>Six months ago, people arguing that AI was a bubble were pointing to real-world facts, whereas people arguing against the bubble hypothesis were making speculative promises about the future. Today, the roles have reversed. AI’s explosive growth may yet encounter some new unforeseen obstacle. But the burden of proof has shifted to the naysayers.https://archive.ph/MaQ36
>>108736555Cool. "Ai" could replaced by a reddit search api though. Doesn't need 3 trillion dollars and the invention of cold fusion.
>>108736555>Anthropic expects to turn a profit in 2028 and OpenAI in 2030.So it's a bubble. >the burden of proof has shifted to the naysayers.Profit """predictions""" aren't proof.
>>108736596The revenue is growing though. What's your proof that it won't grow till they turn a profit?Earlier, bubble proponents pointed to revenue not growing.
>>108736596>turn a profit with upfront investments in hundred-billion scaleyou know there's no industry like that, right?
>>108736611>grow till they turn a profitYou failed school
>>108736611Are AI companies reporting venture capital "investments" as revenue? Are AI companies reporting circular deals as revenue? How much of their revenue comes from subscriptions?>>108736625No other industry has been driven solely by FOMO, with no clear path towards profitability, even the space race had some applications for military use and civilian use.
>>108736555The burden of proof is on AI psychosis sufferers to demonstrate an objectively verifiable use case for statistical token shitters.
>>108736649It's unironically doesn't matter. if the US has managed to hold this strong of a moat on something relatively very simple like social medias (you are on one, lmao), how strong of a moat do you think AI will be for them?
>>108736555we are almost a year ahead of ai2027. AGI within months. then we probably all die.
>>108736611>increase prices slightly and kill off moneyburning machines like sora>profits goes upwow crazy. if they do this x100 without losing any customers or quality they might start being remotely profitable! at that point, it's only a matter of millennia before they manage to pay the investors back. I knew Sam Altman was playing 4d chess all along. perhaps we will even see AGI too? i'm betting on about 2 more weeks.
>>108736672There's nothing to show that profits have gone up
>>108736625literally everything requires upfront invesments, you high time preference actual nigger.the zitron contrarian retard fa/g/got position today is just "ABLOO ABLOO PLEASE ABANDON YOUR INVESTMENT RIGHT BEFORE IT TAKES OVER THE ECONOMY", you are coping, and you are seething, you just can't accept what you're seeing.you don't even have any arguments besides being a contrarian fag.
>>108736660>social mediasThat can change at any time, MySpace and AoL are dead, nothing about facebook or twitter or instagram are permanent, any country can make social media and ban competing social media to boost their own. America would have banned TikTok if Tencent didn't sell it to a Jew in America. >>108736660>how strong of a moat do you think AI will be for them?These hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in AI have opportunity costs, shoveling money into the AI furnace to the point that it props up your gdp growth has huge downsides on other industries. If the AI boom doesn't materalise, AI companies will be left with dozens of Megawatt sized data centres, financed by huge debts, sitting derelict, AI companies will be sitting on thousands of expensive expensive AI chips rapidly depreciating in value, and the real winners of the AI race could be those who just never took part.
I think people are misinterpreting anon's pointhow long did it take for youtube to be profitable? (if they even are yet)how long did it take for fucking amazon to be profitable?are they bubbles?
We already have ACI (Artificial Capable Intelligence), AI capable of doing tasks better than most workers, we just need fusion reactors - Altman, 2022
anthropic's arr went from 9b at start of 2026 to 30bn in marchit's 44bn nowinference margins are over 70pc
>>108736708nobody with a brain listens to this jewish salesmanhe's like if elon musk wasn't funny and didn't have any ethical misgivings
>>108736727hi elon
>>108736734hello anon
>>108736703For AI, you might say that its path to profitability is the same as SaaS, but AI is still not advanced enough to do even a small fraction of the things AI companies are promising. You wouldn't buy a photoshop license with Adobe promising that at some point down the line the paintbrush will paint on the digital canvass, yet that's what all these companies firing their workers for AI are doing, because AI companies keep promising that their AI will be able to replace their Human workforce.
>>108736687>literally everything requires upfront invesments,Actually no.But anyway, not on this scale.
>>108736764>AI companies keep promising that their AI will be able to replace their Human workforce.is that actually what they tell their investors? do investors expect that to happen?I'd say nowhere's the bubble?
>>108736769the railways bubble was bigger.
