Are there any videos/articles that predicted, either horribly or eerily well, how Russia's war in Ukraine would go? Especially concerning the military campaign.This popped up in my feed for some reason and think it made some good predictions but completely missed the drone warfare aspect and overestimated how well the Russians would do, but atleast captured the fact that it wouldn't be over in days/weeks like some did during the time. https://youtu.be/Z9c_HhpvBpg?si=23WNr_6ZRtzhcFqM
>>64725916Not OP, but I would like to add the Moldova was VERY much a part of the Kremlin's initial plans.
>>64725916Red Storm Rising
>>64725916Red Storm Rising, Tom Clancy.While it paints the Soviet navy as way too competent, its eerie how accurately the Soviet army is depicted;-Outside of a handful of people almost no one knows that the attack is real until it’s happening -Tanks gets lost and run out of fuel, Soviet generals pass entire destroyed tank companies on the way too the front-Soviet troops in Iceland rape and murder women-After a comparatively tiny breakthrough the Soviets stop in their tracks and cannot advance further
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OutvYSl_TLc# is the closest thing I can think of. Predicted high casualties and a coup attempt.
>>64725954>>64725991>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising>Soviet-bloc tank divisions find an early advantage, however, in their authoritarian command structure: all Warsaw Pact forces have been trained to speak Russian (as the Soviets have deliberately put themselves in command of the Warsaw Pact), while NATO tank crews find themselves confused at crucial moments as to who is in charge and how to speak to one another. NATO armies are repeatedly forced to give ground, though they resist bitterly nonetheless.I dunno why but I thought of this when reading it lmao
>>64725991>While it paints the Soviet navy as way too competentDid the Tu-22M fleet even have launchable decoys in the 80's?
>>64725916Obviously didn't get everything right, such as thinking the war would be short, but the frog puppet's analysis was pretty darn good overall.
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>>64725916Only threads here/k/ Predicted the invasion would get stalled at mariupol when it hit motivated Ukranian resistence and become bogged down while Ukraine mobililised and rolled back the Russians a bit predicted by vukovar anon and a few others, most others thought it would become protracted guerrilla warfare instead and a quagmire for Russia/k/ was the only place that got it right.Spooks and ex mercs on here lurking.
>>64725916There was an excellent write up by an American Officer (retired) on Russian capability prior to the beginning based upon a Russian and Ukrainian NCO joint training excersice before the war. The Ukies were all serious about passdowns and mentoring juniors and the Russians were all about scarfing cigs and liquor to bring home. Just relentlessly incisive analysis. I saw it here, but no link.
>>64726169>joint training excersice*it was held in Ukraine
>>64726169>>64726173Reading picrel gave me decent insight into the rot present at the heart of Russian society and culture. Do recommend.
>>64725916Rudy WIAH predicted that Russia would steamroll Ukraine
>>64726268I used to watch his videos. He is legitimately schizo.
>>64725991>-Tanks gets lost and run out of fuelThats taken straight from the Czechoslovakian adventure 68' Never mind getting lost, those retards did send units without markings (because the paint did run out) to a position with properly marked troops, it was legit a wonder they didn't have more friendly fire incidents
>>64725916>either horribly or eerily wellOnly the Cassandras are worth discussing, the lolcows and reformers who got everything wrong are either corrupt/blackmailed/schizos or just irrelevant or both.
>>64725916From the rules for the table top wargame "Fist Full of TOWs" published in 2000. Doesn't specifically reference Ukraine, but is very accurate in describing systemic issues in the Soviet/Russian army.
>>64726296I read picrel. The fucking Soviet Army couldn't even clear one particular valley of Afghan regulars the entire time they were there.
>>64726296iirc correctly the backfire raid in Red Storm Rising was literally gamed out by Tom Clancy with a friend using Harpoon on tabletop. But he even mentioned that the game mechanics ignore morale, training, readiness etc. and just wanted an exciting battle that was still within the realm of possibility. My point is crunchy tabletop .mil games are kino
Lol you people are still obsessed with this? That war is like 5 years old, it's time to move on
>>64726326>you people still obssessed with this?uh, yeah? Where do you think you are, /k/ Peace & Harmony?
