What will happen here?How does this escalate and end? Its the most obvious set piece of WW3 everyone knows it.
>>17982299>what will happenmost likely case, nothing, as much as chink like to saber rattle so long as Taiwan stays in a limbo of independent but never says it out loud the CCP will do nothing since they aren't losing out to much, and given the shitshow Russia is suffering in Ukraine despite having more ideal invasion conditions (flat country you border versues and island nation with unpredicatble weather) its pretty much a case of not worth it
taiwan has a de facto worldwide monopoly on semiconductor manufacturing, to wage war against them is basically mutual annihilation
>>17982299If the PRC really wanted it, a blockade is the most effective strategy at this point.Since the NIMBYs liberals shut down their nuclear program, they're extremely reliant on oil imports for energy. The KMT conservatives aren't any better, since a chunk of them would roll out the red carpet for the PRC. Half of them are anti-mainland PRCs and a rapidly shrinking minority since the anti-PRC are moving to the liberal parties that actually take anti-PRC stances. The other half is pro-business ties with PRC thinking strong economic ties be enough to stop an invasion or blockade (protip: it won't. See Hong Kong). the PLA Navy can implement a blockade, starve out Taiwan, and either Taiwan self-exits or surrenders.The real question is the US. SK and Japan would never intervene without US backing, so it's entirely on whether the US administration at time of crisis has the will to intervene.
>>17982299I really cannot foresee China actually invading it unless it can develop a semiconductor industry that can far outpace Taiwan’s. It is way too risky to do anything to do to it right now.
>What will happen here?Nothing. Any would-be war over that island would be a Pyrrhic victory for any side that "wins" and everyone with a brain knows this. Now get this offtopic /pol/shit thread out of here
>>17982299>Its the most obvious set piece of WW3 everyone knows it.That's Israel?
>>17982307How did this even happen? They just took 90% of the market whilst no one bothered to do anything about it?
>>17982312The US taxpayer will fund a airlift to bring supplies in if the gommies blockade them. It worked for Berlin all the way back in the late 40s.>Taiwan's a country, not a city. Do you have any idea how much it'll cost fly bring in that scale of supplies?American taxpayers love running deficits.
>>17982460Same reason any country gets outsourced labor, cheap working wages = cheaper products and higher profit margins for those that do the outsourcing. Taiwan and Japan were highly competitive in the 70s-90s to see who can develop the best semiconductor yields and in the end US companies ended up investing more into Taiwan, again, because they proved to be more profitable for them
>>17982465I don't doubt the US has the logistical abilities. The question is does the US have the political will to basically play a game of "Modern Day Cuban Missile Crisis". If some PLA Navy commissar decides to shoot down US drones or god-help-us-all a manned F-35, or they start buzzing our frigates and clip a conning tower killing US service members, it could lead to a hot war.And imagine the smell of the propo of every bot working overtime on the aglorithms. Tiktok would be a massive hotbed of non-interventionism.
>>17982299Taiwan is more likely together fucked over by the US or clinate change cauaing increased energy consumption. China would most likely lose a fat % of the infrastructure in any attempted invasion. >>17982460>whilst no one bothered to do anything about it?Thats how it always worked, East Asians find a niche and make the beat with what they have. Ex: Chinese solar panels are super cheap because the US among other states restricted Chinese imports (while failing to internally provide a close alternative in price) and Europe already bought so much. Thus Chinese exporters are selling panels to new markets which in turn led into boosting eletricity access in some areas while providing an option to counter rolling blackouts or inconsistent energy in others.
>>17982299Nothing. The CCP knows if they try anything it will be the end of their regime.
>>17982312>If the PRC really wanted it, a blockade is the most effective strategy at this point.What happens when the Taiwanese start firing missiles at the Chinese Navy?
>>17982299Taiwan has the lowest TFR in the world, china can literally outlast them, by 2070 they'll be begging for annexation
>>17982299One Nuke and Taiwan is BTFO.
if China is able to develop its own semi conductor industry within next 2-3 years, just like how they developed their own EV/Solar/Pharma industries then does Taiwan really matter?If Taiwan loses race to China in semiconductors and China can pump out semis for 50% of cost will Taiwan survive. This will be resolved by economic warfare not hotwar. Of course mutts can instigate an hot war anytime over Taiwan.
>>17983564You do know what MAD is?
>>17982299The US is adapting to the new multipolar world rather continue holding on to delusions, which means they will be unable to project power on the other side of the world.
>>17983593you’re brown
>>17983594Noone asked, timmystein.
