>>64548515
>They suddenly started a mass-modernization project (such as that T-90M2 thing) much larger than we anticipated
They publicly announced the modernization plans earlier this year. The video also states that the 72As and Urals have been found at the Ural plant.
>Uralvagonzavod doesn't have even close to the capacity required to modernize 450 tanks and keep the same rate of new production, and that they are supposed to this after they just fired massive parts of their workforce.
Russia most likely will force the factory to remain open. But the modernization plan is meant for Russia's tank fleet after the war. But for the delivery rates it's going to be a who really knows type of deal since we aren't sure if Europe or China would be willing to sell them anything if there is a peace deal/armistice

>>64548515
>44 T-54/55s have disappeared
>260 T-62s have disappeared
desparation

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>>64548515
>452 T-72A/Ural
Delicious, unmodernised 1970s vintage.

>>64548614
better or worse than scooters and golf carts?

>>64548617
Even a shitty old T-72 can shrug off a couple FPVs with some luck, more if you turn it into a shitbarn. A scooter or golf cart can get killed by near misses.

>>64548633
>Even a shitty old T-72 can shrug off a couple FPVs with some luck
Unironically the biggest issue is just getting the fucking shitbox to the battlefield in the first place, without suffering some kind of catastrophic irreparable mechanical failure in the process.
That has always been the main issue with Soviet tanks. Soviet propaganda always portrayed their tanks as simple and rugged tractors that would run forever, but your average T-34 had an engine and transmission lifespan of about 50 hours, and far more of them were lost to mechanical failure than to enemy action.
During WWII they selected a few dozen of the very best T-34s hammered together by various soviet factories for a test where they'd just drive them 800km to see what would happen, NONE of them made it without breaking down, and around 90% broke so badly that they couldn't be repaired without unreasonable amounts of time, money, and resources being spent to fix them.
Throughout the war, the Soviet strategy was just to get the tanks as close to the action as possible using trains, then hope and pray that at least half of them could make it to the battlefield without self-destructing in the process.

The T-54/55 series was a lot better in this regard, with engine life of some 1000 hours, and a transmission that wasn't broken from the factory, but it was still awful compared to western made tanks.
And the T-72 series wasn't much better than the T-54/55s. It was still badly made, unreliable, disposable garbage, with an auto-loader prone to jamming and ripping the limbs off crewmen, and that's not even mentioning the ammo storage situation...
Combine this with the fact that these tanks were already worn out when they were parked and abandoned in a scrap yard 30 years ago, and I'd estimate that of the 450-ish tanks pulled out of storage, only about 100 at the most will even make it to the battlefield.

>>64548515
they will do what they did with the t55s afterall they are all similiar

those that dont work will serve as artilery

>>64548515
This is reason why agent krasnov is getting desperate

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>>64548617
It doesn't really make much of a difference because russia doesn't have trained soldiers or complete units.
You have to understand that they're truly been reduced to nothing more than throwing everything they have at Ukraine without any semblance of large unit tactics or strategy.

Enemy the size of Russia would be dreadful if they weren't so utterly incompetent. Pic is always relevant.

>>64551480
id say its in part due to the fact that you just cant do large scale tactics in this current iteration of the war
anything more than a couple 52 year old prisoners on motorcycles diving into an empty trench line is going to attract a horde of FPVs

How much runway do they have left?

>>64551532
Let me tell you something you might not expect to hear.
Russia has enough resources for breakthroughs. Always had. They're just too fucking incompetent and stupid to pull anything complicated off.

>>64548515
if you look at Oryx's tank kill count, the answer is simple

>>64551557
>enough resources for breakthroughs but too incompetent to pull it off
id say that was true at the very start of the war before drones and defensive lines changed the fighting completely
even now with the increase of ukranian long range missiles and intel from the US its impossible for russia to build up anything significant

>>64550467
this unironically
many of these are being used as SPGs because there is still a lot of ammo for them and Russia is actually hard up for large caliber barrels more than anything. shell hunger became barrel hunger over a year ago. Nork supplies have run low enough that they're worried because moreso than the nukes their threat on the south is conventional artillery pre-sighted across the DMZ.

>>64551546
the war will enter a low intensity pseudo-peace-ish situation in late 2026-mid 2027 imo. There may be some kind of peace agreement on paper but it will be violated by both sides. Or they may just have an informal mutual end to offensive operations and occasional opportunistic posturing. I think the Nork-Iranian-Russian axis extended the runway by about a year and a half or so beyond what I thought Russia would be able to manage once the great counteroffensyiv failed.
saddest thing for Russia is they killed Suroviikin's career when he was indeed maybe the one non-idiot in leadership. If not for his fortification efforts it's very possible Russia would have either lost Crimea or would have been put into a siege situation where they were forced into peace.

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>>64551643
>the war will enter a low intensity pseudo-peace-ish situation in late 2026-mid 2027 imo.
I concur that the high-intensity frontline battles will probably stop next year, one way or another.
What interests me is that Russia is fully expecting to be welcomed back into the European economy and markets like Feb 2022 never happened. Which is a dangerous delusion.

>>64551673
nope it wont
what i think it will happen is that zelensky will be forced to accept the surrender terms one way or another even if they are revised
he gets to play the "we win"card
russia gets to keep all the minerals and most of the agricultural land
but in the end eu is gonna get the massive BBC on their ass

>>64551625
It was true at the start of the war because Russia sent its best units in.
>>64551643
>>64551673
I hate to repeat the 'Russia will collapse any day' wank but 2026 is looking to be a brutal year for them. Economically the war needs to have ended a year ago for it to be salvageable. Sanctions aren't being lifted any time soon and without fuel exports they barely have an economy, they can't even fuel themselves at the moment

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>>64552315
>I hate to repeat the 'Russia will collapse any day' wank but 2026 is looking to be a brutal year for them. Economically the war needs to have ended a year ago for it to be salvageable. Sanctions aren't being lifted any time soon and without fuel exports they barely have an economy, they can't even fuel themselves at the moment
I bet the Saudis and Azeris keep the price of oil down, and the EU manages to impose the Russian energy ban they've been planning for a while.
Side-note, is it just me, or is it extremely obvious how Orban and his clique were getting rich off of refining cheap Russian oil and then selling the products at global market prices?

>>64551673
>What interests me is that Russia is fully expecting to be welcomed back into the European economy and markets like Feb 2022 never happened. Which is a dangerous delusion.
This is maybe the least delusional part of Russia's "long-term" """strategy""". It is purely a matter of buying off some shockingly small number of German politicians for shockingly low prices; literally the only thing post-Soviet Russia is still good at.

