Purely from a business perspective, the way AI companies are moving to buy as much hardware as possible recently is really making me raise an eyebrow.We know that venture capital funding for these companies is basically gone, AI stocks flatlined over the past few months or, in the case of some like Meta and Oracle, went down quite a bit.All they can rely on right now is their circular investments and I think what they're trying to do is just turn that cash into real assets with the expectation that the models will just scale themselves, and investors will again be convinced to put money into the system again. This is of course augmented by the fact that companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Micron are the ones giving Open AI and Microsoft hundreds of billions to turn right back around and buy products from Nvidia, AMD, and Open AI.Throughout the cycle we just haven't been seeing the uncapped colossal buy orders we saw at the end of 2025. So what's the endpoint here? When the manufacturers are paying companies to buy their own products and investors aren't seeing the business turn profitable, what happens next? Where does the fire's fuel come from?
Sunken cost fallacy, they've sunken so much capital into this that they're going all in now, it's all or nothing in the hopes of the big payoff in the end
>Where does the fire's fuel come from?Banking sector. That's the source of debt so that's your answer.How it gets into the AI markets is just a matter of technical stuff. Personal debt, corporate debt, government debt.As long as the debt is available this bubble will keep going no matter what. Once the debt stops piling up so does the market.
>i don't get it????? why is this thing that's already producing results now getting more funding and infrastructure built to support it???????the midwits on this website never cease to amaze me
tldr the economy is fake and gay and don't think about it :)
Just collect investments until you become too big to fail without crashing the economy and get the government to pay if you don't win the gamble
>>107741878there is no profit, the returns haven't materialized yet
>>107741839LLMs have already proven themselves as a highly effective propaganda vector. The money will keep coming, the data centers will keep being built, and the earth will burn while a few people try to keep themselves from being decapitated.
>>107741892usually by third grade they teach kids what the word investment means. do your parents know you're on 4chan?
>>107741924hello sir I would like to sell you this epic product, see picrel.I assure you it might not be worth anything now, but it is an investment!
>>107741878There aren't results that are any more impressive from a financial pov than there were three years agoNo one is making money
>>107741890Everyone on this site forgets that the bank bailouts were loans, not free money
>>107741878>that's already producing resultssuch as
If you don't think AI is going to crash in the reasonably foreseeable future, you are extremely reckless.If you don't think AI is going to be The Economy long term, you are extremely blind.When the DotCom bubble burst, many claimed that it was the end of internet commerce. How could anyone know that Amazon would eventually sell more than just books?
>>107742021internet commerce is useful
>>107741985There is no such thing as "a loan." You think there is, but that's propaganda. Many different legal structures take the visible form of "a loan," but handshakes between men who know each other are how business is actually done. The responsibilities you assign to the word "loan" are not the responsibilities anyone of any real importance was beholden to, but they certainly got benefits that look a lot like Free (taken from others in the form of debt slavery) Money.
>>107742030How useful was pets.com? Look out just slightly further beyond the horizon.
>>107742030So are 2000000000 videos of fake irish girls walking with bagpipes playing fake music and creative musician channels with 1200 songs released in 1 year. Try next time.
>>107742049You are not worth discussing finance with
>>107742015are you actually denying that AI is being used currently to assist in things like coding, image recognition and in advanced ML techniques to assist in medicine or are you just being difficult on purpose to be annoying
>>107742021Amazon isn't "the economy" anymore than Sears was the economy in the 80s
>>107742068This is true. If you are part of the problem, then you have no reason to condescend to the plebeians. If you are a cheerleader for the problem, you are too invested in the fiction to realize it is fiction.
>>107741839Everyone knows China is going to attack Taiwan soon so they are loading up for the next 10 years.
>>107742071It's obviously useful but it isn't profitable. Who is making money off of image recognition AI?
>>107741839>Where does the fire's fuel come from?consumer paypigs buying 5k graphix cards for gaming clearlywe will def have paypigs in the couple grand range forever, how could you think paypigs will ever stop pigging?
