>>63734575
>What's the most likely outcome?
You die of a waterborne ailment of some sort and reincarnate in India again.

>>63734575
idk Russia gets to keep Crimea, not maybe Lugansk and parts of Donetsk

>>63734575
Russia continues pushing until it is literally down to just new build tanks and shells, at which point the Ukies push them back into Russia
Russia will respond by spending the next decade or so firing the occasional volley of bottle rockets into a random Ukrainian city while claiming that this means they are still fighting and thus winning the war, they may even declare themselves the head of an "Axis of Resistance" against Ukraine in a bid to rally additional international support for their cause

>>63734575
>Crimea recognized as Russian
>everything else returned to Ukraine
It'll take a few more years and possible Putin's death but I think this is the endstate.

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>>63734575
Russian economic collapse followed by the disintegration of the front. Not even a meme. Russia refuses to budge on demanding regime change in Kiev as a pre-condition of negotiations, something Ukraine cannot legally do while the war is ongoing. It might be a year, it might be ten, and Russia will keep burning hundreds of men per square klik all the while, but settling for anything less puts Putin at very real risk of falling out of a window, so he's going to keep digging in search of daylight.

>>63734595
people forget that Putin came from the KGB. He's naturally paranoid. If he was going to get yeeted, it would have been done by now.

>>63734619
We saw how fragile the russian state is when Prigozhin had his little march on Moscow.

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>>63734590
What do you expect from here, and its impossible to answer anyway. Neither side can win a military victory as things stand.

Frozen conflict at the current borders is unlikely, it's unacceptable to everyone. I can honestly see further escalations from Russia in an attempt to break European support politically, the US is already isolated so there may never be a better time to do something against a NATO country and hope that there is not appetite to trigger article 5, effectively destroying the alliance. Europe is rearming so the window to do this is closing.
The original plan of a quick strike and installing and friendly government in Kiev would have been the groundwork for this but its failed completely. But instead of stopping and doing something else, they are now locked onto a course of action and have no way out. Even if they pulled out tomorrow, sanctions will take time to lift and the economy is utterly fucked. Returning soldiers will be pissed off, and Putin will be terrified of another Wagner style coup. At least with Wagner Prigozen could be threatened and persuaded to stop. Dozens of groups of soldiers going 1920s Germany won't be as easy to control

>>63734595
How recent is that webm?

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>>63734575
A stalemate +/- a few hundred square km's of land. Ukraine can only win with *extensive* support, they can, however, survive without the USA. That could still be considered victory, and that is IMO the worst case scenario.

>>63734575
russia's economy will collapse long before EU gibs end. There is no scenario where putin will win.
Sadly the war will continue for few more years but the latest German election and jailing of the French zigger whore sealed this end.

>>63734659
ultimately, russia lost within the first year of the war when causing a military and political defeat of ukraine became a pipe dream
now they are just following the imperial japanese playbook of hoping that enough of the enemy that they can negotiate to keep some of what they gained and pretend that they won

>>63734657
Note the tank, so... not. Apparently I saved it in July last year, so it's probably Chasiv Yar or somesuch.

>>63734649
A long term stalemate favours Ukraine simply because Russia is the aggressor here
If nothing else changes the Russians will eventually be forced to withdraw back into Russia, they cannot sustain an occupation force indefinitely even without the constant attrition from combat with Ukraine

>>63734575
Conflict freezes on more or less current lines with no meme oblast acquired in full and it becomes a forever war until something majors starts up someplace else next decade, possibly Taiwan, and things mix up a bit on a worldwide scale
Both Russia and Ukraine turn into failed states with Ukraine getting some gibs from EU and possibly some foreign reconstruction investments while staying forever barred from entering EU, and Russia turns to the east and effectively sells siberia to China to stay afloat and not collapse

>>63734588
>the Ukies push them back into Russia
Checked but this is wishful thinking. Ukraine is spent

>>63734575
> What's the most likely outcome?

Russia keeps what it has, as Ukraine can't take it back and the West is tired of paying for the attempts.

>>63734691
>>63734690
>>63734684
totally organic posting, right here

Complete extinction of ziggers by 2050

>>63734684
Anyone who thinks the conflict can freeze is retarded, in order to freeze it you have to WIN like russia did against Georgia. As long as Ukraine simply keeps fighting conflict can't be frozen.
>>63734691
You ziggers have been using this cope for years but EU support has only increased and pro ziggers keep losing elections

>>63734575
Russia is still fighting over villages 20km away from the 2014 front lines, they've wasted >800,000 men and over 100,000 of their more liberal minded, educated people have fled the country while they're forced to rely on North fucking Korea for shells and manpower, they can only produce a small amount of missiles and drones each month which are wasted in terror attacks on civilian infrastructure and even if they deliberately try to hit military targets the accuracy of their GLONASS guidance and intel is inadequate for targeting them in any meaningful way

>>63734575
The same thing that happens every time russians get into a war they cannot win. They keep fighting until their economy implodes or the population revolts, followed by a collapse of the front. Some chunks of the motherland might take the chance to break off into some Stan if they feel like it.

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>>63734708
This is the emotionally driven, memespeak I was talking about. You come across like a shrill woman. Say what you typed aloud, in front of a mirror.

>>63734708
>As long as Ukraine simply keeps fighting
Thay have stopped a long time ago. They are just firing back at the human waves. I keep seeing this nonsense that the moment that Russia stops pushing is the moment they get rolled back to Moscow as European tanks instantly break their lines but I don't see this happening ever. 2023 counteroffensive showed that Ukraine has no way to chase Russians away once they are dug in, and the situation has only got more dire for them now that US is Russia-aligned in all but name
I'll be giddy to he proven wrong but it will take a major, and I mean MAJOR fuck up from Russia's part for Ukraine to break their lines. Not even wagner coup was enough for their lines to weaken, and the best they can be said about the kursk incursion is that it was good enough of a distraction

>>63734723
fucking Mercader projection makes my dick so soft dude

>>63734723
He's right though, EU aid has only increased and is only going to increase further
both Ukraine and the EU are in this for the duration, which means the war will be decided by how much Russia is willing to lose before it gives up and pulls out
The way things are going right now, the answer to that question seems to be "everything"