>>108736555checked. rip cuck zitron.
>>108736782>is that actually what they tell their investors?That's what Altman said.>do investors expect that to happen?Who knows what's going on in their heads, maybe they just want to burn some cash.>where's the bubble?The bubble is in the immensely inflated AI company valuations compared to the actual usefulness of their products.
>>108736798most good/popular stocks are inflated to hellbut in this case people are grouping that with the technology being a bubble for some reasonif all you mean is "the gravy train is gonna stop at some point", sure. But ai in and of itself is not gonna "pop"having the ability to be profitable at prices people are willing to pay is all it needs
>>108736555the question of where the capital is coming from is still open, I'm not seeing an answer yet so I'll try again in another 6 months
>>108736812>having the ability to be profitable at prices people are willing to pay is all it needsAnd that's never going to happen, especially with the free AI models from China. OpenAI and Anthropic are going to go bankrupt since they can't payback their investors and their debtors.
>>108736828then they'd be lying about becoming profitable in a couple of years (they could be)I don't think anything is gonna pop. Maybe one or two providers will be eaten up by the others, but I don't see this stopping beyond less investor interest
>>108736842>then they'd be lying about becoming profitable in a couple of yearsSam Altman is a dedicated liar>less investor interestThat's enough to pop the bubble. The AI industry is filled with circular deals that if any company fails, most of them fails. That's why OpenAI failing to meet their revenue targets sinks the stocks of other companies doing business with OpenAI.
i'm from the future (2036), the bubble has popped ama.
>>108736875Who won the AI race in the end?
>>108736555OP here, if there's a bubble show it to me!I can't see no bubble, I can't see anything remotely shaped like a bubble.
>>108736881depends on win condition.anthropic remains a couple of months ahead in lab settings. openai deploys faster than they do though. google is 6 months behind. doesn't really mean much after a certain threshold was crossed though.
>>108736875>the bbubble has popped ama.which bubble has replaced the AI bubble then?
>>108736903nothing. we're in a deflationary spiral. it's fine though.
>>108736864>Sam Altman is a dedicated liaraka: jewI guess we'll see. It might get more expensive, but I still don't see a stop from investors equaling ai itself popping
>>108736587Reddit API wont modify the data as per your requirements
>>108736666Nah satan, I don't believe you
>>108736703IIRC youtube got profitable in betweenRegardless even if AI bubble pops like dotcom bubble it will still emerge in a more stronger version that is sustainable similar to how internet emerged with Web 2.0
>>108736923exactlythe only bubble I see happening should be discussed on /biz/
>>108736555naysayers haven't borrowed too much private capital at a high rate of interest, so naysayers don't need to do anything
>>108736555>anthropic and openai charge over 10x as much as deepseek v4 (a yuge 1.5T model that’s almost as good) for inference through api>mouthbreathers will still tell you that they’re incinerating money in an industrial furnace
>>108736660You don't pay to use social media though. You go to whatever platform other people already went to because the government herded them there through the university system or legacy mass media.When you're talking about a service that's a big part of a company's bottom line, they aren't going to keep their money in the US out of simple inertia or because they read about it in a news article. You already see this with deepseek, and that's just something the chinks did for lulz.
>>108736660>how strong of a moat do you think AI will be for them?Not strong at all, given that tou can switch the llm provider with a few clicks. What moat (like a network effect for social media) exists for ai sloppa? I can have a single chat with 10 different models.
>>108736660Social media moat comes from network effectt. AI cannot realistically have a long term moat as users only care about output and Open Source models keep catching up to them within a year
>>108736943the only ones that pay api costs instead of subscription are their big enterprise clientsexactly the ones that will get mba's to optimize their llm spend and move to cheaper alternatives once they see they could save 10x for minimal loss in performanceit's even worse as models get better and diminishing returns kick in
>>108736555>But the burden of proof has shifted to the naysayersfalse, the burden of proof ALWAYS lies with the person making extraordinary claims. I don't need to disprove your AI, I know it's a lie, you're the one telling me otherwise so you prove it. Asking me to prove you correct is admitting you have nothing yourself. Also who the fuck under 50 reads the atlantic? that's your dad's favourite propaganda outlet
>>108736916how many good things have actually happened to you? face it, we'll be dead soon. or in insane agony until the proton decay. nothing good ever happens.
>>108736660If 4chan is social media, like my post and follow me.
