is… already consolidated? Except for i guess a bit of chinese trolling.So the bubble is reduntant and they literally don’t know what to do with it KEK.The entropy of nepotism in action.
>>106480722Considering how fake and gay the """economy""" already was, yes it's going to be catastrophic. I guess. Also the bond market is going to shit its pants in a few months because of tariff-related effects.
>>106480826The research for their product came from a US National Lab where they made the first EUV machines.
>>106480722>ai doesn't exist>tech jobmarket is fucked beyond repair>ai starts being a thing>tech jobmarket gets slightly better>ai becomes the next big thing>tech jobmarket becomes unbearable >ai collapses>tech jobmarket collapseswhat a timeline
>>106487297Ai exists though.
>>106487317cope faggot
>>106487328You are coping retarded nigger luddite tranny. Aigods won, meatbags lost.
>>106481622Whatever, I’m sure ASML has put in a lot of hard work making EUV more viable.My point is the oven is near pointless when all the chefs are highly secretive TSMC people.Intel could order 100 ASML machines and it makes little difference because they don’t have any of TSMC’s secret recipes.
>>106480727i used it recently to write a regex, that was probably worth fifty bucks
>>106480722I doubt itEvery time the US economy has been "obliterated" it recovers more quickly than e.g. Europe etcsome kind of benefit of having a fragile economy based on fleeting bullshit trends
>>106480727The government didn't just randomly spend half a trillion dollars on AI.The markets sometimes go through massive speculative investing. Tulips, South Sea, Japanese post war growth, US real estate and dot com..The AI bubble will eventually burst, either slowly or rapidly, and the globe will feel the consequences. Asia will feel it the most as it's their production we've been using to fuel this shit.
>>106487807It wont happen. Ai is here to stay and replace meatbags.
>>106487821Except for the fact that it's damaging every industry it touches and 42% of large S&P companies are abandoning it.
>>106487839Cope. AI will bring us a better future, post-scarcity.Besides, you sound like a Luddite who doesn't want to accept change.
>>106480722>try to code with ai help>it has no fucking idea what i'm doing until last minute where it will offer an indentation or closing bracketdidn't we have this already
>>106486899>>106486946Someone post that "pin the weasel" pasta
>>106487850>post-scarcityOh, your'e a commie. I didn't mean to have a conversation with someone mentally challenged.I hope you have a good night, little guy.
>>106487864>muh commieCope more ludditeYou sound jewish and homosexual, probably a coper coder.
>>106480928In all seriousness, the US 'controls' ASML through licensing. The laser technology used in EUV came out of US government research labs. Why the heck would the US give/license that to an economic competitor that will use it to undermine the US economy.
>>106486546Researchers are constantly figuring out how to do things better. But there's a delay before that goes to market. There's at least a 3 year delay. A big problem though is once you train up one of these LLMs, you're more or less stuck with it. If it turns out to be a big brick of shit compared to the latest approaches, tough luck. Meta did this with one of its Llamas models codenamed "Behemoth." Giant waste of money and more or less salvageable. When you commit to training an LLM there's no turning back. IMO this is bad software. Software should be able to be salvaged.(Side note: Maybe you can do some knowledge transfer with a trained up LLM, but it's more or less a brick once a better method is announced.)
>>106487964>more or less salvageable*unsalvageable
All the data farms are also fucking everyone over because the local governments are PAYING money to have them built while providing no jobs and having all the locals subsidize the energy costs while also taking all your water. All so some dumbass can ask grok if a meme is real.
>>106482913>so literally the only way for them to live is to have both countries be dependent on them.Taiwan considers TSMC their 'silicon shield'. Its also a good thing as a small power to play two great powers off on one another.>>106482894>>106482919I have a friend in a startup that is now heavily using LLM coding. He used to hire a bunch of contractors (some in eastern europe), but is now leaning mostly on the AI. He has about 20 years of experience. He told me that sometimes the AI does things that are wrong (it apparently likes to delete comments for no reason), and it sometimes tries to create software architectures that my friend says, "he knows will cause problems down the line", so he has to force it to do what he wants. But overall the assessment is that although this isn't perfect by any means, it is a technology indistinguishable from magic as a user and has been absolutely transformational for him and how he works.He mentioned the early stuff couldn't even match up divs in html.Its no wonder new CS graduates are having a hard time finding jobs.
>>106486893The foul mouthed video game character was cool and Amy Adams is fucking hot.
>>106482023>they will do as they are toldI think you underestimate how prepared they are for invasion and dealing with it alone, it would be insanely bloody on both sides if China tried. Estimates are for over a million landing force, 3x the size of d-day in an era of cheap ubiquitous satellites. You talk big but China owning TSMC would absolutely rape the western world and entirely upend the global order.The only thing Taiwanese are relying on from fickle Americans is that they'll nuke TSMC factories before letting China have them. t.Anglo in Taipei
>>106488149>entirely upend the global order.That also speaks toward China not invading. China needs healthy economies to export into. If China ham-fistedly borks the global supply of high-end chip manufacturing, that isn't going to be healthy for the global economy and it won't make friends with the countries it needs to export to.
