KAT
>>18373960>timeline where Michael Collins winsActually incredibly easy to imagine.The National Army were already winning the Civil War when he died, and we know that plans were in place for Collins to meet with IRA leaders in Cork with the hopes of ending the fighting. Collins was probably the only man alive capable of truly uniting the IRA with the Dáil, so provided he doesn't get his shit blown clean off in 1922 then it's incredibly likely that he "wins.">A Collins lead Free StateThe Free State under Collins would have been much more capably of "Republicanising" from the inside; the lack of post-Collins atrocities in the Civil War allow for some level of unity to be retained within Sinn Féin. No retarded Catholic Constiution would come, and the economic decisions made later under Lemass would have come much sooner.>Northern Ireland?Nobody can really say, I guess. We know that Northern Ireland couldn't have been quite so sectarian if Collins won, because he held immense sway and was able to prevent early Unionist power-grabs. There's a chance that the lack of sectarian governance might allow the push for eventual unification, but who honestly knows. Probably get a long-term answer by WW2, I guess.>Better or Worse?Better, for sure.
>>18373960You mean, this one?
>>18374260He didn't win. He died, his efforts to influence Northern Ireland ended, his efforts to recover the IRA were ended, and a highly anglophilic anti-Republican regime took over and ruthlessly repressed their opposition.
>Collins instructed his men to attack at precisely 9 a.m. because according to him, "These whores, the British, have got to learn the Irish men can turn up on time"One of the greats
>>18373978>There's a chance that the lack of sectarian governance might allow the push for eventual unificationThe opposite. Without sectarian governance Catholics would have most likely learned to accept the union.
>>18373960I mean, he went to the moon. That's winning in my book.
This would have been the best outcome.
>>18374290>having to specifyLoooooooooooool
>>18374299Probably not. There was a huge issue post-partition with nationalist controlled councils refusing to engage with Stormont, and there were many instancees of local authorities/institutions/individuals simply acting as though they were either already or were soon to be joining the rest of Ireland. One of the main reasons Unionism was able to retain the land granted to NI was because of the outright collapse in the interference Collins was running against them.The "lack of sectarian governance" is not a happy-clappy future for NI, as the sectarian UUP would have still been around. Unionism in this scenario is massively weakened, while the Irish Free State's direct interest and involvement in NI continues. Important to remember that basically everyone at the time (including some leading Unionists, though at the time they'd avoid admitting it) believed that it was sort of inevitable that the two jurisdictions would eventually unite.With Collins in charge, this is an actual "compromise" version that Cumann na nGaedheal LARPed as having achieved; a united and independent Ireland which is obviously broadly aligned with the UK. >>18374352This outcome would have probably been the last until the 2nd half of the 20th Century were it not for Ulster Unionists.
>Ends the Civil War by convincing the IRA to stand down, with a not-very-subtle nod to the fact that they are not truly "going away">Boundary Commission no longer powerless against Unionists; heavy contention over majority nationalist areas>Proportional Representation stays in place in NI>Unionist power grab never happens; the two jurisdictions remain joined at the hip>Sinn Féin splits anyway; Sinn Féin stays, the conservatives split away to form their own thing with the Redmondites, remaining Unionists, and other conservatives to transform the Irish Centre Party into an opposition against Sinn Féin>Far left malds, similar to our timeline>Dáil Éireann is now Sinn Féin vs Irish Centre Party>Centre Party align loosely with Unionists; the worst of the UUP's sectarianism in the north no longer happens and democrtaic elections proceed as normal>The Unionist+Centre Party bloc poses a serious potential challenge to a Collins-lead Sinn Féin>Regardless, steps to Republicanise the Free State continue>1930s abdication crisis happens, same story; Free State captialises on this to strip away British influence from their politics>Ireland even more pro-allies in WW2; probably still won't formally join but will definitely help the UK with the explicit expectation that it will further the cause of unification>The mass of nationalist majority councils/constituencies double down on this; to deny them unification would be to incite mass unrest (remember; the UUP never got a chance to gerrymander/suppress them out of existence in this timeline)>Ireland unites sometime in the 1960s; common travel with the UK, all former NI citizens retain British citizenship. No real civil war or unrest because again, no Unionist power grab in this timeline>The moment Collins dies, the Centre Party (or other opposition) beat Sinn Féin and form a new government with the Unionists>Ireland follows Britain into the EU as usual
>>18375083Are you saying the south would have rejoined the union?
>>18375658No, I'm saying that the entire Irish revolution could have been avoided if not for Ulster Unionists.In 1910, the overwhelming majority of Irish voters were voting for Irish self-governance, not Irish independence. The idea of the "Irish Nation" was one which already existed but which was being denied proper government; secession was an extremely fringe movement and Republicanism had remained a very tiny minority of Irish Nationalist politics for around a century by this point, fuelled mostly by small uprisings or agitation amidst the diaspora abroad.The difficult problem of the "Irish Question" was solved-provided self government was restored; there had been mass movements calling for the Union to be repealed (but again, not British presence in Ireland itself) from the moment the Act of Union came into place, and from the 1870s onwards every election saw a landslide for pro Home-Rulers. The difficulty came when>Ulster Unionists threaten rebellion if Home Rule is implemented>Some within the British military hierarchy don't want to put down a rebellion of these Ulster people>For some reason the decision is made to coddle the Unionists instead of putting a firm end to this incredible mutiny by a minorityEvery time Britain sided with a Unionist minority in the northeast, they radiclaised and isolated the rest of the population. Even Patrick Pearse himself noted how ridiculous it was that the Ulster Volunteers had formed and armed themselves while Irish nationalists just sat on their thumbs. Every major gain made by fringe revolutionaries in early 1900s Ireland was built off the massive destabilisation of Irish politics caused by Ulster Unionism, and then by successive insanely bad decisions by Britain.There is a very solid argument to be made that had Home Rule been granted that none of this shit would ever have happened. Even Edward Carson cottoned on to this fact.
