New RUSI content dropped>https://static.rusi.org/rp-disrupting-russian-air-defence-production.pdftl;dr Russian air defenses have systematically improved and shoot down a high percent of Ukrainian deep strike drones.
>>64626860>Russian air defenses have systematically improved and shoot down a high percent of Ukrainian deep strike drones.Only 1 has to make it
>>64626860>tl;dr Russian air defenses have systematically improved and shoot down a high percent of Ukrainian deep strike drones.Is that why they had to desperately beg Turkey to sell them back their S-400s?
>>64626860>Russian air defences learned how to track and engage Western munitions effectively and the rate of successful Ukrainian hits dropped from over 70% with GMLRS in 2022, to around 30% in 2023 and 2024, and often close to 8% in 2025>up to 10 ATACMS must be committed to destroy one radar>Russian point defense has a 50% success of shooting down Storm Shadows>Out of a salvo of 100–150 Ukrainian anti-refinery UAVs, costing $20k-$80k ea, about 10 will get to their target
>>64626860>>64626877I mean, that's not really much of a surprise. There's enough of a network there to influence how the Ukies choose their targets, which means that wherever it is, it's functional enough to do something. Good thing so much of it got ack'd back in '22-'23. Some actual production numbers would be nice, but that's the same black hole as any other case of trying to get reliable numbers out of Russia.
>>64626927>thread doesn't give OP his screencaps for /pol/>"fine, I'll do it myself"
>>64626927Stop embarrassing yourself
>>64626930Can we keep the reddit reactions out and focus on weapons please?
>>64626944You are brown and your false flags smell like curry from a mile away.
>>64626967 >ziggers and jeets still posting this like it isnt the most awesome shit ever
>>64626927Pidorussian pretending to be an outraged pro-ukr
>>64626877>don't take war seriously>fuck around for 3 years because muh escalameme n sheit>the plan to "win" is to drag it out until the enemy gets sick of it and sues for peace>another year of trying to sue for peace because the enemy didn't actually sue for peace while wanting the peace deal winners get without actually bothering to win>enemy actually adaptsWow what a fucking shocker. This really is going in history books as Westerners pulling off a defeat out of a guaranteed victory.
>>64626967bretty cool desu
>>64626967Am I supposed to not think that's fucking metal?
>>64627196>guaranteed victory.a country going up against another with 3x the population and more energy + industry was always a losing bet
>>64627424Sure but the point is that the West dwarfs Russia even worse than that, with proper support the inverse would be true, and Russia would be cooked. As it is now their best hope is pyrrhic victory.
>>64627446>Sure but the point is that the West dwarfs Russia even worse than thatYes, but that's irrelevant at the end of the day if you aren't going to intervene directly as a combatant, and there is nowhere near enough will for this to happen either among politicians or among the general populace.The west has a much bigger combined GDP but doesn't have military industry designed for producing high-quantity low-cost items for a sustained years long war. Changing this would have actually required setting up new state-run partly-state run industries on a large scale which has happened to a very small degree but far from being enough. To change and reverse the tide of the conflict the west would have needed a New Deal or Marshall Plan type scheme to set up WW2 levels of military industrialization and give all the resulting products to Ukraine, but as we know this never happened.If you just leave it to companies chasing the profit motive as they are legally obliged to their shareholders to do they will never be incentivized to set up factories churning out millions of cheap shells, drones etc but will always try to focus on expensive stuff. Russia despite a lower GDP kept a lot of old soviet factories on life support with large sections being unused until they began to ramp them up starting in the second half of 2022 which has enabled them to sustain their war effort for 3 years with no signs of their advances stopping. Russia's manpower situation is sustainable and Ukraine's isn't which is why only the Ukrainian side complains over being outnumbered in certain areas.Absent some massive industrialization in the west Russia is currently on track to win if nothing changes.
>>64627614>Russia despite a lower GDP kept a lot of old soviet factories on life supportMore like palliative care, Uralvagonzavod is slashing workforce and orders. Either they're extremely confident of total victory, or more likely they're ailing miserably after failing to come close to the cope figures russia spouts about it's military production whilst it's troops die in sturmladas and motorbike dragoon assaults.
In hundred pages there is one small section discussing that firing multiple $300k~$1mil missiles to shoot down every $30k drone is in itself lose situation for Russia
>>64626877>The reason for the increase in interception rates? They eventually ran out of AC units.