>>107742081DRAM is made in Korea and the USA
>>107742072>unironically comparing amazon to searsfor the sake of luddites everywhere you should never post ever again
>>107742088meant for >>107742080
>>107742049>but handshakes between men who know each other are how business is actually done.explain to me what blind booking is and then I will give you a firm handshake
>>107742021Amazons “innovation” was Indian slave delivery labor and Walmart tier return policies where you will be refunded for sending back a box of rocks.
>>107742094The difference is AWS
>>107742081Let's use a concrete example. What happens when 90% of oncology imaging is AI, and cancer is detectable years and years before a human with eyesight could? Don't just focus on the immediate effects, what are the knock-on secondary effects that reverberate through the system?
>>107742109What happens when every Siemens, Abbott, and Roche trains their own models off of the popular one since there's nothing illegal about that?There's no money to be made
>>107742114The money to be made is in the redistribution of labour. Ask yourself why secretaries exist, then ask yourself what happens when everyone has access to an infinitely patient secretary that can often complete tasks with minor supervision in a few minutes that should take hours. That is in the future where AI stagnates very soon, and never gets "really" smarter than a bright human, and all advances come from tool use. What happens if we haven't hit the ceiling yet?
>>107741946farmers and hindoos would flip for an infinite shitslop-generating machine. pure profit
>>107741839They don’t ever return the assets a company owns when they go underEventually OpenAI and/or Oracle or any of the other companies will die, and all of the shit that they traded fake fiat dollars for will end up in the hands of someone else that’s not youImagine if you just made a new person whose name was “Anon B” and ran up a million dollars of debt in this fake person’s name. As Anon B, you gift all of the shit you bought to yourself. When Anon B goes bankrupt, you simply say “well shit sorry, Anon B doesn’t own any assets, I guess you’re shit outta luck!” And enjoy being a million dollars in assets richer.
>>107742081>Who is making money off of image recognition AI?>defense companies>security companies>SEO companies>healthcare companies (radiology specifically)>retail companies, who rely on it to detect shoplifting>self-driving vehicle industrythat technology has to come from somewhere. and you're kind of ignoring the whole fact that machines being able to see is the only way we're able to automate certain industries to begin with.
>>107742138>>107742149Then why would I ever invest in an AI company when the profit gains are coming from the businesses that use it?
>>107742148>Eventually OpenAI and/or Oracle or any of the other companies will dieaccording to everyone itt that's simply impossible because AI will go to the moon
>>107741839>Nvidia, AMD, and Micron are the ones giving Open AI and Microsoft hundreds of billionsI'm not aware of AMD and Micron being involved in funding AI companies. They don't have anywhere close to as much liquid as Nvidia to do that kind of thing. Also, Nvidia has a mote around their GPUs and Micron does not have a mote around their memory, so if they tried that scheme the money could just be spent at Samsung instead. I think you're just smashing words together you heard on YouTube without knowing what you're talking about.>>107742081computer vision has been commercially viable for over 2 decades stop trying to legitimize 2022-era Transformer and Diffusion models by comparing them to completely different technology.
>>107742158I'm not telling you to invest in any AI company. My first post in this thread was that I think AI will crash in the relatively foreseeable future. I expect that to take out many current AI companies in the process, very similar to the DotCom bubble. The stock and dividends is not the point, the technology is the point. Again, think of Amazon: could anyone have possibly realized what it would eventually become back in 2000?
>>107742158>why would i invest in infrastructure over the thing that'll be built upon it?/g/'s brightest minds
>>107742169One benefit of AI might be to teach you how to read what people write, instead of hallucinating a different response.
>>107742183Big investor in utility companies, I'm guessing?
It will never crash. This is the last chance to either watch history... or ride it.
>>107742200why are you being such a smarmy nigger. you asked a question and i answered it. i don't have any horses in this race.