>>64726326>3 day SMO>Now 5 year SMO>Please understandTruly a nation with face culture.
>>64726288Same shit happened during Soviet invasion of Poland in '39.They suffered huge losses in armor, most of them from tanks simply breaking down and running out of fuel
>>64725916Defence24.pl had an article a day after the invasion that stated Russian armour will be decimated by drones, to this day I regret not writing down the author, because he predicted total Russian failure and I thought this was an insane take
>>64726268common whatifalthist L
>>64726620Every time I see this it's impressive how wrong this shill is, including the fact that Russians tried turning Kharkiv into a crater.
>>64726620
>>64726620>>64726651Although I do love me some zigger predictions (my fav is pic rel) I'd prefer someone who, with their best intentions, tried to predict this but either utterly failed or was scarily right.
>>64726768I remember in 2020-2022 on 2ch(ru 4chan) there was a thread called "In search of Ukrainian MIC". Sarcastically, of course, implying that only the great russians have not lost the Soviet sacred knowledge. There was a lot of stuff, some guy posted from inside one of Ukraine's most important factories. Iirc around January 2022(or the first ru military exercise that was a bit earlier) there was a massive argument about how an actual full scale war would turn out. Russians, unsurprisingly, believed that Ukraine would fold extremely quickly. And there was anon that said something like "each of our cities bigger than 10k people will be 100 times worse than Grozny. Thousands and thousands of Grozny's all the way up to Kyiv ". To this day, this is the most precise prediction I've ever seen. He was only off by two zeros-one on the town size, and one on how many times worse than Grozny it's gonna be
>>64727015>and one on how many times worse than Grozny it's gonna beI mean there's been atleast 4-5 urban sieges that have been Grozny level or worse.
>>64726108The novel did portray the shit accuracy of 1980s air to air missiles correctly.
>>64726169I'm tempted to say that was by Gen. Mark Hertling. It's been a while, but I think he posted RU/UKR NCO observations on Twitter around the time of the invasion, followed by ad hoc urban resistance instructions that some Ukrainians translated and reposted when the doom convoy looked like it was on its way to Kyiv and they were handing out AKs in the city. Might be misremembering, was following a lot of retired officers at the time.
>>64725916Plenty of the analysts I've followed predicted how it would shift to the war of attrition we're at right now, if the EU and US refuse to come up with an actual plan (which we unfortunately still don't have)
>>64725916EVERYONE expected russia to do better theres a reason the west offered zelensky evacuation on the first days. in fact the talk during the first months was about how well the ukranian resistance in russian controlled territory will perform. binkov is ok and tries to keep everything reasonable but he presents the topics superficially. i suspect he is a journalist in real life
>>64726296I love how this analysis still has to glaze them a bit because tankies had such a grip in academics that you just weren't allowed to say that "yes soviet military sucked hard the end" even in 00's
>>64726060Fuckin' masterful
>>64728180>I'm tempted to say that was by Gen. Mark Hertling.Damn, you're good!>the Russian arrival was onerous, and their soldiers seemed much more interested in going to the post exchange—the subsidized on-base general store—than in learning leadership and tactical skillsSkip down a bit (long) to 'Different Directions'.https://www.thebulwark.com/p/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armiesBut yeah, he called it.>Apr 10, 2022
>>64729045>While Ukraine’s democracy is still addressing issues of government corruption, those violations pale in significance and scope to the embezzlement, graft, and corruption of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his predecessor Anatoly Serdyukov, and Vladimir Putin himself. Colonel-General Chirkin had, if nothing else, proved that he was acting in line with the role models in his senior leadership.>For all their bellicose rhetoric and Victory Day parades on Red Square, I sometimes wonder if Putin and Shoygu know the difference between the two types of armies. The Ukrainians sure do.
>>64725916Is there a fate worse than being a sane zigger, screaming in the wind, trying to state the obvious? https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
>>64729045>he proclaimed that I was lucky to be one of the few Americans to see a Russian T-72 up close.>With tongue firmly in cheek, I told the translator to tell the colonel that having fought in Desert Storm, I had seen many T-72s—but none of them still had the turret attached. The interpreter hesitated and asked me if I really wanted to say that to his colonel.>I watched my new friend’s face turn red, but then transition to a slight grin. “Those were the export versions we gave the Iraqis.”