>>108736555post profits
>>108738045Both openai and antrophic wuadrupled their ai prices and cut the amount if tokens you get on subs by half, I think they’re fine
>>108736999>there's a huge bubble around something useless because... there just isthat's the extraordinary claim you have to proof, retard
>>108738089That just means they can only afford to lose half as much money per token.
>>108736660They had to rob Tiktok at gunpoint.
>>108738212You only have to be alive >20 years to see what's coming.
I like AI chatbots and the idea of using something more helpful than google to get where I want. I've come to grips with the idea that I'm not gonna be able to use these reliably without paying at least a small fee a month, and for now I'm limiting what I do with them to a point where if I can help it I never use them. But Claude has proven useful more than once.I don't like anything else about AI, I don't like image generation (only image correction, removing backgrounds or noise), I don't like redacting shit as I really dislike what I would call "AI language" that uses terms and formatting that obviously looks AI generated, and I don't like all of this "I'm going to give AI the keys to my fucking house". The idea of running an AI agent on my computer or even a spare one for full convenience is bonkers to me because there is absolute zero guarantee that safeguards are going to be fully respected. And these chatbots only really run well on hardware I do not have or cannot afford.
chatbots are smarter than It. frogposter
thats a top signal
Claude Code loses shit tons per customer, thoughbeit
>>108736812>having the ability to be profitable at prices people are willing to pay is all it needsDo you have any idea how many businesses have failed to do that throughout history?
>>108739679do you?could've said the same about video hosting 4 years ago
>>108736690>and the real winners of the AI race could be those who just never took partlike Apple
>>108739716I'm pretty sure the new CEO is going to go all in
is the revenue coming from selling AI or from AI (specifically LLMs like claude/gemini/copilot) actually improving things? also does the revenue outpace the costs?
>>108739596exactly
>>108739832Problem is it doesn't matter how much you improve things because LLMs are so vulnerable to distillation. It's like spending $100bn developing a JAR file. Training is an absolute mug's game.>also does the revenue outpace the costs?Not with Donny and the Towelheads throwing down it won't.
>>108739892How do you plan to take off into a $300 oil barrel? Is it AGI?
>>108736555lmao that headline reminds me of the briefings the Iraqi information minister gave during the war back in 2003.It's such obvious bullshit you can't help but laugh.
>>108736708>ACIFirst time I've heard that term. Sounds like somebody is shifting the goalposts.But it's totally not a bubble, right?
>>108736727>ethical misgivingsAI is build on a foundation of theft. Elon pretending he has the moral high ground in any way is a complete joke lol.
>>108736555Clever bookkeeping using mutual dick sucking investment is neither growth nor profit, nor should it be counted as revenue
>>108736555cloud AI is though....
>>108736555>RevenueAnd yet they're burning significantly more on datacenters to run all this shit, meaning they don't make profit. They're in the red, they're losing money on this.The only reason any of this is still going on is because VCs with more money than sense keep throwing investment money at them.
Let me know when AI can fix the housing shortage.
Let me know when AI can increase global average human IQ and exterminate all niggers and browns.
>>108740333>exterminate niggers and brownsanon I have some excellent news for you
>>108740350What is it? I'm all ears.
>>108740259AI basically replaced cloud as the euphemism for things rich people are going to do to you.
>>108736649This stupid Bloomberg chart has been setting off my autism every time it's posted so here's what it would look like if the creator wasn't intentionally misrepresenting the complexity of these relationships. It's not circular to invest in your customer if you expect them to grow and purchase more of your hardware/services in the future.
>>108740962I forgot figure AI but it doesn't matter since the author just added it and other unimportant companies like Ambience Healthcare so it would make the chart look more complicated. And somehow they didn't include Anthropic despite it being way bigger than X and Mistral
>>108736784The rail infrastructure reduced the cost over wagon transport by 20 times and was proven in smaller markets, so by definition it was never a bubble. The AI bubble is far more similar to the dot com era where there are going to be more losers than winners, and ROI is decades away even after success.
>>108736703False equivalence fallacy. Just because some cherry-picked businesses took many years to become profitable doesn't necessarily mean all businesses will become profitable if enough money is thrown at it.
>>108736555Check this image, it will help you understand what kind of people hate ai and think it’s a bubble.
>>108736555China has released Deepseek for free to destroy the US for profit AI models.GFL.
>>108741021Nice projection tranny.
>>108736660There's no network effect with AI. Any model will work with any harness. Nothing makes them sticky.