Blue Owl backing out of a deal with Oracle was the canary in the coal mine, the capital is already getting cold feet.The music could stop very soon now especially since so much of this shit is so unrealistic but you bet they are going to play for time because all the major players are knee deep in this shit.
any day now it'll be as big as spotify
Videocard became brick in like 10 years, and you saying that's its a good idea to invest trillions in them right now? Imagine someone wasting to buy a gazzilion of 560 back in 2010. How rich would they be now?
>>107742212I don't understand how anyone can look at themselves in the mirror when they need chatgpt to write a tweet.
>>107742212>account based in India
>>107742233That feels like one of the tweets Grok wrote about how his existence is the difference between world war 3 and colonizing alpha centauri
>>107742228I love this example because Spotify isn't profitable either
>>107742212No one ever, ever gets to be mean to Warren BuffetI hate seeing his good name mentioned with this crap
>>107742250Are you sure that's still true? Because YouTube has just as much licensed music and charges the same amount of money for ad-free at least in the USA. And YouTube is profitable despite having more staff, way more revenueless slop, and presumably higher adblock usage.
>>107742229No. What is much more likely to happen is that the resource bottleneck is what will crash the current iteration of AI from most frontier companies. Billions will be lost overnight, headlines will smugly rejoice, and the public will think that's the end of it. One or two companies might survive, whatever. But the employees will still have expertise, and they will be poached. They will especially be poached by people who want to replace graphics cards with a different resource. Right now, AI uses insanely inefficient matrix multiplications of floats on GPUs, because GPUs are what's most available due to existing games/rendering/bitcoin mining demand. But if we are instead building a processor for AI from the ground up, you wouldn't want to use matrix multiplication of floats, you would want to use ternary. The integration of the processors and AI training in one development pipeline will be what arises from the ashes of the crash. The NES replaces the Atari, and life goes on.
>>107742296I looked it up and they become profitable in 2024, good for them. If Open AI keeps it up they might someday be able to make one BILLION dollars every year
EMPANADA
>>107742310ThisOpenAI categorically can’t exist unless we just spontaneously start forgiving debtBut they have established the infrastructure for a national surveillance gridLLMs are retarded, you’re seeing about the apex of what they’re capable of, but ML algos have a lot of headroom to grow. They will never be available to the general public, though, because there must either be an agentic layer above them or they have to be baked into another tool. You MAY see 3rd gen ML in certain applications, or baked into your OS, but you will never be allowed to drive one off the lot.
>>107741839Of course it does not make any sense from a business standpoint, but there's still a valid reason for ai companies doing what they are doing right now.The reason is war, sadly.The big western powers expect (read: are deliberately moving towards) a major conventional war in the next 5-10 years (possibly sooner, we'll see).The thing is, those same powers believe that ai will give them a great strategic advantage against their enemies (China, Russia, Iran and allies)....whether it's true or not (personally I believe not), that's what the guys in power think.So basically, the massive losses / corporate incest / technological plateau won't matter, ai companies will be kept artificially afloat by the western governments (mostly the US).The hardware shortage imho is just them stocking up to be prepared in case of a disruption in global markets.
>>107742388>spontaneously start forgiving debtWasn't everyone on 4chan horrified about this in 2020
A large part of this is also just straight up contempt for artists, programmers and writers who tend to be very of the left of the vast majority of the tech oligarchs.
>>107742475>The big western powers expect (read: are deliberately moving towards) a major conventional war in the next 5-10 years (possibly sooner, we'll see).Been hearing this for about 15 years. It was supposed to be israel then Iran then Ukraine. Well nobody cares about Ukraine. And it's sure as shit not gonna be Venezuela. It probably won't be Taiwan, the US specifically passed the CHIPs act so they wouldn't have to defend Taiwan. The powers do not have anything to gain from major conventional warfare. Also imagining you might get Iran and Russia and China to work together is just terminally online tankie fantasy. Russia and Iran are both close to collapsing. And China needs the US to buy its goods to keep climbing up to high tech manufacturing. Africa has a large population but their demand is for basic goods not high value chain goods. Only the US can reasonably demand high tech goods since the EU has such high VAT and even with tariff crap everything gets an exception. So there will never be a war between USA and China.