>>64552090
I just dont see any way for either Russia or America to actually force big Z to capitulate

>>64552525
Probably the strongest card Trump has is Intel sharing.
Remove Intel sharing, and then Ukraine only has Euro satellites for recon.
... and Arianne Space just ain't Space Force.
We don't know for sure whether the recent uptick in successful Ukrainian refinery / Thermal Power Plant strikes is due to Ukie saturation, or due to US Intel. So US Intel may be a nothingburger. But it also might just be the lynchpin of Ukraine's strategy.

Or, hey, both Z and Poopin could be playing Footsie with Trump, and the recent hubbub could just be a meaningless repeat of the last dozen hubbubs.

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>>64552520
>This is maybe the least delusional part of Russia's "long-term" """strategy""". It is purely a matter of buying off some shockingly small number of German politicians for shockingly low prices; literally the only thing post-Soviet Russia is still good at.
Fair enough. I saw that the CDU Minister-President of Saxony has already starting calling for Russian energy imports to resume. (Fuck that guy)
On the other hand, the infrastructure situation is a non-starter. Nord Stream is kill, and Poland will not allow transit through the pipelines on their soil.

>>64552549
While this is true, the US already cut off aid and intel briefly back in Jan/Feb. Ukraine and the EU would have had some time to put contingencies in place by now. I'm not saying that US intel being cut off wont hurt (because it will, badly), but it is not quite as utterly devastating as it would have been.

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>>64548698
Good post, get snapped

>>64553096
Call me retarded, but how do you get a post into that shape on desktop?

>>64553104
You don't, I'm a despicable phone poster....
Actually, just resize the window until it works?

>>64552549
>>64552612
You also have to consider that the Ukies have been getting info from the U.S. for so long now and worked so closely with U.S. intelligence that they've probably learned a thing or two just from analyzing the patterns in the data they've been fed. They might not be able to get time-sensitive intel anymore but for major infrastructure that sits still, they can still hit it - and that's all they need to keep doing to bring Russia to its knees. Trump's threats aren't a result of having good leverage, they're a result of panic from his administration and from Putin because they realize that they have a very limited window to try to get some kind of diplomatic victory. Trump is getting less popular by the day and Putin's economy has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. If they can't spook big Z and the Euros into capitulating soon, they'll lose their chance entirely.

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>>64553261
Tangential to what you just said; but the amount of SEAD and DEAD experiential intelligence the US now has on Russian AD and their patterns is gold.

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>>64553261
>one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.

>>64548515
He says a lot of that satellite data is from this summer, that means Russia is out of any reserve tanks in 'decent' status now. Personally I would guess those T72 Urals are ot even going to the military but for a desperate hopium attempt to stick T90 bodykits on and fill the open contract with India instead of having to deal with the fact that they can't fill the order and further have burned though the T-90s they had for India by sending them to Ukraine.

"In November 2019, India announced that Heavy Vehicles Factory would produce 464 T-90 MBTs for 10 tank regiments. On 13 May 2024, Heavy Vehicles Factory delivered the first batch of 10 units of Bhishma Mk. 3, which is a more advanced variant of T-90, as a part of the 464 tank deal signed in 2019. The rest of 454 tanks will be delivered within five years."

All this while they basically can't and are entering collapse stage
https://www.reuters.com/business/big-russian-tank-railcar-manufacturer-says-it-is-restructuring-cut-costs-2025-11-07/

"Nov 7 (Reuters) - Giant Russian tank and freight railcar manufacturer Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) said on Friday it was restructuring its operations to reduce costs after a local media report said it planned to cut the number of its employees by up to 10%.
.............
The factory, which is run by a state conglomerate controlled by one of President Vladimir Putin's allies, has publicly said it produces T-90M battle tanks and modernises T-72B3M tanks.
Citing an internal document, local news outlet E1 reported earlier on Friday that UVZ planned to make cuts in staff across various departments of up to 10% by February of next year and to stop new hiring.
"

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2133711/russia-economy-transport-companies-bankruptcy

"7,000 companies face bankruptcy"
https://defence-blog.com/russian-shipyard-nears-collapse-amid-defense-industry-crisis/
"The Yaroslavl Shipbuilding Plant, ...... has reportedly failed to pay its workers for nearly two months."

>>64553261
Ukraine has better human intelligence in Russia than the US does.Ukraine itself ever since Turmps bullshit has been ensuring it has no dependency on stuff like starlink or US intel for a year.

The main consequce of Trump effectively ending NATO and EU co-operation is that the UK and EU will escalate, shoot down some Russian planes or sink a few Russian ships and just give up answering calls from the white house if Trump actually follows through and stops any sales to Ukraine and cuts intel provision. The suggested 'peace plan' from the white house is laughable, utterly unacceptable to the UK, EU and Ukraine and they are all just waiting to see if the US is actually going full retard or it's more spastic shit from the nobel peace prize winner who licks Putins anus as directed by the russian agents he brought into the US goverments top echelons. If the alliance between the EU, UK and US is actually severed because he does something retarded as opposed to just saying retarded shit, then it's a huge weakening of the US but it also means the UK and EU will escalate. They have been quite clear that Putin is a clear and present danger and the solution is total Ukranian victory, if necessary they will ramp pressure up on Putin to the extent of violence. The entire Russian military is engaed in Ukraine, they have a vast military arsenal, second only to the US and 1.6 million professional military personnel in uniform. A kaliningrad blockcade, a squadron of migs downed,actual response to Russian fucking around like jamming and drones by shutting down the enture western Russian military comms spectrum, their own cyber attacks officially sanctioned, widespread seizures of Russian assets and arrests of Russian agents, prosecutions etc etc.

But that will only happen if TRump and Hegseth and Vance,l do, not say something retarded, in which case the trans astalntic alliance will be history. The only reason the EU has held back reprsal tariffs is US support for Ukraine

>>64552549
>>64553261
Obviously if the US pulled the plug there wouldn't be much continued active collaboration, but I'm curious how much information they'd still be able to get through other Five Eyes members. Canada, the UK and Australia would presumably still have access to pooled resources on top of their own (by comparison limited, yes) sovereign capabilities.

>>64553379
If the US pulls the plug NATO is dead. US arms sales plummet and the EU imposes tariff reprisals and escalates with Russia. The only reason they have put up with Trumps shit is the US support for Ukraine and the hope of sanity remerging in the white house. If it becomes clear the US is actually by action a worthless and unreliable ally, it's mainly a problem for the US long term and the EU short term. They have Putin on the ropes, they will put him on the floor and no longer have to worry about upsetting Trumps dear friend too much. The dree of European rearmament and capability at this juncture absolutely crsuhes Russia.