>>108741120today I learned there’s a reddit for trolling
>>108741120Snailcat transgender falseflag. Cope you will be replaced
>>108736555there is no fucking AI bubble. It's just an excuse to jack up the prices of electronics to price out goys from owning personal computing devicesI can't believe you retards actually fell for it. Get ready for the 2nd "crisis" they will manufacture to jack up prices even more when Brent oil reaches $200
>>108736555>The Atlantic
>>108736555Cool
>>108741021Sorry but the ai bubble will be popped, spammer.>>108741350Arrest you will be nuked by a bomb.
>>108736611>The revenue is growing though. What's your proof that it won't grow till they turn a profit?
>>108736555>big companies say AI is somehow doing good now>tfw I see commercials and ads here in the US shitting on AIWho do I believe?
>>108741844You’re transgender
>>108736999/Thread
>>108736555ironic they're using claude code as their shining example when there's been all of this shit lately about anthropic intentionally gimping it to sell more tokens and allegedly planning to lock it behind MAX plans exclusively. not really the kind of thing a company would do if it was finally getting close to profits
>>108742011There will come a time when you will pine for the days when AI didn't exist.
>>108736596also turning a profit doesn't mean profitable. they've both burnt ungodly amounts of money the past couple years, it will take forever for their investors to start getting back more than they put in
Take everything The Atlantic says and reverse it and you will be correct 70% of the time.
>>108736555>This article was sponsored by Claude™
>>108738401Bought with what's considered peanuts for them, yes. Also, they will get the money back in full and also profit massively
>>108736587>"Ai" could replaced by a reddit search api thoughNo it couldn't.
>>108736555>AI isn't a bubbleits a scheme to steal investors money
>>108736555It doesn't matter anyways because it's too late. Either the AI bubble bursts and causes the next depression or AI succeeds and causes the next depression.
>>108740359There's fully automated kill chains now with pipelines in place where an AI agent makes the final call on whether to strike or not, literally skynet tier stuff
>>108742027You're grandmutt
>>108736611AI companies are losing money on their subscription plans so more users does not fix the problem. Imagine you are a baker, and you decide to try out the subscription model of baking where people pay you subscriptions and you deliver them free bread. Now imagine that this business model is not really profitable because average subscriber eats more bread then the price of the subscription. Now imagine your bakery became 10x more famous and got 10x more customers. Would you turn profit? No because you are losing money in each customer.
>>108736555All that money to make a fancy search engine with "feelings".
>>108741013Last 15 years all of 'big tech'(FAGMAN) ran the same playbook where they invested all the revenue on infrastructure and new features purposefully keeping profit as close as possible to zero. It's the maximum growth strategy, taking profit does not grow the business. There are no dividends being shared, the investor is rewarded by the share price increasing.
>>108736611>What's your proof that it won't grow till they turn a profit?Roblox has the most active users of any game platform.Doesn't make a penny of profit. If they can't make money AI is fucked.
>>108740962>complexity of these relationshipsJudaism.>here have 100 million>wow thanks you have 100 million too>wow 200 million of investments BUY STOCK NOW GOYKill yourself.
>>108742928roblox is worth 32 billion, when they started it was worth 0$you don't need profit to become rich
>>108740984>posting an ugly jeetWhat brings a person to do this? Why do you suck this jeets cock for free?Kill yourself.
It's not a bubble, it just have to crash and hit rock bottom first, then it'll shoot back up! Investors please don't leave!
>>108742268Okay, but is it targeting inner city blacks and FOB browns?
>revenueInteresting to see this tactic being used on /g/ after /v/ just had a huge wave of player count graph spam.The same way that game sales and player count do not say anything about a game's merit, is the same way revenue does not speak to the merit of AI.People are spending money on it, enough money that those companies profit.Where in that sentence does it say the product is good. Because I've used them for free and for pay and have come to the conclusion they waste more of my time than they save. Irrelevant of price.Anthorpic finally getting revenue is great for them, but how does this impact me? It doesn't.
>>108736635He mistook AI for a public sector project.
>>108736660I think it's weird to count 4chan as a social network.Bots are powerless here specially for the reasons that make 4chan anti-social.There is no reputation here, posts are required to stand on their own merit. There is no social aspect of the site, we don't form a society or any kind of relationship beyond 2 posts. Bot spam is chaff that gets ignored at best and replied to at worst, it has no actual sway or influence.Real humans have tried to sway the public like that here and elsewhere for generations and it never works.The idea that AI is going to do any better is doubtful, especially since at best it will be on par with the humans I said get ignored already by other real humans, only replied to by bots and the mentally stunted.