>>64627424The real shocker has been how long this war has lasted. Old western equipment turned a 3 day operation into a 4 year clusterfuck
>>64626860I doubt it.
>>64627785>Uralvagonzavod is slashing workforce and ordersThat's because they are transfering the workforce to a new factory, where the T14s are secretely being build :^)
>>64626860Interesting read, especially when it comes to drone/cruise missile efficiency in long range strikes. >>64627785They are likely running out of refurbishable hulls or at least have to drastically reduce the pace of refurbishment and have corresponding overcapacity. Even if they meet their rather ambitious production targets for T90M2, they will require significantly less workers. Unfortunately there are only estimated raw production costs rather than lifecycle costs regarding the T90M2 which would be interesting. Because in order to rebuild the tank fleet, Russia can no longer cannibalize stored units for spares but rather has to produce those aswell.
>>64627785I've never managed to get a good picrel for my folder of a T-90 plant post-2022.
>>64626877
>>64627614>The west has a much bigger combined GDP but doesn't have military industry designed for producing high-quantity low-cost items for a sustained years long war.It increasingly does, though. While Russia increasingly doesn't anymore.>If you just leave it to companies chasing the profit motive as they are legally obliged to their shareholders to do they will never be incentivized to set up factories churning out millions of cheap shells, drones etc but will always try to focus on expensive stuff. *Laughs in Rheinmetall*>with no signs of their advances stoppingIs that why 2025 has seen more russian losses and less russian advances than every other year of the conflict? Is it why russina advnaces are now suffering regular reverses?>Russia's manpower situation is sustainable Is that why they're now cleared reservists to be sent back?>and Ukraine's isn't Is that why they still don't even recruit anyone below age 25?>which is why only the Ukrainian side complains over being outnumbered in certain areasLMAO, the ziggers are constantly complaining about manpower shortages.
>>64628576I don't get it.
>>64626877>he actually thinks the ziggers regularily intercepting 92% of GMLRS munition is a relaistic claim to make
>>64626860Lol. Then why are there currently several refineries burning?
>>64631518It's probably counting EW. Excalibur fell off pretty hard in a jam-heavy environment, too
>>64631528>EW>GMLRSThis is getting even more stupid.>Excalibur fell off pretty hard It went from hitting directly to "missing" by less than the kill radius.
>>64631528Ivan you're not subtle.
>>64627614>The west has a much bigger combined GDP but doesn't have military industry designed for producing high-quantity low-cost items for a sustained years long war. Changing this would have actually required setting up new state-run partly-state run industries on a large scale which has happened to a very small degree but far from being enough. To change and reverse the tide of the conflict the west would have needed a New Deal or Marshall Plan type scheme to set up WW2 levels of military industrialization and give all the resulting products to Ukraine, but as we know this never happened.>If you just leave it to companies chasing the profit motive as they are legally obliged to their shareholders to do they will never be incentivized to set up factories churning out millions of cheap shells, drones etc but will always try to focus on expensive stuff.Exactly. I have observed this too. The only ground combat system that the west can produce in large numbers are simple low tech armored cars on civilian chassis using civilian engines and gearboxes and armed with a low tech world war 1 heavy machine gun on a ring mount. They are called MRAPs and there are thousands of them being supplied to Ukraine. But they are not the stuff you need to do an armored assault - they are for rear area patrols.
>>64631533>It went from hitting directly to "missing" by less than the kill radius.It went to 6% hit rate because russian spoofed GPS means the shell flies off course by its own guidance hardware. Once a smart muntion has been spoofed, its not going to miss by a little.
>>64631536Silence, tourist. The people who are interested in the technological back-and-forth are speaking. There will always be more webm threads to jack off in.
>>64631525Because even though only 10/160 hit the target, thats still 10 drones hitting the target.
>>64631509puccian air defense crusade against window mounted air-conditioners
>>64631660I love these meaningless figures. What's evne a "hit" supposed to be here, the shell slamming right into the individual targeted zigger?
>>64632902Hitting close enough to the target to have some kind of effect.