>>63734727
>Thay have stopped a long time ago. They are just firing back at the human waves. I keep seeing this nonsense that the moment that Russia stops pushing is the moment they get rolled back to Moscow as European tanks instantly break their lines but I don't see this happening ever. 2023 counteroffensive showed that Ukraine has no way to chase Russians away once they are dug in, and the situation has only got more dire for them now that US is Russia-aligned in all but name
They will hold. Just because they arent suicidal like the zigger troops doesnt mean they arent combat effective. They are relying on limited support. So is russia, but they at least had a massive stockpile (HAD) that they could lean on. Now, noone can push, and it is simply about wearing the other down enough to encroach on their positions,

>>63734721
What about winter/continuation war? That seems the most likely outcome
>population revolts
Lmao! Not this generation of homo sovieticus

>>63734723
>nooo going against my zigger narrative is le meme speak

>>63734736
>They will hold
That i agree with. But they are not going on the offensive any time soon. By the time they can make their move in, idk, a decade or so, their land will have already been trashed and raped to such an extent that there will be no interest or point in even taking it back. Let's just gloss over all the horrible inhuman shit that the native population will have endured by that point, if they still ever exist

>>63734727
NTA. Instant is a strong word, but the key point is that if the Russians stop dead in their tracks, that takes a massive amount of pressure off of them. Even at the low rate of territorial gains, the sheer volume of low level attacks across the front has kept Ukraine constantly busy ensuring the line is supplied and manned, and that's placed severe constraints on their ability to set aside men and materiel for offensive operations. If Russia gives them the space to breathe, they'll be able to achieve the kind of overmatch we saw at Kherson and Kharkov again, and so Russia has to keep doing -something- to keep the pressure up.

>>63734727
You are still talking about the 2023 zaporizhia push like Ukraine hasn't invaded, occupied and then withdrawn from internationally recognised Russian territory multiple times since then
The Russians can't actually stop the Ukrainians from breaking their lines once they build up sufficient force, we've seen this play out multiple times since 2023
Once the Russians degrade enough that the Ukies are free to start concentrating serious force again they will break through again, there is no longer anything the Russians can do to stop it happening once sufficient force is available

>>63734619
internally its unlikely given that on top of that vatniks are natural apolitical cattle that take pride in their suffering

although ukranians might pull it off if Budanov and friends put themselves to the task. What is holding them back is western ass kveching of course. Imagine what agent orange would do if his boyfriend was acked by those fucking ukranians that refuse to follow his order to surrender

>>63734754
I could easily see a palace coup in Russias future but another revolution is unlikely for now given the aforementioned broad depoliticisation of the Russian polity
That said, Putin is currently attempting to repoliticise said polity in order to support the war so if he fucks that up then something really funny could happen

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>>63734746
>Even at the low rate of territorial gains, the sheer volume of low level attacks across the front has kept Ukraine constantly busy ensuring the line is supplied and manned, and that's placed severe constraints on their ability to set aside men and materiel for offensive operations.
Where are the Russians making extensive gains? As far as I know, they are STILL fighting over Donetsk airport, unless I am behind the loop.

>lets just gloss over all the horrible inhuman shit that the native population will have endured by that point, if they still ever exist

Kek, Ukrainian as a nationality survived a holocaust tier forced starvation and you think 10 or so years will break the population? I doubt any Ukrainian citizen will want to give up seeing just how much Russia is willing to show its ass. They are weak, and cant project power like Ukraine (despite supposedly possessing similar if not superior weapons, kek).

>>63734760
You are behind the loop, the Russians have advanced nearly twenty full kilometres west since the Battle of Donetsk Airport (2014)

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>>63734760
Yet they haven't. The puccians keep slamming their heads against a wall. I'll see you next year pidor repeating the same script

russia got all of it's tanks destroyed so no general can replicate prigo's march to moscow.

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>>63734575

Putin gets coup'd by the oligarchs when facing down the barrel of economic collapse (and likely civil war) and whoever replaces him agrees to status quo ante bellum in exchange for the US & Friends dropping sanctions and Ukraine agreeing to cede Crimea. Everyone makes a gentleman's agreement to just pin the blame for everything on him and a handful of members of his inner circle.

Alternatively Putin gets assassinated (or simply dies from being in absolutely terrible health) and you get a similar result, but far more chaotic

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>>63734765
>twenty full kilometres

>>63734619
People also forget that he’s 72 years old. It’s only natural that eventually he would get pushed out.

Personally I’m not really sure how the war will end up as far as territory, but I am sure of a few things on a ~10 year timeline
1. Russias economy will collapse, at this point the war might be the only thing keeping it going
2.their influence will be basically zero for a while again, you already see this with Armenia, Syria, but there will be a chance for countries like Georgia, the stans, and Belarus to distance themselves like the western Warsaw Pact did after the USSR collapsed
3. Ukraine (perhaps minus some territory) will be in the EU, and NATO, they won’t be the only ones to join
4.the recovery from this economic crisis will be longer lasting than the 90s


For Ukraine, what happens in Ukraine is of course everything right now, but for Russia, the war could end tomorrow with them controlling everything they have claimed and it wouldn’t really do anything to help them avoid this situation. Also, over this 10 year timeline 72 year old Putin is probably going to die, not sure how much chaos that will bring in comparison to everything else going on

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>>63734760
>Where are the Russians making extensive gains?
Zigger-tier reading comprehension. The point is that keeping the gains from being extensive is exceptionally logistically taxing, and that heavily limits how much the Ukies can build up for their own offensive actions.

