huh?
>>64757460Ayatollah might be fleeing the country
>>64757460Trump, if you fucker make me keep awake all night AGAIN, I'll swear...
Iran closed their airspace because of the civil unrest. Now the flights must go around the country.
the absolute madman
>>64757473how does that help curb protests?
>>64757488No COD airdrops.
>>64757488>how does that help curb protests?I dunno how does killing thousands of protesters and arresting tens of thousands more (while fast-tracking their execution) help with the>currency crisis, water crisis, power crisis, food crisis, inflation crisis etc
>>64757488Harder for spooks to get in, harder for people to smuggle footage out, and the last fucking thing they need right now is ANOTHER airliner shootdown with Trump breathing down their necks like this.
>>64757518Iran already is collapsing without cia. Tons of ethnic and religious tension
>>64757460Maybe domestic flight?
>>64757526>religious tension>in a 99% muslim country :/
>>64757529>he doesnt know
>>64757526That's not an "everything is astroturf" accusation, I know we've got that one retard hanging around here. Point being that glowies look at a situation like that and think "opportunity", regardless of wither they set it up themselves or not.
>>64757529you're not even a shia, innit
>>64757529
>>64757472NOTHING BAD EVER HAPPENS TO THE AYATOLLAHS
>>64757460Give it to me straight /k/. What are the chances the regime collapses and some American shill just as brutal takes up power?
>>647575511% chance of collapse0% chance an American shill comes to power
>>64757514Simple, by killing large swaths of their populace they reduce demand for water, power, and food while freeing up currency supplies. Since the unemployed are most likely to take part in protests they're also reducing competition for jobs and maximizing the employment rate. We should begin seeing tangible results once they kill a few hundred thousand but they're going to need a few million at least to see long-term effects.
>>64757551>some American shill ... up power?Small>the regime collapses and some ... just as brutal takes up power?Pretty good.
>>64757488Means that anything flying through their airspace is probably a hostile aircraft which means that if local ADN sees anything, they're not blowing away an airliner by accident which would really give Trump causi belli to go in and smack everything that's holding the regime together. Of course, as we found out this... summer? fall?, they're not going to see any US strike package if it's coming anyway, but it probably makes them feel better about it.
>>64757551Minimal
>>64757551Nah, this is going to go Syria-style; too many special interest groups, no clear replacement for the system that everyone will go along with. If it's not happening already, then they'll be laying the groundwork for it, getting organized and securing gear to be ready for the next time.
>>64757472>babe, it's time to ruin your sleep schedule watching strikes that end after 2 hours and end up changing nothing (again(again))
>>64757529>>in a 99% muslim countryheh
>>64757575Azerbaijan will grow larger!
>>64757529There are tons of conflict within islam between Shia and Sunni, but also withing aquidas like athari, ashari and maturidi. Even with madhabs willing to slime eachother out over some teaching from Imam Al shafii, plus the Arabs and bulochs and kurds want independence
>>64757460Gotta prevent them from shooting the wrong plane like the last time.
>>64757636lmao how "them" could mean either side in this case
>>64757575>Syria-styleNeat!Time for the The Persian People’s Front vs. The People’s Front of Persia
>>64757529You're so close to getting it anon. You're so close. Take my hand, and let me walk you across the bridge: Iran Islamic in governance, but is majority secular in culture (like it was before the revolution) with a sizable Christian minority (see Holy Virgin Mary Subway Station). Muslim crowds don't burn down mosques anymore than Christian crowds burn down a church.It's 99% Muslim in the same way 99% of North Koreans support Supreme Leader.
>>64757529If there is one thing mullahs hate more than anything is other mullahs (with a different idea of who, if any, was the grand pedophile's successor). Not to mention that Iran is a hodgepodge of different ethnicities (Azeri, Kurds, Turks, Balochi, etc) that, naturally, despise each other.
Unironically, what happens if Iran just collapses Syria-style overnight?
>>64757680We can return to looney tunes cobbled together weapon system kino and drive by execution nasheeds
My heart goes out to the Iranian people in this trying time. And my door is always open to any Iranian baddies that want to start a new life in a free country.Actual humans tho, not goats.
>>64757680Realistically? Ethnic line fractures, possibly land grabs from certain neighbors, and, once things snowball enough that they can't be stopped, Israel moves against any remaining Islamic Republic and IRGC power.