>>64553270
And since all decision making has been captured by escalationcucks and literal zigger fifth columnists, none of it will ever be put to any use.
It pisses me off to no end that Europe won't just bomb all Russian assets on occupied territory into oblivion. No, Ziggerstan would not do shit, in fact that would be the only response they'd actually respect. The war could be over in weeks.

>>64548515
>After they just fired massive parts of their workforce.
WTF why? Doesn't Russia have the highest defense spending since the Soviet Union? Why would they want mass layoffs in the middle of a war?

>>64553425
They can't afford to pay the workers.
It's been a long time coming, but Russian economy is finally approaching the end of the road.

>>64548698
The 55 and 72 had engineering based around a fairly severe amount of comprise for the simple reason of massive amounts of production. They were sort of the epitome of 'enough' is a quality all of its own and there's a kernel of corn in the shit which does have that as a quality but in a funny kind of way is also contrary to a whole lot of factors. Maintenance cycles, loss of trained crews, logistics, spare parts and getting the fucking things places were they can be useful- keeping in mind they're not exactly a crate of milk and you need huge heavy lift capabilities.
But the main compromise is that you've spent vast amounts of money, resources, manpower, storage and training making a whole lot of shit that's just like milk in that its passed its used by date even before any kind of actual use. By about early 1960 the 55's were pretty much a joke and the 72's were not even making it to the 80's when people realised that they just not good enough. Despite the vast quantities of them and all the comprises in construction, design and build quality- they would not prove to be effective enough against western tanks from the same era.
Which of course leads to some lunacy
>The T-62's and T-80's
Those were essentially the double dog dare and double down everything in order to have that hard core armour groups that could go toe to toe and maybe at least, hopefully, maybe... break even against western threats. In terms of achieving that kind of parity is something that's well up for debate, but apparently it was worth enough that they threw even more money, resources, manpower and logistics chains at them. With someone in charge going 'da ist gud' and alleviating the paranoia of western armour doing doughnuts on red square for the lulz.

Then came the 1st Gulf war, which was so ruinous to the reputation of the T-72 that in a mix of shitting, screaming and anxiety, something had to be done
>just call it T-90
>brilliant!

>>64552315
>I hate to repeat the 'Russia will collapse any day' wank but 2026 is looking to be a brutal year for them
this is the very reason why I ran through the gauntlet of being called a vatnik and even janny'd for it at one time, because it was recognisably wank
the RuAF is in a shit state now, oh yeah
but it was definitely premature to say they were dead back then
and today it's still premature to call time on the country. like the Third Reich, they might not win the war but they still have ample capacity to drag Ukraine and maybe also Europe down with them

this is all to say that we shouldn't let our guard down until actual TZD

>>64553397
begone Rajesh

>>64553270
>Tangential to what you just said; but the amount of SEAD and DEAD experiential intelligence the US now has on Russian AD and their patterns is gold.
Useless because we know that a direct US/Russia conflict will never happen. We've also seen that Russian AD operators basically cower and flee if they know that they're being targeted and can afford to run away. Its been an open secret that the S-300/400 are complete trash and that the F-35s completely dunk on those platforms for a long time now.
>>64553397
>US arms sales plummet
Its funny because Europe, Turkey, and South Korea are currently eating into US arms sales and I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainian arms exports end up cornering the drone/cheap "good enough" missiles market in the future.

>>64553461
>Then came the 1st Gulf war, which was so ruinous to the reputation of the T-72 that in a mix of shitting, screaming and anxiety, something had to be done
It was the Chechyan war that ruined the T-72/80s reputation. Not the 1st Gulf War

>>64552520
>Buying german politicians
I know they got caught going it (kinda openly too to be fair), but there's no way they aren't buying politicians left and right in Europe. And other influencers too, I suspect. Every hippie dippie new age group has these people and gurus who have some weird Russian connection or sympathies

>>64553650
Bullshit, everyone running soviet armour in the early 90's had a collective shit fit as over 3300 tanks got wiped out in a matter of less than a couple of weeks. There was things like the Battle of Norfolk where they wiped out over 600 of them in one day and 73 Easting which took out 7 divisions of soviet armour
Chechen war had about 2-300 tops
Everyone on the news was watching Iraqi's getting buttfucked 24-7 constantly and no one wanted to be in a soviet tank or armoured vehicle

>>64551673
Vast majority of Germans are looking forward to normalisatuon of relations with Russia. No, I'm not baiting. That doesn't mean they LIKE Russians, but they desperately need cheap gas, asap.
And, to be honest, Germans never really abandoned their millenia old worldview where Europe ends with Oder and rest are just unwashed barbarians not worh a damn. They unironically feel more sympathy to some Lybians or Afghans than to let's say Belarusians.

>>64553674
yeah, cause modern Euros have no balls to implement sanctions on the enemy they are bloody well fighting, if it means they will suffer

if this was WW2 all over again they'd be moaning that Hitler or Tojo bought so much steel and copper and food, people would be destitute if we stopped selling to them, so we can't stop selling to them even as we are bombing them
especially if it's 1944 and we are finally putting the boot in, because think of the starving chilluns in Berlin / Tokyo
won't you think of the children?
make love not war!

>>64553461
>>64553671
How did various countries with Soviet gear react to entire columns being destroyed almost instantly in the Gulf War?

>>64553671
>>64553709
IIRC, The Russians attempted to excuse the massive loss of T-series tanks due to them being inferior "Export" models while also blaming poor Iraqi training and tactics (despite them following Soviet armored tactics and strategies to the T). When the Chechen war happened, Russia had no more excuses and allowed for the T-series tanks to be viewed as utterly useless by those who could afford western designs or by flat-out forgoing MBTs altogether and switched to large IFV and APC fleets instead. What's really funny is that during the 1st Chechen War, Russia stole some of the T-90S meant for export to India and lost them in Chechnya.

>>64551643
If tanks = SPG's why are there SPG's?

>we don't need assault rifles we have pistols

>>64552090
>t. ESL faggot in year 4 of the 3 day smo

>>64553709
my retarded cunt operates T72s

first the retards in my country said HURR DURR MONKEY MODELS
then Chechnya happened and the retards in my country said RPG UBER ALLES
then OIF happened, and that shut them up for quite a bit
then 2022 happened, and they got really really quiet
now however it's all DRONE UBER ALLES

this marks a shift in rhetoric from "yeah we admit Russian shit sucks" to "all tanks suck" meaning by implication, "Russian tanks don't actually suck"

it's all cope

>>64553728
and Russia stole some tanks meant for India again in the Ukraine war. Curious

>>64552549

Ukraine gets top tier SAR data from Finnish ICEYE satellites. Even Rheinmetal wanted to be a part of it. I do hope the data has lead to massive russkie losses.