>>63734771
if economy collapses russia is not going to keep Crimea, at most there'll be real referendum that they'll lose

>>63734737
>What about winter/continuation war?
Unlikely, since that would require Ukranians to first redact their constitution, and second but most importantly simply give up to a foreign power that has sought to exterminate them as a culture for the last couple of centuries under different guises and different flags. Even if for some bizarre reason, the AFU collapsed overnight as a whole, armed resistance would continue, as it has in occupied zones. But let's continue with this train of thought for the sake of argument. Even, if the entirety of Ukraine was occupied, the costs of sustaining a long term occupation force would eventually lead to an economic implosion. The same that happened in Afghanistan would happen, just with more explosions, due to the quaint little fact that Ukraine is mainly an agroexporter economy, making ammonium-nitrate abundant.
>Not this generation of homo sovieticus
No population remains idle under the privations of a fully mobilized war economy while being under an international embargo, and even if they weren't, let's say all sanctions get lifted because Trump said so, no economy can't sustain the sheer level of stress an industrial war demands for long, let alone indefinitely. Krauts found out that the hard way during WW1 and WW2. Even the world hegemon, with the largest economy in the planet couldn't stay in Afghanistan forever. Something always gives, and eventually breaks. It wouldn't be the first, nor the second, or even third time Russia has collapsed in recent history.

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>>63734765

>>63734595
>>63734619
>>63734639
Pretty much this. Putin is the glue holding the Russian society together. He has expertly made a system over the last 20+ years where his generals, oligarchs, security apparatus etc. Are well balanced against each other and where no-one and no faction is strong enough alone to challenge him. This is good as long as Putin lives however if he gets sick, is incapacitated or dies then there is no heir apparent. If this happens there will at best be a major power struggle + purge internally or at worst a civil war.

The chances of a civil war happening is higher if the war in Ukraine is ongoing and unresolved as you would have soldiers under arms at the frontline who at any moment can be recruited by a general to march on Moscow if Putin ACKs! Imagine how Roman generals did the same during the Roman empire.

Ukraine's best shot is to postpone this as long as possible, improve their defences and entrench western support.

>>63734575
Unless Jewlenskyy agrees to a peace treaty where Ukraine hands over Crimea and the 4 occupied provinces, Russia would probably just continue the war until Ukraine as a state collapses. Anyone who thinks that Ukraine isn't badly losing the war is completely delusional.

>>63734770
Not to worry anon, Putin reserved and maintains a stash of high end armour and artillery just for the Rosvgardia, presumably as a hedge against future mutinies
Now obviously these are Putins boys and will not be turning on him anytime soon, but weapons are loyal to whoever pulls the trigger and there is no guarantee Putins royal guard will be able to hold on to all its toys in a crisis

Does Ukraine even want Crimea back at this point? Getting your clay back is great, but it's full of disgusting Russians at this point

>>63734776
Guy anon was replying to here, yeah it's going to be fucking chaos when Putin goes. There's no clean chain of succession, and the inner circle is a pile of people that hate each other held together by loyalty to Putin personally. Russia in the 90s was already a giant fucking headache for the US and Europe to deal with, and things are shaping up to get even worse.

>>63734776
>over this 10 year timeline 72 year old Putin is probably going to die
This is Putins last war and he knows it, that's a part of why he's so willing to commit

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>>63734759
only real palace coup I could see is only if monke is successfully killed. Right now he is the undisputed god-tzar that survived both prigozhin and successfully made america kneel in front of him in subservience. The revival of neo stalinism is not a coincidence as they are drawing direct parallels between the manlet and the old red butcher

In that the next tzar will have his hands full trying to secure all of the assets for his friends, family and relatives. Ending the war in exchange for lifting of european sanctions to get the money flowing again would be top priority. as he would want to leech off his host for years to come, not grind it to pieces trying to resurrect some dead and gone empires for his ego trip

>>63734793
>If this happens there will at best be a major power struggle + purge internally or at worst a civil war.
Wishful thinking. As soon as Putin dies, his second in command takes over with the full backing of the Russian military. You're delusional if you think Putin hasn't removed any potential usurpers from the Russian military since Pringle's failed coup.

>>63734799
>at this point
Crimea has been majority Russian for at least 300 years.

Supposedly russia is massing again but I
don’t know if anything will happen. it does feel like both sides are in a precarious position.

I think pokrovsk will decide the war, but it’s seemingly stalemated at the moment but I think russia keeps pushing if they can get it

>>63734799
>Does Ukraine even want Crimea back at this point?
it's a cornerstone of their nationalism

>>63734799
>but it's full of disgusting Russians at this point
there's a solution to that
>but muh crimes against humanity
Good thing we live in Putins multipolar world now and not that degenerate "rules based international order" he was always complaining about

>>63734805
> Ending the war in exchange for lifting of european sanctions to get the money flowing again would be top priority.
The Russian economy grew 5% year on year since 2023. Sanctions will not persuade Putin or anyone who succeeds him to end the war.

>>63734809
> both sides are in a precarious position.
More wishful thinking. This war has one clear side who's winning, and it isn't Ukraine.

>>63734776
>NATO
Won't exist in two years top

>>63734825
>This war has one clear side who's winning
Explain your reasoning

>>63734825
I wouldn’t say that’s clear at all at this point

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>>63734825
Does this look like the winning team to you, anon?

>>63734822
>muh GDP growth
20% interest rates, 8% inflation and a 30% increase in government spending year-over-year are not a sign of a healthy economy, retard-kun.

>>63734805
>Ending the war in exchange for lifting of european sanctions to get the money flowing again would be top priorit
I agree that this is a powerful incentive structure and would be at the forefront of any future Tsars mind, but you need to consider the political consequences of ending the war as well as the economic ones.
There is a powerful, extremely radical pro war faction holding (insofar as it is possible to tell in russian politics) a majority of what you might call 'influence' or 'gravitas' within putins government, and upon which he depends as a counterweight to the more economically minded oligarchs. This is a difficult position for putin because he has to balance the pro war radicals who want him replaced with a more aggressive leader and the oligarchs who just want to go back to the Russia where Putins only job was refereeing disputes between them
When Putin dies, the new Tsar will immediately find himself in the same position, forced to balance between these two competing factions in order to avoid one or the other becoming powerful enough to overthrow him and this will in turn force him to continue the war at least until the pro war radicals can be dealt with in a way that does not leave him vulnerable to the Oligarchs

>>63734723
This image is completely, unapologetically false. It's not even pretending to be accurate. I can only assume it was an unrelated infographic before someone replaced the legend.

>>63734779
this. people saying that russia might keep crimea in case russian state collapses is basically the same as saying germany is going to keep france even if they lose the war.