>>6462686014.12.2025Tanks — 11410 (+1)Armored fighting vehicle — 23721 (+7)Artillery systems — 35041 (+9)MLRS — 1567Anti-aircraft warfare — 1259 (+1)Planes — 432Helicopters — 347UAV — 90124 (+440)Cruise missiles — 4073 (+13)Ships (boats) — 28Submarines — 1Cars and cisterns — 69798 (+81)Special equipment — 4026Military personnel — aprx. 1188490 people (+710)>>64626860>tl;dr Russian air defensesKeep blowing up daily
>>64626877>10 will get to their targetThis is supposed to be good? I mean were 100/100 hitting before? The idea is none hit their target.
>>64633117It costs the Ukrainians $200k-800k to bomb a $10 million refinery, it's over.
>>64626877>>up to 10 ATACMS must be committed to destroy one radar>>Russian point defense has a 50% success of shooting down Storm ShadowsI remember encountering outlandish claims like this from RUSI before. Are they interviewing russian MOD?
>>64626860>Russian air defensesDecember 14, 2025 1Explosions were reported at an oil depot near Simferopol in occupied Crimea, a chemical plant in the Russian city of Veliky Novgorod, and several energy sites, media reported late on Dec. 13.An oil depot near Uryupinsk, Volgograd Oblast, and a power station in Smolensk were reportedly hit by drones, media reported.Russian authorities reported 41 drones over the territory of occupied Crimea amid the reported explosions at an oil depot near Simferopol, Pro-Ukrainian Telegram Channel Crimean Wind reported.The Akron Chemical Plant in the Russian city of Veliky Novgorod was hit in the drone attack, with smoke seen rising from the site, Telegram channel Exilenova+ reported.Reuters reported on Dec. 9 that Russia's Syzran oil refinery halted operations on Dec. 5 after sustaining damage in a Ukrainian drone attack.Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying it carried out the operation to "reduce the military and economic potential of the Russian aggressor."Meanwhile, the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, one of Russia's five largest, was struck in a drone attack overnight on Dec. 12, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed later the same day."This is one of the largest refineries of the occupiers, which is capable of processing from 15 million tons of oil and oil condensate per year. It is involved in providing the armed forces of the Russian invaders," the General Staff said in a Telegram post.pic undetermined location in occupied Crimea late on Dec. 13, 2025
>>64633121>I remember encountering outlandish claims like this from RUSIbullshit>Are they interviewing russian MOD?no, they interview Ukrainian MOD
>>64633108how much of this equipment can be repaired?
>>64633120go back to math classit's $10-12 million total cost for the strike
>>64627785>Uralvagonzavod is slashing workforce and ordersof their civilian plant, not military
>>64633167there's no civilian or military parts
>>64633175>there's no civilianhttps://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4056238-russia-cuts-workforce-even-at-defense-industry-plants-ccd.html>The Russian corporation Research and Production Corporation UralVagonZavod OJSC has announced a 10% workforce reduction and plans by February 2026 to scale down its metallurgical and railcar assembly production, as well as its administrative staff and certain auxiliary services.those aren't military railcars they're talking about here
>>64633153>how much of this equipment can be repaired?Some initially for instance at the beginning the Ukrainians did not finish hits on large and medium artillery with shaped charges on the barrels by drone but they do by routine now, most of the MLRS, AA, MBT and APC hits are catastrophic and completed by a wipeout hit if they are abandoned. The aircraft and boats and helis are just gone. Not much is the answer. The cars and tankers are erased. Russia already had to beg artillery off North Korea and a lot of what they have left in reserve has had the barrels removed. Interestingly enough Russia started to auction off Bettefield wrecks as scrap metal"Russia’s Ministry of Defense has begun auctioning off dozens of destroyed tanks and armored vehicles as scrap metal, according to The Moscow Times on May 29.The equipment, damaged during its war in Ukraine, has been listed on the state procurement platform “GIS Torgi” and stored in the Rostov region, near the Ukrainian border.The auction includes T-80, T-72B3, and T-62 tanks, along with infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and MT-LB multipurpose armored tractors.Officially, the listings describe the lots as “ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal,” yet photos clearly show destroyed combat vehicles with visible battle damage."The interesting bit is most of that looks like it might be at least as good as what is left in much of their vanishing reserve stores yet it's not being repaired, it is being sold off as scrap.
>>64633204Three lots have been offered, priced between approximately $38,800 and $53,300 each. According to the documents, the vehicles are located in the village of Petrovka, Myasnikovsky district, Rostov region. Buyers must have a scrap-processing license and remove the items at their own expense.The publication The Moscow Times noted that the sale marks one of the first times the Russian military has publicly auctioned wrecked combat vehicles from the war in Ukraine.
