>AI bubble bursts>market flooded with cheap partsWhat are the chances of this happening?
>>107816272What parts? Data centers aren't using consumer hardware.
>>107816272Unless you want a cheap 1kw ML card that needs loud server fansprobably not
>>107816287Then explain the consumer RAM, HDD, SSD and GPU shortages.
>>107816304the internals are similar and data center parts are hoarding those internals for their specialized hardware.
Investor A will lose their money and other investor B will buy the data center wholesale for 99% off but still more money than you will ever see in your lifetime.
>>107816272everyone spends so much time talking about how the AI bubble will collapse and explode. What if it just simmers down? The exact same thing happened with cloud in the 2010's >when the cloud bubble pops what will you do with the cheap hardware>when the cloud bubble pops finally I can get my sysadmin job back>when the cloud bubble pops>2 more weeks until the bubble pops!I think it's realistic that the AI bubble isn't going to be around for that much longer in the same form but it's just as realistic that it settles into its own industy and never pops. Not a single novel talking point has been made about AI that wasn't said about the cloud bubble in the 2010's. The cloud bubble did pop and slow but now look at it, it's the new "way of life" for techshitters.>inb4 cloud is useful AI isn't>cloud isn't useful the web and telecom were useful!not a single new thought.
>>10781627250/50
>>107816318So data centers are indeed using consumer hardware.
>>107816304its the components on the parts that are the same, you fucking nufag. datacenter gpus dont even have video output, but memory modules on them are the same as on desktpo cards. lurk moar.
>>107816272>What are the chances of this happening?Surveillance corps will just conveniently buy up every data center, almosy like they were built for them
>>107816335Thinking it'll prolly shimmer down, Tesla hasn't popped, not spectacular wealth deletion
>>107816287RTX Pro 6000It's just like an RTX 5090 but better in every way.Der8auer tested it and it works fine for games and outperforms the RTX 5090.Although I suspect Nvidia will kill driver support after the AI bubble pops to try and save their gaming market.
>>107816335I've never heard anyone ever talk about a cloud bubble
>>107816354So data centers are indeed using consumer hardware.
>>107816272absolutely 100%but when? lol
>>107816389>So data centers are indeed using consumer hardware.No, they aren't, chip manufacturers produce generic chips which they use for both market.
>>107816354>datacenter gpus dont even have video outputYes they do
>>107816304the fabs that make them can be used to make enterprise hardware, enterprise hardware can be sold for more.
>>107816387You weren't around or in the industry in the 2010's then.
>>107816438I was and you're full of shit.Show me ONE article talking about this "cloud bubble"....
>>107816272The company I work for just abandoned AI after three years of heavy use, also firing 65% if all employees. All the hardware? Straight to the recycling plant aka dump. Costs more to sell it all than to just erase it from existence. The only thing they are "selling" to meet gubmint standards are old computers aka shitty desktop with several gens old parts.
>>1078162720, they'd rather recycle or bury the parts in a landfill than bringing down consumer prices
>>107816430those are workstation gpus, you fucking faggot.
>>107816477What do you think those "recycling" places do with those parts?Some parts will be sold as is while other parts will be dissembled and turned into Chinese Frankenstein "new" parts. Only the bits that have near zero resale value will be sent to be destroyed and have the precious metals recovered.My point is the used parts market as many different levels and each of these middle men add a percentage till you get to the guy buying a single part off ebay.The closer you can get to buying bulk pallets of merchandise the cheaper the individual component will be.
>>107816535I live in Scandinavia, so those places will autistic-ally disassemble everything and recycle all the material. If they even try to sell anything they will be shut down and fined heavily within a nanosecond.
They can't even meet demand for everyone for AI coding as it sits, having to impose strict rate limits. They'll not get rid of any of that infrastructure, it doesn't matter what the market says.
>>107816272Zero. AI is the future. AI is not a bubble—it's a paradigm shift. AI enhances the human experience 100-1000x. AI-enabled humans are producing more than ever before and are leaving everyone else in the dust. Face it. If you aren't already enhancing yourself and everything you do with AI you will never catch up—ever.
>>107816272-100%Meaning AI will expand vastly and heavy local computing will go extinct.
>>107816611This. You still need to pay per-token for fuck's sake.It's not going away, there is far more demand than supply.
