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>>107703840
yeah it's a bubble.

still undervalued thougheverbeit

>>107703840
These are nominal values btw, everyone caught up in this circlejerk except OpenAI is down yoy

>>107703893
>These are nominal values
What does that mean?

btw did any cash change hands yet or is it still a spaghetti pile of obligations and future contracts?

This retardation will end with the amerigolem dollar, the largest scam in human history.

>>107703840
Meanwhile, I continue to obtain local models for free at the expense of large companies.

>>107703933
you divide nominal by inflation, because inflation makes most of not-moneys grow in monetary value

>>107703840
I'd love to see their actual gross profit too.
Nvidia is probably the one company that will come unscathed out of all of this since they have actual profitable, productive output, save the drop in valuation, of course.

>>107703999
they'll just short when they hear the train rolling in, don't worry

>>107703840
>umh, Open AI isn't discrepancy isn't that bi-
>4.3 billion/500 billion
it's just not a bubble, it just isn't, it isn't, it isn't, it simply isn't a bubble.

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I watched the big short so I know this will crash

>>107703999
Nvidia will survive but they have to come crawling back to the gamers begging them to buy their cards again (which they will because gamers are cucks)

Does it matter? If everyone knows that there are no fundamentals but the company can still liquidate moon stocks to pay its employees and shareholders see line go up, does it really matter? Why does the bubble have to pop?

>>107704042
Nobody will be able to affort a PC by the time the crash happens

>>107704065
>affort

>>107704061
it matters cause that fake money will ultimately come from tax payers, since these companies created no actual, tangible value but the dividends will still need to be paid, cause you know, line must go up.
>>107704071
he's done for, you completely humiliated him, he ain't recovering from this one.

>>107704086
i hope not, i think that spelling is better actually

>>107704042
No crawling required. People will just continue buying their stuff, I think.

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>>107704071
Give me a break

>>107704086
But can’t the dividends simply be paid by further investment into the stocks, or is this illegal? For instance, if Doug buys 10k Nvidia stock, can’t Nvidia just use this investment to pay someone liquidating 10k worth of stock? It’s essentially what madoff did but Nvidia isn’t lying about their earnings or their investments—everyone knows the fundamentals are fucked. So if everyone knows, and everyone continues to buy in, does the bubble simply pop when the buy-in no longer supports the cash-out?

>>107703893
>>107703956
It's absolutely excruciating watching all these companies claim the layoffs are because le ebin chat bots are replacing workers, and watching retards believe it when the real reason is obviously that the economy is shit and they're not growing.

>>107703840
their mistake was investing in AI for normies

not a single normie WANTS to pay for ai. They use it because it's free

Now you either change your target to non-normies that have a legitimate use for AI (Anthropic, xAI) or you invest in emotionally trapping your costumers so they can keep paying to roleplay a normal relationship with your model (OpenAI)

>>107703840
I'm not an AI fag but these graphs are in incredible bad faith, OpenAI investment 35X but their revenue went 153X and how the hell is 6X in revenue modestly for nvidia? Microsoft is the only true shiteater in this image

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The popp will be glorious and this time everyone saw it coming

>>107704185
American companies actually pay hardly any dividends, it's not in their culture.
Like you said they can use that money to reinvest or simply buy back stock.

Most people investing in ETF's also want the ETF to just buy more stock instead of paying out dividend.
For many ETF's there is a version that pays out dividend (called distributing) and one that doesn't (called accumulating), and the latter are more popular.

For an investor dividends are actually a bit annoying because:
- If you're just going to re-invest it's more work for same result.
- It's not always in your local currency in which case you have to pay a conversion fee.
- Depending on local laws you might have to pay (more) taxes.

>>107704065
The market will get flooded with RAM and 2nd hand RTX PRO 6000's.
If you have any saving you'll be able to buy an incredible gaming rig for next to nothing.

2nd hand RTX PRO 6000's will actually be the biggest threat to Nvidia: can't shill your latest 8GB gaming card when everybody can just buy an "AI" card for $50 which yes can play games too (der8auer already tested that)
Nvidia will probably panic and disable those cards in their driver updates though.

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PACK IT UP JUST CANCEL IT NOW IF A COMPANY ISN'T BREAKING PROFIT RECORDS IN ITS 3RD YEAR IT'S TIME IT MEANS IT WILL NEVER MAKE ANY MONEY
this is how you know /g/ is full of retarded children and NEETs that know nothing about businesses and especially nothing about bubbles

>/biz/

>>107704381
Yes, this is why I didn’t understand how dividend payments would facilitate the bubble pop—they seem a small part of their outflow. Thank you for explaining.

To me it seems that, so long as everyone agrees that the emperor is wearing clothes, the bubble will remain.

>>107703840
This is a shit graph. Someone tell these people how to divide two numbers.

>>107704456
>To me it seems that, so long as everyone agrees that the emperor is wearing clothes, the bubble will remain.
I think all serious investors already agree the emperor is naked.
The real problem is there is no good alternative to store your wealth in:
- if you sell and hold cash you get hit by inflation
- if you sell and buy stock you'll get raped when interest rates skyrocket after the pop.
- if you sell and buy gold/silver/bitcoin you're now in the gold/silver/bitcoin bubble.

