Had Shoigu and Gerasimov been captured as it seems the goal and then Wagner had actually went all the way to Moscow, could they have succeeded in overthrowing Putin? Or was it a lost cause from the beginning?
Task Force 141 could have done it in the blink of an eye.
>Shoigu and Gerasimov been capturedWe've seen plenty of high ranking vatniks get killed, I doubt either of them were actually doing anything meaningful to smooth operations that some else couldnt have been promoted into>actually went all the way to Moscow, could they have succeeded in overthrowing Putin?Basically nil chance of that. Putin wasnt going to be waiting around for them, and the Wagner convoy had too few numbers to realistically seize the capital.
>>64757608dont know but it was worth a shot, anything is possible when ziggers are involved
>>64757618>the Wagner convoy had too few numbers to realistically seize the capitalTheh BTFOd all resistance that came against them on the way.
>>64757608I think they were in with a shot, the Russian military along the way was quite sluggish and it really only came down to a handful of VND dorks with jersey barriers and Tiger trucks between Moscow and the convoy. Problem was, Priggo had a family and if he wanted to see them again not cut up with a chainsaw in some FSB sex dungeon, he had to chill the fuck out and stop it
>>64757608He didn't have a large enough force to take Moscow. He was banking on either more troops joining him along the way (not alot did) or the Moscow troops not putting up a fight. When it was clear they were loyal to Putin he was screwed. The most interesting part was that the troops along the way made no attempt to stop him but they also didn't join him. In Russia the best move is to not take a side.
>>64757629I don't understand why he didn't send them out of the country into hiding beforehand. Did he think it would arouse suspicion? And how could he NOT know they'd threaten his family if he did this? Did he think his march would be so rapid and successful it didn't matter? Just a really bizarre series of events.
>>64757608Not really. There's no clear #2 to lead the nation, and there wasn't really a step 2 after overthrow Monke (maybe some bayonet sodomy?).
>>64757633Yeah there was a lot of moving parts and some which didn't move at all, almost seemed like a bit of an ad-hoc side mission in terms of the planning and there was plenty of telegraphing (literally) that he was fed up and going to go kick Shoigoo in the balls. All the meetings with Russian generals and dudes down in Rostov.Its pretty fucking weird overall, but Russians are pretty fucking weird to begin with so logic might not be much in play!
>>64757633i think he felt he had to act immediately . probably not enough time
>>64757637the number 2 would be priggy himself. the war would already be over if he succeeded, i dont see him continuing a losing battle
>>64757624Hauling ass down on backcountry roads is a bit different than seizing the capital as far as what you're likely to encounter in terms of military forces.
>>64757684they shot down every bird that came towards them. the problem would reall be the roadblocks slowing them down and buying the mod time
>>64757608>WAGNER COUP: COULD IT HAVE SUCCEEDED?No. The Russian government had been planning to dismantle Wagner for years. Russia pointlessly sacrificing a bunch of men in Ukraine (which encouraged Wagner to start the coup) merely accelerated the process.
>>64757688From what I've seen, Russian air losses were somewhere between one to six helos (most Mi-8s) and an Il-22. Considering the amount of "nobody knows what the fuck is going on" that was happening, its not a particular surprise those wandered into range of Wagners SAM systems. With probably another full day to prep Moscow and shuttle in defenders, the chances of the few thousand men in the convoy of doing much of anything is slim
>>64757608It was a lost cause because Putin was not in moscow
>>64757608>Or was it a lost cause from the beginning?This
>>64757726he was but he left
I think we'll never know. Like what might have happened is Wagner takes Moscow and it's seen as enough of a strategic blunder for Putin that it causes a domino effect of defections. But the problem is Prigozin's ultimate goal was to "warn the czar" of corruption in his military command, not a full on coup, but of course Putin knew and didn't care. So what could have happened is Prigozin was surrounded by rebel mobniks who look to him to unfuck the Ukraine war and the overall situation in Russia, and somehow Prigozin is the most loyal man there.It was always going to be rigged from the start against Prigozin because Putin was never on his side and Prigozin was never against Putin per se, but it was definitely a "stopping at the Rubicon" moment.
>>64757618>Wagner convoy had too few numbers to realistically seize the capital.There was no one to defend Moscow by the time the convoy stopped though
>SHOIGU!>GERASIMOV!>WHERE ARE THE FUCKING DRONES?!
>COULD IT HAVE SUCCEEDED?Easily. Not because they were good, smart or strong, but because the loyalist forces were passive and chose to look away. The normal army washed their hands away. The only ones whom could've have actually resisted were Rosgvardia (national guard, which at that point was mostly riot cops on steroids) and FSB spetsnaz, neither of which stand an actual chance in a fight. But the reality is that there wouldn't be even that big of a fight, since if they've entered Mosqueov retards would just cuck out or escape, as most higher ups did.
Were they really starved on purpose of ammo by the Russian government or was Priggy hoarding ammo for his coup or just exaggerating as an excuse to sperg out?