>>63734806
Okay cool I am gonna assume you are not trolling. Who is the second in command? He has removed any usurpers against HIS rule and his regine but if he is dead then all that shit is thrown out the window. We had this same shit happen when Stalin died.

>>63734806
There's no list of 'potential usurpers', everyone in a position of power is a potential usurper.

>>63734829
The funny thing is that if the 2022 invasion hadn’t happened you’d be right.

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>>63734858
so I'm guessing you live in a shithole, correct?

>>63734853
>>63734805
It goes beyond that. He simply can't. The economy is fully mobilized into a war economy and operating at the very limits of its capacity while already slowing down. The moment the economy switches from a war footing recession will follow as government spending is cut and salaries (which are being propped up by state-owned companies desperately hunting for any workers they can find to meet state mandated quotas,something which is already causing inflation) will plummet.

>>63734759
Are you part of a very beautiful community?
t.vlad vexler watcher
(wishing that nigga well)

>>63734876
Ukraine is backed by the EU, whose collective economic might is something like 150 times that of Russia
Russia, fighting without the luxury of effectively infinite money, is therefore in a much direr financial position

>>63734876
>russia being denied essential wartime material and being forced to buy north korean to make up the shortfall is proof that the sanctions failed

>>63734884
Thats certainly where I got the information from, but I don't think I can call myself a beautiful person in good faith, I'm too cynical for that

>>63734876
Yeah, the eternal folly of sensationalist reporting is that they assume people are just going to sit back and let things fall apart. Russia has successfully kicked the can down the road for 3 years, but its also getting bigger every step of the way, and sooner or later its going to blow. Maybe it would have blown already if they'd opened with numbers 2-18 at the start, but for some reason, nobody's eager to go hunting down black market nukes again, so they're hoping they can get Putin to see sense before Russia implodes.
>Ukraine’s economy is in a much worse state
Ukraine's government budget is subsidized in near-totality by very generous loans long-term from frozen Russian assets, they're doing well enough.

>>63734876
>Ukraine’s economy is in a much worse state
proof?

>>63734881
Don't fucking remind me about what Berlin degenerated into, but yes, it's very much a shithole now.
That has nothing to do with your fake ass water chart. The IQ chart I'm not going to look into because I don't know and I don't care, but I do know about water quality you retard.

>>63734876
Imagine your economy collapsing so hard you have to compare it to Ukraine instead of the EU

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so far in this thread, I understand that both russia and ukraine are winning, correct?

>>63734891
Why didn’t that happen in the first few dozen sanctions packages? Will the 18th sanctions package be the final, most severe one, or will we be talking about a 30th sanctions package in 2 months time?
>>63734890
How much aid is the EU sending to Ukraine? How much more aid is it willing to send Ukraine, while trying to massively ramp up their own militaries?

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>>63734876
Does this look like something a healthy economy would field?

>>63734903
No, you are just retarded.

>>63734894
>nobody's eager to go hunting down black market nukes again, so they're hoping they can get Putin to see sense before Russia implodes.
This right here is some fucking bullshit is what it is
Maybe that reasoning made sense back in '22 but at this point it ought to be clear to everyone involved that needing to hunt down more black market nukes is something that will happen one way or another so we may as well bite the bullet and get it over with now

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>>63734899
the IQ map is essential to the understanding of the untermensch question

>>63734906
>s-sanction d-don't work
boring, get new material

>>63734903
Both sides are losing
Russia is currently losing faster

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>>63734903
Genuinely not the worst assessment. Ziggers are pointing to the fact that Russia is still advancing, no matter how marginal those gains may be, and call it winning. People with functioning frontal cortexes point to the lack of ends to the war that don't wind up horrible for Russia and calling it winning,

>>63734684
>>63734727
This. Ukies need to get into some NATO lite hunker down and wait until Russian state inevitable collapses. Then take back Crimmea, Zaporozhia and/or Donbas.
It's absolutely unwise to push back agianst Russian lines prior to that. Unlees Ukies find some way to achieve SEAD or are able to use only UGVs or something. Land is useless withou people and they can't afford to grind thir men in some fucked up urban combat.

>>63734912
They worked so much the EU had to have 18 packages of them, right?

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>>63734908
so who winning?

>>63734903
russia has already lost in their original goal of causing a capitulation of the ukranian government and installing a puppet regime, the failure of the kiev front means that for the forseeable future they cant actually exert that level of control over the ukranians
what the russians are doing now is just trying to keep the land they have already taken so that they can come out of this war without looking like a total loser

now, the reason ukraine keeps fighting is because they want as little of their land to be russian as possible when this war ends

>>63734921
Ukraine as you'd know if you read the thread, retard-chan.

>>63734906
~150 billion sent so far, with another ~50 billion already committed through to 2027
Of the delivered sum, the bulk has been financial and budgetary support and in humanitarian and emergency assistance, with around 50-60 billion of the total counted as direct military funding

>>63734916
The thing is, continued support hinges purely on good optics because it is a matter of politics so Ukraine needs to do something flashy every once in a while or interest wanes and with it, support. If it was up to most politicians they'd have washed off their hands off the matter.

>>63734918
They work well so doing even more of them is even better, are you retarded?

>>63734910
IQ is a cope with only limited scientific value
The only people who take it seriously are people who also tend to score poorly

>>63734927
$60 billion in military aid throughout 3 years is far too little, Russia spends $150 billion on its military every year, so nearly half a trillion dollars since the war began.

>>63734918
>cut off 50% of russian hydro carbon exports
>they find a work around for 10% of the lost volume
>new sanctions to close those 10%
>new workaround for 10% of the now again closed export
rinse and repeat
it being the 18th sanctions doesn't unfuck the russian hydro carbon industry

>>63734918
Yes. Because you need to adjust them as Ziggers try to circumvent them.
They try to evade them so hard because they don't actually mind them at all. :^)

>>63734928
Its a nasty position to be in and no mistake, but if you told me I had to become a citizen of either Ukraine or Russia right now I would pick Ukraine 10 times out of 10 even if it meant joining the army
ESPECIALLY if it meant joining the army

>>63734933
seeing that russia is completely unable to advance I'd say 60 billion is enough

>>63734930
Do you understand how sanctions work? Instead of sending out a dozen and a half sanctions packages, why don’t you just sanction Russia’s entire economy in one sanctions package? The fact that you agree that there will be more sanctions packages in the future means that there are some aspects of Russia’s economy that haven’t been sanctioned in the 18th package. Why is that?