>>107741892>yetmost of IT had un-materialized profits long into their Z round of fundingSome are barely making ends meet, and most are constantly hemorrhaging money and calling that a victory due to constant expansion.Name of the game? Be first, grab most of market share, monetize later.Almost like corporations are expansion of the governments under this current system.
>>107742914Even by /g/ standards that is a complete non-sequiter.
>>107742890>Well nobody cares about Ukraine.Did you seriously just retcon out the last couple of years? Did you forget about Germany cutting its own head off with allowing Nordstream and signaling its absurd devotion to NATO? If you think Ukraine is about Ukraine and not a desperate signaling game about the "Pax" Americana, I genuinely do not know what to tell you. And no amount of fantasizing about Russia's collapse makes it true, otherwise "we reduced the ruble to rubble" would have actually "worked" instead of being a hilarious anachronism that lasted all of two weeks.
>>107742532Artists really aren't being killed by AI art.Most people who do commissions for a living get their money from personal touch, not technical skill
>>107742914>Be first, grab most of market share, monetize laterLike Ask Jeeves and Pandora
>>107742475>believe that ai will give them a great strategic advantage against their enemies (China, Russia, Iran and allies).>China, Russia, Iran and alliesHearty kekNone of the governments you've mentioned prioritize other governments as "enemies", rather it's their own populations that they consider to be the enemy, and AI will absolutely cripple those populations allowing for the strategic advantage you speak of.
>openai just need 10 billion paying costumers to not even break even in the next 5 yearsIt will be fun to watch from the safety of my country.The cherry on top would be seeing Kamala or someone like getting elected next election, you guys would get all the ai replacement + all the africans
I have AIslop fatigue.
>>107741839So far all these companies have managed to make number go up, and they promise cornering pretty much every market everywhere if they somehow manage to create AGI. Now the second some big shareholders start having doubts about the industry's capacity for growth and pull out, everything is going to unravel and we're going to start seeing fireworks.
>>107743095>if they somehow manage to create AGIBelief in AGI is the real bubble. "AI" has legitimate uses, but AGI is plain grotesque.
Wait if AI is such a bubble why is there so much AI shit out there in the public space anyways?
>>107743044I could see Trump bailing it out to avoid a bad S&P 500 year
>>107743171They're desperately trying to get people to use it to prove it isn't a bubbleIt's why Open AI started sending out example prompts of how to get back into Chat GPT
>>107743116What do you mean by that?
>>107742049absolute fucking retard
>>107743246Artificial intelligence implies natural intelligence. Artificial general intelligence implies artificial particular intelligence. AGI is a chimera built upon a chimera.
>>107742144>farmersdogshit is actually horrible for farming because its too acidic.
>>107742475yeah when China develops AGI the West will twist it that way that they had to invade to stop autonomous killerbots from killing the human raceperhaps hollywood makes a DUNC prequel set during the butlerian jihad in time
>>107742957bro you are literally high on propaganda copium that's 2 years out of date.
>>107743658I wasn't aware that pipelines spontaneously reassemble. I guess that means the past few years can quietly be swept under the rug and will have no subsequent geopolitical ramifications.
The thing is, a lot of smug blue collar worker types who wanted to replace the creative types are going to be soiling their britches when Drone-technology, vision-to-action and other such becomes the next bugbear which if you have been paying attention will create a lot of noise pollution in the open skies and annoy the fuck out everyone and also proliferate online shooter games and MMOs with bots galore but it would also might even be the first steps to creating those "robots that do the dishes while humans do creative stuff" types post that artfags constantly whine about LLMs not being able to do.
