What happens in the timeline where the US doesn't conquer Hawaii, and the Hawaiian royalty goes through with their plan to intermarry other Polynesian royalty to combine all of the islands into one country?
>>18252781They still get taken over by the UK.
>>18252781Japan would colonize them
America would still have military bases in Hawaii and elsewhere in the Pacific because there is realistically nothing they could do to stop it from happening.
>>18252781the developmental status of the islands, their meager economies, the resources required to administer such a state, and the distances involved would have made this country borderline ungovernable and really would only exist to the extent major naval powers would allow itmight be some best case scenarios where the country ingratiates itself to multiple powers and can play them against each other, with the powers generally propping up the country as a diplomatic tool against each other. maybe some foreign development experts and financial assistance come in and somehow they avoid identitarian conflict between ethnic groups while avoiding having to form a powerless confederation.
>>18252796either them or the Russians.
How?The Hawaiiian monarchy collapsed in 1893.Britain annexed New Zealand in 1840, France successively annexed bits and pieces of French Polynesia between 1842 and 1888, Chile annexed Easter Island in 1888, the Cook Islands became a British protectorate in 1888, Wallis and Futuna became a French protectorate in 1887, Tuvalu a British protectorate in 1892. Samoa was technically independent until 1900 but only because Germany, the United States and Britain couldn't come to an agreement on who should own it (Germany managed to freeze Britain out when Britain's international reputation hit rock bottom during the Boer war when Britain let 1/4 of the Boer population starve to death in concentration camps, and then came to an agreement with the US).By the time the monarchy collapsed, all of Polynesia except Hawaii and Samoa were already European colonies, and Samoa wasn't one only by a technicality.But okay. Let's say Hawaii starts this process from the very start of the Kingdom of Hawaii in 1795 onwards, and manages to rope a bunch of European or American whalers-cum-adventurers in to get to places, have some firearms and cannons. It uses the breathing space of the Napoleonic wars to rapidly expand across the pacific, essentially finishing by 1820 (places like New Zealand would be de jure under Hawaiian control, but de facto still be a bunch of warring tribes).Support from American whalers and missionaries keeps the French out. Britain rather less so, particularly in New Zealand. British support for local tribes ends in a rebellion that causes Hawaii to lose New Zealand by 1840 or so.The rest of the Hawaiian empire remains de jure independent until the American presence on the west coast gets established. By 1860, it's a protectorate.Since the involvement of American whalers (without which Hawaii simply won't be able to project meaningful force) led to an acceleration of Americans taking control, Japaneese mass migration to Hawaii never happens.