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>>63734822
>civilian economy retracts by 40%
>mil industry "grows" 45%
>URRRAAA. economy grow 5%!
war economy sugar high is fake as fuck. this year its projected to be exactly zero as reality comes crashing in. any tzar looking ahead for years to come knows this shit is on borrowed time and in no way or shape sustainable. Cattle might not care but the tzar and his boyars (oligarchs) wanting the good life most certainly do

>>63734935
>>63734934
How are they adjusting them, by sanctioning third-party sanctions?

>>63734882
>He simply can't
yes monke cant. That is why killing him and scapegoating his body is the way out of this

>>63734941
>Do you understand how sanctions work
do you?
you seem to not grasp that the sanctions have absolutely forced russia to scramble for replacement components for things they can no longer buy

the entire reason why they have been forced to beg north korea for aid is because they are no longer able to buy shells or shell components from anyone else

>>63734933
>spends $150 billion on its military every year
>still can't get shit done
and how does this make russia strong?

>>63734941
if sanctions don't work why are you crying about them so hard?
19th package is being prepared as we speak btw

>>63734939
You haven’t been paying attention to the news lately, have you? Russia now has a foothold in Sumy Oblast, and the Russian military is preparing for a summer offensive in Kherson.

>>63734941
>why don’t you just sanction Russia’s entire economy in one sanctions package?
The plan is to ratchet up the pressure one package at a time until Putin sees reason and backs out of the war
You and I both know that this is never going to happen and that sanctions should therefore have been all out from day one, but we have to wait for the suits up top to figure this out before it can actually happen

>>63734951
Is Russia crying about sanctions? Do you really think that there’s a diplomat in Russia who still anticipates the flow of trade between Europe and Russia?

>>63734575
Russia annexes a token amount of garbage land to call their war a victory, and then there are non-war border clashes until the next war breaks out in 5-10 years.

>>63734853
monke can jail or assassinate any single individual he wants. Their assets would be confiscated to be handed out to the next loyalist the same way aristocracy received fiefdoms and estates as rewards. only reason extremists like patrushev are still in the picture is he wants them there as monke himself is also an aggressive gopnik radical

>>63734952
russias last summer offensive is still ongoing and failed to achieve anything, so what's the next one that's even more poorly equipped going to achieve other than even more dead russians

>>63734776
>1. Russias economy will collapse, at this point the war might be the only thing keeping it going
True but the trick is never stopping the war. In case Ukraine eventually gets resolved in any way you just invade some other small country on your border. Rinse and repeat.

>>63734953
> You and I both know that this is never going to happen and that sanctions should therefore have been all out from day one, but we have to wait for the suits up top to figure this out before it can actually happen
If the EU suits can’t figure a simple truth that anons like you and I understand, that sanctions won’t force Putin to back down, are those EU suits really competent enough to lead the EU?

>>63734948
apparently they're getting a lot of chemicals and feedstock from China, but this is severely bottlenecked by limited manufacturing capacity within Russia itself, which has only gotten worse as the war has eaten away at the available labour pool

>>63734954
yes they are and so are you, enjoy your eternal poverty

>>63734936
A sensible choice, the likelihood of being anally raped is infinitesimally smaller.

>>63734945
going after the shadow fleet, going after loopholes that where exploited to get civilian products for military uses, putting pressure on new parts of the economy or putting more pressure on existing parts, going after more people involved in the regime/the war effort ect. ect. ect.

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>>63734931
no

>>63734959
> russias last summer offensive is still ongoing and failed to achieve anything
The Ukrainian military has been completely pushed out of Luhansk and Donbass, these are the most heavily fortified regions of Ukraine which the Ukrainian military has spent more than 10 years building up.

>>63734963
>In case Ukraine eventually gets resolved in any way you just invade some other small country on your border
They're running out of those, hence the crying about muh HATO expansion. The Baltics go straight to Article 5, and North Korea is one of their major munitions suppliers now. That leaves them with, what, Armenia and Kazakhstan?

>>63734958
>monke can jail or assassinate any single individual he wants.
This might seem to be the case, but it is not actually true
Putin is a frail old man who cannot overpower an oligarch security team or a group of street protestors on his own - He is dependent on enforcers for that and many of his best enforcers are part of the pro war faction.

>>63734973
> going after the shadow fleet
How’s that going to happen now that Russia will send military escorts to guard the shadow fleet?

>>63734575
Russia receives US land-lease by the end of 2025 and wraps up its SMO by summer the year after.

>>63734976
now you are just inventing fantasy scenarios in your head

>>63734649
>the US is already isolated so there may never be a better time to do something against a NATO country and hope that there is not appetite to trigger article 5, effectively destroying the alliance. Europe is rearming so the window to do this is closing.
This. The only question is where do they try it. My bet is still on Baltics. It makes no sense to attack sprawling forested Finland not even talking about some silly attempt at taking over Gotland. Baltics are small and filled with zigger diaspora so they could count on some fifth columnists.

>>63734954
nigger if you ask a russian if he wants russian any thing or European anything he'll go with the European product.
russian domestic production isn't just shit in terms of not producing enough, it's all whit quality.
russians now pay more for their daily needs and get worse products in return.
do you think that keeping butter in anti-theft boxes is an indication of a booming economy unbothered by sanctions?