Säkkijärven polkka intensifies.

https://www.iceye.com/newsroom/press-releases/rheinmetall-and-iceye-establish-joint-venture-in-neuss

>>64553593
>begone Rajesh
indians suck maga and kremlin ass, you're fucking lost with thowing that shit at a euro

>>64553785
the kremlin's jeet army does d&c of all kinds, moron

>>64551643
>the war will enter a low intensity pseudo-peace-ish situation in late 2026-mid 2027 imo.
I disagree. I do think that Russia's ability to continue offensives will deteriorate by then; however, I do not expect Ukraine to just allow things to rest there. Domestic Ukrainian sentiment is still completely unwilling to give up the Donbas, and really, the whole idea that russia gets to decide when to freeze the war, is nonsense. The very instant russia tries to wind down its troop and equipment commitment to fix its fucked economy, Ukraine will take advantage. And russia cannot maintain a lengthy and heavily militarized border. One of their core demands has been a severe limitation on the size of the Ukrainian military, and that's for good reason - if they get into an extended ceasefire, they need to sharply decrease their own force commitment, without losing everything

>>64553709
If was denied for a while, but this was over in 100 hours being telecast live on air across a dozen channels with embedded news teams\
In context a soviet client state like Iraq was the big dick in the middle east, they spent vast amounts of their GDP on weapons, they had a massive layered, networked air defense with vast amounts of radar coverage, a variety of aircraft including Mig-29's and huge stocks of soviet armour from WW2 to the height of the cold war.
They had soviet advisors and specialists, Iran War veterans and pretty motivated officers, some very hardcore nationalists and not inconsiderable amounts of missile systems.
Essentially it was built up on the basis that yes the west could attack them but would be bled white doing so. On paper this was pretty cutting edge cold war era gear

Problem was, western countries cold war gear was well into a post-cold war era so they were faced with top attack missiles, high grade night vision, targeting fire control, masses of very good ECM systems and extremely expensive, highly refined ground vehicles with GPS, networked operations rooms and cross-command, combined arms infrastructure in real time. So at any point a unit ran across that they couldn't deal with, there was an instant, on-call solution.
>You had 200 pieces of armour laid up hiding somewhere wanting to play tank vs tank?
>We're playing tank vs aircraft
But even then if they wanted to punch on against other armour the western armour just shredded them day, night at ranges that you just can't hit with a basic 1970's optical fire control, it was essentially that fact their communications were down, radar is down when units in the field are isolated, on their own and following soviet doctrine to the letter- well, other people read that doctrine as well and they spent years learning to kill it

Denial worked for a while, but the 'proofs' were a collective wake up eventually that there might not be an off the shelf solution they'd been sold

>>64553853
>random town noone ever heard of
>significant logistical centre
Kek

>One need merely observe the maps
But first you have to zoom in far enough to see individual houses. From the end of 2022 until today Russia occupied less than 1% of Ukraine. Those are your 'gains' after 3 years of war.

>>64553853
The US has spent fuckall in support this whole year, barely a drop in the overall defence budget.

>>64553869
>>pokrovsk is a random town now
When has it not been until ziggers started proclaiming how important it is? Avdiivka and Bakhmut are two other examples of 'strategic logistical lynchpins of the ukrainian front' and then nothing fucking happened. The front moves over to the next irrelevant strategically insignificant bombed out town over.

>may i remind you that ukraine IS the second biggest country
And Russia took two Luxembourgs worth of territory from it in 3 fucking years. How is that for a comparison you faggot?

>the current estimate(early novermber ) has russia at 163.000km2 of occupied land
Which includes Crimea and the Donbass occupied since 2014. It speaks volumes when you have to include territory controlled by Russia before the war started to 'pad' your statistics and also shows how pathetic you are.

>>64553867
The US is selling Europe all sorts of stuff at market prices which ends up in Ukraine, I don't think there's been anything 'free' as such since the end of 2024 apart from the trickle in from the Biden era.

>>64551643
>nukes their threat on the south is conventional artillery pre-sighted across the DMZ.
Stop repeating this nonsense. The artillery that is aimed at Seoul is a meme. The amount of actual pieces that can reach the centre of Seoul are incredibly low. The amount that can reach ''''SEOUL''''' is higher but the vast majority will hit the outskirts at best. There has been several wargames with this situation where USA and South Korea have assumed that;

1. North Korea has shells for all these pieces
2. North Korea has them all in working order
3. North Korea has experienced crews
4. North Korea has complete and utter operational surprise

And worked out that if North Korea had all these things and randomly just opened fired on Seoul they would kill 30,000-45,000 most likely. But there is no way that North Korea would do so, because to open fire randomly would be pointless. Not only would eventually their pieces (which are already located and marked for counterfire) be blown up, but they would likely kill Chinese nationals in Seoul who Beijing would not like dead, so you not only piss off South Korea (who have a better military than you) but you piss off USA (who have a better military than you) but you also piss off China (who have a better military than you). So you cease to exist, even if you start holding up your nukes. Which isn't what North Korea wants.
>w-w-well it's a deterrent to stop SK or USA attacking!
If that would happen, at a minimum of 50% of the artillery would be deleted in the opening salvo, massively reducing the fire onto Seoul and, most likely, Seoul would have done a 'shelter drill' and gotten most of the population into the masses of shelters they've built. So 30,000-45,000 deaths became 5,000. That's assuming Korean and American intelligence is so shit their opening salvo doesn't delete everything.

tl;dr, North Korea's dumb bomb nuke drop is more of a threat than their meme artillery.

>>64553869
>pokrovsk is a random town now
told you that right from the start

Oh, it's the brownoid who doesn't know how to capitalize words.

>>64553843
>western countries cold war gear was well into a post-cold war era
yes and no; yes, we had a strong suite of capabilities that were totally unmatched by anything in the Soviet arsenal
no, we essentially threw most of those against the Iraqis, because the Berlin Wall had fallen and the likelihood of using them on the USSR was quite low; and the bulk of the NATO military was still not yet modernised

there is a GAO paper assessing the 1991 war in terms of unguided vs precision guided bombs that, rather amusingly in my opinion, attempts to criticise the US PGM arsenal but ends up being rather complimentary
the findings were that most bombs dropped in 1991 were unguided, and only at most 20% of weapons launched were guided
the report "criticises" the military because statistically, guided weapons required 2 shots to kill a target, rather than the advertised "one shot one kill"

when you think about how many unguided bombs were needed - an average of 8-10 bombs in an area pattern to kill 1 target - that's nuts

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>>64553884
>prove a negative!
The burden of proof is on you, not me. This is shorthand for 'I'm a retard'.

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>>64553876
>the current estimate(early novermber ) has russia at 163.000km2 of occupied land
Its actually closer to 120.000. Why lie?