>>18375725>until the 2nd half of the 20th CenturyThis is implying that a reunification of the British Isles was possible until atleast the 1950s.
>>18375739>until the 2nd half of the 20th CenturyThis was referring to the fact that had the Irish Revolution been avoided, then yeah Ireland would probably have stayed in the UK for a much longer time. One can only assume it would have EVENTUALLY taken a Canda-style route to self governance, given that self-governance (and what form it should take) was the most dominant political question in Ireland from the 1780s onwards, and was something very capable of crossing religious lines. So in my view, its either>revolution avoided; Ireland remains permanently linked to the UK but goes Dominion->Independent sometime after WW2>revolution happens but civil war atrocities avoided; partition remains but the (widely anticipated) eventual reunification happens due Unionists in the northeast never getting the chance to close ranksOr our current situation, where nobody got what they wanted and everyone ended up celebrating over scraps.
>>18373964Fucking lol
>>18373960He did win. Ireland gained independence and Irish government forces won the civil war
>>18374352True
>>18373964Kek based cumraggers
>>18373960de Valera threw him under the bus when treaty time came. Collins was the real deal and may he rest in peace.
>>18377585>He did win. The Civil War transformed massively after his death, as did the political layout of the pro-Treaty side of the Civil War.What began as a "Civil" ended in a counter-revolution; Collins was very far from some lefty (the socialists believed they'd have to fight him+the IRA to get a socialist Republic) but his political ideas and plans were vastly different to those who succeeded him.Collins won the War of Independence, the Civil War was won by the very conservative faction of the Pro-Treaty camp. People do not like to admit this because it undermines the "victory" of the Irish revolution, but if you compare the policies Collins had and what he did regarding the north with what his successors in CNG did it becomes immediately noticeable.>>18377664Many believe this, yes. I think Dev's best work was when he was outside of Ireland, or when he was just "Mr Respectable Irish Statesman."Every time he got involved with the government or the war it was a net negative. Absolute snake.
>>18377805>Every time he got involved with the government or the war it was a net negative. Absolute snake.how so? Wasn't he the one who basically lead the anti-Treaty side?
>>18374352>Ireland>union jack
>>18375739>the British Isles
>>18378191The British Archipelago*
>>18378192>The British Archipelago
>>18378197>>18378191>>18378185kys taig
>>18378300>kys taig
>>18377815>how so?Dev was the ultimate "muh honorabru fighters" sort during the War of Independence. He had a (retarded) vision for big clashes between the Irish and the British in a romanticised mass rebellion like he'd read about in history books. He would regularly try to curtail the power that Collins had over the IRA, and disavowed their (very successful) guerrilla tactics.He was ignored, obviously, because he was basically demanding a massive convention army that didn't exist to somehow go toe to toe with an even bigger one which hadn't even shown up yet. The IRA listened to their leaders, and Dev simply wasn't one of them.>Wasn't he the one who basically lead the anti-Treaty sideNope, that was Liam Lynch; both he and Collins opposed any sort of prolonged civil war. Lynch was appointed Chief of Staff during the IRA's Convention in March 1922. Dev became the de-facto political leader of the Anti-Treaty movement, but this didn't give him any real sway over the IRA. Something like 75% of the IRA opposed the Treaty; most of it wasn't really affected by the "split" and instead simply continued following the orders of their superiors.Dev came in at the end of the conflict to tell them to "stand down", after Liam Lynch's successor (Aiken) had already done so.
>>18379227is there literally any way the IRA could have won the civil war?
>>18379596>could the IRA have won the civil warNo. Even the most deluded sinn féin sorts will never claim that the IRA could have won the Civil War, because they were completely fucked from the start. The main factors were;>Poorly armedThe IRA was already running on fumes by the time the truce arrived; the IRA by the Civil War was even worse in terms of access to weapons, while the National Army was being given quite literally an infinity arsenal from Britain. >DisorganisationThe removal of Collins from the helm lost the IRA its most valuable asset; the vast intelligence network that Collins and his supporters built and upheld.>No SupportPeople were tired of the instability, and extremely weary of more possible British atrocities in response to continued IRA activity. Remember, Britain had threatened massive and immediate military escalation of the Treaty wasn't accepted.So no, the IRA was fucked (even though at the start they were the larger force). The question isn't>could the IRA have won the Civil War?but instead>could the Civil War be stopped amicably?The answer to this is yes, certainly. It probably would have happened had Collins and Lynch not been killed; both were the most powerful men of either side, and both wanted an end to the conflict.The question of the IRA winning the Civil War is too fanciful even for alternate history enjoyers; it would have been such a stark and enormous pivot in Irish and British history that even speculation is difficult.
>>18379596No.