>>63734967
Petty insults aren’t an argument

>>63734982
Pray they're dumb enough to start shooting.
https://youtu.be/EKRkAEjjhpE

>>63734965
They're cowards, that's the problem
They want to believe that Putin can be reasoned with because that's not as scary as dealing with a rabid, nuclear armed chimpanzee
It will take time for them to come around because of this, but they will figure it out eventually

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>>63734909
buying out the rogue nukes from the failed puzzian state is vastly more preferable then letting them shit out the place for years upon years just creating a perma rot on europes eastern border.

nooks are less of a hassle to deal with then mafia run human cancer

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>>63734987
>now you are just inventing fantasy scenarios in your head

>>63734992
I'm not arguing with you I'm laughing at you, crying about sanctions won't lift them

>>63734965
they aren't meant to make putin give up
it's meant to squeeze the life blood out of the russian economy so it's gimped not just for the near future but for decades to come

>>63734946
He's more likely to simply die of old age or the stress of being at the helm of a dingy pinning for the rapids without a lifejacket finally does him in. With how paranoid he is (for justifiable reasons) I doubt he'd let someone get close enough to him for the coup d' grace, specially after Prigo's misadventure a few years back.

>>63734998
Who’s crying about sanctions?
>>63734999
Will that in any way help defend Ukraine?

>>63734997
is that picture from 2023, 2024 or 2025?
couldn't tell as russia hasn't advanced in years

>>63734575
Russia gets all the 4 oblasts + crimea. No NATO membership for Ukraine, /k/ losses its creditbility as a information provider.

>>63734982
Ukraine defeated the black sea fleet without a navy
The scandis/balts have actual warships and fast jets and shit, they'll be fine

>>63735005
So you’re saying Russia pushed the Ukrainian military out of Luhansk and Donbass in 2023?

>>63735006
and how will this zigger wet dream come to pass?

>>63735007
> The scandis/balts have actual warships and fast jets and shit, they'll be fine
If they’re going to start attacking Russian ships, it will start WW3.

>>63734575
Same as with all wars of attrition, the side with an overwhelming advantage in industry, material and resources prevails, while the side at the disadvantage eventually collapses, capitulates and submits. In a situation where a loser refuses to capitualte and submit, his defeat becomes total and the winner's maximum objectives are achieved.

Then the "stab in the back" narrative has to be conjured up by the losers to explain the outcome which was self evident from beginning. If only the loser was supported harder and provided more, if only we pushed the winner just a bit more, that kind of sunken cost fallacy. You can already see it being pushed by the media, think tanks, talking heads and the echo chambers. This alone should tell the trajectory of this conflict - and the next one after it because the losers aren't likely to learn anything

>>63735006
That automatically leads to EU dissolution. No eastern european state would risk becoming the next target so they'll have no choice but to return to the Russian sphere of influence.

>>63734997
Your pic is literally showing that the Ukrainian forces were not pushed out of Donetsk and Luhanks.

Are you retarded by any chance?

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>>63734954
I could see Krauts crawling back. Never trust a Germ.

West economic collapse cannot help Ukraien without being toppled by european people so Russia win.

"Pro russian" parties elected and the logical europe-russia alliance finally happen. Zognald scream.

>>63735008
so you are saying russia hasn't advanced in 3 years?
why do you ziggers always go for this retarded "so you are saying" lingo, it sounds extremely retarded in English.

>>63734982
>hey get out of our waters or we will board ship flagged in nation of convience
>net
>okay we start boarding
>russians shoot a NATO military vessel
I pray to God the russians will
no ships need maintenance, fuel, insurance and a thousand other little things.
russia makes or provides 0 of those. It used to get all of that from Europe and due to the nature of the sanctions if any company in a third party provided them to those ships they get bared from the European market and the European market is sever dozen times bigger than the russian

>>63735011
Russia doesn't have the strength for another ground war in Europe they cant even secure their own borders against Ukraine

>>63735014
my mistake.

>>63735011
They're not. They're going to be interdicting smuggling ships not registered in Russia nor owned by a Russian company. If Russian warships want to start shooting at foreign sailors over that, it will start WW3.

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>>63735014
The padjeet can only post propaganda and scripts. It's not paid to pay attention

>>63735011
war against russia would not be a ww3, it would be a regional war that russia loses badly

>>63735018
yet pro zigger parties keep losing all the EU elections

>>63735020
>>63735021
>>63735023
>>63735027
Why did Estonia not seize that Russian shadow fleet ship last week when Russia sent a fighter jet to defend it?

>>63735033
Getting within the margin of error against established regimes is not losing. Mark my words within the next 2 years most of europe will be pro-Russia.

>>63735013
>That automatically leads to EU dissolution
no if anything it leads to much much more EU integration
it's the east that is slowing down EU integration
the moment it's a choice between full on federated states of Europe EU or becoming ziggers bitch boy then it's full on federated states of Europe EU and all the gay pride parades that means

>>63735038
They escorted it back to Koenigsburg instead

>>63735038
We, the collectibe West, have to play by the international rules we put down while Russia doesnt have to.

>>63735033
>Overturn the results of an election based on “tiktok misinformation”
>Arrest the winning candidate on bogus charges for a couple of months, then release him, ban him from running in that election
>Your pro-EU candidate wins the second elections
How democratic

>>63735040
and where exactly did this happen?

>>63735038
Because it was new and strange the first time, and the coast guard ship they used had no means of defending itself from aircraft. Next time, it'll be a destroyer.

>>63734807
lol
lmao

>>63734799
They need it simply to deny it to Russians. Also territorial waters filled with oil and gas.

>>63735043
Delusional. The EU is a failed project it has no future.

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>>63734980
all of his so called oligarchs (boyars) are all hand selected by him and vast majority of them consist of his life long friends like pic related (Sergei Chemezov). They get their wealth from having the state allow them to keep their assets. Unlike america money does not buy you power, power grants you money

the boyars of the 90s are long gone and breaking of their resistance was symbolized with imprisoning and confiscating Khodorkovsky. all that matters in russia is having raw power in the form of violence. Which is currently firmly in the hands of KGB and the so called wider siloviki of which the more extremist imperialist wing is lead by putin

>>63735040
I can safely assume from this post that you do not live in a democracy lmao

>>63735045
So Russia’s shadow fleet will continue operating unimpeded.

>>63735046
>break laws
>get arrested
yes, that's how it works in real countries. You don't get a free pass to commit treason just because you are a politician

>>63735040
>2 more years

Lmao if anything Europe will be Pro-Europe and tell both US, Chinks and Vatnigs to fuck off. We are already seeing this in the resurgence of our military industry.