>>64725916Alexander Nevzorov is a rather mercenary figure, sensationalist and corrupt, but he had enough experience as a war correspondent to come off the zigger revanchism in the 1990s (he was once one). He made documentary films in Chechnya and some other places and then directed a war movie based on them called Purgatory:https://youtu.be/1QoNOyQFJ0o
>>64726060Meant to quote
>>64725916BTW By Sunday the 3 days (tm) special needs operation will surpass the duration og WWII Eastern front. How are you going to celebrate?https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=22&m1=6&y1=1941&d2=8&m2=5&y2=1945&ti=onhttps://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=24&m1=2&y1=2022&d2=11&m2=1&y2=2026&ti=on
>>64729538>How are you going to celebrate?Just yesterday, I managed to find a half-gallon of Khor vodka from Ukraine for cheap. So I'll probably have some of that. Some Anon in a previous thread mentioned that Georgia has some decent sparkling wine you can buy in the States.
>>6472951510/10
Wasn't Binkov the one who predicted that Ukraine's army would get trapped in the East and destroyed with the fall of Kyiv?>>64726278I used to watch Isaac Arthur and of all people he decided to do a joint video with WIAH about the future of space colonisation. It was extremely painful. Even basic facts were wrong, he didn't even skim wikipedia or think to look at how the history of space has worked out.
There was a russian comedian/actor/opposition member in 2021 that made a video how russia was going to invade Ukraine and how it would absolutely be a clusterfuck that in the end would end up with Putin asking the americans to EXFIL him to safety from Moscow when shit goes sideways. Can't find the video though
>>64729920Found it, it was Nezorov.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OutvYSl_TLc
>>64729912>Wasn't Binkov the one who predicted that Ukraine's army would get trapped in the East and destroyed with the fall of Kyiv?Predicted when? That's a meaningless statement without saying when. I would have guessed as much before the invasion or on the first day. The residents of Kyiv were filling up molotovs to throw them off their roofs on parading Russian columns. I think the video in the OP is prescient in some of its analysis for something published on Jan 26, 2022.I also used to watch Isaac Arthur and still do too, best free sleep medication there is, counting fermi padaox possibilites like sheep.
>>64726268I actually thought the same at the time but it was because I took the official figure of a 1million strong army at face-value only to discover Russians are only just now fielding 700k in the field. There definitely was a window of time where Russia could have won quickly but they blew it with a bluff offensive that was not prepared for the war it was thrown into.
>>64726069We seriously need an updated version of this for 2029!
>>64726268Last time I checked he made a video about how PUCCIA was going to collapse in 5 years about 2 years ago, although in his recent podcast about the Vatnigger Onion he said he no longer believed it happen or PUCCIA could be defeated through economic means, I think it's mostly his Trump fanboyism talking, although he still recognizes PUCCIA is a failed shithole and monke an asshole who squandered all his previous gains so he is above the groypers and turdies on that one.
>>64729912>predicted that Ukraine's army would get trapped in the East and destroyed with the fall of Kyiv?To be fair, that was clearly Russia's war plan.
>>64728846To be fair to puppetman if every video was "the US wins instantly because it turned out the opposition was retarded and lying about their competence and equipment specs for decades" it would get a little redundant. I remember over a hundred DCS nerds created a simulation of a carrier group attacking a Syrian target protected by a competent S-400 battery and attendant support personnel. Two scenarios were run, one utilizing everything but the f-35 and one with the f-35. The former resulted in between one and two dozen US combat loses but the battery was suppressed and the targets destroyed. The later resulted in the destruction of the battery and targets with zero US loses. Since we still don't know what a competently operated S-400 battery is capable of and are unlikely to ever learn it remains interesting but funny in hindsight. IRL S-400 batteries are operating at 1/10 their theoretical capabilities, now much of that is due to Russia lying about specs and how much is vodka I don't know.