Finance bubbles are the main export of the US and the only way they have to recover their bonds/debt from foreign hands. Bullshit country, bullshit economy, bullshit culture.
Nigger if all it costed was a few months of defense spending the US would have abandoned TSMC years ago. As would have China and India.You dumb fucks simply don't get that at that level of advanced fabs and incremental improvement it's not something you can buy off a shelf, because every country/region would have by now. It's a culture, one that for some reason the US, China and EU have been unable to replicate for decades now.Building advanced chips is the most advanced manufacturing process on Earth by far, if someone can drop node size while you spend that much on now shitty wafers it's over. No amount of government gibs or le orange man tarrifs will change that
>>106488211China depends so heavily on them too, it's the biggest export market for chips, the silicon shield is a fucking masterstroke of national defense strategy, it's stronger than any nuclear weapon. Taiwanese have known how precarious their existence is since the vend of WW2, getting ahead of the curve in advanced manufacturing is the culmination of that after 80 years.It's a lose/lose situation for any side that tries mess with the status quo at this point. No one wins, the pawn sits in the same place on the chess board. Xi would be insane to gamble his legacy on it.
>>106487850>C-C-Cope!It's you who's coping and repeating the same answers for 4 years just as your daddy Altman is showing the same exact tech with different names to investors.The AI hype is dead, the costs of development already broke unsustainability level years ago. It will "stay here" as niche tool for niche applications. Even your beloved tech oligarch are leaving this ship and start yapping about bioengineering and aging reversal and other insane, new memes to sell investors and you'll swallow it for the fourth time and still be clueless.
>>106487558The US’s biggest strength is it’s too schizophrenic to settle for a specific strategy.>Euros (mainly was frenchies calling the shots, unfortunately) decide to settle for trade barrier maxxing through regs and taxes>It eventually calcifies into a poison that’s killing their own economic potential.>Asians decide to mercantilism and subsidy maxx>unfortunately they are noobs to the industrialization game and don’t know about this obscure game mechanic called tariffs that ruins the meta.>Meanwhile the US has just been making autistic screeching noises but is somehow still kicking.In the words of churchill: Americans will always do what’s right, after they’ve tried everything else.
>>106488515Why are you so homosexual?Ai is replacing codetroons and artroons right now, each day less and less coders are required. I want a world without retarded luddites like you and each second we get closer and closer.
>>106488452China currently is playing into their sloppy foursome with Russia, Iran and NK. Assuming that Trump will still be going full retard, Von Meyer still being useless wom*n and rest of the world just being irrelevant, there are no forces to stop them, too.
>>106488528Nigger, you talk out of your ass."My-my-my art troons killer machine!" - that's not an usecase worth half a trillion. And we see with every fucking day how replacing programmers with AI works - every other week or so another company dies because their product shits itself and they have no people to repair it. It's the fucking reality, but I guess for a faggot with lips closed on Altman's tiny cock it's too much. It's you who act like luddite that got high on that praising the mechanical god and cannot cope with the fact that the magical black box will not gonna change the world.
>>106488549>post deranged gay fantasiesyou are a transgender individual.Your opinion is stupid and jewish, plus you are assuming that ai won't improve, however, we have seen that it's the opposite. For example the new Google ai image generator is almost undetectable, impossible to distinguish between a "real artroon art" and aigod generated.Ai is improving even if you cope and seethe. You will die.
>>106488566I'm working male, more than you. And fact that you have no arguments but your fantasies about trannies is proving me right./thread
>>106488549As long as you understand what it is, and thereby its limitations, its ok. How many times do/did we see boilerplate mentioned on /g/. That's what's going to going away. Its like any other tool that amplifies human capability.Musing right now, think about all the languages and frameworks that get created to manage the boilerplate itself. Maybe with AI tooling that is seen to be unnecessary.Is this a bubble? Of course it is! So what? Just because the .com bubble popped doesn't mean the internet disappeared or that technical progress stopped. Modern hardware is immensely more powerful than in 2000 - and really that progress lead to this bubble being possible.
>thread descends into memewordbotpostingHow predictable
>>106487332AI is the ultimate tranny technology. Trannies are inseparable from technology. Why do you think so many troons write their own operating systems in Rust and shit like God told them to do it.luddites are based
>>106486208>Have Europoors not come up with contingency plansThey have but never implemented them because every time EU tries to get little bit away from US, US then smacks them back into submission. Recently EU was talking about spending trillions building local military manufacturing, but then Trump got a deal where he forced EU to only buy US military equipment and also pay 4% worth of EU GDP for US LNG. Not a single European I know likes it, because instead of making our own equipment we will have to buy extremely overpriced junk from US that is 90% manufactured in China anyway, and then also risk US not following article 5. You can’t make contingency plan for US fucking up when they keep behaving like this and trying to put everyone else down. The only reason why China has yet not completely beaten US in AI is because US put the chip ban on China which only bought them less then a decade time before China invents their own NVIDIA chips.
>>106489041>spamming everyones filterwords to slide the threadDid they let you outside the Great firewall for a few moments?