>>63735052
Prigozhin was a trusted friend of Putin also

>>63735055
What laws did he break?
Why hasn’t he been prosecuted over allegedly breaking said laws?

>>63734822
>The Russian economy grew 5% year on year since 2023. Sanctions will not persuade Putin or anyone who succeeds him to end the war.
Dude, that it only grew 5% while they increased military spending tremendously is a sign that all other branches of industry contracted
And the real picture is even worse because banks are forced to give a lot of credits to defense companies which sell the gear to the army for state mandated prices

>>63735054
Don't worry, they will stray into someones territorial waters eventually, lake NATO is a crowded place...

>>63734727
The 2023 offensive showed that it is in fact impossible to break through km thick minefields against an enemy that has enough artillery at the front when you lack air superiority to suppress that artillery. Ukraine realized that rather quickly, all things considered, and withdrew in good order rather than simply grinding their forces against it until they couldn't anymore. A point is being approached where the russians simply don't have enough barrels to defend the entire front, at which point even if it takes literal months Ukraine can supress local fires long enough to get through the mines in a dozen places, widen the corridors, and get into the rear.
>but why haven't they
Because that would require a rather significant concentration of force and the russians know this. That's part of the reason for the continuous meat waves. It keeps Ukranian forces fixed in place. Remember it wasn't until the norks got pissed off at being pointlessly sent to their death by the retards in the russian COC and just went and did it themselves that kursk got retaken. Unless russia is willing to embrace Juche and become the largest province of the DPRK, I highly doubt Kim will send enough forces to actually break the lines.
>but russia continues to gain ground
At the current rate of advance russia will have sent every male able to walk to their death before they manage to conquer ukraine.
>But the Ukrainians will break with the fall of Toretsk/Avdiika/Pisky
We've heard it a hundred times, and they simply fall back to the next good defensive position, which at this point is probably the next hill behind them. Russia will throw everything it has left at it, suffer three times the casualties than the pre-war population, eventually gain control of a pile of rubble, run out of steam after 10-20km, and spend months regenerating those forces to try again.

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>>63734575
this war has hilariously reminded the entire planet how much russia always fucking sucked at waging wars, their china-tier manpower losses are a cherry on top of the "russia fucking sucks" cake.

>>63735054
Pretty much. As long as there are people here who have no morals and who want to make a quick buck it will be a problem. Ideally they should be publicly named and their home addressed shared.

>>63735040
you are confusing protest parties with pro zigger-ism
people aren't happy with the established order, like that's anything new. But that doesn't mean they want to become a russian vassal state.
non of those elections had the war in Ukraine as their main topic. If it was those candidates would have gotten crushed because support for Ukraine is 60% and up across all of Europe being the lowest the further west you go not the further east.

>>63735060
tell me which country and person you are talking about and I'll let you know

>>63735060
clearly the constitutional court of Romania thinks he broke the law so that's good enough for me, I don't much care what some zigger like you thinks about it

>>63735056
>tell both US, Chinks and Vatnigs to fuck off
You have no military, you have no actual economy, and most of the people living under your regime want out. You are lucky they are only voting for the alt-right parties right now.

>>63735051
>delusion
lol, lmao even

>>63735064
>that kursk got retaken
That was because of trump cutting off satellite intel, the norks had nothing to do with it

>>63734822
>The Russian economy grew 5% year on year since 2023
Not this shit again ffs. Burning money (quite literally) is not good for economy even tough RT might say otherwise. It's even worse. That pile of burned roubles did not come form the state treasury. No, private banks were forced at gunpoint to lend their money to Russian MIC. And they are never getting their money back.

>>63734990
given how their entire military is tied down in ukraine right now maximum they could do now is raids like trying to bum rush suwalki or trying to steal narva. this is something the locals and poles can fully deal with themselves and if they cant because of inferiority complex or what not then frankly why should the westerners care

>>63735070
Court with no legitimacy.

>>63735051
EU is a natural process of europeans getting closer after WW2 almost wiped them out + white becoming a minority due to demographic processes in turd world. The elites are just retarded by too much years of peace.

There will be some kind of inner revolution and it will be remade better.

>>63735070
Which law? Name the law if he broke it. When will his trial begin?
>>63735069
Romania, Georgescu

>>63735071
actually delusional, the EU has more men under arms right now that the USA and not even Hungary wants to leave after seeing what happened to the UK

>>63735003
>Will that in any way help defend Ukraine?
Yes, soldiers at the bare minimum need water, food, weapons and bullets. If you're feeling generous you can dote them with APCs, IFVs, MBTs, MANPADS, Artillery support, CAS, medvac, helmets, plate carriers, utility vehicles, specialty vehicles, radios, encrypted radios, 3G, 4G and 5G poles or fiber optic to maintain drone coverage, EW systems to deny the enemy drone coverage, bandages, antibiotics, pesticides, antiseptics, tourniquets, stretchers, ambulances, trucks to deliver said things, fuel to make those things move, warehouses to store them and factories to produce them.

All that costs money, and by putting the squeeze on the source of that money, it helps Ukraine.

>>63735086
Georgescu was not pro russia.
Current EUtards elites deem everyone not pro them is pro russia, and push it in their media, but its not the case.

>>63735083
Clearly it had legitimacy in Romania as their ruling was accepted and enforced, no one cares about legitimacy in the eys of ziggers.

>>63734575
balkanization of Ukraine.
EU/NATO will try to join the western part of Ukraine ASAP to prevent second war and humiliation. Then probably Iron Curtain v2.0 OR some form of accepting reality and slow normalization (i wouldn't bet on it, but who knows).

>>63735086
>When will his trial begin?
what part of the constitutional court of Romania don't you understand?

>>63735071
The extra-EU trade alone is is worth more than 2.5 trillions, which is more than the entire Russian economy. The EU, by itself, controls 15% of world manufacturing output. Fucking Poland produces more automobiles than Russia, kek.

Shitholes, like Russia, are reliant on European companies, everything from modern airliners and spare parts from Airbus to advance chip making technology produced by ASML and other advanced machine tools.

You live in a paralel reality.

>>63735100
The part where consitution is not just a piece of paper like in any brown country.

>>63735064
Norktard, you forgot your tripcode.