>i follow the war very closely
>to exclude crimea means that i ensure to get entrapped on your fatuous exercise such view only serves the whims of revisionists that only brings evidence as they see fit to win an argument that cant be won with logic

>>64553884
Oh, so you do agree that Crimera is Ukrainian land rightfully.

>>64553897
You replied to the wrong person, anon. I didn't mention anything you said in your post.

>>64553902
It happens.

>>64553908
You are making the positive claim that Pokrosk is an important strategic and logistical centre. Its on you to proe that claim you illiterate moron. I am not surprised in the least you engage in logical fallacias while proclaiming yourself the paragon of logic.

>not sure why your brain cant math but its not really my problem
see>>64553897
Not only do manipulate the data you outright manufacture it.


Since the front stabilized at the end of 2022, Russia has gained marginal territory. Nowhere close to 40 thousand sq km. Its why you have to talk about no-name towns and villages in eastern Ukraine and pretend they're somehow strategically significant while actual strategical targets, like Kharkov or Kherson, are so beyond reach you won't even mention them.

You're thirdie loser.

>>64548698
>The T-54/55 series was a lot better in this regard, with engine life of some 1000 hours
I'm not sure it actually was like that IRL instead of on paper. I remember people whom served in soviet army telling me that tanks (they would be serving during the T-55 - T-72 era) were fucked up and 3 out of 4 tanks were offline due to requiring maintenance of the engine.

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>>64553908

>>64553949
>3 out of 4 tanks were offline due to requiring maintenance
well that tracks, given the NATO expectation of our own vehicles was about 1/3rd to 1/2th availability at any time

>let me slide the thread again
Fuck off already, you turdoid.

>>64553104
depends on the browser, but eg. on firefox go to Tools > Browser Tools > Responsive Mode (ctrl+alt+M or some such). you can set the window dimensions and other stuff there

>>64553709
They mostly just coped and seethed about it

>>64553787
there is nothing thirdie shills could do to divide America and Europe more effectively than the current US administration

>>64553853
>yet another significant logistical centre has been lost
and what significant logistical centre would that be?

>>64553958
>ITS JUTS FACT BRO
>muh appeal to authority (that's not even an authority)
Any other logical fallacies you have for us today? You can't actually counteract anything I've said because you're too busy shitting on a street?

>>64553958
every time someone has all the links on standby only proves that they're shilling hard.
good morning(whatever shithole you're from) shillfarm!

>>64553996
He's just mad that Musk exposed his geolocation

>>64553991
Washington DC?

>>64554010
Think of all the izzat musk took that day

HOLY BROWN

>>64554025
imagine if you weren't a zigger :)

>>64554036
yeah but listen
you're a zigger :)

>>64554016
>evidence
>is actually an appeal to authority and contains 0 evidence
Guess how I know you're a sub 80IQ street shitter?

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>>64554010
I gotta admit this is quite funny

>>64554071
Maybe if you actually knew what a logical fallacy, in this case an appeal to authority is, you wouldn't be making these retarded posts.

>>Appeal to authority is a fallacy when those who use it do not provide any justification to support their argument. Instead they cite someone famous who agrees with their viewpoint, but is not qualified to make reliable claims on the subject.

You claim Pokrovsk is a vital strategic and logistical hub. You have no evidence for this so you find a random journalist (what you consider an authority on the subject lol) that might have said something to that effect and consider it as evidence. At no point you provided any actual evidence, this makes you a retarded brownoid incapable of independent, much less critical, thinking.

The problem lies in you being a subhuman brownoid.
Solve it by slashing your throat.

>>64554083
yes
Europipe 1 & 2 and Norpipe
Norwegian platforms directly supply Germany

why do you think Norwegians are that rich?

>before 2022
Norway was the second biggest supplier and Russia was No.1 with well over 40%
>today
Norway supplies via pipeline ~30% of all EU gas and some more via LNG
Russia sits at 6%, all coming through the Turkish pipeline and a little more with LNG imports

>>64551673
Germany and France are practically breaking down the door trying to let them back in. So dont expect any long term sanctions holding up

>>64554095
>muh links are evidence
See, you still don't get it, which just confirms you're mentally not equipped to be discussing herding sheep, much less warfare.

>>64553397
>EU won't lift a finger against russia because of the U.S.
Uh huh....

>>64554131
What evidence did you present you mouthbreathing retard?

>>64554136
>tries appeals to authority again
Lmao, what a fucking retard.

>>64554069
It's definitely one of the funniest backfires Musk has ever done
>reveal everyone's location as a gotcha to try and catch out Dem accounts being run by foreign operatives or Soros or whatever
>actually reveals MAGA accounts are being run by Russians and Indians unironically oblastposting
masterful gambit

>>64554143
Yeah, dude, the only way to do that was to go live and not check how it ends up internally first...

Fucks sake anon, think it trough. They had the data before they made it public.

>>64554147
What evidence? You STILL have not present any evidence for your claims. You're retarded so you will be unable to do so in the future either.

>>64554152
>I appealed to authority
We're going in circles, retard.

>most reputable agency
lmaooo

>>64554158
Nigger, let's not pretend you even read any of the links you posted. Because, if you did, you'd realize how insignificant Pokrovsk is.

from your 'source';
>"From the point of view of the battlefield, this is (the liberation of Krasnoarmeysk. — EADaily) doesn't make sense. This was important from an operational point of view because it was a supply line that supported Ukrainian logistics, which then branched out and supported other Ukrainian tactical positions in small villages and in the field around Pokrovsk," says George Barros

Now you can go back to pretending you're not a fucking retard.

>>64554015
that was lost all the way back in November 2024

>>64554149
We're talking about a guy who pushes through updates to his LLM to glaze himself in any category clearly without any serious testing
I could see that happening

>>64554181
I don't use twitter except occasionally, follow noone and have 0 tweets. That being said its improved since Musk took over. Community notes and this kind of transparancy wasn't a thing beforehand. What we had was shadowbans and censorship.

>>64554201
>LOOK AT MY 'EVIDENCE'
>N-NOT LIKE THAT
and so anon continued to pretend he's not retarded

>>64554218
You're a retarded brownoid, there is nothing to refute.

>>64554223
Surely now that Pokrovsk, the key strategic and logistical hub, has fallen the entire frontline is opened.

Oh, right, nothing fucking changed. This is literal proof that you're a dumb retarded faggot that lives of constructed narratives.

Enjoy being a shitskin
>:)

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>Ctrl F "tank"
>last post containing that word over 50 posts ago
personally I'm hoping they bring the FLAT FUCK out of the museum and try it out

>>64554250
>muh zoomed in map
Less than 1% of Ukraine was occupied by Russia since the end of 2022. Our punjabi streetshitter is going full circle. He is not capable of independent thought.

