Realistically speaking, how long do you have before you're completely and utterly replaced?
>1081852182 more weeks
>>108185218not long - it's coming
>>108185218>icon is literally a buttholeizzat lvl 9001
>>108185218replaced as what, i don't even work make sure to pay your taxes though i need a few more hdds
>>108185218something big is happening
>>108185218dev for 2 decades herestarted using claude last week in a new job on a new projectso far i (claude) did work that would took weeks to completeused it for some researches about eurlex (eu law system) and related stuff that i don't want to became an expert ini can imagine i can have another 2 jobs and just vibe them because idc about the quality code in some shitty project for client abc and his eshopif you dont wanna be a dick and produce quality code you can do that by implementing small pieces of code that you review and testyou can use it for researches which would take hours or days to completeai is good but you need to know how to use it
>>108186975the first thing you said is required for the last thing you said, and that's why AI won't meaningfully change employment.Also the bot is designed to make you think you saved a ton of time but in all studies on this, they have found that experienced devs believed they saved time when in reality they actually took longer. (pic rel)imo its a small to medium productivity booster, but the costs are astronomical so the overall gain isn't huge.
>>1081852185 to 10 years and maybe 15% chance.
>>108185218I'm looking forward to the next AI winter so much. You guys never shut the fuck up about it, but also never produce anything of value with it.
Oldfag engineer here.I feel bad for my junior reports. One of them is taking my specs and sending them directly to Claude, then shipping the result back to me for review without applying judgement. It's like I'm using Claude with a middleman that slacks and gets lots of things wrong.I would be ok with the inefficiency if the guy was putting any effort at all in understanding and developing his skills... But he is not, and will get fired soon.At the same time, I see "seniors" get basic thinking wrong all the time. You can tell people that have python as their first language don't really know much about how computers work and that severely hinders their capability to work in complex systems.The knowledge and judgement required for certain types of critical systems is becoming scarce, so one would say the experts are in higher demand.But I actually think this does not matter. Meaningful thinking is getting buried over stacks of bullshit reports, documents and piles of meaningless patches that bring nothing to he table. Attention spans are shortening to the point that nobody can focus on anything enough to distinguish fact from fiction.So I see it's definitely possible that companies continue to get rid of the folks that are preventing it from shooting themselves in the face out of pure ignorance.Nobody is safe, even if AI can't do your job. It just takes a social climber that believes that it can repeating BS enough times in the right circles
>>108185218Im enhanced, not replaced
>>108187226Post a real world project you made with AI that is of any value.*poof, he's gone*
>>108187248https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/someone-has-already-made-a-free-in-browser-3d-model-to-bypass-discord-age-verification-that-works-on-any-potato-computer/N
>>108187263couldn't you just print out and put a photo of an adult over your face to do the same?
>>108187279No, they changed shit so you need to ooen your mouth and turn your head. Some people have had blink tests too.
>>108187282cut out mouth and eye holes won't work?
>>108187285No. Skyrim and Oblivion Remastered work with mods, Death Strandings photo node too for some, or Gary's mod.Mine is just a html file and a 4mb model though
>>108185218dont know, dont careand im still not gonna use it
>>108185218Not in my lifetime. Better prepare for the next AI winter.
>an_asshole.jpg
>>108187002It actually makes sense for complex projects you already know. Also AI imo hardly helps with understanding, you have to put in real work to understand the project, AI just makes me avoid the pain. The good thing is that I can vibe slop the easy parts at least.
I'm optimistic about AI and I'm not very confident it's going to replace me. I wish it would, I don't want to write software, I do want to use software written by me.
I've been noticing the more I use Claude, the more my brain switches off writing code. The planning and architecture noggin' is still there, but the rote implementation makes me go "this shit is beneath me" these days. I can usually punch in what I've speced out into Claude and it'll usually one-shot it.
>>108185218The further you are into a project the less reliable agents are. If you're developing a complex enough system it inevitably becomes a tangled web that AI agents with the current context window limitations and fundamental logic flaws cannot deal with.All that said, I'm talking about web apps. I can't imagine agents being used to competently program systems that require a high degree of optimization.So, "realistically speaking", it won't even replace web developers. It's a tool like any other, but this tool takes natural language as input and that fools people into thinking it's magic. It's not. There isn't a world where a company assigns a person with zero technical expertise to develop an app or website and the result is satisfactory.Optimistically, the way agents speed up the development process by automating the boring and time consuming tasks (scaffolding, boilerplate, writing tests, basic CRUD, dockerizing, etc) leaves more time for developers to improve features and work more on things that agents are bad at, and that will raise the bar of expected software quality, which means companies who try to cheap out on developers will not survive.Pessimistically, developers will be lazy like they always were and work less instead, offloading more and more tasks to agents, enshittifying software further, lowering the bar of expected software quality, allowing companies to cheap out on developers and deliver shit software.Of course, I'm talking about webshit and "apps" in general. Critical systems will remain unaffected, I hope. I can't see airplane software being written by AI agents, ever.