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>>63735065
>china-tier manpower losses
>without having china numbers
hilariously enough, its a self correcting problem. all you have to do is allow east euros to grind them down into nothing until the hungry wolves on their asian borders come in the back door and tear them apart

we are so lucky they are so fucking stupid with their arrogance and delusions of grandeur

>>63735079
so what, state will just print more money.
in ussr 1 rubble = 1 rollar. checkmate.

>>63734881
>North korea higher than all of europe and america
What retard made this?

>>63735086
Here you go
>https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#{%22itemid%22:[%22001-242417%22]}
>its too hard for me to read
Here is the important part
>26. In the light of the above, the Court finds no indication that the powers of the President of Romania are such as to make that office part of the “legislature” of the respondent State, within the meaning of Article 3 of Protocol No. 1 to the Convention.
>27. It follows that this part of the application is incompatible ratione materiae with the provisions of the Convention within the meaning of Article 35 § 3 a) and must be rejected in accordance with Article 35 § 4 of the Convention.

>>63735111
>state will just print more money
Yeah, ask Argentina how that went for them. Or Venezuela. Or Cuba. Or Zimbabwe.

>>63735104
>The part where consitution is not just a piece of paper like in any brown country.
we know that understanding the rule of law is a hard thing for someone as brown as you.
so don't overthink it, just accept that you will never understand the White mans legal magic and content yourself with whatever you brown savages do on day to day basis

>>63735079
it partially did. they emptied out the healthcare, pension and school funds to funnel into the military

only school program that gets increased spending is the "patriotic" military classes. to inspire more meat for the grinder

Puzzia is going full suicide on this one

>>63735122
still there, still kicking

>>63735122
None of the states listed are actors.

>>63735108
First 3 years 1% of all of russia left.

Then they lost 1 million people, and bled at least 1.5 million more to people leaving south.

Then there's the thousands of russian troops that desert and switch sides.

>>63735115
All Asians have stupidly high IQs because they study math like the Amish study the Bible.

>>63734959
To be fair they eventually did capture Avdivka.

>>63735126
>still kicking
Yeah, the bucket.

>>63735001
that is why I say the most realistic chance is from ukranians tracking him down and finishing him off. They are held back of course but given how successful they have been with other targets directly in muscovias heart then they could pull it off

>>63734723
>>63734858
>This image is completely, unapologetically false. It's not even pretending to be accurate. I can only assume it was an unrelated infographic before someone replaced the legend.
Nta, but what the fuck are you talking about? Pretty every drinkable tap water map looks the same, with minor differences like Chile for example

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>>63735040
TWO MORE YEARS and the donkeys will have paris in sight!

>>63735132
it isn't that, you need to look at where to samples get taken.
It's the same with the PISA scores. The ones in Asia all get take in some of the most prestigious high achiever schools in the country, because that's how it works over there.
all about how it looks, not about how it works.
Meanwhile in the west it's random selection of schools and they won't even bother asking the best class/students to take them. Mainly because in the West it's seen not as a way to look good, but the improve your actual eduction.

>>63734979
Anon, Armenia doesn't share border with Russia. But as for your question I'd say Baltics or Kazakhstan. They will try Baltics if case they see some window of opportunity banking on Trump jsut lifting hands shrugging and saying Not my war.

>>63734903
Russian win conditions change pretty much daily but seem to include some variation of "give us all the land we want even if we don't occupy it, install a pro-Moscow government in Kiev, and ensure that when we come knocking again in another decade Ukraine can't defend itself". Ukranian win conditions remain the same: "Survive as a sovereign nation". If I had to put money on the outcome of this war I'm not going to bet on Russia.

>>63734984
>Russia receives US land-lease by the end of 2025
The worst thing is that this is now not entirely impossible scenario. Not likely but certainly not impossible either.

>>63734941
>Russia’s economy that haven’t been sanctioned in the 18th package. Why is that?
because its also a cat and mouse game of loopholes, new routes, alternative vendors, and such.

>>63735140
I'd like to think the FSB is not that grossly incompetent, but that's not a hill I'd die on. It's a whole can of worms though, it could just as well galvanize and solidify the entire population into further commitment with Putin left as a martyr or the whole rotten building could come crashing down without the kingpin holding it all together.

>>63735040
>Mark my words within the next 2 years most of europe will be pro-Russia.
It used to be. They had their agents all over Germany, thanks to the Reunification, but monkee had to chimp out about the harbour lease.

>>63735016
They already planning to restore status quo with russia and bring back usual business
Maybe new government changed that approach a little

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>>63735128
those 1 mil KIA/MIA have far reaching consequences

the numbers might seem "relatively" small given its claimed population of 140 mil something, yet over half of that number are retiress, useless even as battlefield fodder, and out of the slaughtered meat vast majority of them are 25-40 year olds

they are killing their prime male workforce and family breeders while trying to import unloyal churkas and nigs to replace them. In a situation where their youth population is as contracted as the worst post soviet shitpiles

we are so fucking lucky they are this stupid

>>63735146
Can you see Paris from the Hague?

>>63735148
>. They will try Baltics
Neurotic. Ukraine has grinded them to dust. NATO is stationed in the Baltics

>>63735165
We should have gone with the Morgentau plan, filthy savages can't be trusted to be left to their own devices.

>>63735158
ukranians advantage is that they have access to toys regular palace coupers dont have. Coordinated missile and drone strikes for example. usually these home grown assassins are small in numbers and actual capabilities even if its one military commander, like lets say Popov, commandeering a loyal brigade and marching on moscow

>>63735124
>pension[...]funds
The average Russian male life expectancy is 67 years. The average retirement age for men is 63 years and will be raised to 65 by 2028.

They don't really need a pension fund.

>>63735185
tell that to the putin fanboy female retirees (average age 75+) living here that are crying why didnt they receive their pay checks from mother puzzia in the last months (their conclusion is that it must be plot by the evil HATO fascists)

>>63735181
I'm not saying Ukrainians couldn't do it if they wanted to and were allowed to, what I'm saying is that the results could vary wildly and have unpredictable consequences, which is probably why they're being handheld. Not that Russians didn't try to murder Zelensky multiple times.