>>64554232
Has Pokrovsk fallen?
Last time I checked the Russians were still south of the railway line and going nowhere fast

>>64554265
I'm just humoring him but its ultimately irrelevant because it changes nothing in the grand scheme of things.

The whole obsession with counting sq km like beans is retarded. Standing and fighting to the death shows nothing but tactical inflexibility in most cases. The goal is to exhaust and deplete the enemies ability to wage war.

>>64554320
>The whole obsession with counting sq km like beans is retarded. Standing and fighting to the death shows nothing but tactical inflexibility in most cases. The goal is to exhaust and deplete the enemies ability to wage war.
This

sq km obtained, money spent, casualties inflicted, tanks destroyed, home front morale and future budget are all metrics used to measure
>the enemies ability to wage war

it's a mistake to fixate on any one metric, and a further compounding mistake to imagine that the same metric applies to different wars

Meanwhile

>>64554333
24.11.2025
Tanks — 11366 (+3)
Armored fighting vehicle — 23620 (+5)
Artillery systems — 34626 (+41)
MLRS — 1549
Anti-aircraft warfare — 1248
Planes — 428
Helicopters — 347
UAV — 83769 (+431)
Cruise missiles — 3981
Ships (boats) — 28
Submarines — 1
Cars and cisterns — 68006 (+84)
Special equipment — 4003
Military personnel — aprx. 1166450 people (+1190)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsqM8ihqMXo

>>64554367
what's the source of this data?
is this total losses, or what?

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>>64553869
The latest estimate I saw was 115.281km2 and that's including Crimea lmao

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>>64553874
>Avdiivka and Bakhmut are two other examples of 'strategic logistical lynchpins
Those were monkey model lynchpins

>>64553876
Blessed knower

>>64554250
If the only effect of Pokrovsk falling is a fall of Pokrovsk, then it wasn't that important from strategic point of view. Or maybe you have some evidence that it lead to at least partial front collapse?

>>64553728
>>64553671
>>64553650
It is worth pointing out that the T-72s reputation was already shit in some circles before the gulf war. During the Iran-Iraq war Iran, China and the DPRK were all unimpressed by them.

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>>64554036
Zigger isn't a nationality dumbo

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>>64554558
>bigboyshoes.jpg

>>64554115
I prefer Europipe 2 if you catch my drift

>>64548515
>2. They suddenly started a mass-modernization project (such as that T-90M2 thing) much larger than we anticipated them to do even though Uralvagonzavod doesn't have even close to the capacity required to modernize 450 tanks and keep the same rate of new production, and that they are supposed to this after they just fired massive parts of their workforce.

This just makes me wonder if the North Koreans and maybe Iranians are going to try to modernize their tanks.

>>64548633
Given that most of these improvised AliExpress FPVs are just a RPG-7 round, I don't think they shrug anything off.

>>64554634
>improvised AliExpress FPVs are just a RPG-7 round, I don't think they shrug anything off.
You're very confident in your outdated knowledge, but you did arrive to the correct conclusion.

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>>64548515
Where and when T-44, IS-3, T-10, ISU-152, ASU-85, ASU-57, ASU-85, SU-100. BTR-40, PT-76, BRDM-1, BTR-152

>>64554630
Norks already have their own designs and Iran pretends it does.

>>64553853
Learn English first.

>>64554162
>george barros
that the guy who worked with hillary blinton?

>>64554236
where PT-76

>>64554642
they're not mostly AliExpress drones anymore?

>>64554730
I mean modernize the tanks for the Russians

>>64553876
>the 2nd Korean war starts
>UN response force jointly led by the US-China
Fund the movie

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>>64554143
It is amusing but I can't decide which is worse.

On one hand, the worst of terminally online magatards aren't actually native burgers. Great.
But on the other, american voters are dumb enough to be manipulated by useful idiots who aren't even their own.

If europeans were such gullible cattle in the face of russian propaganda, there would be no europe.

>>64554886
The Norks might be able to show them how to put 125mm guns on the T-62s they want to modernize. Russia could figure it out themselves but why bother when someone else already did it? The question there is the mystery of how the Nork 125mms actually function and if Russia would need to make new ammo or put existing ammo into one piece cases.

>>64554967
>If europeans were such gullible cattle in the face of russian propaganda, there would be no europe.
You say this like Western Europe isn't infected, it's only the nations that border Russia and who have lived and experienced their shit that give a shit about them.

>>64552315
>but 2026 is looking to be a brutal year for them
I'm more interested how the refinery bombing will pay off this winter. What do muskovites use for heating?

>>64554194
>Community notes
Came out over a year before Musk took over.

>>64553985
truthpill

>>64555095
>it's only the nations that border Russia
Such as Belarus? It's not that black & white.

>>64554967
The gullible idiots usually just don't get an absolute majority here... usually, look at brexit or Orban. It's more that europe isn't a federal state, so they can't win everywhere at once.

>>64554643
Holy kek

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>>64554069
Ive been getting keks from this shit all week

>>64553728
>IIRC, The Russians attempted to excuse the massive loss of T-series tanks due to them being inferior "Export" models
This was true though. The export ammo was worse too

>>64554967
>If europeans were such gullible cattle in the face of russian propaganda, there would be no europe
I dont think these people are representetive of americans but the same can be said for us europeans

>>64554143
>>actually reveals MAGA accounts are being run by Russians and Indians unironically oblastposting
>masterful gambit
Not really the case, its generally a pretty widespread problem across the spectrum. But you do you bud.

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>>64555660
American voters are not representative of americans?

>>64555671
idk bud I've only seen examples of maga accounts being run out of India, but you do you, I guess

>>64555726
>idk bud I've only seen examples
Because you're in an information silo.

>>64552549
Intel sharing is deliberately overhyped to stroke Trumps ego.
Obviously it's very nice to have, but it's not like the frontline collapses without it or Ukraine suddenly forgets where Russias refineries are.

>>64555095
It is infected, but the infection rate is lower to a degree that the european versions of magatards consistently fail to win any power and when they do, they still either have to form coalition governments which castrates their retardedness OR they fuck up and lose power immediately by being obviously corrupt foreign assets.

>>64555751
This phenomenon is so fascinating to me. Could it perchance be that the people are unhappy with the status quo? NO! 'tis the Russians manipulating them!

Clown.

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>>64553104
The forbidden
>resize the fucking window you retard
technique.

>>64548515
why does Russia mothball their shit in the swamps?
why don't they mothball in the deserts north of Georgia
can you imagine the smell of these hunks of shit?
?

>>64555678
"American" voters don't even need IDs to vote. There are no real checks to see if they're even allowed to vote, or how many times they've voted. Mail-in ballots (blatant forgeries) from "people" who upon closer inspection, died decades ago, are still counted.