>>64729939holy shit
>>64726296Started reading this and its amazing how little of it seems to have changed>Soldiers lied to about deployments>Friendly fire from artillery and air>Units hate each other>Conscripts and volunteers bullied for the first six months>Bodies thrown into bags that are just left out in the open for the body disposal team to collect whenever>Rotten and mouldy food given to the soldiers>Author is away from his unit for a good while and no-one cares>General disorganisation across every level
>>64729939Love me some Nevzorov. He uses the flowery language in a brutal way. His daily vids on YouTube are a bit long for my liking but sometimes I have some time.Apparently he also has insiders on both sides giving him early intel one news cycle before mainstream media. Also apparently he has decent gore all the time on his telegram but I also don't have time for that
>>64725916Half the problem is that Russia's defeat was mostly based on "unpredictables". I use air quotes because, in hindsight, they were quite predictable it's just nobody really thought Russia would be that corrupt and stupid.>selling their own fuel because they thought it was a training exercise and not an invasion and thus a perfect time to griftA predictable unpredictable.>Market Garden 2: Slave Boogaloo failing due to poor SEADPretty predictable, yet equally unpredictable.>Russia's next gen whatevers not matteringPredictable, yet also unpredictable.There are a million other examples, but the overall point needs to be that everyone knew Russia was in a bad spot, but of course they'd sort themselves out before they did anything stupid - right? Right?
>>64729045Great read, thanks.>>64730689>Russia's next gen whatevers not matteringThat was actually a pretty predictable predictable.
>>64730689It's more like Ukraine was viewed as a little Russia in competence. Russia was bad, yes, but the prevailing opinion was that Ukraine was just as bad, but smaller. The level of resistance took everybody by surprise. Nobody was hurriedly proclaiming they would send aid to Ukraine, those came after it was clear the war would stick around. In any case, by day 3 the stuck convoy meant most knowers knew it was going to be a stalemate at best for Russia, and only a miracle that never happened would be able to get the momentum rolling again.
>>64726069Since when are Canadians known for being angry? Or Americans for demanding everything be done by the book, for that matter?
>>64726069>as Canadian as a GermanWut
>>64730689really you can trace this all back to not full on invading in 2014 and instead giving Ukraine 10 years to get its shit semi together.Putin sniffing his own farts and letting his government be so utterly corrupt that every level of intel was being distorted was just the cherry on top
>>64730850Hard disagree, but for a very specific reason. The way Putin believed he could reconquer former Soviet territory is by nibbling a little bit every ten years to avoid a NATO counter response. 2008 intervention in Georgia, the 2014 intervention in Donbass, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine are all roughly 6-8 years apart from one another. Russia's intention was that 2014 would weaken Ukraine and set them up for a 2022 decapitation strike.Of course, all 2014 did was teach Ukraine how to fight a war and unfuck itself. Doh!
>>64730835>Or Americans for demanding everything be done by the book, for that matter?Watch the NFL
>>64730835>Since when are Canadians known for being angry?They're known for their warcrimes and love of hookers. They politeness hides some seriously fucked up issues.
>>64730861To add, I think the 6-10 year distance is significant because it roughly corresponds to US presidential term limits. By spacing the reclamations out by this period, you're only ever dealing with one US administration and so each one will always try to reset the US-Russia relationship and push for concessions. People forget that Bush and Putin go along well, and during Obama there was the "reset button" gaffe. Russia thinks it can play the US like a fiddle. Maybe it can, maybe it can't, but that's the strategy and identifying it is the first step to undermining it.
>>64730861>>64730875So what was scheduled for 2028-2030? Narva? Moldova?
>>64730861>>64730875A nibble has to be very small for salami slicing tactics to work. If you want to kill someone and your strategy is to cut their finger off, walk away, then go go back and stab them to death later, that makes no sense on any level. They'll be vastly more pissed off than if they were lying dead, and their friends will be nearly as pissed off as if they were lying dead. That's just indecisive warfare and Sun Tzu would cane your ass with bamboo for not killing the opponent in the first place.In 2012 Obama was laughing in a debate that his opponent was talking about Russia like it was still the cold war. I don't think Russian foreign policy after that point matches the model of carefully managed international relations with deliberate timing. I think Putin has just been figuring out by degrees that he can get away with more and more, and that his state survives despite sanctions, and that the sanctions the west has left become less and less, and getting bolder and bolder until finally he found out.
>>64726069lol
