When will memory prices go back down?
>>108704584Your money is worth less.
>>108704584they wont just like gpu prices never went down. car prices never went down. food prices never went down. gas prices never went down. it's not an issue caused by AI, that's just a convenient scapegoat. the issue is that companies must always earn more money than they did last year or the shareholders will kill them.
>>1087045841-2y after the AI megacorps hit funding limits or regulatory limits on buying quite as much?A few months if governments start smashing the supply chain if they don't get RAM/computer part supplies for their country AND/OR if the AI bubble pops and the RAM makers really need to get the volume that was booked sold to a NOT insolvent audience.
>>108704602They wanted it to happen. They already had used the cartel organization to push up minimum prices so they don't have as much price pressure, but then the crazy AI investments made it possible for a few entities to order tons of RAM at a much higher price.And they just went with it with zero regard for existing customers. Which you'd think they can do, but I think it'll have some consequences at nation state levels... and those companies' supply chains are global in a rather true sense.
>>108704609> if the AI bubble pops and the RAM makers really need to get the volume that was booked sold to a NOT insolvent audience.this can't happen because the ram the ai companies are buying is not gamer consumer compatible. all of their factories were re-tooled to pump out server chassis specific modules. it would take them at least a year after this to re-tool again.
It'll take years for CXMT to be competitive in memory production.Even by 2032 they'll still be considered second-tier to Samsung.So not until mid-2030s.It could be sooner though if there's a burst bubble without a government bailout.But most are expecting a bailout because the US government views AI as a national security project like the space race.
>not a single manufacturing company has increase production despite massive increase in demandIsn't that weird?
>>108704624There would be no other way, either the HBM or somehow produced DDR5 would be going to the market.They certainly won't just stand still for years hoping that an insolvent company gets rescued and pays for the orders after all.
>>108704628Chinese ram doesn't have to be the best, it just has to be affordable (while not being total dogshit). If 32GB of chinesium gets 10-15% less performance but it costs 100 dollars instead of 400, nobody will GAF except the autists here. Most people will gladly buy it.
>>108704584When you firebomb Sam Altman, so not anytime soon.
>>108704584Why don't they want us to run AI locally?
>>108704603spbp
>>108704584Billionaires are fighting over who gets to summon the machine god. Maybe it kills everyone, maybe it crowns the winner immortal king of the universe. Worth the gamble when you're old and sociopathic. Only certainty is that ramlets can't win. There's infinite demand and prices are never coming down.
>>108704799you wont be allowed to buy it, it'll be illegal to import and sell just like chinese cars and chinese routers.
>>108704584No
>>108704584when you and your homo friends stop using AI god dammit.
>>108704584YOU VILL OWN NOTHING
>>108704584Probs sometime next year, could also be several months sooner or later tho.
>>108704584memory is still cheaper thab it was in the 1980s and 1990s. Memory didnt get cheap until after the node processes matured in the USA and Japan and then productions moved on to Korea and Taiwan. Where else can it move to be manufactured more cheaply? China is making memory now but only in domeatic consumption quantities. It’s the cost of doing busines now. If you are too poor to afford this hobby them maybe buy some marbles or a deck of playing cards. most of you would be better off investing for your future instead of playing games on expensive computers
>>108704584after the bubble pops (end of this year)
>>108704584Somewhere by 2030
>>108704584Never. Supply and demand is dead. It was driven up in the first place by tax breaks, subsidies and cheap credit for tech companies so they can build massive data centers for AI that doesn't even work. Literal Soviet Union tier bullshit. Best case scenario inflation catches up to then RAM price.
>>108704584never, unless china steps in and starts making lower speed ddr4/ddr5. because barely anyone needs those extreme speeds. while they're at it, make cheap nvme's that do like 1000mb/s, again 99.999% of people do not need 7000mb/s.
>>108704603All of those things did go back down in price, just not lower than where they started.
>>108704584Lots of people seem to think 2028 as new fabs come online, but who knows if those will produce any consumer DDR or just focus everything on HBM. Then again, assuming the Capex is flowing freely those factories will hit just in time for the next big upgrade cycle assuming 3-ish years of lifetime for AI hardware.
>>108704584Never.Once a company realizes they can sell something at a higher price they will never accept a lower price. They control the supply so they will artificially limit it so it's always lower than the demand, creating artificial scarcity to maintain the current price or slowly increase the price. That's end stage capitalism. You will own nothing. You will rent everything. You will be happy.
The previous low price was due to china dumping, it was never a normal price point nor is it sustainable
About 5 years with some luck. New fabs must produce the goods and saturate the market, then maybe the price will go down. It won't be fast, if it ever happens.
>>108704584hopefully never>>108704622take your crazy pills
>>108704584When did GPU prices go back down? The answer is they haven't. Why would you charge less when people are willing to buy it at a higher price? Welcome to the new normal.
>>108707024This. I would be happy with bigger, slower nvmes
>>10870458496GB will be dirt cheap, once games start requiring 128GB
>>108708776>I would be happy with bigger, slower nvmesheres your nvme, bro>64 TB capacity PentaLC, DRAMless, with endurance rating of 32 TBWThat will be $10k please
i have been assured many times and with great confidence that "the bubble" is either currently popping or is about to pop.
>>108704584why should it?
>>108708904>"the bubble" is either currently popping or is about to pop.true, except the bubble is the US dollar, not so-called AI
>>108704584neveruntil a group of boys in brown trousers and shirts storm the HQ and paddle the CEOs and shareholders with batons
>he didn't upgrade Q1 2025lol, lmao!