>>107816572You are fined for reselling computer parts?In the US all the decommissioned hardware will be resold and eventually it will end up in China where they will transformed the parts into new parts and get sold as a "new" x99 motherboard to Brazil.They will even take old laptops, rip out the gpus, and create new consumer cards for them to pair with the "new" x99 motherboard.Even parts you think can only be used in a data center will be transformed in time into consumer hardware. Even if the bubble never bursts eventually the data center will buy new hardware and this old hardware will flood the market
Yes in the sense that, when the AI bubble pops, it will be followed by a recession/depression, and so people will be selling computer parts to pay rent. Conversely, prices may go way up if the fed does another round of QE and hyperinflates the currency all over again. Either way, there will be plenty of options available.
>>107816272no one is going to break things down into components and go list them on ebay. the entire data center will be sold as a single item to some investment entity. they're already building data centers off books by using SPVs. the rich will cash out early, all the 401ks will take the loss on AI investment, and then the rich will swoop in and get the equipment back at a massive discount. normal people never win in these games.
>>107816646This is correct. There is no use case for local computing in an AI enabled world. AI replaces and enhances all previous forms of knowledge work—computational and mental.
>>107816732>E=MC^2 + AI
>>107816672>You are fined for reselling computer parts?No but once something is recycled and reaches the recycle center it is very much illegal to sell it. If the company decided to sell it before that, no problem. But they didn't. They simply shipped it all to the dump. Which is heavily monitored, under surveillance and the moment it passes those gates it's just raw material. Few places in my country has stricter regulations. For example, a while back someone very rich accidentally tossed out a very (VERY) valuable sculpture. Small thing but worth a fortune and made in the 1790's. But it had already gone inside the gates of doom at the recycling center and it was done. When his rich ass lawyers got involved it was way too late, it was already melted at that point and worth it's scrap value.
>>107816272about three fiddy. unironicallyif theres a 50/50 chance that the bubble popsa 50/50 chance palantir wont bouy up all the computeand a 50/50 chance something like this >>107816328wont happen youre already at 12.5% chance its gonna be a thing
>>107816752I just find it hard to believe a company would sell things for scrap when they still have value that is greater than the scarpthere are whole companies that exist to profit from that fact. the company that ungraded their data center can just sell all the old computers they replaced to this intermediate company that does the heavy lifting.there are people in the US who basically make their whole living off buying pallets of old computers from companies every few years and then parting them out and selling their for components on ebay
>>107816272at this point you can only bring down prices by law and even then you must be able to enfoce them
>>107816292but what if i want that though?>mfw cant run your ai waifu in your local (bedroom) datacenter
>>107816344same NAND-chip, different connector/chassi/whateverit's not that they're buying consumer ram, they're buying so much server ram that the manufacturer can't/wont produce condumer ram instead (because of NAND chip shortage.
>>107816800>I just find it hard to believe a company would sell things for scrap when they still have value that is greater than the scarpTaxes anon. Taxes and fees.. Scandi-taxes are brutal. And nothing is more brutal than company fees. For a company to sell tech they need to first get all the stuff appraised. Then it need to be confirmed safe and legal (no data left, even stuff without storage), then it needs to be brought to auction or sold via "recycled tech" companies who also do their own check to determine the state, quality and condition of all of it. And they then take a cut of the profit. Meanwhile the state wants their share since 99.9% of companies here are state-funded or at least have gotten enough backing for them to have an interest. And a billion other things. By the time you sell your shit, you can actually lose money on it. The solution? Scrap it. Get the environmental tax cut for recycling.
>>107816916>. For a company to sell tech they need to first get all the stuff appraised.that is crazythe amount of environmental damage being caused by destroying components that could still have a long life. thankfully not all countries are that crazy. keep an eye on aliexpress and maybe in a few years you can get yourself a repurposed gpu with 32gb of vram
>>107816272Just be patient. Sooner or later the market will adapt, supply will increase and prices will go back to the normal level. I waited out the crypto boom so I can wait this one too.
>>107816958>the amount of environmental damage being caused by destroying components that could still have a long lifeTrue but we you have to realize it's the same governments who did this and killed EV's here completely. >https://www.teslarati.com/sweden-ends-ev-incentives-without-warning/>https://www.electrive.com/2022/11/08/sweden-drops-ev-subsidies-with-immediate-effect/>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/sweden-left-behind-amid-ev-rush-in-scandinavian-car-salesIt's not about the environment at all, it's profit.The moment they realized electrical cars killed profits, they killed all reasons to own one. Zero hesitation.
>AI bubble bursts>nvidia sell to the us government the idea of using datacenters to track people speaking against israel/trump>datacenters with nvidia gpus are on high demand againNothing to you, goyim.