Generally speaking, unless you're required to display a valid ID to vote, AND you need to attach a single-use voting card with unique code on it to your ballot in the process, AND the process has full transparency where detailed voting info in each district is available to the public, the process is a sham.
If machine voting is implemented/permitted at any stage in this process, it cannot be considered a valid and fair election. Rigging voting machines is ridiculously easy, and mail-in ballots are usually just blatantly obvious ballot stuffing election fraud.

But let's just forget all that, because the "experts" on the nightly news all agree that voting machines can't be hacked or rigged, and requiring IDs to vote is racist, or anti-freedom, or something.

>>64555758
>unhappy with the status quo.

A sizeable portion of the population is always unhappy with the status quo. And always will be.

The voters who are just "unhappy with the status quo" will vote for the so called "3rd option" once, and once they reach power and mess up and or fail to fulfill their promises, as they always do, these voters realize their mistake and not vote them again. That only leaves the unironic foreign assets.

>>64555798
>There are no real checks to see if they're even allowed to vote, or how many times they've voted. Mail-in ballots (blatant forgeries) from "people" who upon closer inspection, died decades ago, are still counted.


Oh they are? Can we see them?

> unless you're required to display a valid ID to vote, AND you need to attach a single-use voting card with unique code on it to your ballot in the process,

This makes vote traceable to the person who made it, violating a very important protection in the election process of *not giving the new people in power information about who exactly voted who*

>and requiring IDs to vote is racist, or anti-freedom, or something.

Requiring IDs while not willing to provide them free of charge, knowing racial minorities are overwhelmingly in the uneducated and poor segments of society and therefore most likely affected by this change, is racist.

>>64555234
>What do muskovites use for heating?
Sodomy, I assume

>>64555804
>everyone who doesn't vote how I want them to is a foreign asset

>>64555842
>Requiring IDs while not willing to provide them free of charge, knowing racial minorities are overwhelmingly in the uneducated and poor segments of society and therefore most likely affected by this change, is racist.
You need ID to get welfare. Shut up.

>what about america
smells awfully brown in here

>>64555863
Lmao strawmanning this hard.

>>64555874
You're not accusing voters of being foreign assets because (you) disapprove of how they vote?

>>64554069
>>64554643
While there's absolutely a paid shill factor, another reason you see this shit is because at least in the case of the tickmarked accounts, the pittance that twitter pays out for engagement can be enough to make a living in places like India.
So on top of all the other shill problems there's now an outright baked in financial incentive for people to make their own, home-grown, free-range engagement bait and shilling content on anything hot-button or contentious.

>>64555842
>Requiring IDs while not willing to provide them free of charge, knowing racial minorities are overwhelmingly in the uneducated and poor segments of society and therefore most likely affected by this change, is racist.
nonsense, in most European nationsa you can't vote unless you provide a passport or other photo ID that matches your voter registration which is cheched before you are given a ballot. The idea that you just walk up to a polling station and demand a vote is absurd, to insist on a reasonable photo id check is standard for opening financial accounts at banks, social security, legal processes etc.

If ID is 'racist' for polling then it's 'racist' in all these other situations and your answer is just make it a free for all and fraudsters paradise?

>>64555842
>>64555842
>Requiring IDs while not willing to provide them free of charge, knowing racial minorities are overwhelmingly in the uneducated and poor segments of society and therefore most likely affected by this change, is racist.

passport applications have charges attached so freedom to travel is 'racist' because some brown people are poor? Are you clinically retarded?

>>64555678
No, what i mean was that the "DARKMAGA2028" or "ANTIFA420"-posters does not represent the average american opinion or voter, even if some of those types are actually nigerain bots.

>>64555951
nta maybe but this shit is derraged comedy from bunkerchan that you must need to be on drugs to find sane
>>64555842
>Requiring IDs while not willing to provide them free of charge, knowing racial minorities are overwhelmingly in the uneducated and poor segments of society and therefore most likely affected by this change, is racist.

>>64555937
NTA but ballot stuffing isn't really a good way to cheat in any halfway competent electoral system. You need a frankly absurd number of people to make it work on a scale to swing things, and those sorts of things are already detected. There's always prosecutions after an election for people that either accidentally or maliciously voted multiple times or under different names. The real weak points are usually further up the chain, it's much easier to have a few electoral or state officials fudge something in your favour, relatively speaking.
Not weighing in on the ID argument itself, you guys can have it out over that one.

>>64555731
4chan?

>>64555842
This has to be bait
I refuse to believe that anyone can unironically defend this level of organizational retardation on an anonymous forum

>>64555842
>Oh they are? Can we see them?
Even the Heritage Foundation found like a few dozen cases of this, if memory serves me right. The rest is Mike Lindell-tier crying about busloads of mexicans and whatever

>>64555798
You dont need an ID to vote in my country either, you just need to be a citizen and have registered with the AEC (our independent electoral commission which, amongst other things, draws electoral boundaries in strict accordance with a publically available, nonpartisan set of rules)
If you have to register to vote in America then there is simply no need for voter ID, making it a transparent attempt to make it more difficult to vote

>>64556022
The AEC does have an advantage in that mandatory voting makes it even easier to determine if someone is trying to pull some sneaky shit.
It also has the advantage of no voting machines and a broad level of public trust, and an overall less cutthroat political climate.
While I don't think voting machines are much of a real risk, I really don't see what advantage they offer for the point of failure and expense they represent. The AEC is able to give an indicative count for most things on the same night and they're doing it all with pure paper and more complex preference systems.

As an European, I don't understand why you guys have to vote on a weekday (Tuesday I think?). Yeah old tradition yada yada. Just move it to Saturday like pretty much everywhere else on the planet, and you'll get less of those mail/early voting.

>>64555950
There is no such thing as "Freedom to travel to other countries", you stupid cunt. You are allowed to leave the US without passport, nobody else just has to let you in.

>>64555937
>nonsense, in most European nationsa you can't vote unless you provide a passport or other photo ID that matches your voter registration which is cheched before you are given a ballot.

In every single European nation that requires this, temporary ID's will be provided by the government to those who need them so they can vote.

>The idea that you just walk up to a polling station and demand a vote is absurd, to insist on a reasonable photo id check is standard for opening financial accounts at banks, social security, legal processes etc.

Indeed it is.

>If ID is 'racist' for polling then it's 'racist' in all these other situations

It's racist if it's intended effect is to mainly effect racial minorities. Which it is, in the republican agenda.

If an ID is required, acquiring it ought to be free for the purposes of voting, and subsidized for the poor who need it as a necessity to live their lives, such as banking services and such.