>>64633190they're not making military railcars so ok?
>>64633204>>64633211Photos attached to the listings show hulls and tracked components in what the documentation describes as “satisfactory condition.” Observers on Russian social media commented that the vehicles appear in no worse condition than many seen at Russia’s storage bases.
>>64633218so as I said, they're cutting jobs mainly from the civilian railcar division of UVZ
>>64633227there's no separate civilian division in UVZ
>>64633230>there's no separate civilian division in UVZwronghttps://www.rostec.ru/media/news/uralvagonzavod-pokazal-rekordnuyu-chistuyu-pribyl-za-vsyu-istoriyu-korporatsii/in the past, civilian production in UVZ ranged from 15 to 40% of its activities.are you done being a retard?
>>6463315710 out of 100 is 10%, which means a successful bombing for every 10 drones, which cost $20-80k each. 20-80 times 10 is $200-800. You're welcome, I'm happy to help you work through the word problems in your math homework whenever you need it.
>>64633267>out of 100>20-80 times 10 is $200-800yeah, because the 90 other drones returned to Ukraine under their own power?it's okay, mummy loves you as much as she loves her normal children
>>64633289Nta but are you fucking retarded?
>>64633117At no place in time 100/100 were hitting. And the point is to hit targets. As long as your production and budget can keep up with targets, thats absolutely acceptable.>>64633120The point is that even if the destroyed segment only costs 10 mio, which it doesnt, it blocks or slows output until the part has been replaced, which might take years. So the damage caused is measured in 100s of mln or even bln USD.>>64633121It's reasonable to assume that you would need 3-5 missiles on average between EW and AD effects to destroy a radar. Thats still a highly economical exchange.>up to 10If the target is very high value and heavily defended, that number is absolutely to be expected. Its not like you cannot shoot down or degrade the targeting of ATACMS. You just need more missiles and corresponding production capacity. If you produce 10 times the missiles the enemy produces radars, its a non issue, considering how expensive high end radars are.
>>64633414I mean the real takeaway I'm getting so far - haven't read the paper thoroughly yet - is that we need to give the Ukes more missiles for TZD>the damage caused is measured in 100s of mln or even bln USD.take the lesson from Operation Tidal Wave and the RAF bombing offensive; it's difficult to estimate the battlefield impact of strategic bombing. it may take years for effects to be felt downstream
>>64632902It means that 94% of them don't do any damage whatsoever to the targeted enemy forces. Their unit cost also skyrocketed to horrendous levels. Those were the two main reasons US stopped supplying them to Ukraine. They don't work, and they can't be mass-produced cost-effectively.Crazy to see someone still be in denial about excalibur's failure at this point. That horse was already beaten to death in 2024.
>>64633489I think it also hints at current and future procurement needs. You will need very deep magazines and a good high low mix of LO munitions (still need heaps) and really spammable low end stuff. I am talking millions per year type spammable. The way forward seems to be an absolutely overwhelming opening barrage of 10s of thousands of missiles to degrade enemy AD and then a constant stream of spam so they never get back up on their feet.As you can expect the enemy to come to the same conclusions, AD will have to be expanded to crazy levels to deal with the opening barrage.
>>64633533Ivan...russian ad is complete shit. That's why so many drones and missiles get through it and your refineries are burning.
>>64633393nta but math isn't your strong point either.
interesting.According to Russian MoD they actually only got worse at intercepting drones.Numbers of drones launched increased over the year but shot down remains almost flat
>>64634530Is that only drones shot down or also drones defeated through EW?
>>64634560"drones intercepted", probably counts defeat through all means
>>64633009>>64633533[citation needed]ANd I mena an actual one, not you regurgitating old-ass zigger propaganda for the milliontht time.
>>64634570NTA, but there was one cited instance where AFU gave feedback that American GPS-guided munitions' hit rate appeared to be 6%. it was not stated how often this happened. most likely it's a one-time figure, like the "Russia fired 50,000 shells a day" which happened that one day, but then ziggers and retards started trumpeting the figure as if they shoot that number every day of the warso it's a big stretch to say that all GPS-guided munitions are currently experiencing 6% hit rates. hell no.
>>64634570If you really must tenderize the horse's corpsehttps://www.businessinsider.com/us-gave-up-sending-ukraine-100k-excalibur-shells-hit-targets-2024-5