>>107816272Prices MAY ease if the bubble pops because they will have no other customers. But you're not going to be able to afford anything if an actual collapse happens over this shit. We're hundreds of billions in the hole at this point. If they collapse, every Tech company falls around them in a domino effect, giving the same effect as if they weren't giving you hardware.
>>107816272never happened before. likely never will.
some company from china will buy up the scrap for pennies and melt it downprices will probably collapse for a while but still be too expensive
>>107816272>market is flooded with barely below retail to recoup losses>gets bailed out by govt anyway
>>107816535At my facility they pull up in a truck and physically destroy the hardware before hauling it off.
Can't wait to buy an 8 H200 rack for $100. Just need to upgrade my home's wiring to handle 10kW!
>>1078162720
Give it a year and it'll happen, if companies can't manage to think of a business model which can produce profits out of AI within this year, it'll pop 100% guaranteed.Maybe they can bullshit their way into next year but that would be as much as they'll be able to go.
>>107816958>>107816800>I just find it hard to believe a company would sell things for scrap when they still have value that is greater than the scarpI live in another european country and there are goverment funds to replace old industrial machinery, but the old one has to brought to a recycler and crushed beyond repair while tax police watchesI have personally recovered some bent control panels for spare partsMost recyclers only care about raw materials and are surprised when you tell them parts they just throw away are valued in the thousands on ebay
>>107816617Parenting to be a dibshit is still being a dibshit
>>107816272Not a snowball's chance in hell. They will destroy the hardware for national security reasons.
>>107816354ITT someone thinks they understand hardware just because they build their own PCs and doesn't understand the difference between DRAM stacks when they're put on server DDR modules vs. PC DDR modules.Or how DRAM wafers are consumed at a 4:1 ratio to create HBM that's packaged using CoWoS next to the GPU dies.Or also, how Nvidia/AMD use different circuit designs for DC GPUs vs. consumer GPUs....I don't think you're trolling, you're just ignorant and don't understand the literal re-allocation of any sort of wafer from consumer over to data center products.
>>107816272Too Ideal. Best you can get is maybe a drop in price, but it'll still stay higher.Corporate scum want their profit and will squeeze you for everything they can.
>>107817884>if companies can't manage to think of a business model which can produce profits out of AI within this yearInference costs are plummeting steadily and everybody can't get enough of the CLI tools the snowball is rolling. /g/ is hilariously wrong on this whole thing
>>107816272>What are the chances of this happening?This would be a good thing, so precisely 0%.
>>107816304Fabricators that do make consumer hardware are expending all of their resources making shit for data centers instead, and thus cannot meet demand for consumer shit.
>>107816272The bubble “burst” will just look like NVIDIA, Microsoft and Oracle losing bunch of stock value but still being valuable. OpenAI and lot of smaller AI businesses like StabilityAI that weren’t acquired yet will go bancrupt. All the datacenters will then be bought for cheap by Google. Nothing in the AI research space will change except hyperscalers scaling less and instead investing into research that isn’t just bigger LLMs. However your parent’s retirement funds will go down to shitter.
Yeah, any day now. AI is going to go bust and all the people using agents and inference engines will stop using them and go back to google. Any day now.
>>1078162720%They'll run all of the hardware through an industrial shredder before even a single keyboard or mouse makes it out into the hands of the general public.But when the bubble bursts the government will just buy the data centers for pennies on the dollar and use them to store information about us.
YES INSHALLAH I CANNOT WAIT TO BUY A 72 GPU GRACE BLACKWELL RACK FOR ONLY $500,000 ON EBAY
>>107816272NPC consoomers will pay whatever it costs. Once the companies see they can charge x, y, z for whatever slop they are selling and the TikTok brained NPCs will buy it anyway, the prices will never come down. Just look at Tendies and Nintendo
If AI crashes the global banking cartel is going to reboot an ETH chain that's keccak PoW again just to make use of all these data centers and graphics cards. Screenshot this.
>>107820519There not using actually video cards you absolute retard. They are using the GPU processors on specialized boards. AI isn't someone shitty Bitcoin shed run by some fat neckbeard.
>>107820452ChatGPT told me I have the biggest white cock in the world. It's right too. I can't stop using it now.
gay
>>1078162720, by the time it happens China gonna be in war so all the parts would be unavailable.
>>107816272I'll happily pick up a cheap rack for the garage. Maybe host a bigger nas on it.
>>107818181you, and your handlers copy-pasta bullshit, need to go back to plebbit and stay there.
>>107816272The billionaires would rather smash every GPU and RAM stick with a slegehammer than to see one of us benefit.