>>108187658> Critical systems will remain unaffected, I hope. I can't see airplane software being written by AI agents, ever.I have bad news for you...
>>108187091>nobody is safe, even if AI can't do your jobExactly. AI doesn't have to replace shit. If management believes AI allows them to fire more people, they do, and nothing changes, for them that's a win. Nothing changes because the people fired didn't do jack shit.
>>108187317wtf
>>108185218About 50 years.
>>108187002I disagree, Ive been doing claude hard and it has definitely helped me do a week project in a day. Moving an email server is more minor code wise so I put an old crud website of mine up to get reactored. Did it last night see how the results fare. I even got it to fix the obsidian tray plugin mobile bug. It might not scale with larger projects. I think its best to keep scopes and tasks tight.>>108186975I love the research time it saves. Not always right but can help me down the right track or give me an idea I missed but usually I already knew the answer.
my profession is AI-proof
>>108186975I am a Europoor lawyer and just hours ago caught this lil nigga giving wildly inaccurate but subtle misinfo on an administrative law related issue. A layman may not have caught it. Do whatever you want ;)
>>108189721Taxman here, pretty much the same experience, I can only ask it basic questions about tax law and it starts hallucinating pretty quick with follow ups. Anything more complex going deep into regulations and it makes up bullshit from the start. Firm even tried a model trained on past tax jurisprudence and we were still wasting time checking if it wasn't coming up with bullshit(it did many times).
>>108189721Yeah subtle bugs with code too. Kinda better than jeets I work with. 5 years to replace me?
Great rubber ducky to pitch new ideas to btw.
what am I missing if i use cursor or just regular vs code extensions + paid api keys?
AGI is just around the corner sirspls invest sirs or china wins
>>108187467someone is forcing you to write code at gunpoint?
>>108190202I've waited more than 2 decades for people to write any of the software I want and nobody has. For projects that already exist there are bug reports older than the average posting age of this board.I'm not forced to write it, and the problem is neither is anyone else.I can write it, or I can force the machine to write it, but the machine sucks ass at doing this right now.
>>108185218>computers enhance productivity by 100%>AI enhances it by another 100-500% where applicable>still have to work 8 hours a day>can't even flirt with female coworkers in the current year anymore because it would be "unprofessional">the alternative is being homelessI want off Mr.Shekelberg's ride
>>108190031Cursor is perfectly capable if you force the most expensive settings. Auto off, opus 4.x on, max mode on, always use plan mode, etc. It even has some stuff (codebase indexing, LSP integration) set up out of the box that needs to be set up separately with CC which can be a pain.The problem is that, with those settings on, it's obscenely bad value compared to a CC subscription. You'll use up your monthly limit very quickly and then get billed for overage at API prices. You can use weaker settings to make it last longer, but then it stops being at all comparable to CC.Unless someone else is paying the API bill and doesn't care, I'd avoid any third party offerings like Cursor. They're unable to offer subsidised pricing so they can't compete on value. Go with a first party subscription (Claude, Codex, or Gemini).
>>108185223this. Two weeks sounds about right.
>>108185218>you're completely and utterly replaced>turd gets flushed down toilet>replace itlol
>>108185218By an AI? Till the day I die minimum.By an desperate enough Indian/Indonesian/Philipino? Could be tomorrow if we're being honest here.But I'm not a softwarefag so YMMV
>>108185218about 14 days.
>>108185218They really couldn't come up with a better logo than someone using the line tool in Paint to draw a butthole?
>>108185218Just about every dev online of any renown is saying that AI writes the majority of their code, some say up to 90%. The only thing that's stopping mass layoffs is that most companies still think the pinnacle of AI is opening Microsoft Copilot and having it create a PowerPoint or create one or two functions at a time. The vibe shift around vibe coding happened less than 2 months ago, so it makes sense. Once more companies become aware of "agents" and Codex/Claude Code, it's game over for 75% of devs who become surplus to requirement because let's be honest, no programmer is struggling to meet deadlines because of code-writing speed, and now they won't even be able to inflate task/US estimates.The slop code is not good, we can all agree to that. The people who are impressed by the code are juniors who are beyond FUBAR and seniors who coasted for 20+ years. It's just functional enough and everyone has just tuned out and accepted that code is ephemeral and hopefully the next version of Codex will be able to fix the tech debt created by the last. Everyone's also tuned out because prompting is somehow even worse than meetings and slop PRs are soul-draining. Many people may just straight up quit because tech and programming are dead.
>>108190291You sound like a gigantic faggot
>>108191278This reads like projection out of nowhere.
>>108185218I was just playing around with Claude Code, it reached the usage limit after 20 minutes, looks like I have to pay $200 to have some decent capacity.These things are powerful but they're way too expensive, I doubt they'll reach profitability, compute is just too pricey.
>>108185218i made some shit up on reddit, asked ai about it and it spit out my own bullshit answer.
>>108191295I use GitHub copilot in vs code. It's 18 bucks and I'm in love with it. It starts to wear down eventually but it is after 4 hours of constant abuse.