>>64757633He wasn't trying overthrow putin, just make the Tsar aware of how bad the situation was in the upper ranks of the MODBecause his goals were noble and not targeted at the Tsar, he assumed that he and his family would be safe
>>64757629Is his family still alive? I wouldn't be surprised if Putin offed 'em anyways, after Priggy was dead - make an example out of 'em kinda deal.
>>64757924So he thought Putin would see and sack Gerasimov and Shoigu and fix it huh? He should've known Putin can't tolerate anything he perceives to make him look like hes not in total control. When he made that speech saying they were traitors and would face consequences while not even naming Wagner or Prig that he might be fucked huh? Wonder what went through his mind...What I really wonder is why those dumbasses went back to Russia after they'd left for Africa. Like just dig in and fortify in Africa and never go back.
>>64757927Yeah and his son was sort of postured as his successor very briefly before Wagner was fully dissolved and his family has smartly went silent as far as I know. Probably threatened.
>>64757618>Basically nil chance of that. Putin wasnt going to be waiting around for them, and the Wagner convoy had too few numbers to realistically seize the capital.What if the forces there just sided with them when they showed up? Everywhere else they went, there was no resistance and locals cheered them. They show up in Moscow, everyone breathes a sigh of relief and thinks "thank God we have a way out", Prigozhin declares control over Russia, armed forces recognize him, he immediately declares that Putin was a traitor and a pest and Russia had no desire for Ukraine anyways and immediately signs a peace treaty with Ukraine setting things back to 2014.
>>64757941Their entire political mindset is that the Czar/Stalin/Putin is perfect and hypercompetent but misinformed and lied to, and the Boyars/Generals are evil and corrupt and incompetent. If only the czar knew...
>>64757927AFAIK they don't usually go for the children, e.g. they didn't kill the daughter of Sobchak or daughter of Nemtsov. But they did threaten to kill his kids, which was like the main reason Pringles man cucked out.
Ctrl f and not one mention of surovikin. Come on /k/.>>64757957That was the plan but the security forces got to Surovikin, and no other generals answered the call. Prigo understood he lacked the backing to take Moscow with just his convoy.
>>64757608They had a chance, they hesitated. They had the numbers and weapons, and the Kremlin was totally unprepared, and the military leadership totally incompetent. They were retarded thinking they could make a deal and just go back to before. When you go for the King you go all the way.
>>64758092Oh? And how many kings have you slain, you absolute nonce?
>>64757608We'll find out when he wakes up in 6 years, be patient.
>>64757629>Problem was, Priggo had a family and if he wanted to see them again not cut up with a chainsaw in some FSB sex dungeon, he had to chill the fuck out and stop itHe that hath wife and children hath given hostages to fortune; for they are impediments to great enterprise...>>64757927>Is his family still alive?good news: they arebad news: they wish they weren't>>64757990>they did threaten to kill his kids, which was like the main reason Pringles man cucked out.memes aside, that's probably just propaganda they threw out to dissuade future would-be coupists (coupers?)
>>64758109Punished Priggy
>>64758120>bad news: they wish they weren'tWhy? They're filthy rich
>>64758120Putin's not a tremendously smart man, but he's fucking vicious and that's really all that qualifies you for leadership in Russia. So if he's gotta poison, throw people out of windows, black dolphin gulag some treasonous ziggers to make the rest of them comply that's really just how the 'rule of law' works there. I mean we've made the jokes about Russia being 'Prison Rules' for years now but if you aim to be more than just the civilian rooster wagie, then you've got to work your way up the system shanking some niggas along the way to make your bones.>>64758184Wealth only exists so long as you're in the game and you're allowed to play. Right now Russia is garnishing savings from businesses that have a bit of cash about, maybe a bit late on their payments and are simply too rich to exist. I think it was only a couple of days ago a couple of places got rolled by the government for $26bil and all their assets nationalised 'because its the war damn it' and like the precious metals mining corps. They were trying to jump the fence and do the Fuckoffski maneuver before the balloon went up, they didn't jump high or fast enough and got caught
>>64757633Because his rebellion was more desperation after the Russian military had tried and failed to wipe out Wagner previously. There obviously was no planning on either side
>>64757920The Russian military is effectively the state force and a bunch of late-Roman-republic style paramilitaries owned or jointly owned by Russian oligarchs/politicians. Wagner had gotten too influential so they all conspired to fuck over Prigo
>>64758210Good memory, I'd forgotten the friendly airstrike banter the military did to him that got them all riled upSo it was probably that along with all the other fuckery that meant they needed to move now while they had the manpower and gear, motivation to go kick someone in the dick
>>64758102NTA, but I have slain many, and confirm his opinion.
I heard that Putin grabbed Piggy's children and did a video call to him, making Piggy call it off.
>>64757608I think the push on Moscow was a desperation move after missing Shoigu and Gerasimov, the best chance they had was taking them alive and when Putin didn't give a fuck making the point that Putin doesn't give a fuck.I think the goal was to show Putin's lack of loyalty to loyalists and make others turn against him.
>>64758256>how many Russian generals does it take to open a door?