>>64556001
The U.S. elections are retarded, but the magatard talking points to fix them are done with the sole intent to disenfranchise the poor and the racial minorities, not to actually fix a problem that exists.

Tell me, how many cases of voter fraud could the Trump camp prove after 2020, and in how many courts were they successfully able to pursue these claims?

>can't vote because you can't afford an ID
Good. We need to go back to voter eligibility requiring you to be a landowner.

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>>64556199
>It's racist if it's intended effect is to mainly effect racial minorities. Which it is, in the republican agenda.
absolute bullshit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Scott

pic republican

don't worry americans, your demented orange leader and his cabal of incels will rig the next election anyway, as promised, so you won't have to ever worry about voting again

the topic of this thread is TZD

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>>64556255
>wanting to regress from democracy to feudalism
Keep walking my laird, this is a serf neighborhood.

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>>64553261
> one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel

>>64554236
First I thought the pic was stored with wrong proportions

>>64556214
See: North Carolina
They tried to implement a photo ID law a while back, but it was struck down by the courts because their legislature requested voter information broken down by race to write the bill.
Specifically, they found what forms of ID were more likely to be used by black people, and said those weren't allowed anymore. No evidence that the determination had anything to do with "fraud", just a naked attempt to cheat.

https://www.ca4.uscourts.gov/opinions/published/161468.p.pdf
>In response to claims that intentional racial discrimination animated its action, the State offered only meager justifications. Although the new provisions target African Americans with almost surgical precision, they constitute inapt remedies for the problems assertedly justifying them and, in fact, impose cures for problems that did not exist. Thus the asserted justifications cannot and do not conceal the State’s true motivation.
This shit is why people don't trust magats when they screech about "election security". Whatever actual problems might exist with the way our elections are run, they've proven time and time again that they can't be trusted to write the rules.

>>64555842
that particular election was a massive unicorn of a statistical outlier; honestly, I did not believe it and to this day I still have trouble believing it but that's what the math shows
either there was this sudden total shift in the entire nation's voting pattern for just one round and then not again, or there was fuckery afoot

trust the science, remember?

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>>64556484
>that particular election was a massive unicorn of a statistical outlier
Not really.
Maybe you should read more about US political history to understand how shrinking margins and hyper-partisanship make election results weird and hard to predict. You know, like the Experts do.

>>64556214
>but the magatard talking points to fix them
Running elections like they do in England, France and Germany is magatard racism?

>>64556544
2020 was a total and complete anomaly in every single way. Its not controversial to say that.

>>64556472
>magats
Post guns.

>>64556578
Trump was divisive and poorly handled a crisis that touched the lives of every single American during his reelection year.
If you can't make sense of that, you're a retard.

>>64556544
>Not really
The bellwether counties went utterly off the rails.

>>64556598
>it was a wave bro!
If that were the case, there would not be statistical inconsistencies. We know what a wave looks like. We've had plenty.

>>64556607
Also, Bidens vote distribution was extremely unusual.
>blowouts in certain places, underperformance in others

A D+10 election is usually evenly spread out as a +10

>>64556607
Now do Clark County and the blue wall.
Or do you only look for "inconsistencies" when you don't like the outcome?

>>64556644
>Now do Clark County
1 against 22 data points?

>>64556578
>Running elections like they do in England, France and Germany is magatard racism?

They're not trying to run them like they do in England, France and Germany, nitwit.

>>64556608
>The election didn't go my way, they must've cheated!

>>64556607
>Bellwethers
They're bellwethers until they're not. They're not some magic area that always predicts an outcome, they're a statistically curious group of areas that's always changing. They aren't 'wrong', they just voted in a way that doesn't match the overall outcome this time, and somewhere else is now a step closer to becoming every dipshit pundit's favourite place to talk about instead.
But I guess pointing out how numbers work is too much 'listening to the experts' for you, too.

>>64556840
I'll never take anybody that makes excuses for leftists in the "firearms community" even remotely serious.
You're a walking, breathing inside joke and a parody of a man.
Like someone that votes socialist and complains about tax increases.
A straight(faggot) fucking retarded.

>>64556859
That was my first post in this argument. I have no horse in the rest of your bullshit, but the fact you didn't even try and defend trying to use bellwethers as predictive tools makes me think you know you can't.

>>64556840
>They're bellwethers until they're not
Certainly, but 22 all at once across multiple states? Utterly unprecedented.

that anon isn't me BTW

>>64553891
It was in a few ways, one of the largest wars of its type to be the first to make the most use out of networked systems when it came to communications and GPS. People I don't think at the time appreciated the degree of ground breaking IT required to set that up in the 90's, much less now when such things are fairly common. Back then it would have taken a lot of very smart people, a whole heap of wiring up and a mix of terrestrial and space based communications networking technology. Having just one working is an achievement, having multiple types across dozens of types of (theoretically) standardised equipment was really something.

To some extent the 2nd gulf war had really made a lot more use of guided munitions as a matured technology, they'd been around since the 60's of course but it was stuff like the Hellfire, JDAM and Tomahawk really got thrown around like you'd give a street busker a coin! Having a good time over there lil fella? Here, have a 500lb JDAM
The Operations Room channel quite a few years ago now did a fairly comprehensive look at some of the opening days of the 1st Gulf War along with some of the missions, which to say the least are super ballsy runs on target. Sure some people have watched them, but if you haven't they're worth checking out

>>64556876
Not really, because you need to keep in mind that again, a bellwether isn't a predictive tool. They come about because certain areas end up reflecting the 'average' voter better than other areas. All that a 'miss' tells you is that for that election, whatever property may have been keeping it in line with wider trends wasn't enough in that given election to make it representative.
Basically, you need both a proper explanation for why a bellwether should be accurate beyond 'it just is', and then an explanation for why it wasn't, and a good set of counter-arguments against other explanations. And at that point if you have a good set of explanations you don't even need a 'bellwether' in your argument to begin with, because at that point you've actually got an example of something untoward. And this is where the topic forks. If they're all bellwethers for similar reasons, then it'd actually be pretty normal for them all to be 'wrong' together. If you're inclined to see the election as fraudulent, you'll see that as proof that something made them wrong. If you're not, you won't.

I hope it doesn't come off as me saying it's not unusual, but at best it's a sign for further digging rather than an argument in and of itself. All sorts of unusual statistics happen when you hold enough elections with enough people and counties across enough time.

>>64556130
>an overall less cutthroat political climate.
I dont think the Americans have ever gone through 7 different leaders in 5 years

>>64556859
Imagine being this retarded everyday of your life.

>>64556962
True. I probably should've clarified I meant electoral politics and the political culture, not party room.

>>64556970
Nobody likes you its why the gun store employees always try to dump garbage on you