>>108736923>a more stronger version that is sustainableGoogle's search engine has been a thing for two and a half decades.
>>108743737It is effectively a public sector project because the government is expanding its purchases of AI services. Unless you think the America will collapse, AI revenue will continue to increase.
>>108740333>increase global average human IQ and exterminate all niggers and brownsThose two are the same thing though.
>>108741013>>108736703>>108736923YouTube may as well be a public service funded by Google and governments by proxy. I don't even think they intend on making a profit, and I say that despite their continuous tactics to money gauge their users.
Crazy that Youtube still doesn't have an audio only mode to cut down on bandwidth.
>>108743761It could be a loss leader that brings profits to its adsense ecosystem as a whole
>>108743756>Those two are the same thing though.No.
>>108741021You see the problem is that Indians made the snailcat too cute to hate. I will never be insulting by the insinuation of snailcat.
>>108740333It'll probably lower the former and do the latter by accident.
>>108736555It's actually a much more complicated issue. The history of that technology is complicated and nuanced. It's just so much more complicated. Look I studied abroad for a semester I understand the nuance. It's "nuanced". Complicated thoughts.
>revenuetheres that word again
>>108736722>ARR>RevenueThis isn't profit.More jewish accounting tricks.
So, we're really not going to talk about the actual profit model that, say, Dario explains in interviews? Regardless of if you think it's jewish lies or makes actual sense?We're not going to mention about how model inference itself (Anthropic or just 3rd party inference providers like idk Novitai or FW) is literally profitable now and will continue to be? We're not talking about R&D/inference/infra buildup balance and how this relates to actually being profitable overall?We're not even going to broach any of this, 136 posts in? We're just gonna go "it's a bubble" and "it's not a bubble" and "investors are getting scammed" and "investors are not getting scammed" and "AI is useless" and "AI is not useless" at each other like monkeys flinging shit? Okay. Fucking niggers.
>>108736889>the true adventures of Chad>the guy who was so into>super monkey ball deluxe>that he decided>to liiiiive in a ball!
>>108741120Any subsequent porn made from that gpt generated transter?I want to see her jigglers and hard throbbing cock to jack mine offJk that would be gay
>>108744111>>108744234>mfw zoomers too young to remember that the biggest tech companies in the world spent over a decade burning piles of cash for much less useful garbage with far lower stakesthe market will eat u boys alive
>>108736555Technologies don't just disappear but some of the companies will.
>>108744444>>108744111Checked>>108743950Won't happen xd. If anything it will kill all the whites and upper-tier browns first.
>>108744868Jews aren't white though.
I mean, if I keep saying it will rain, eventually it will but that doesn't make a prophet or an economic genius, just some retard that parrot the same shit everyday
>>108736611>The revenue is growing though. What's your proof that it won't grow till they turn a profit?Revenue is tied to subscriptions burning tokens. Burning tokens is tied to hardware resource usage. Hardware resource usage is tied to operating costs. And those are actually the dominant costs.So unless the relation between these is somehow magically turned sublinear, scaling revenue is going to scale operating costs by a similar factor and thus in a net-loss situation, scaling revenue is not going to generate profit; it's going to create greater losses.
>>108744285Then show the numbers.Show the annual reports.Then you'll have a validated talking point.(Until someone comes along to rightfully state that those numbers can also be trivially cooked.)
>>108739892
>>108745172Imagine you had 100k to invest. Are you going to put it in commodities or AI bullshit?
>>108745505Finnish Hyperwar refugees knew this.>>108744906Okay, and?
>>108745172like an old person leaving their blinker on by mistake eventually making a left turn
>>108736649>applications for military use and civilian useI thought the whole point was to bait-and-switch to eventually use the data center infrastructure for blockchain CBDC linked to digital ID and social credit score, in order to fight anti-semitism?
>>108745576It's for analyzing surveillance input and fabricating crimes. You don't need blockchain for CBDC or social credit score.
>>108743723Just another case of shills being shills.It's actually another point in favour of there actually being a bubble - they're desperate to convey the mere appearance of success when in reality they're not. Kind of like the "useful splendor" that King Louis XVI was advised to indulge in to convince the world that France wasn't on the verge of bankruptcy.