>>64757682>all praise Hashut and the holy hell cannon
>>64757680Just to make it clear about >>64757575, I meant the bulk of Syria, not the Going of Assad. If that scenario happens, I doubt it's going to be as relatively quick to settle down as Syria has; they haven't had a decade of warcriming the shit out of each other to get (almost) all of the special interest groups willing to settle. I could be wrong, but this isn't a Clankening-style unified populace with a generally aligned view of the direction they want to go.Incidentally, for anyone interested, ISW put out a special today, listing things that we have and haven't seen:https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/indicators-of-iranian-regime-instability/Most importantly to me, the two big indicators we're missing at this time are signs of the protestors becoming organized at scale and across distance, nor have we seen the upper echelons of the government breaking ranks. The former is a lead-in to armed conflict at scale, while the latter would substantially weaken the government. There's been signs at the trigger-puller lever, but in this situation where a Watergate Tapes-level leak could irreparably damage the state, the people in a position to do that haven't yet. That doesn't mean those fractures don't exist, we had a lot of chatter about their disagreements on foreign policy in the wake of the 12 Days War, but they are holding the line on this thus far.
>>64757661>but is majority secular in culture (like it was before the revolution) wiIt was notAlso there is no sizeable Christian minority
>>64757529you must be 18 years old to post
>>64757680Iran won't collapse The opposition believes the meme peaceful democracy meme and most of the "riots" are peaceful. Right now there is almost 1M of people protesting in Teheran and they are just... Singing and dying.You need an armed opposition first.Remember maidan? It worked at the end because they dropped the peaceful crap after weeks of being killed.
The Iranian government is structured to survive domestic opposition. The possibility of a (counter)revolution is why they have parallel armed forces. The existence of the IRGC is enough threat to keep regular army officers from defecting, because they do not have a monopoly on organized forces in their area.
>>64757575What about the shah? Isn’t he fairly popular at the moment?
>>64757729>It was notLook at the way Iranian women dressed prior to 1979. There is absolutely zero Quranic justification for it. At the risk of moving the goal posts, I think it's at least fair to say that even if they were Muslim, many were Muslim in name only (effectively secular) or adhered far less faithfully to doctrine that today.>Also there is no sizeable Christian minorityReally? Is that why:Christianity is declared a minority religion in their constitution,Holy Mary Metro Station was built in Tehran,HMMS features a depiction of Mary with the Holy Spirit,And Tehran is home to St. Sarkis Cathedral?Who is this made for of? It's certainly not the Muslims. I guess it depends on what you mean by "sizable" but there's obviously something there.
>>64757788Put it down for a solid maybe. He is a figure of some influence, and it's hard to quantify, but my gut says "not that much".
>>64757529Christianity is the fastest growing religion in Iran right now
>>64757786they also elect their leader like the Catholic Church elects a Pope (different system obvi but same idea) so a decapitation strike wont work.
>>64757810>Look at the way Iranian women dressed prior to 1979. There is absolutely zero Quranic justification for it. At the risk oThat was only in rich parts of theran the vast majority of Iran dressed like they do now>Who is this made for of? It's certainly not the Muslims. I guess it depends on what you mean by "sizable" but there's obviously something there.Its made by armenians, but countries like qatar and uae actually have a sizeable Christian minority at 15% not at 1% like Iran does
>>64757832Hopefully that changes soon, in sha Allah. Make Iran Sunni Again
>>64757460It's about time they dropped that arab supremacist religion and de-arabized themselves.
>>64757864They reached their peak with that religion and why would you throw away 1200 years of history like that, it's retarded
>>64757864Ismail was doing some of that with his imposition of the Shia heresy. It helped set Persia apart from the Ottomans and Arabs
>>64757868>times pre-Islam Persians conquered the Jews: 1>times post-Islam Persians conquered the Jews: 0
>>64757575The obnoxious shit about Syria is that when it started, they pretty much went "Okay Assad, you can just go to Russia and we can create a transitional government with the rest of it". Then he refused and fought a war for 14 years that wrecked his country... only to run off to Russia anyways. If he had just done that in 2011 it would have saved us a lot of blood and violence, and they could have reformed the system with what they had rather than a complete change of government to islamic rebel groups.
>>64757886They were at their peak when Sunni and had some of the best thinkers not only in Islam but all of theology
>>64757892Assad was horrible he helped fund isis, and was a zigger that killed Ukranians and helped the refugee crisis
>>64757613Inshallah brozzer
>>64757472I SLEPT THROUGH MADURO’S CAPTURE DON’T MAKE ME DEAL WITH THIS AGAIN. I HAVE COLLEGE PAPERS TOMORROW DAMNIT
>>64757698>Actual humans tho, not goats.Faggot. You disappoint us
>>64757930Do both, have a news stream up on your phone while writing your papers and slamming energy drinks
>>64757536>glowies look at a situation like that and think "opportunity", regardless of wither they set it up themselves or not.this
>>64757892>>64757896I have to wonder how much was Assad and how much was the russians forcing him to stay?
>>64757460>nothing happenedBraaapTypical trump
