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New Zeihan video just dropped. Firstly, the report that Reuters put is out is straight up CCP propaganda, it's highly highly likely to be fake, just another chinese psyop. 2ndly, even if it was true, it doesn't actually mean anything. It was directly reversed engineered and cobbled together via old ASML EUV parts, China didn't actually make anything themselves, they just glued a bunch of old ASML EUV parts together into a barely functional machine. They are still decades away from mass production of true EUV.

Let's look at the timeline as per Zeihan. As the report states, it will be 2030 before they can produce a single chip from it. A super shitty chip with lots of defects and horrible yields as the EUV machine is a 2ndhand piece of shit. It will take another decade after 2030 to improve the machine until it has the performance of ASML's current EUV machines. And every fabs needs like dozens of EUV machines, with hundreds of fabs needed to produce enough semiconductors for China's needs . Even with a viable EUV machine, China will need to build up the supply chain to mass produce the EUV to the tune of dozens a month to catch up to TSMC's output, which will take another 10-15 years.

So add everything together and we're looking at another 25-30 years before China can mass produce 2nm chips. And of course, in the 2050s, ASML will be on next next gen lithography and TSMC will be on picometer nodes. China will always be decades behind.

This is why Zeihan states that 7nm is also actually a chinese L. Huawei produced 7nm in 2023 and they are still stuck on it. And they will be stuck on it for the next 25 years. 7nm is the last major node that China will ever produce. After all, there's the fact that China will 100% collapse by 2030 anyway, maybe even before their "EUV machine" can ever fab it's first wafer.