>>17983593>multipolar world>the US will BEND to the economic engine that is South Africa!
>>17983601Its about US becoming more isolationist instead of paying mad money to be world police
>>17982299>go to history forum>ask people about the future
>>17983607Okay, but what's Bibi's take on this?
I think people are forgetting ITT that Taiwan's a fucking fortress that's had decades to prepare for this exact scenario with low-end casualties for the Chinese still being in the millions if they attempt to take the island, during a time where China's birthrate has collapsed and losing that many men of reproductive age would just accelerate their demographic issues even more. It's not going to happen, and if it does happen it'll be the most retarded thing China's done since Mao.
>>17983823Theres no need for an assault to take it, just blockade the island and bomb it nonstop until they surrender or starve to death
>>17983870You think they don't have fortified missile batteries designed specifically to target the Chinese navy and air force in that scenario, hell probably even civilian targets on mainland China itself to cause maximal chaos? They've had DECADES to consider all of the possibilities and have been progressively fortifying and continuously modernizing their armaments anon. China doesn't just one-strike cripple Taiwan instantly, China would suffer mass casualties no matter the scenario.
>>17982299>whatYELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL
>>17983792Probably likes it. Gives him a freer hand. Trump's attitude is that Israel is powerful and can do whatever. He likes that and isn't going to get in their way.
>>17983881China can always just nuke them
>>17983897retard
>>17983596>Noone asked, timmystein.
>>17983607>just let China, Russia and North Korea do whatever they want bro!No
>>17982460Market forces lead to natural monopolies. Semiconductor manufacturing has a high barrier to entry and a high minimum standard for quality. So getting into the industry is expensive and difficult. So rather than start your own semiconductor business you just do business with an existing one. The few semiconductor manufacturers that get all the business are able to invest further into their manufacturing process and scale it even larger, push the quality of their product higher, so it's even harder for newcomers to compete with them. in scale or quality. Now they also have decades of brand recognition + all the available expertise working for them.
>>17983912The only retard is you if you think taiwan or anyone else could do a thing about it
>>17983936retard
>>17983937k
>>17983897>Becomes an instant international pariah after nuking a country they ostensibly just want to reuinte withThat'd just be going full-retard.
>>17983971It's retarded for many reasons. People who think "muh nukes" is a feasible answer in realpolitik are all morons.
>>17983897>Bro just nuke a densely-populated country immediately next door to you containing land you want to actually own and that you've been claiming you want to reunite with, giving every country in the world a strong reason to immediately pull relations with you and giving the Americans the singular best piece of pro-war propaganda they've had since 9/11
>>17983971>>Becomes an instant international pariah>>17983997>giving every country in the worldOh no, the (((international community))) would be mad!
>>17984142china is not a pariah state
>>17984157Thats Putin
>>17984142Yes anon, using nukes on your neighbor wouldn't have genuine worldwide blowback at all. It'd just be the west, no other country would be concerned with the usage of nuclear weapons in warfare and none of China's immediate neighbors have any issues with China. It'd all be hunky dory.
>>17982299Nothing, because they produce every computer in the entire world so everyone except China has an incentive to preserve their independence.
>>17984142So... The real pariah state is U.S.?
>>17984142I refuse to believe that you're not just being obtuse if you really think only a small number of developed countries would have an issue with opening up the can of worms of using nukes in conventional warfare.
>>17984243What can worms? Do you think China's neighbors will build nuclear weapons? If they tried so much, they would also be attacked by our nuclear bombs.
>>17982299It's another Sicily. China VS America is Rome VS Carthage, where Carthage's tentacles barely reached around Sicily while it was culturally much closer to the Roman sphere.>>17982307Didn't the US build one in Texas? Russia has chip plants, just not many foreign buyers.
>>17984250Normalizing the use of nuclear weapons opens up the potential of people treating them without care or concern and potentially resulting in an incident that causes global thermonuclear war. They figured this shit out in the 50s almost immediately after the concept of MAD was conceived, which is why not a single nuclear-armed power has ever used nukes offensively. I hope for your own sake you're underage here.
>>17984286>has ever used nukes offensively.I should add as a caveat, after WWII, which the situation was significantly different because there were only two nuclear bombs in existence at the time.
>>17984257>Didn't the US build one in Texas?yes, but we've yet to see when apple, nvidia and pals choose magaconductors over tsmc and foxconn
Worst case scenario, a Chinese blockade leads to U.S. forces sinking PLAN ships.
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