Personally I just reduced my exposure to the AI companies in favor for other sectors.
Unfortunately all sectors will get hit due to a general negative sentiment but they might go up 20% before losing 15%.

>>107704559
>- if you sell and buy stock
mean to say:
- if you sell and buy bonds

>>107704567
I might be retarded so please explain. If the bubble pops, the fed would lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, right? Yields for bonds would probably go up to attract foreign investment, right? So if you’re in T-bills, aren’t you pretty safe? I must be missing something because I thought that government bonds were rather safe here.

There will not be a pop. Too many people use AI now. It's not like dotcom where barely anyone had internet.

>>107704435
Amazon was unprofitable on paper because they put every possible cent into building infrastructure for a few years. ClosedLLM is actually just burning money on operating data centers that they don’t own. They are not the same
>>107704628
>97% of AI users don’t pay for it

>>107704623
The interest rate the federal reserve sets isn't the interest rate you get from bonds.
The latter is simply a matter of supply and demand: a government or company wants to borrow money and investors will lend them that money but only for an interest rate they deem worthwhile.

Problem is if the fed lowers their interest rate inflation increases so your "safe" 3% bonds might devalue 5% per year from inflation (leaving you with 3%-5% = -2% in real terms).

>>107704185
Tesler stock exists with zero respect to market fundamentals already.

>>107704714
the free version will just insert ads

>>107704836
Yes, I know bond yields are separate; you’re saying that the problem is that the bonds wouldnt appreciate quickly enough to keep up with inflation, got it. Still, this could be preferable to a general decline in the market or staying in cash. I agree that jumping to gold/silver/bitcoin is not the way to go.
>>107704886
Yes, but this is just my point. Stocks can remain in bubble territory for a long time so long as nobody calls bullshit (even if they’re thinking it). Tesla is a good example actually. They make a lot of promises that never amount to anything and they don’t make much revenue relative to their stock price. Still, line go up and line stay up. I’m just wondering if anything short of Taiwan invasion will pop the bubble; people seem content to park their money in AI stocks.

>>107703999
who the fuck needs profits when they just inflate the fuck out of their stock by using the unspent cash they've managed to save for decades?

It's not a bubble
Industries across the planet are being reshaped, software engineer is pretty much a dead job, AI is ALREADY making fuckloads of money and its still in the early adoption phase
Post-scaleout when all those data-centres are online its going to be fucking insane.

>>107704944
>Still, this could be preferable to a general decline in the market or staying in cash.
Probably yes.
But it's shitty situation regardless.

Whereas riding the bubble up and jumping off one nanosecond before it pops would be ideal - and that's what most investors are gambling on (and most will lose and cry).
And sure some investors are more sensible and get out sooner (me included) but fund managers who do this will see their customer base leave very quickly so sometimes the irrational thing is the more rational thing.

>>107703946
The latter, and it's getting worse because with these recent valuations, none of these companies have made a cent of revenue yet. Their projections are in those future contracts. So if one falls, they all go down.

>>107704944
Yeah, I was agreeing with you. It's hard to paint a pretty picture with how fast and loose US leadership has been, but I don't foresee Taiwan getting "invaded" per se. They benefit too much from their current positioning and the propaganda mills pay little mind to it.

>>107704354
>OpenAI investment 35X but their revenue went 153X and how the hell is 6X in revenue modestly for nvidia? Microsoft is the only true shiteater in this image
153x of a dollar is 153 dollars.
Sure, that's not what OpenAI made, but to assume because they made 153 of the measly amount they made before means that they're safe forever is also incredibly bad faith. Nvidia, for instance, is only getting revenue in future contracts from other AI companies who earmark their obligations and pass it to the next AI company. Notice the problem if all of them are claiming 153X but their obligations have increased by 2000x? It means they haven't made any money. Worse, it means the money they claim to have made is absolutely annihilated by the costs it has taken to get here.

When you have Altman promising 100 billion in revenue by 2030 to shareholders while obligations still eclipse their revenue, your company isn't healthy. That's only a few years away.

>>107704985
>Whereas riding the bubble up and jumping off one nanosecond before it pops would be ideal
I don't think people have realized just how catastrophic this bubble will end up being. If it pops, you're not jumping off to spend your days in the islands until you retire, you're going to be overseeing weimar levels of inflation and may barely have more than if you buried gold in the back yard.

>>107704970
>Industries across the planet are being reshaped, software engineer is pretty much a dead job, AI is ALREADY making fuckloads of money and its still in the early adoption phase

No it isn't, that's why we're having this thread: >>107703840
When your costs exceed your revenue by, in some cases in this image, 1000 times, then you actually haven't made a cent. You sound like someone claiming he's rich because a credit card lets him withdraw 2000 dollars. But I expect as much from AI fags.

>>107703840
It's okay, any day now that revenue will most defeinitely shoot up to match it. Just 2 more arbitrary time units!

>>107705105
Any day now the "boooooble" will "poooooooooooooop" just 2 more weeks!!!
>oh god oh god oh god the bubble it's it's poooooopping im gonna im gonna im gonna poooooopppppppppppppppp aaaaaaaaahhhhh

>>107705105
>Just 2 more arbitrary time units!
more like 2 more trillions in investments please